Basketball Analytics Article - Identifying some of ORL's issues

[Skin]

Ran into an article that identifies some of the issues hampering our team. Thought it was a good read and thought I'd share it. Thoughts???

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2016/02/12/trading-tobias-harris/

The pick and roll has become a staple of the modern NBA offense. Teams average between 16.7 and 31.6 possessions ended through a pick and roll scenario (according to NBA.com). The Orlando Magic fall squarely in the middle of the pack with 26.4 possessions per game committed to the pick and roll. This means that about 26 of the Magic’s possessions end with the ball-handler or roll man in the pick and roll taking a shot, turning the ball over, or getting fouled.

In other words, about 25% of the Magic’s offense is generated through a pick and roll.

As a significant portion of the modern NBA offense, it’s impossible for an offense to be highly efficient overall without being moderately efficient in the pick and roll.

Overall, Orlando scores 0.82 points per pick and roll possession. That ranks 27th in the NBA. (The Warriors are first at 0.95 points per pick and roll possession).

Orlando has been poor in both ball handling and rolling in the pick and roll. They rank 26th in ball-handler efficiency at 0.74 points per possession and 20th in roll man efficiency at 0.99.

Nikola Vucevic has been arguably the worst featured roll man in the NBA this season. Of the 36 players that have had at least 100 roll man possessions, only Milwaukee’s Mason Plumlee has been less efficient. Vucevic is averaging a very low 0.9 points per roll man possession. Plumlee is averaging 0.88.

Without a capable roll man most of the time, we wouldn’t expect Orlando’s ball handlers to be particularly efficient off screens. Most of them aren’t. But one of them has! Harris is averaging 0.88 points per possession. That is better than 28 of 30 NBA teams are averaging!

There are 139 NBA players with more than 50 ball handler possessions this season. For each player we took their points per ball handler possession and subtracted their teammates’ combined points per ball handler possession. The following table displays the top 15 in this difference.

Curry is a remarkable 0.38 points per possession better than his teammates. However, he is not underutilized. In fact, only one player in the top 15 can be considered grossly underappreciated in his team’s offensive design. Harris ranks 13th in the league. He is 0.15 points per ball hander possession better than his teammates. Yet, he only sees this type of possession once every 27.3 minutes. Everyone else in the top 15 sees ball handler possessions at least 3 times that rate.

Harris is arguably the most underutilized ball handler on pick and rolls in the NBA.

Orlando’s opponents are shooting 60.6% when within 6 feet of the hoop and when Orlando has a defender in position to defend the shot. That percentage ranks them 22nd among defenses in the NBA.

Vucevic is one of the NBA’s worst primary rim protectors. (By primary rim protector, I mean the player on the team that averages the most shots defended at the rim per game.) Vucevic is allowing opponents to shoot 59.2% against him at the rim. That’s 28th in the NBA among the 30 primary rim protectors.

Vucevic is holding opponents to a FG% that is 1.6 percentage points below what they would normally shoot. That sounds like he might be helping the defense, but it’s actually quite poor among big men, which usually decrease opponents’ FG% by a lot more.

Interior defense is a team activity. No one player is solely responsible for the team’s performance. However, a rim protector like Rudy Gobert or Whiteside can dramatically improve a team’s interior defense. In spite of not having the help behind him, Tobias Harris has been a remarkably good interior defender for the Magic this season.

Look at the table below which displays the numbers for the six Magic that have started at least 20 games this season and that play significant minutes with Vucevic. Harris’s defense has lowered opponents FG% from their usual 60.8% to 55.4%. By comparison, opponents are shooting at least 8 percentage points better against Oladipo or Payton than they usually shoot.

With Vucevic off the court, Orlando has a Defensive rating of 101.0 (per Basketball-Reference.com). A DRtg of 101 would be good enough for 2nd best in the NBA. Unfortunately, with Vucevic on the court, Orlando has a defensive rating of 108.2. It’s hard to imagine Orlando playing elite defense with Vucevic on the court.

[NBlue]

Interesting article. I guess my initial reaction is that some of the analytics requires as much art as science. The author indicates that Orlando is "squarely in the middle of the pack with 26.4 possessions per game committed to the pick and roll." I find this hard to believe. The Skiles offense generally eschews the PNR in favor of more of a motion approach. Sure, like every NBA team we use the PNR on occasion but I find it hard to believe we are in the middle of the pack on the use of a PNR. Accordingly, I wonder if possessions that are not true PNR opportunities are being counted as PNR? I'm not sure -- but I am concerned about the methodology.

My secondary reaction is -- woah, another article killing Vooch. Ouch.

[rcklsscognition]

Not even going to read it but I will say this, if my information is correct, Tobias is one of the better players on the team if not the best, one of the most efficient if not the most, and one of the worst utilized if not the worst. I like AG as much as anyone else, well, almost, but I think he has muddied the water here regarding Tobias. Tobias has projections that put him at the top of our team in efficiency, PPG, almost tops in rebounds, all while not requiring him to actually get better, but simply to get the ball more.

If I had to put one next to the other and trade one, I'd keep Gordon, because he's cheaper and by the same metrics will likely produce a fairly similar stat line to Harris while providing what appears to be better defense. I would never go out of my way to move Tobias though.

[mojosodope]

Not even going to read it but I will say this, if my information is correct, Tobias is one of the better players on the team if not the best, one of the most efficient if not the most, and one of the worst utilized if not the worst. I like AG as much as anyone else, well, almost, but I think he has muddied the water here regarding Tobias. Tobias has projections that put him at the top of our team in efficiency, PPG, almost tops in rebounds, all while not requiring him to actually get better, but simply to get the ball more.

If I had to put one next to the other and trade one, I'd keep Gordon, because he's cheaper and by the same metrics will likely produce a fairly similar stat line to Harris while providing what appears to be better defense. I would never go out of my way to move Tobias though.

I'm always surprised when I read posts this rational on here

[Gomagic44]

Until someone plays harris to his strengths and he looks as good as this article says, I don't believe it. I am not a harris fan, at all, and you have to take these things in context. Vuc also provides a crapton of our offense. Harris USED to, but no longer. Vuc's help defense is terribad, but his man D isnt as attrocious as many say. All in all, I'd trade them both today for the right deal.

[ORL_on_FIRE]

Tobias is extremely under utilized. He went from being our 1st scoring option to our 4th or 5th. Gotta make a change.

[SaberT]

Comparing DRTG with Vucevic on the court and off is not good use of statistics. Vucevic is a starter, plays against best lineup that the opponent can throw at. It's no wonder that starters of other teams are more effective than benches. Those two stats are not comparable.

That being said, I am not defending Vucevic. His softness forces him to shoot long twos late in the game, which hurts this team.

[MagicFan101]

I read through most of it and walked away with a very clear understanding as to why this guy is a lowly associate professor with only 2 publications (neither in high rated journals) to his name.

There are quite a few sweeping generalizations or assumptions one must accept as universal law before his statistics are useful. This is a silly fluff piece.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Fluff piece that could potential raise Harris's trade value. Good. We get to keep our top 10 center and moving Harris unclogs the 3.

[MagicFan101]

Fluff piece that could potential raise Harris's trade value. Good. We get to keep our top 10 center and moving Harris unclogs the 3.

Teams have their own data scientists to do this research for them. I'm assuming your average NBA team can pay more than $75K professor salary and attract elite mathematicians. So I doubt any team is giving time to this article.

[ezzzp]

I read through most of it and walked away with a very clear understanding as to why this guy is a lowly associate professor with only 2 publications (neither is high ranked journals) to his name.

There are quite a few sweeping generalizations or assumptions one must accept as universal law before his statistics are useful. This is a silly fluff piece.

Agreed

...and as I mentioned in another thread that linked this same article, I'm not entirely sold that Harris has the capacity to be a ball handler in heavy traffic. Seems to me that the analyst, just looked at numbers and neglected to look at actual game footage.

We all know Harris is good in the open court, can post up, and can finish in straight line drives...BUT can he handle densely packed lanes and create under those pressured dribble scenarios + see the entire floor? I haven't seen anything on the court that indicates that he has those abilities. This is not me hating on Harris - I like Harris on this team a lot; I just haven't seen that Harris is the ball handler that the author assumes from looking at numbers.

Also, in regards to the defensive center fix; there are very few defensive centers that are agile enough to defend beyond 10' and quick/athletic enough to recoil and protect the rim. There are even less that can do that and not be a liability on the offensive end - which is 50% of the game. Otherwise Dewayne Dedmon would be our staring center and Magic's camp invitee Nnanna Egwu would be in the NBA right now.

For every action there is a reaction, removing Vuc creates a massive offensive void. That is not an easy or cheap hole to simply fix...that player does not exist on this team so he would have to be acquired.

Also his argument, forgets to mention that D Jordan is surrounded in those situations by very good to elite 3 point shooters (CP3/JJ/Prigioni/Crawford/Pierce/Johnson)...sorry but the Magic do not have the 3pt shooters to insert into that equation.

[mojosodope]

I read through most of it and walked away with a very clear understanding as to why this guy is a lowly associate professor with only 2 publications (neither is high ranked journals) to his name.

There are quite a few sweeping generalizations or assumptions one must accept as universal law before his statistics are useful. This is a silly fluff piece.

Agreed

...and as I mentioned in another thread that linked this same article, I'm not entirely sold that Harris has the capacity to be a ball handler in heavy traffic. Seems to me that the analyst, just looked at numbers and neglected to look at actual game footage.

We all know Harris is good in the open court, can post up, and can finish in straight line drives...BUT can he handle densely packed lanes and create under those pressured dribble scenarios + see the entire floor? I haven't seen anything on the court that indicates that he has those abilities. This is not me hating on Harris - I like Harris on this team a lot; I just haven't seen that Harris is the ball handler that the author assumes from looking at numbers.

Also, in regards to the defensive center fix; there are very few defensive centers that are agile enough to defend beyond 10' and quick/athletic enough to recoil and protect the rim. There are even less that can do that and not be a liability on the offensive end - which is 50% of the game. Otherwise Dewayne Dedmon would be our staring center and Magic's camp invitee Nnanna Egwu would be in the NBA right now.

For every action there is a reaction, removing Vuc creates a massive offensive void. That is not an easy or cheap hole to simply fix...that player does not exist on this team so he would have to be acquired.

Also his argument, forgets to mention that D Jordan is surrounded in those situations by very good to elite 3 point shooters (CP3/JJ/Prigioni/Crawford/Pierce/Johnson)...sorry but the Magic do not have the 3pt shooters to insert into that equation.

This could also be why the lanes are "densely packed" and why you dont see harris creating under those pressured dribble scenerious

[Strayanmagicfan]

Our problem is Gordon and Hezonja are only 20. We need to fast forward 2-3 years.

[OrlandO]

Vucevic is allowing opponents to shoot 59.2% against him at the rim. That’s 28th in the NBA among the 30 primary rim protectors.

That's not his rim protection figure. He's at 52% for opposing fg% at the rim. In the new year it's at 50% and for the past month it's at 48%. The author is looking at a different stat and calling it rim protection.

[407Junkie]

Seems like someone is just a Tobias Harris fan. All I know is when he's out with injury this team plays better. This goes back to last year even with Vaughn. Post nerd numbers and stats all you want but just sitting and watching proves that.

[MagicFan101]

Vucevic is allowing opponents to shoot 59.2% against him at the rim. That’s 28th in the NBA among the 30 primary rim protectors.

That's not his rim protection figure. He's at 52% for opposing fg% at the rim. In the new year it's at 50% and for the past month it's at 48%. The author is looking at a different stat and calling it rim protection.

Yup.

Look, it doesn't take long for anyone to see that Vuc has clear strengths and weaknesses. He accepted a pretty average contract (big quality big men) because he sees his flaws as well. You don't have to fluff the stats to show this.

Also, everyone can see the Harris is an efficient but not spectacular offensive player. He got paid and will have a nice career. Why do people insist on making up stats to try and see more than he is?

[ezzzp]

Agreed

...and as I mentioned in another thread that linked this same article, I'm not entirely sold that Harris has the capacity to be a ball handler in heavy traffic. Seems to me that the analyst, just looked at numbers and neglected to look at actual game footage.

We all know Harris is good in the open court, can post up, and can finish in straight line drives...BUT can he handle densely packed lanes and create under those pressured dribble scenarios + see the entire floor? I haven't seen anything on the court that indicates that he has those abilities. This is not me hating on Harris - I like Harris on this team a lot; I just haven't seen that Harris is the ball handler that the author assumes from looking at numbers.

Also, in regards to the defensive center fix; there are very few defensive centers that are agile enough to defend beyond 10' and quick/athletic enough to recoil and protect the rim. There are even less that can do that and not be a liability on the offensive end - which is 50% of the game. Otherwise Dewayne Dedmon would be our staring center and Magic's camp invitee Nnanna Egwu would be in the NBA right now.

For every action there is a reaction, removing Vuc creates a massive offensive void. That is not an easy or cheap hole to simply fix...that player does not exist on this team so he would have to be acquired.

Also his argument, forgets to mention that D Jordan is surrounded in those situations by very good to elite 3 point shooters (CP3/JJ/Prigioni/Crawford/Pierce/Johnson)...sorry but the Magic do not have the 3pt shooters to insert into that equation.

This could also be why the lanes are "densely packed" and why you dont see harris creating under those pressured dribble scenerious

So you're saying the Magic should sit EP, Gordon and Oladipo so Harris can run the pick n roll? Start Napier/Hezonja or Fournier/Frye or Nicholson so that Harris has open lanes to work with in the pick and roll?

[mojosodope]

Agreed

...and as I mentioned in another thread that linked this same article, I'm not entirely sold that Harris has the capacity to be a ball handler in heavy traffic. Seems to me that the analyst, just looked at numbers and neglected to look at actual game footage.

We all know Harris is good in the open court, can post up, and can finish in straight line drives...BUT can he handle densely packed lanes and create under those pressured dribble scenarios + see the entire floor? I haven't seen anything on the court that indicates that he has those abilities. This is not me hating on Harris - I like Harris on this team a lot; I just haven't seen that Harris is the ball handler that the author assumes from looking at numbers.

Also, in regards to the defensive center fix; there are very few defensive centers that are agile enough to defend beyond 10' and quick/athletic enough to recoil and protect the rim. There are even less that can do that and not be a liability on the offensive end - which is 50% of the game. Otherwise Dewayne Dedmon would be our staring center and Magic's camp invitee Nnanna Egwu would be in the NBA right now.

For every action there is a reaction, removing Vuc creates a massive offensive void. That is not an easy or cheap hole to simply fix...that player does not exist on this team so he would have to be acquired.

Also his argument, forgets to mention that D Jordan is surrounded in those situations by very good to elite 3 point shooters (CP3/JJ/Prigioni/Crawford/Pierce/Johnson)...sorry but the Magic do not have the 3pt shooters to insert into that equation.

This could also be why the lanes are "densely packed" and why you dont see harris creating under those pressured dribble scenerious

So you're saying the Magic should sit EP, Gordon and Oladipo so Harris can run the pick n roll? Start Napier/Hezonja or Fournier/Frye or Nicholson so that Harris has open lanes to work with in the pick and roll?

No...I am saying that since magic do not have very good to elite 3 point shooters (just like you said), and it likely contributes to densely packed lanes.

[Bensational]

I've seen this article before, and the biggest questions that comes to mind for me are:

If Harris is this good, why have 3 different coaches failed to make him more of a feature?

Why hasn't Harris demanded more attention? Dipo, Fournier and Vuc all seem to have found ways to assert their presence on offense with particular moves that demand they have the ball.

Now, I have certainly witnessed Fournier overlooking Harris a lot, and Oladipo's not the best at finding him all the time either, but Harris rarely stops the ball in the middle of a play to create for himself the way Dipo or Fournier do. Is this Harris being a more mature player and following the offensive scheme to find the best look at the basket, or is he passing up those opportunities?

Every player seems to have had their moment where they've clearly taken over the offense, but I don't feel like Harris has. He just seems to quietly get his points all night.

[ezzzp]

This could also be why the lanes are "densely packed" and why you dont see harris creating under those pressured dribble scenerious

So you're saying the Magic should sit EP, Gordon and Oladipo so Harris can run the pick n roll? Start Napier/Hezonja or Fournier/Frye or Nicholson so that Harris has open lanes to work with in the pick and roll?

No...I am saying that since magic do not have very good to elite 3 point shooters (just like you said), and it likely contributes to densely packed lanes.

oh ok, yes this is what happens mostly when Payton is on the floor...more so when EP and AG playing together...even worse when EP, VO and AG are on floor ...and even more worse when EP, VO, AG, and Harris are on floor...

EP % is improving but at a very low attempt rate; VO is all over the 3pt % map from one night to the next, AG is below average from deep and Harris has fallen off a cliff from 3pt range....that's a lot of the Magic's offensive arsenal that produces very little gravity towards the edges - which produces less dense lanes.