Tank Fest Update Around the League

[Bogyo]

And I think this is how it will stay. Lakers and Philly are tanking as well, and they are worse than us. Especially if/when we'll get a bit healthier, I don't hold Knight or Chandler in high regard, but when they will be back we might win a few more games than those 2 and could "challenge" Brooklyn (and Minny?) for the 4/5 spot. Not that I like it, but thats how I see it. I really want to get a top 2 pick.
3rd-6th doesn't really matter, I can see that there are nice players there who will be very useful, but no multiple all star game changers by the looks of it. Bender/Dunn/Brown/Hield/Rabb are all OK imo, and I trust McD that much in the draft.

[SunsFanSSOL]

And I think this is how it will stay. Lakers and Philly are tanking as well, and they are worse than us. Especially if/when we'll get a bit healthier, I don't hold Knight or Chandler in high regard, but when they will be back we might win a few more games than those 2 and could "challenge" Brooklyn (and Minny?) for the 4/5 spot. Not that I like it, but thats how I see it. I really want to get a top 2 pick.
3rd-6th doesn't really matter, I can see that there are nice players there who will be very useful, but no multiple all star game changers by the looks of it. Bender/Dunn/Brown/Hield/Rabb are all OK imo, and I trust McD that much in the draft.

Lakers aren't worse than us and they still play 2 games against us (which I'm pretty sure they'll win). They also finally are starting Russell and Randle, which should help.

[Bogyo]

And I think this is how it will stay. Lakers and Philly are tanking as well, and they are worse than us. Especially if/when we'll get a bit healthier, I don't hold Knight or Chandler in high regard, but when they will be back we might win a few more games than those 2 and could "challenge" Brooklyn (and Minny?) for the 4/5 spot. Not that I like it, but thats how I see it. I really want to get a top 2 pick.
3rd-6th doesn't really matter, I can see that there are nice players there who will be very useful, but no multiple all star game changers by the looks of it. Bender/Dunn/Brown/Hield/Rabb are all OK imo, and I trust McD that much in the draft.

Lakers aren't worse than us and they still play 2 games against us (which I'm pretty sure they'll win). They also finally are starting Russell and Randle, which should help.

I think they are IF we have Knight and Chandler. That was my original statement as well. This team (seen against the Clippers for example) is the worst in the NBA, including Philly.

[AtheJ415]

And I think this is how it will stay. Lakers and Philly are tanking as well, and they are worse than us. Especially if/when we'll get a bit healthier, I don't hold Knight or Chandler in high regard, but when they will be back we might win a few more games than those 2 and could "challenge" Brooklyn (and Minny?) for the 4/5 spot. Not that I like it, but thats how I see it. I really want to get a top 2 pick.
3rd-6th doesn't really matter, I can see that there are nice players there who will be very useful, but no multiple all star game changers by the looks of it. Bender/Dunn/Brown/Hield/Rabb are all OK imo, and I trust McD that much in the draft.

Lakers aren't worse than us and they still play 2 games against us (which I'm pretty sure they'll win). They also finally are starting Russell and Randle, which should help.

It does and it doesn't. Russell (who I like), and Randle (who I think is hugely overrated/overvalued), are more talented than the guys who play ahead of them, but they also kind of suck because they're young. Both are below average efficiency. I don't think them playing will necessarily result in wins at their current ages. That said, I do think they may be better than us assuming injuries continue on our end. I think we can catch them, but it'll be close imo, particularly with Booker's recent struggles.

[AtheJ415]

Somebody help me out. Who do we cheer for in the 76ers Orlando game tonight?

I feel like Washington will probably finish the season at #11 or 12 in the reverse standings. Orlando could catch them, putting them at 10 (which would be most ideal for our pick). But then there's the 76ers, who it would be a crazy small chance for us to catch, but still possible.

[Mr Puddles]

1. 76ers

• Games against below .500 opponents: 10 Nets (2x), New Orleans, NY Knicks, Milwaukee, Denver, Washington (2x), Orlando, Detroit.
• Difficulty of remaining schedule: Medium
• Current chance of getting Simmons or Ingram (top 2): 46.5%
• Chance of Suns out-tanking the 76ers: The 76ers need to more than double their wins over the next 25 games in order for the Suns to out-tank them. The Sixers currently have 8 wins, which is the same amount the Suns had by the end of the first full month of the season.

Verdict: Not a chance in hell

2. Lakers

• Games against below .500 opponents: 10 Nets, Nuggets (2x), Magic, Knicks, Kings, Suns (2x), Washington, NOLA,
• Difficulty of remaining schedule: Easy
• Current chance of getting Simmons or Ingram (top 2): 38.7%
• Chance of Suns out-tanking the Lakers: Lakers have two remaining games against the suns. If we lose those both, we're only 1.5 games ahead of LA. Lakers also face the Gasol-less Grizzlies three times.

Verdict: Possible but unlikely.

3. Suns

• Games against below .500 opponents: 13- Brooklyn, Orlando, Knicks, Denver, Minnesota (2x), LAL (2x), Kings (2x), Bucks, Washington, NOLA.
• Difficulty of remaining schedule: Easiest
• Current chance of getting Simmons or Ingram (top 2): 31.3%
• Verdict: Rest of the schedule is a cupcake - on top of more than half of our remaining games being against sub 500 teams, we also play 3 games against the Gasolless Grizzlies. Easiest remaining schedule works in out favor because we play directly against our tank opponents. Lakers, Brooklyn, Washington, Minnesota are all must lose games.

4. Nets

• Games against below .500 opponents: 13 - Phoenix, LAL, Denver, Minnesota, Philadelphia (2x), Milwaukee, Detroit, Orlando, NYK, Washington (2x), NOLA.
• Difficulty of remaining schedule: Easy
• Current chance of getting Simmons or Ingram (top 2): 24.6%
• Chance of Suns out-tanking the Nets: If Nets win their game against the Suns, then they should practically be out of the race. Easiest remaining schedule, between them LAL and 76ers, combined with zero incentive to tank should make this a no brainer.

Verdict: Very Likely

Overall verdict
We're not going to out-tank the 76ers. The tank is just too strong in Philadelphia. There is a slim change we may overtake the Lakers, but that would only bum us up another 7.5% in terms of getting Simmons or Ingram. I don't see us sliding to the 4th worst record either, so between ending as the 2nd or the 3rd worst we'll have about a 1 in 3 change of ending up with a top 2 pick, and roughly a 1 in 2 chance of landing a top 3 pick.

On a side note, our tank opponents are playing Washington a grand total of 5 games. Those games could either be a double blow to our tank (Washington wins, [insert LAL/Nets/ Philly] loses) or a double boost (Washington loses, [insert LAL/Nets/ Philly] wins).

[Mulhollanddrive]

If Brooklyn can win against Portland and us, we'll be 3 games clear of both 2nd and 4th.

[thamadkant]

Suns will pick 3rd


I can smell it now.


Just like the coin toss...
Just like Hawks pick that could of landed Suns Noah.. But finished top 3... Jumping other teams...

[Bogyo]

1. 76ers

• Games against below .500 opponents: 10 Nets (2x), New Orleans, NY Knicks, Milwaukee, Denver, Washington (2x), Orlando, Detroit.
• Difficulty of remaining schedule: Medium
• Current chance of getting Simmons or Ingram (top 2): 46.5%
• Chance of Suns out-tanking the 76ers: The 76ers need to more than double their wins over the next 25 games in order for the Suns to out-tank them. The Sixers currently have 8 wins, which is the same amount the Suns had by the end of the first full month of the season.

Verdict: Not a chance in hell

2. Lakers

• Games against below .500 opponents: 10 Nets, Nuggets (2x), Magic, Knicks, Kings, Suns (2x), Washington, NOLA,
• Difficulty of remaining schedule: Easy
• Current chance of getting Simmons or Ingram (top 2): 38.7%
• Chance of Suns out-tanking the Lakers: Lakers have two remaining games against the suns. If we lose those both, we're only 1.5 games ahead of LA. Lakers also face the Gasol-less Grizzlies three times.

Verdict: Possible but unlikely.

3. Suns

• Games against below .500 opponents: 13- Brooklyn, Orlando, Knicks, Denver, Minnesota (2x), LAL (2x), Kings (2x), Bucks, Washington, NOLA.
• Difficulty of remaining schedule: Easiest
• Current chance of getting Simmons or Ingram (top 2): 31.3%
• Verdict: Rest of the schedule is a cupcake - on top of more than half of our remaining games being against sub 500 teams, we also play 3 games against the Gasolless Grizzlies. Easiest remaining schedule works in out favor because we play directly against our tank opponents. Lakers, Brooklyn, Washington, Minnesota are all must lose games.

4. Nets

• Games against below .500 opponents: 13 - Phoenix, LAL, Denver, Minnesota, Philadelphia (2x), Milwaukee, Detroit, Orlando, NYK, Washington (2x), NOLA.
• Difficulty of remaining schedule: Easy
• Current chance of getting Simmons or Ingram (top 2): 24.6%
• Chance of Suns out-tanking the Nets: If Nets win their game against the Suns, then they should practically be out of the race. Easiest remaining schedule, between them LAL and 76ers, combined with zero incentive to tank should make this a no brainer.

Verdict: Very Likely

Overall verdict
We're not going to out-tank the 76ers. The tank is just too strong in Philadelphia. There is a slim change we may overtake the Lakers, but that would only bum us up another 7.5% in terms of getting Simmons or Ingram. I don't see us sliding to the 4th worst record either, so between ending as the 2nd or the 3rd worst we'll have about a 1 in 3 change of ending up with a top 2 pick, and roughly a 1 in 2 chance of landing a top 3 pick.

On a side note, our tank opponents are playing Washington a grand total of 5 games. Those games could either be a double blow to our tank (Washington wins, [insert LAL/Nets/ Philly] loses) or a double boost (Washington loses, [insert LAL/Nets/ Philly] wins).

Great stuff Mr P! Thank you for putting it together!
About the sidenote: Washington just beat Brooklyn, and they are just getting better with a fully healed Beal, and Kieff coming off their bench, and might go into the playoffs wiht a bit of luck. Not good for our pick, which is typical Suns luck, so nothing to see here, move along folks. Silver lining: knowing our luck if they remain in the lottery they might just jump to #1. #Sunsluck.
Silver linig part deux: the 10th and the 15th pick might not differ all that much, especially in this draft.

My sidenote: what do we do with the 3rd/4th pick in a 2 player draft? Pick Bender and let him develop while he is on his rookie contract and continue to suck next year? Pick Dunn and trade Knight or Bledsoe? Pick Brown and hope and pray that he turns out to be another Iggy/Jrich/Kwhai next to Bookers shooting? Or trade it for a youngish star?

[m1chal]

Washington playing much better as of late with Gortat and Wall beasting. Our pick should be between 13 and 15 I guess.

[King4Day]

I fully expect us to beat the Nets tonight. They're on the second road game on the (west coast).
Not the best game to win considering who it's against but it's likely we will.

[Bogyo]

I fully expect us to beat the Nets tonight. They're on the second road game on the (west coast).
Not the best game to win considering who it's against but it's likely we will.

That game is only tomorrow, so its not a back to back for Brooklyn. Plus it's a must lose for us to secure the 3rd positon in the standings. I don't care how we do it as long as we do it. Make PJ our ballhandler, whatever...

[SSOL]

I fully expect us to beat the Nets tonight. They're on the second road game on the (west coast).
Not the best game to win considering who it's against but it's likely we will.

That game is only tomorrow, so its not a back to back for Brooklyn. Plus it's a must lose for us to secure the 3rd positon in the standings. I don't care how we do it as long as we do it. Make PJ our ballhandler, whatever...

Brooklyn will win. Maybe even handily.

[King4Day]

I fully expect us to beat the Nets tonight. They're on the second road game on the (west coast).
Not the best game to win considering who it's against but it's likely we will.

That game is only tomorrow, so its not a back to back for Brooklyn. Plus it's a must lose for us to secure the 3rd positon in the standings. I don't care how we do it as long as we do it. Make PJ our ballhandler, whatever...

Yea forgot it wasn't tonight. But I still expect us to win.
I want the losses but I also don't want to break any losing streak records.
It wouldn't be the worst thing for Watson to get win under his belt either.

[Bogyo]

I fully expect us to beat the Nets tonight. They're on the second road game on the (west coast).
Not the best game to win considering who it's against but it's likely we will.

That game is only tomorrow, so its not a back to back for Brooklyn. Plus it's a must lose for us to secure the 3rd positon in the standings. I don't care how we do it as long as we do it. Make PJ our ballhandler, whatever...

Yea forgot it wasn't tonight. But I still expect us to win.
I want the losses but I also don't want to break any losing streak records.
It wouldn't be the worst thing for Watson to get win under his belt either.

I hear you, and u make sense - all losing streaks come to an end eventually, and all coaches get their first win after a while. We have a good chance... But I'd still like us to secure that 3rd place, and this is our best bet.

[SSOL]

I fully expect us to beat the Nets tonight. They're on the second road game on the (west coast).
Not the best game to win considering who it's against but it's likely we will.

That game is only tomorrow, so its not a back to back for Brooklyn. Plus it's a must lose for us to secure the 3rd positon in the standings. I don't care how we do it as long as we do it. Make PJ our ballhandler, whatever...

Yea forgot it wasn't tonight. But I still expect us to win.
I want the losses but I also don't want to break any losing streak records.
It wouldn't be the worst thing for Watson to get win under his belt either.

Can't have it both ways. Every loss matters. Every single one. Records will have to be broken.

[bwgood77]

I fully expect us to beat the Nets tonight. They're on the second road game on the (west coast).
Not the best game to win considering who it's against but it's likely we will.

That game is only tomorrow, so its not a back to back for Brooklyn. Plus it's a must lose for us to secure the 3rd positon in the standings. I don't care how we do it as long as we do it. Make PJ our ballhandler, whatever...

Yea forgot it wasn't tonight. But I still expect us to win.
I want the losses but I also don't want to break any losing streak records.
It wouldn't be the worst thing for Watson to get win under his belt either.

I'm not sure why you expect us to win when we are losing by like 40 to people.

[starbosa10]

not gaining any ground tonight, lakers already down 15

[JMac1]

Are fight isnt with LAL nor the Sixers, it is with the team we play next; must lose!

[SunsFanSSOL]

Wizards are so bad we might lose our pick.