There is no chance we catch up with the Spurs for the 2nd seed. We are a full 7 games behind with only 26 games to go. If the Spurs go a medicore 15-11 we would need to go 22-4. If the Spurs win at their current pace they win 69 games. Even if we won every game we still would fall short.
At this point the 2nd seed is out of reach.
But what if we fall to the 4th seed? That actually isn't that bad. Currently we would face Memphis as the 4th seed instead of Dallas as the 3rd seed. The difference between facing the 5th seed vs the 6th seed is next to nothing. But if we do get the 4th seed that means the Spurs would have to face the #3 Clippers in the second round. There is a pretty decent chance the Clippers win that series. Thus we would avoid having to beat both the Spurs and Warrirors to make it to the Finals.
Also I'd rather face Golden State in the 2nd round than in the WCF. They would be coming off of sweeping the #8 seed and probably can be caught off guard. Golden State look really sluggish in the first 3 games versus Memphis in the 2nd round last year. With the playoff schedule Golden State may have over a week of rest before playing OKC in the 2nd round. That could lead to rust. Plus Ezeli would be a just coming back and would be much better in the later rounds.
So who would you rather play?
As the 3rd Seed
Dallas
Spurs (pretty much a guarantee Spurs win in the first round)
Golden State (pretty much guarantee Warriors make it to the WCF)
or
As the 4th Seed
Memphis
Golden State (I'd rather face them after they blow out the #8 seed, they maybe caught off guard like last year vs Memphis)
Clippers (There is a good chance the Clippers beat the Spurs in round 2) or Spurs
Its virtually impossible for OKC to drop to the 5th seed. So looking at the facts it just makes sense to start resting players in March. What we need is a fully refreshed and ready KD, Russ, and Ibaka. And it would not hurt to give Payne, Morrow, and McGary more playing time. KD and Ibaka have been looking really tired lately. I think we need to give them some games off. Same with Russ, even though he doesn't look tired.
OKC should seriously think of resting KD, Ibaka, and Russ in these games:
March 2 @ Golden State - really little chance of winning this game on a back to back on the road. Just rest.
March 19 @ Indy - another back to back on the road
April 5th @ Portland - another back to back on the road
At this point rest is much more important then getting the #3 seed instead of the #4 seed.
In fact I'd say its more advantageous to get the #4 seed because there is a chance you catch Golden State off guard in the 2nd round and the Spurs may lose to the Clippers.
Should start resting KD, Russ, and Ibaka
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Should start resting KD, Russ, and Ibaka
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Re: Should start resting KD, Russ, and Ibaka
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Re: Should start resting KD, Russ, and Ibaka
Wonder who this is?
Locking it up.
Locking it up.
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