Official #1 pick thread: Simmons or Ingram? Merging topics and a Poll

[BobThornton]

HOT TAKE AFTER WATCHING DUKE & LSU ON SATURDAY, 2/20:

Ingram had nine TOs in a loss to LOU. Simmons had eight TOs in a loss to TENN. These are the first tier prospects in the 2016 NBA Draft. This was a very bad day for the Tank. Ingram had the "yips" and Simmons looked very bored, maybe petulant. (Today, I am particularly pleased that we still have Okafor and not more BRK ping pong balls in the 2016 Draft.)

I have something to say about coaching. Coach K is a great and Ingram is playing in an NBA system that spreads the floor and emphasizes spacing, ball movement and cutting to the basket. Ingram is being used in a way that will carryover into his pro career.

Coach Jones, on the other hand, is a lousy coach. He has no idea how to use Simmons and Ben is suffering. ESPN's "beautiful, heart warming story of the surrogate dad mentoring the prodigy from down under" has run off the rails. Simmons was on the bench to start the game against TENN for what was reported as "academic issues." Whatever! When Ben did enter the game, he was deployed setting multiple screens around the foul line and the offense sputtered. Coach Jones changed it up after a few tortured possessions and put Simmons in the post. The results were not much better. Simmons needs the ball in his hands at the beginning of the possession. His teammates should be setting screens for him so he has clean lanes to go to the basket. Simmons is most dangerous in the open court when he has the ball and a head of steam which brings me to the next great misuse of his skills by the bungling Coach Jones.

edit: (I hit submit instead of preview...)

LSU's default defense is a zone with Simmons playing under the basket. If the opposition misses a shot and Ben collects the rebound, he can start the break off the dribble or with an outlet pass. However, if Coach Jones would play more MTM, the game can become more frenetic with better transition opportunities for his prodigy. Here's my one dig on Simmons today; he is awful at stopping the ball when it penetrates the outside of the zone. Freakin' Turrible! He doesn't establish position to take a charge opting instead to take a swipe at the ball as the ball handler drives to the goal. Those hand swipes are going to be fouls in the NBA. What is more confounding about the zone scheme that Jones has played is that Simmons is not a rim protector!

To summarize: Ben Simmons has had an awful freshman campaign despite the gaudy stats. His team will not make the Tournament. He will enter the Draft as a top 2 pick with these caveats: inability and unwillingness to shoot a jump shot, not a rim protector, good not great athlete, average measurements for an NBA PF, questionable lateral movement and defense to guard SFs. Tweener. Thanks very much Coach Jones.

I do think most of the flaws are being protected by their coach because of an agreement during recruitment process or just maximizing the talent of his team.

But yeah, i do see some concerning signs on Simmons. He's more of a Blake Griffin than LBJ to me, for now. I don't think he can take it inside dominantly like in college. He will have to improve his shot in order to live up to the hype. Defensively, it's tough to judge these guys because teams do implement zones and schemes to hide their weaknesses.

You guys are going to kill me for this....but isn't Simmons just a much better passing Julius Randle?

[76ciology]

It will be interesting to see how Ingram fairs athletically in the NBA...I think he may have a bigger adjustment than some people think until he gains some strength/weight.

NBA is soft. Truth be told, it's more theatrical than actual basketball. NBA wants guys to look super human with unlimited range, high volume scoring and dunks from perimeter players. And they were able to find a way by not allowing hand checking.

So yeah Ingram may be weak, but all he ever has to do on offense is do what RoCo is doing. Jack up contested 3s (defenders would need to sag off to defend drive; Ingram has the length and the touch to proficiently shoot over guys) if defender stay close at him, he will easily drive to the basket while his long strides, length and athleticism would make it easy for him to get to the basket.

Defensively, look at KP and he's facing much more physical opponents at the PF/C position. NBA's defense favors defensive rotations, blocks and steals over strength, if you can provide that then you're good on defense.

[sixerswillrule]

You guys are going to kill me for this....but isn't Simmons just a much better passing Julius Randle?

Not a terrible comparison. It's a pretty huge passing gap, though. Randle is one of the worst mid-range shooters in the league. Simmons looks to be right there with him at this point. Obviously no outside shot either. He'll definitely be limited as a player if he can't significantly improve his shooting.

[Agnostifarian]

HOT TAKE AFTER WATCHING DUKE & LSU ON SATURDAY, 2/20:

Ingram had nine TOs in a loss to LOU. Simmons had eight TOs in a loss to TENN. These are the first tier prospects in the 2016 NBA Draft. This was a very bad day for the Tank. Ingram had the "yips" and Simmons looked very bored, maybe petulant. (Today, I am particularly pleased that we still have Okafor and not more BRK ping pong balls in the 2016 Draft.)

I have something to say about coaching. Coach K is a great and Ingram is playing in an NBA system that spreads the floor and emphasizes spacing, ball movement and cutting to the basket. Ingram is being used in a way that will carryover into his pro career.

Coach Jones, on the other hand, is a lousy coach. He has no idea how to use Simmons and Ben is suffering. ESPN's "beautiful, heart warming story of the surrogate dad mentoring the prodigy from down under" has run off the rails. Simmons was on the bench to start the game against TENN for what was reported as "academic issues." Whatever! When Ben did enter the game, he was deployed setting multiple screens around the foul line and the offense sputtered. Coach Jones changed it up after a few tortured possessions and put Simmons in the post. The results were not much better. Simmons needs the ball in his hands at the beginning of the possession. His teammates should be setting screens for him so he has clean lanes to go to the basket. Simmons is most dangerous in the open court when he has the ball and a head of steam which brings me to the next great misuse of his skills by the bungling Coach Jones.

edit: (I hit submit instead of preview...)

LSU's default defense is a zone with Simmons playing under the basket. If the opposition misses a shot and Ben collects the rebound, he can start the break off the dribble or with an outlet pass. However, if Coach Jones would play more MTM, the game can become more frenetic with better transition opportunities for his prodigy. Here's my one dig on Simmons today; he is awful at stopping the ball when it penetrates the outside of the zone. Freakin' Turrible! He doesn't establish position to take a charge opting instead to take a swipe at the ball as the ball handler drives to the goal. Those hand swipes are going to be fouls in the NBA. What is more confounding about the zone scheme that Jones has played is that Simmons is not a rim protector!

To summarize: Ben Simmons has had an awful freshman campaign despite the gaudy stats. His team will not make the Tournament. He will enter the Draft as a top 2 pick with these caveats: inability and unwillingness to shoot a jump shot, not a rim protector, good not great athlete, average measurements for an NBA PF, questionable lateral movement and defense to guard SFs. Tweener. Thanks very much Coach Jones.

I do think most of the flaws are being protected by their coach because of an agreement during recruitment process or just maximizing the talent of his team.

But yeah, i do see some concerning signs on Simmons. He's more of a Blake Griffin than LBJ to me, for now. I don't think he can take it inside dominantly like in college. He will have to improve his shot in order to live up to the hype. Defensively, it's tough to judge these guys because teams do implement zones and schemes to hide their weaknesses.

You guys are going to kill me for this....but isn't Simmons just a much better passing Julius Randle?

True comps are hard and time consuming. My first inclination for a modern comp for Simmons was a version of Aaron Gordon but he is much different than Simmons. Randle doesn't have the Simmons' passing game. But Randle, Gordon, Saric can all take a defensive rebound and turn it into a one man break. I think the Diaw/Odom comps are better.

[tsmith]

You guys are going to kill me for this....but isn't Simmons just a much better passing Julius Randle?

Not a terrible comparison. It's a pretty huge passing gap, though. Randle is one of the worst mid-range shooters in the league. Simmons looks to be right there with him at this point. Obviously no outside shot either. He'll definitely be limited as a player if he can't significantly improve his shooting.

Better ball handler, quicker, better vision, can use his other hand. etc.

[sixerswillrule]

You guys are going to kill me for this....but isn't Simmons just a much better passing Julius Randle?

Not a terrible comparison. It's a pretty huge passing gap, though. Randle is one of the worst mid-range shooters in the league. Simmons looks to be right there with him at this point. Obviously no outside shot either. He'll definitely be limited as a player if he can't significantly improve his shooting.

Better ball handler, quicker, better vision, can use his other hand. etc.

Well he really can only finish with one hand.

[Ericb5]

The thing with Simmons is that he really IS like Lebron. He is perhaps a notch below him athletically, but he is closer to Lebron than he is to someone like Randle.

You need to find a great athlete, at his size, with elite vision and feel for the game. That surely isn't Randle, or Gordon.


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[Agnostifarian]

HOT TAKE AFTER LSU's BLOWOUT LOSS TO ARK (2/23): Simmons: more hollow stats and "red carpet" defense in the paint. Moses Kingsley looked like a much better prospect as he ate Simmons' lunch in the paint.

Simmons is a terrible and disinterested defender. He plays under the basket in a 2/3 zone almost exclusively. For all of his own scoring, he gives it all back on D. (I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHERE LSU RANKS IN DEFENDING SHOTS IN THE PAINT. I DON'T KNOW WHERE TO FIND THOSE STATS BUT I WOULD APPRECIATE ANY HELP FROM OTHER BOARD MEMBERS WHO CAN SHED LIGHT ON THIS TOPIC WITH NUMBERS.)

I am totally off the Simmons bandwagon. He will destroy our spacing on offense and get abused on defense. I SEE MAJOR STRUGGLES FOR HIM IN HIS ROOKIE YEAR AND A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL.

[NJ SixerFan]

I'm slowly getting to the point where I would prefer Ingram to simmons. The shooting concerns me. Hell he doesn't even use what is considered his strong hand 90% of the time. Now he's got the problems with academics (I know he's a 1 and done but shows a lack of professionalism). Add on top of that reports out that he doesn't play any defense. Starting to look like a high risk high reward type of thing. It's weird because his stats seem to be empty when you consider his team doesn't win. Comparing his feel and passing game to LeBron should mean Simmons elevates those around him but that does not seem to be the case.

[BobThornton]

The improvement throughout the season that Duke small forward Brandon Ingram has displayed and his greater opportunity for a postseason showcase gives him a decent chance to unseat combo forward Ben Simmons as the presumptive No. 1 pick in this year’s draft, but Simmons is still out in front, as Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com examine. The “overwhelming majority” of people around the NBA still think Simmons will be drafted first, Ford writes, believing that it’s because of his potential to play like a taller, more athletic Draymond Green. Still, Simmons’ lack of midrange and outside shooting is a concern, Ford adds.

[Dave321]

I've watched every Duke game this season and Ingram has improved a lot. I'm still not 100% sold on him because of his weight/strength, ball handling, and motor. He has more turnovers than assists and his 67.5% free throw shooting means he may not be a good NBA 3 pointing.

[steveb21]

So after reading the last few posts are we saying it might be best to pick at #3 again? We could draft either Brown or Dunn and let the Lakers pick convey next year?

[Skates]

Simmons very much has the 'it' factor and probably should have chosen a better basketball factory school than LSU to play his single year at. I think the LSU experience probably sets his development back just a little, but the guy's strengths are incredible to watch and his weaknesses you can work around. I like Ingram too, but his three point shot and foul shooting are not what they need for him to be the player we all want him to be. Definitely more projection is needed with Ingram who is younger and more physically immature. I'd like to get one of those two in any case, because the alternatives are not all that appealing.

Earlier statements about Simmons being the best prospect since LeBron are definitely overstated. I would easily put Durant and AD above him, and a healthy Joel Embiid as well, while on the other end of things, the Julius Randle comparisons are not even close. I like the bigger, more athletic, better handles Draymond Green comparison, though I think the best comparison is to Saric in truth, with Simmons being the rich man's version of Dario until his D is proven good enough to meet Green's standards.

[Duke4life831]

I'm slowly getting to the point where I would prefer Ingram to simmons. The shooting concerns me. Hell he doesn't even use what is considered his strong hand 90% of the time. Now he's got the problems with academics (I know he's a 1 and done but shows a lack of professionalism). Add on top of that reports out that he doesn't play any defense. Starting to look like a high risk high reward type of thing. It's weird because his stats seem to be empty when you consider his team doesn't win. Comparing his feel and passing game to LeBron should mean Simmons elevates those around him but that does not seem to be the case.

I believe his academic issue was he missed a tutoring session. Thats not something to really worry about when it comes to professionalism

[Duke4life831]

So after reading the last few posts are we saying it might be best to pick at #3 again? We could draft either Brown or Dunn and let the Lakers pick convey next year?

Ive said it all year long. I know Philly fans dont want to hear it, but if you can get a terrible team to trade you a non protected 1st round pick for the 17 draft and somthing else, Id take that and run. I have said all year long I dont think Simmons or Ingram would go top 3 in the 17 draft, when they were seniors in high school they werent even the best high school players, multiple juniors were superior players an them. IF you can trade a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 pick next year that would be a major win

[NJ SixerFan]

I'm slowly getting to the point where I would prefer Ingram to simmons. The shooting concerns me. Hell he doesn't even use what is considered his strong hand 90% of the time. Now he's got the problems with academics (I know he's a 1 and done but shows a lack of professionalism). Add on top of that reports out that he doesn't play any defense. Starting to look like a high risk high reward type of thing. It's weird because his stats seem to be empty when you consider his team doesn't win. Comparing his feel and passing game to LeBron should mean Simmons elevates those around him but that does not seem to be the case.

I believe his academic issue was he missed a tutoring session. Thats not something to really worry about when it comes to professionalism

I didn't know exactly what the issue was but even still they felt strongly enough for him to lose court time. And while it may be small not being somewhere you are supposed to be isn't something you can just ignore. Whats next practice, shoot around, team meetings?

[NJ SixerFan]

So after reading the last few posts are we saying it might be best to pick at #3 again? We could draft either Brown or Dunn and let the Lakers pick convey next year?

Ive said it all year long. I know Philly fans dont want to hear it, but if you can get a terrible team to trade you a non protected 1st round pick for the 17 draft and somthing else, Id take that and run. I have said all year long I dont think Simmons or Ingram would go top 3 in the 17 draft, when they were seniors in high school they werent even the best high school players, multiple juniors were superior players an them. IF you can trade a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 pick next year that would be a major win

There is no way to know where that pick you trade for would land though.

[Duke4life831]

I'm slowly getting to the point where I would prefer Ingram to simmons. The shooting concerns me. Hell he doesn't even use what is considered his strong hand 90% of the time. Now he's got the problems with academics (I know he's a 1 and done but shows a lack of professionalism). Add on top of that reports out that he doesn't play any defense. Starting to look like a high risk high reward type of thing. It's weird because his stats seem to be empty when you consider his team doesn't win. Comparing his feel and passing game to LeBron should mean Simmons elevates those around him but that does not seem to be the case.

I believe his academic issue was he missed a tutoring session. Thats not something to really worry about when it comes to professionalism

I didn't know exactly what the issue was but even still they felt strongly enough for him to lose court time. And while it may be small not being somewhere you are supposed to be isn't something you can just ignore. Whats next practice, shoot around, team meetings?

He didnt lose court time though. He basically just took his first break at a different time. He averages 35 minutes a game and in that game he played 36. And I think missing one tutoring sessions is very different than missing practice or a shoot around or something. Its not even close

[Agnostifarian]

So after reading the last few posts are we saying it might be best to pick at #3 again? We could draft either Brown or Dunn and let the Lakers pick convey next year?

Ive said it all year long. I know Philly fans dont want to hear it, but if you can get a terrible team to trade you a non protected 1st round pick for the 17 draft and somthing else, Id take that and run. I have said all year long I dont think Simmons or Ingram would go top 3 in the 17 draft, when they were seniors in high school they werent even the best high school players, multiple juniors were superior players an them. IF you can trade a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 pick next year that would be a major win

Even if it were possible to guarantee you could get a top 3 pick next year AND you are right about the relative value of the picks, the public relations are impossible to overcome.

We definitely still want the first pick and we want the LAL pick to convey at #4 this year. This rebuild is moving on, IMO.

[Duke4life831]

So after reading the last few posts are we saying it might be best to pick at #3 again? We could draft either Brown or Dunn and let the Lakers pick convey next year?

Ive said it all year long. I know Philly fans dont want to hear it, but if you can get a terrible team to trade you a non protected 1st round pick for the 17 draft and somthing else, Id take that and run. I have said all year long I dont think Simmons or Ingram would go top 3 in the 17 draft, when they were seniors in high school they werent even the best high school players, multiple juniors were superior players an them. IF you can trade a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 pick next year that would be a major win

Even if it were possible to guarantee you could get a top 3 pick next year AND you are right about the relative value of the picks, the public relations are impossible to overcome.

We definitely still want the first pick and we want the LAL pick to convey at #4 this year. This rebuild is moving on, IMO.

Oh I agree 100%. It would never happen especially with how much hype surrounds Simmons. Im just saying in a perfect world.
I just think this draft class is really weak and if you dont get a top 2 pick, i dont see anyone else being able to really turn the tables for a franchise.