The Jeff Green Experience

[Wammy Giveaway]

On February 18 of this year's trade deadline, Doc Rivers traded Lance Stephenson and a 1st round draft pick to the Clippers arch rival Memphis Grizzlies for Jeff Green. At times, he's shown himself to be a quasi-superstar. Other times, Green performs rather poorly under expectations, you'd thought he was a draft bust. OG15 and Clipperholics staff writer Jeff Nisius have described in depth why Jeff Green fits the profile of a stats filler. I went on the record on another post to claim that Green performs only well when he's up against lottery teams.

I surveyed the game logs at Basketball Reference to go through every regular season game, his rookie season to last night's loss to the Denver Nuggets. Each season has three categories: eastern playoff opponents, western playoff opponents, and lottery teams. I've pulled up the following:

1. His entire average line (PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, FOULS)
2. His static difference rating (+/-) through all games in the selected season and category
3. His win-loss record for each category
4. Number of times Jeff Green had double-digit points and his win-loss record under this event

I was unable to get minutes played because of a strange glitch associated with Excel. When I tried to integrate minutes into the spreadsheet, Excel treated them as a 24-hour time code. 23:20 would be read as 11:20 PM, and if I dare to edit the cell, the program would automatically convert it to 12-hour AM-PM time code, which was unacceptable.

Finally, each season will list the eight qualified playoff teams in order of seeding.

2008 East: Celtics, Pistons, Magic, Cavaliers, Wizards, Raptors, 76ers, Hawks
16 Games, 10 Starts, 9.8 PTS, 3.6 REB, 1.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 1.5 TOV, 2.5 FOULS, Minus 108, 3-13
8 Double Digits, 2-6

2008 West: Lakers, New Orleans, Spurs, Jazz, Rockets, Suns, Mavericks, Nuggets
30 Games, 22 Starts, 10.5 PTS, 4.1 REB, 1.7 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 1.9 TOV, 2.3 FOULS, Minus 298, 3-27
14 Double Digits, 2-12

2008 Lottery:
34 Games, 20 Starts, 10.7 PTS, 5.7 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.5 STL, 0.5 BLK, 2.2 TOV, 2.5 FOULS, Minus 102, 13-21
18 Double Digits, 6-12

2009 East: Cavaliers, Celtics, Magic, Hawks, Heat, 76ers, Bulls, Pistons
15 Games, 15 Starts, 15.2 PTS, 8.0 REB, 2.0 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.6 BLK, 2.2 TOV, 2.4 FOULS, Minus 93, 2-13
11 Double Digits, 1-10

2009 West: Lakers, Nuggets, Spurs, Trailblazers, Rockets, Mavericks, New Orleans, Jazz
27 Games, 27 Starts, 16.9 PTS, 6.0 REB, 1.7 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.2 BLK, 1.7 TOV, 2.5 FOULS, Minus 185, 4-23
25 Double Digits, 4-21

2009 Lottery:
36 Games, 36 Starts, 16.7 PTS, 6.5 REB, 2.1 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.5 BLK, 2.5 TOV, 2.6 FOULS, Minus 132, 14-22
31 Double Digits, 14-17

2010 East: Cavaliers, Magic, Hawks, Celtics, Heat, Bucks, Charlotte, Bulls
16 Games, 16 Starts, 13.6 PTS, 5.2 REB, 1.4 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.8 BLK, 0.8 TOV, 2.3 FOULS, Minus 12, 9-7
11 Double Digits, 6-5

2010 West: Lakers, Mavericks, Suns, Nuggets, Jazz, Trailblazers, Spurs, Thunder
27 Games, 27 Starts, 14.8 PTS, 6.2 REB, 1.5 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.7 BLK, 2.1 TOV, 2.8 FOULS, Minus 58, 11-16
24 Double Digits, 11-13

2010 Lottery:
39 Games, 39 Starts, 15.8 PTS, 6.0 REB, 1.7 AST, 1.3 STL, 0.9 BLK, 1.6 TOV, 2.7 FOULS, Plus 194, 30-9
35 Double Digits, 28-7

2011 East: Bulls, Heat, Celtics, Magic, Hawks, Knicks, 76ers, Pacers
17 Games, 9 Starts, 11.8 PTS, 5.1 REB, 1.1 AST, 0.5 STL, 0.7 BLK, 1.2 TOV, 3.0 FOULS, Minus 56, 9-8
10 Double Digits, 6-4

2011 West: Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks, Thunder, Nuggets, Trailblazers, New Orleans, Grizzlies
20 Games, 17 Starts, 12.0 PTS, 5.0 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.4 BLK, 1.5 TOV, 2.9 FOULS, Minus 33, 9-11
15 Double Digits, 8-7

2011 Lottery:
38 Games, 25 Starts, 14.6 PTS, 4.5 REB, 1.6 AST, 0.8 STL, 0.3 BLK, 1.2 TOV, 2.6 FOULS, Plus 87, 27-11
27 Double Digits, 19-8

2013 East: Heat, Knicks, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Hawks, Celtics, Bucks
26 Games, 6 Starts, 12.8 PTS, 4.1 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.7 BLK, 1.3 TOV, 2.0 FOULS, Minus 36, 11-15
16 Double Digits, 7-9

2013 West: Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Clippers, Grizzlies, Warriors, Lakers, Rockets
16 Games, 1 Start, 12.3 PTS, 3.6 REB, 1.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 1.1 BLK, 1.6 TOV, 2.4 FOULS, Minus 28, 6-10
10 Double Digits, 5-5

2013 Lottery:
39 Games, 10 Starts, 12.9 PTS, 3.9 REB, 1.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.7 BLK, 1.8 TOV, 2.1 FOULS, Plus 68, 24-15
26 Double Digits, 16-10

2014 East: Pacers, Heat, Raptors, Bulls, Wizards, Nets, Charlotte, Hawks
29 Games, 29 Starts, 15.9 PTS, 4.2 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.4 BLK, 2.1 TOV, 2.4 FOULS, Minus 148, 9-20
25 Double Digits, 9-16

2014 West: Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, Rockets, Trailblazers, Warriors, Grizzlies, Mavericks
16 Games, 16 Starts, 15.3 PTS, 5.3 REB, 1.7 AST, 0.5 STL, 0.5 BLK, 2.0 TOV, 2.0 FOULS, Minus 171, 0-16
12 Double Digits, 0-12

2014 Lottery:
37 Games, 37 Starts, 18.2 PTS, 4.6 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.6 BLK, 1.9 TOV, 2.1 FOULS, Minus 33, 16-21
31 Double Digits, 13-18

2015 East: Hawks, Cavaliers, Bulls, Raptors, Wizards, Bucks, Celtics, Nets
21 Games, 19 Starts, 14.8 PTS, 4.1 REB, 1.8 AST, 0.9 STL, 0.2 BLK, 1.3 TOV, 2.2 FOULS, Minus 44, 8-13
16 Double Digits, 6-10

2015 West: Warriors, Rockets, Clippers, Trailblazers, Grizzlies, Spurs, Mavericks, New Orleans
18 Games, 15 Starts, 14.1 PTS, 4.1 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.5 STL, 0.2 BLK, 1.1 TOV, 1.2 FOULS, Minus 108, 8-10
15 Double Digits, 7-8

2015 Lottery:
41 Games, 36 Starts, 14.6 PTS, 4.0 REB, 1.7 AST, 0.5 STL, 0.5 BLK, 1.4 TOV, 1.8 FOULS, Plus 17, 25-16
34 Double Digits, 22-12

2016 East: Cavaliers, Raptors(X), Heat, Celtics, Pacers, Hawks, Charlotte, Bulls
10 Games, 9 Starts, 11.3 PTS, 3.8 REB, 2.2 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.4 BLK, 1.7 TOV, 2.5 FOULS, Minus 26, 4-6
6 Double Digits, 3-3

2016 West: Warriors, Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, Grizzlies, Mavericks, Trailblazers, Rockets
20 Games, 12 Starts, 9.1 PTS, 4.3 REB, 1.6 AST, 0.5 STL, 0.5 BLK, 1.1 TOV, 1.7 FOULS, Minus 87, 7-13
8 Double Digits, 5-3

2016 Lottery:
26 Games, 10 Starts, 14.6 PTS, 4.9 REB, 1.8 AST, 0.8 STL, 0.3 BLK, 1.3 TOV, 3.3 FOULS, Plus 87, 21-5
18 Double Digits, 16-2

Notes
- During my research, there were two games that Jeff Green missed. One was for being inactive, the other was a DNP-CD.
- Green is exceptionally effective against lottery teams. Five of his eight seasons were listed in the blue and in the plus. Of a total 220 games against losing teams with double digit points, 134 of them were wins. His career record against losing teams is 170-119 (0.588).
- When you get to playoff teams, Green becomes a stats-filling non-factor. It's no surprise that every single season in which he was pitted against a playoff team resulted in the minus and the red.
- The western conference playoff opponents is Green's Achilles heel. His career record is 48-126 (0.275) against the best of the west. He has garnered 123 games of double-digit points against the west, but has only won 42 of them. He even had a season where he was winless: 0-16 in the 2013-2014 season under new Celtics coach Brad Stevens. Green isn't at his best against the east either - 55-95 for 0.367 winning percentage - but compared to his west stats, there's at least a takeaway.

Doc Rivers loves going after guys who played for him before. In fact, he personally drafted Jeff Green in the 2007 NBA Draft, but was immediately traded to the Seattle Supersonics for superstar Ray Allen by general manager Danny Ainge to help kick start the Big 3 era of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett. Doc looks to Green as a friend, a brother who suffered an aortic aneurysm and had to get open heart surgery, costing him the lockout season of 2012. Doc knows that Green may be a stats filler and possibly a draft bust, but he has irrational confidence in him because of their one season together in Boston.

As it stands, Jeff Green's numbers against the west for his career suggest the Clippers will mightily struggle against the Spurs, Warriors, Thunder and the other tiers below them. The Clippers could be in for a second round exit to the Warriors. But Doc believes that as long as he has his friends, Pierce, Green and his son, his team can accomplish anything.

Can faith overcome factual fate? This is what Doc is trying to accomplish.

[BlzMwt]

Appreciate the analysis done, this looks like it took a lot of work.

But there is definitely more context to this. His "career-record" against certain teams is irrelevant if you don't take in what team he was on, how good they were, etc.

He wasn't always in situations which were ideal for success, the first two years in OKC, then getting traded to a rebuilding Celtics team while also having issues with his heart, and then being thrown to Memphis and trying to be a wing player with limited range on a team that is focused on post play and lacks outside shooting.

I'm not trying to give him excuses, I believe he has under performed relative to his athleticism and potential talent and skillset, but there are definitely more to these numbers

[og15]

I gave an and 1 for the effort put into this. That said, Jeff Green has been at best a 3rd or 4th option on teams and I'm not really going to judge him by his teams winning percentage against certain opponents because of all the context that applies to that.

I would be more interested in seeing his individual efficiency against those teams to get a picture of if he can at least be effective at an individual level against the better teams. The numbers I posted in the other thread said that this season that has been a struggle for him, but last season he was better, so we'll see what the reality is for us.

[Wammy Giveaway]

I would be more interested in seeing his individual efficiency against those teams to get a picture of if he can at least be effective at an individual level against the better teams.

What numbers would you want for individual efficiency? Win shares, off./def. ratings? I'm not sure. I could only do the basic ones because Basketball-Reference doesn't seem to search for advanced statistics.

My only other alternative would be my Preventions metric, but I don't have a good enough sample of his intangibles. I would have to wait until the playoffs when I can provide you those numbers.

But just on these numbers alone, do you think Doc is blinded by the power of friendship?

[og15]

I don't know if it is friendship. Doc probably looked at 12-13 and saw that he was able to get good production out of Green and probably just said "we'll use him better than Memphis". I've said before that Doc has had a tendency to overrate his ability to coach up players, but at least in this case there is some historical supporting evidence.

Fro 12-13 to 14-15, Green's per 36 numbers were:
17.2 pts / 4.9 rebs / 1.9 ast / 1.9 tov / 43.3 FG% / 34.7 3PT% / 4.4 FTA / 81.1 FT% / .536 TS%

He took 30% of his FGA at the rim, and 45% inside 10 feet. This season was a struggle for him so far with Memphis except for the recent stretch. Career wise from his second season until last season he's floated around .530 - .560 TS% with an average of .535 TS% and he's floated between 102 and 108 Ortg with an average of 105 Ortg.

So essentially he's an average to slightly above average offensive player in the roles he's had. Defensively again he's floated around average from what most people's eye test suggest and even looking at things like RPM.

Looking at those numbers though, you can see why Doc would say "okay, he can produce fairly well, he's produced well playing for me" and then decide to take a shot at him. Do the Clippers need a guy in his position to score as much as that? No, but it is good that he is capable.

Essentially if he could be as good as Matt Barnes was on the average night, but with the ability to have nights on either end that Matt Barnes was not capable of having, then he is an upgrade for the Clippers at SF for the past 4 seasons. Offensively and defensively he can do things and have nights that Matt Barnes was not capable of doing/having, the issue is that he doesn't bring it the same way as Barnes on a nightly basis, so that average night is not where you want it to be.