Oklahoma City Thunder Regular Season Thread: Part IV

[bondom34]

Why the defense sucks:

http://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2016/2/26/11122056/parting-the-red-sea-why-the-defense-has-become-a-sieve

[spearsy23]

Why the defense sucks:

http://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2016/2/26/11122056/parting-the-red-sea-why-the-defense-has-become-a-sieve

It's almost like NBA pg's are good at hitting open shots. Can't blame Billy for not guessing that.

[Old Man Game]

I have a theory concerning all this 'Why is xy playing?!' ****. A guy on DT (I forgot his name) mentioned it a few weeks ago: Sunk cost fallacy.

http://www.logicallyfallacious.com/index.php/logical-fallacies/174-sunk-cost-fallacy

Reasoning that further investment is warranted on the fact that the resources already invested will be lost otherwise, not taking into consideration the overall losses involved in the further investment.

If you look at all the guys getting an head-scratching-amount of minutes, Presti traded for almost every one of them:

-Perkins: Traded for in 2011; extended same year
-Fisher: Traded for in 2012; signed as a FA in 2013
-Butler: Signed as a FA in 2014
-Waiters: Traded for in 2015
-Kanter: Traded for in 2015
-Singler: Traded for in 2015; extended same year
-Foye: Traded for in 2016

Presti gave up something other than money (that's why it's ok to bench draftpicks and freeagents like Morrow and Payen) and he doesn't want to 'lose that investment', so he wants those guys to play, no matter what.

Now this certainly didn't work for Lamb, Augustin, Brewer, Hayward and Gomes, but it certainly works for McGary and Jones as well. That's a kind of pattern I see there.

Not to be too shameless, but that was me.

[Old Man Game]

Defense is terrible. I hope to God they move Kanter this off season.

[Pillendreher]

I have a theory concerning all this 'Why is xy playing?!' ****. A guy on DT (I forgot his name) mentioned it a few weeks ago: Sunk cost fallacy.

http://www.logicallyfallacious.com/index.php/logical-fallacies/174-sunk-cost-fallacy

Reasoning that further investment is warranted on the fact that the resources already invested will be lost otherwise, not taking into consideration the overall losses involved in the further investment.

If you look at all the guys getting an head-scratching-amount of minutes, Presti traded for almost every one of them:

-Perkins: Traded for in 2011; extended same year
-Fisher: Traded for in 2012; signed as a FA in 2013
-Butler: Signed as a FA in 2014
-Waiters: Traded for in 2015
-Kanter: Traded for in 2015
-Singler: Traded for in 2015; extended same year
-Foye: Traded for in 2016

Presti gave up something other than money (that's why it's ok to bench draftpicks and freeagents like Morrow and Payen) and he doesn't want to 'lose that investment', so he wants those guys to play, no matter what.

Now this certainly didn't work for Lamb, Augustin, Brewer, Hayward and Gomes, but it certainly works for McGary and Jones as well. That's a kind of pattern I see there.

Not to be too shameless, but that was me.

Oh all credit goes to you of course!

[Pillendreher]

Why the defense sucks:

http://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2016/2/26/11122056/parting-the-red-sea-why-the-defense-has-become-a-sieve

Great article. I posted a few comments on DT concerning our defense.

[Old Man Game]

Why the defense sucks:

http://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2016/2/26/11122056/parting-the-red-sea-why-the-defense-has-become-a-sieve

Great article. I posted a few comments on DT concerning our defense.

Frustrating because the only reason they're doing this 'the big hangs back on the PnR instead of hard hedging' is to try and protect Kanter. Got to polish that turd. Don't want Presti to look stupid for re-signing him. So what if it results in a our defense becoming a total joke?

[Pillendreher]

Yeah, that really bums me out. One has to say it works for the startes tho. By far the best defensive lineup of the NBA with at least 300 minutes.

[Old Man Game]

Yeah, that really bums me out. One has to say it works for the startes tho. By far the best defensive lineup of the NBA with at least 300 minutes.

Even more reason to ditch Kanter. Even the defense they designed to help him isn't enough.

Probably also doesn't help that we have morons like Dion and Singler trying to figure this all out.

[Pillendreher]

I'm repeating myself, but still: Presti should never have matched that contract. We could have used our MLE to sign a solid Center or a solid wing and traded for a Center/wing. Just imagine if we had signed Barton to the full MLE (we weren't taxpayers without Kanter's contract) and traded for a guy like Mahinmi. Suddenly we have one of the best benches in the league and have still wiggle room in the summer of 2016.

It was a major mistake by Presti in my opinion. Kanter forced his way to a max contract and that's way too much for one of the worst defensive players in the league. Which team is gonna give up something for a guy like that? At best we'll get a TPE or do a S&T in the summer, but Atlanta sure as hell isn't gonna take on Kanter to give us Horford.

[Dadouv47]

I'm repeating myself, but still: Presti should never have matched that contract. We could have used our MLE to sign a solid Center or a solid wing and traded for a Center/wing. Just imagine if we had signed Barton to the full MLE (we weren't taxpayers without Kanter's contract) and traded for a guy like Mahinmi. Suddenly we have one of the best benches in the league and have still wiggle room in the summer of 2016.

It was a major mistake by Presti in my opinion. Kanter forced his way to a max contract and that's way too much for one of the worst defensive players in the league. Which team is gonna give up something for a guy like that? At best we'll get a TPE or do a S&T in the summer, but Atlanta sure as hell isn't gonna take on Kanter to give us Horford.

while i essentially agree with you, there are still arguments to defend presti on this one :
1. the most important one to me, is that adams was having a really bad year last season ( injury, not as good as his first year in OKC). We had a lot of hopes in him, but i think it was unpredictable that he was going to improve so much this year. Good for us, but there were many doubts.
2. The only centers available last offseason were zaza pachulia, Tyson Chandler, Javale MC Gee...Not sure it would have been better ( probably with zaza, but he's playing under carlisle and no one thought he would play so great this season).
3. Westbrook and Kanter had great chemistry together. We also had many hopes that he would really help with KD on the floor ( clearly a mistake now)

At the end, the biggest mistake was to wait so many years before trading perkins, and to trade him for a center that can't defend, which was a big gamble. Resigning him was just a unfortunate consequence of the previous mistakes.

[Pillendreher]

You know I'm of the opinion that taking gambles is OK, but building on them after they clearly backfired is not. Everybody knew that Kanter is never going to be an average defender. There's 4,5 years of data which shows that you can't just hide a guy like Kanter enough to compensate for his defensive suckiness.
His offensive output right now is as good as it's ever gonna get: Efficient scoring, high per minute production both scoring and rebounding wise (hence his high PER), against backups mostly mind you This is it for him and he's still killing every defensive effort this team has. Kanter has played a third of his minutes with Westbrook and KD on the floor, so I think we have a big enough samplize size (you know concerning lineups): With Enes Kanter on the floor, we'd rank 25th in defense league wide; with him off the floor, we'd be the 2nd best defensive team league wide.

Another fancy stat concerning our defense: Our defense worsens by 22.8 points per 100 possessions if you replace Robes and Adams by Waiters and Kanter. To put that into perspective: That's the difference between the Warriors and the 76ers in Netpoints.
Adams+Roberson two man lineup: 94.5 DRtG in over 700 minutes
Waiters+Kanter two man lineup: 107.0 DRtG in over 870 minutes

This team, man.

[Pillendreher]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/anthonyVslater/status/703639711831601156[/tweet]

[slick_watts]

At the end, the biggest mistake was to wait so many years before trading perkins, and to trade him for a center that can't defend, which was a big gamble. Resigning him was just a unfortunate consequence of the previous mistakes.

mitch mcgary had an encouraging rookie season, particularly in minutes shared with nick collison. in 173 minutes sharing the court together, primarily against reserves, mitch-collison pairing is +10pp100 including allowing a paltry 97.3pp100 on the defensive end. lineups with mitch and ibaka were also successful.

what was the problem with taking a look at mitch? why is sam presti playing randy foye over cameron payne, who is having an even better rookie season than mitch had?

matching the offer sheet for kanter wasn't bad when you consider the events leading up to it, but it amazes me that for someone who's had so much success drafting players (and so little trading for them), he is quick to make acquisitions that marginalize his picks.

[KD35Brah]

Mitch and Cam not playing at all is the 2nd worst thing about this season.

[LastChance]

Hey everyone, I decided I'd drop by and join the discussion.

I think you guys have a point here about Mitch not playing, and to be honest, I think that is one of the most disappointing things about us giving Kanter a near max deal. Sure, Mitch isn't a great defensive player. He has only had one season to learn. But like slick_watts said, him paired with Nick had some success last season. In fact, our all bench lineup of DJ-Dion-Morrow-Mitch-Nick had a DRtg of 80.1 in limited minutes. I know that isn't sustainable, but it was something to work with. Unfortunately, he has been completely shut out, and I'm afraid it's going to turn into a Pygmalion, self-fulfilling prophecy thing where his development stalls because he isn't trusted.

I think the personnel errors go even beyond that. Morrow should be playing (especially paired with Roberson), Payne should be developed, and Dion and Kanter should be minimized to specific roles. They aren't rotation quality players except in very limited situations. I'm sure I'm not saying anything that hasn't been said here many times, but it feels like we are sacrificing the future for a gamble that those guys will have their good nights when it matters. I'd rather bet the house on the development of Payne, Mitch, and Roberson than on Dion and Kanter having good playoff games.

[bondom34]

Hey everyone, I decided I'd drop by and join the discussion.

I think you guys have a point here about Mitch not playing, and to be honest, I think that is one of the most disappointing things about us giving Kanter a near max deal. Sure, Mitch isn't a great defensive player. He has only had one season to learn. But like slick_watts said, him paired with Nick had some success last season. In fact, our all bench lineup of DJ-Dion-Morrow-Mitch-Nick had a DRtg of 80.1 in limited minutes. I know that isn't sustainable, but it was something to work with. Unfortunately, he has been completely shut out, and I'm afraid it's going to turn into a Pygmalion, self-fulfilling prophecy thing where his development stalls because he isn't trusted.

I think the personnel errors go even beyond that. Morrow should be playing (especially paired with Roberson), Payne should be developed, and Dion and Kanter should be minimized to specific roles. They aren't rotation quality players except in very limited situations. I'm sure I'm not saying anything that hasn't been said here many times, but it feels like we are sacrificing the future for a gamble that those guys will have their good nights when it matters. I'd rather bet the house on the development of Payne, Mitch, and Roberson than on Dion and Kanter having good playoff games.

Glad to see you!

[bondom34]

Also agree on all of the roster issues. There almost past to be some big move this offseason, or it's going to be more of the same.

[Pillendreher]

2:40 am and I'm not ready for another episode of the Foye and Dion show. Don't mess with me at this hour, Billy.

[Cuban_Linx]

Our starting 5 really is awesome. They've already proven they can hang with GSW so nobody should be surprised by them getting hot and jumping out to an early lead. Too bad the bench gonna come in soon and mess it up