We’re playing the Bulls again, but this time at home, which sounds like it should be easier than all out war in Chicago. We have reasons to feel confident about our team, but we should not go into this game thinking that we are favorites. We are favored by 5 points on fivethirtyeight.com, but we should be skeptical (remember they has projected a 37-45 season for us in preseason!)
I don’t want to piss on the parade, but our recent success this season against the Bulls in Chicago should not obliterate from our minds the embarrassing showing we had at the end of last season, Apr 9, 2015, when we lost an important game 78-89. Whiteside’s 19 points and 16 rebounds were wasted as Wade went 4 for 20 (1 for 3 from beyond the arc) and Deng went 3 for 13 (0 for 3 from 3 pt range). Abysmal.
That team we were without Chris Bosh and Chicago was missing Jimmy Butler. That wasn’t too long ago. Some humility is required. We owe Miami a win here, and a victory also has strategic implications.
Miami is in the thick of a playoff run, and we play the Bulls twice in the next 6 games. Between them we play Phoenix, 2 games (away & home) with 76ers, and an away game with the Bucks. The last game of this 6 game set is the first leg of a back-to-back with the next night in Toronto. Altogether we have 3 home games and 4 away games.
Game 60. Tues, March 1: Bulls (@Miami) Miami favored (-5)
Game 61. Thur, March 3: Suns (@Miami) Miami favored (-12)
Game 62. Fri, March 4: 76ers (@Philadelphia) Miami favored (-5.5)
Game 63. Sun, March 6: 76ers (@Miami) Miami favored (-14)
Game 64. Wed, March 9: Bucks (@Milwaukee) Pick
Game 65. Fri, March 11: Bulls (@Chicago) Pick
Game 66. Sat, March 12: Raptors (@Toronto) Toronto favored (+8)
I feel we have a great opportunity to accumulate some wins and go into that Toronto game with a chance to make a powerful statement. We may not get all these wins, but if we do, we will have the same number of wins that Toronto has now. That’s how far we are behind them.
The Heat (33-26) play 11 of their last 23 games at Home (18-12).
Raptors schedule over same stretch (6 games of a 7 game home stand):
Game 59. Wed, March 2: Jazz (@Toronto) Toronto favored (-7.5)
Game 60. Fri, March 4: Blazers (@Toronto) Toronto favored (-4.5)
Game 61. Sun, March 6: Rockets (@Toronto) Toronto favored (-8)
Game 62. Tues, March 8: Nets (@Toronto) Toronto favored (-14)
Game 63. Thurs, March 10: Hawks (@Toronto) Toronto favored (-6.5)
Game 64. Saturday: March 12: Heat (@Toronto) Toronto favored (-8)
The Raptors (39-19) play 14 of their 24 remaining games at home (21-6).
Celtics schedule over same stretch: (5 games of 6 at home)
Game 61. Mon, Feb 29: Jazz (@Boston) Boston favored (-7.5)
Game 62. Wed, Mar 2: Blazers (@Boston) Boston favored (-5.5)
Game 63. Fri, Mar 4: Knickerbockers (@Boston) Boston favored (-11.5)
Game 64. Sat, Mar 5: Cavaliers (@Cleveland) Cleveland favored (+6)
Game 65. Wed, Mar 9: Grizzlies (@Boston) Boston favored (-5.5)
Game 66. Fri, mar 11: Rockets (@Boston) Boston favored (-6)
The Celtics (35-25) play 12 of their last 22 games at home (19-10).
So, we are playing a tougher schedule than our principal rivals over the next two weeks. Both of them are home every game except Boston’s short trip to Cleveland. If we can eek out 5 wins over these 7 games, we will make a commanding jump to separate from the Hawks, Hornets, etc. Plus, we will be able to knock the Bulls down two notches in direct confrontation.
Hence, we need a special effort from our players, and not only to win this game, but those that follow. It’s the time we have to pull away from the pack. We have a great chance here.
It’s also an opportunity for the team to grow. We need to be a better team for the playoffs. Time is running out. We need to find *that* team now.
We are playing the Bulls. Bulls are pretty stupid:
Injuries:
Heat are without Tyler Johnson, Chris Bosh, & Beno Udrih.
Celtics are missing Joaquim Noah, Jimmy Butler, & Nikola Mirotic
Derrick Rose should be back playing. He was warming up before the last game. Jimmy Butler should still be a week away. Expect to play against him in Chicago.
Intangibles:
We have won our last 2 games in Chicago. Chicago has won its last 2 games in Miami. Losing at home is not a good habit.
Tiebreakers matter. We are 1-0 this season with the Bulls, who are very much in the playoff race. Aside from these two games we play the Bulls one more time in Miami on Apr 7 (game 78).
So, yeah, let’s go HEAT!
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