Tank Fest Update Around the League

[Saberestar]

someone like Jaylen Brown or Ivan Rabb is gonna fall out of the Top 10 and McDonough scout really well those type of players.
Booker was a Top 10 (New Orleans) until the last week when they fall in love with Kaminsky....

You really see JBrown dropping? He's moving up all the mocks I've looked at

No...but we are more than three months away from the Draft's night, so everything can happen.

[AtheJ415]

It would be nice to finish worse than the Lakers and get more ping pong balls, but our schedule is easier and we will definitely "luck" into some wins. It is possible to catch the Lakers if, we lose out. That means losing to the Lakers twice, the Grizz twice, the TWolves twice, and the Nugs / Knicks once.

I don't think that we catch the Nets as they have to play the 76ers twice and TWolves once.

3rd worst is the likely outcome but 2nd worse sure would be great!

We don't need to lose out at all. All we have to do is lose both Lakers games and then lose a whopping 1 more game than LA in the rest of the other games. We have gained significant ground on them ever since Bledsoe and Knight went down. I'm not sure why that wouldn't continue. The key is losing both Lakers games. If we split the chances are still low but it's reasonably possible. If we win both there's virtually 0 chance.

We aren't going to outtank the Lakers.

Probably not at this point. Had a real chance until the Grizzlies win.

[Mr Puddles]

We don't need to lose out at all. All we have to do is lose both Lakers games and then lose a whopping 1 more game than LA in the rest of the other games. We have gained significant ground on them ever since Bledsoe and Knight went down. I'm not sure why that wouldn't continue. The key is losing both Lakers games. If we split the chances are still low but it's reasonably possible. If we win both there's virtually 0 chance.

We aren't going to outtank the Lakers.

Probably not at this point. Had a real chance until the Grizzlies win.

Out-tanking the Lakers only gives a 7% better chance of landing a top 2 pick. Question is what we'd be willing to sacrifice to improve our chances by 7% - in two scenarios would you rather:

• 1. The Suns go on a massive end of year losing streak - Len and Booker look awful during this stretch. Yes we improve our chances a bit of landing Simmons or Ingram, but they'd potentially be added to young core that finished the season with an underwhelming stretch of games.
• 2. The rejuvenated Suns play a bunch of competitive games and book some solid victories behind the strong play of Booker and Len. Victories similar to the Grizzlies game. Our chances of getting a top 2 pick are slightly worse, but at least moving forward we can be confident that regardless of the outcome of the draft lottery we can head into next year building on the end of season performances of our young studs.

While I'd love for our position in the draft lottery to be as strong as possible (naturally), I'd prefer to see more games like the Grizzlies win - even if it means staying put at a 31% chance of getting a top 2 pick.

[bwgood77]

We aren't going to outtank the Lakers.

Probably not at this point. Had a real chance until the Grizzlies win.

Out-tanking the Lakers only gives a 7% better chance of landing a top 2 pick. Question is what we'd be willing to sacrifice to improve our chances by 7% - in two scenarios would you rather:

• 1. The Suns go on a massive end of year losing streak - Len and Booker look awful during this stretch. Yes we improve our chances a bit of landing Simmons or Ingram, but they'd potentially be added to young core that finished the season with an underwhelming stretch of games.
• 2. The rejuvenated Suns play a bunch of competitive games and book some solid victories behind the strong play of Booker and Len. Victories similar to the Grizzlies game. Our chances of getting a top 2 pick are slightly worse, but at least moving forward we can be confident that regardless of the outcome of the draft lottery we can head into next year building on the end of season performances of our young studs.

While I'd love for our position in the draft lottery to be as strong as possible (naturally), I'd prefer to see more games like the Grizzlies win - even if it means staying put at a 31% chance of getting a top 2 pick.

I pretty much agree with this take. If we were talking the nfl or something, it would be a different conversation for me. To me, a 31% chance of top 2 and a 38% chance doesn't seem that much different but the percentage difference kind of depends on how you look at it.

As Mathias did point out, while discussing the difference in the chances for the #1 pick 15.6 vs 11.9 (when comparing 3rd worst to 4th worst), he mentioned that is a 30% difference, which is also correct (31% to be more exact). The 3.7 difference in the numbers divided by 11.9 = about 31% jump in chance.

So applying that match to the top 2, you would take the difference in percentages of 7, divide that by 31, your true % odds jump by about 22.5%.

But either way, we are going to need luck to move up, and that comes to chance. In both scenarios, odds say there is a better chance we move down at least one spot than up.

I want our young guys to look good and play tough. I wouldn't mind that resulting in some wins for their confidence. These blowouts have to be deflating. At least Warren is just out (so his confidence won't be shattered), and I think Booker is not a guy that lacks confidence and will work extremely hard in the off season, and I think Len is a very hard worker as well.

I just hope the bottom of the lottery next year don't have such terrible records. It would be nice if the worst team won 20 or more games, so we can still have a good chance at a top 3 pick but win 1 out of every 4 games at least. In the years before Philly started tanking, the 3rd worst record had 23 or 24 wins. Ideally we win 30+ with the 6th or 7th worst record (assuming we will still be bad and should not strive for 8th seed) and still make a jump to top 3 or better yet, #1.

But wins or losses, getting absolutely clobbered most every night cannot instill any confidence whatsoever.

[blacksun]

Wizards are surging, currently tied with the Bulls for the 13th pick.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Zhou Qi is still my favourite 'value pick', so whether we're at 12 or 18 probably doesn't matter to me.

I heard McDonough said he spent a few years as Boston's head international scout, but he hasn't yet spent a good pick on one yet, I think there's a good chance in this weaker depth domestic pool he'll have someone lined up from overseas.

And you know Sarver will be happy with the exposure to mass commercial markets.

[Mr Puddles]

Probably not at this point. Had a real chance until the Grizzlies win.

Out-tanking the Lakers only gives a 7% better chance of landing a top 2 pick. Question is what we'd be willing to sacrifice to improve our chances by 7% - in two scenarios would you rather:

• 1. The Suns go on a massive end of year losing streak - Len and Booker look awful during this stretch. Yes we improve our chances a bit of landing Simmons or Ingram, but they'd potentially be added to young core that finished the season with an underwhelming stretch of games.
• 2. The rejuvenated Suns play a bunch of competitive games and book some solid victories behind the strong play of Booker and Len. Victories similar to the Grizzlies game. Our chances of getting a top 2 pick are slightly worse, but at least moving forward we can be confident that regardless of the outcome of the draft lottery we can head into next year building on the end of season performances of our young studs.

While I'd love for our position in the draft lottery to be as strong as possible (naturally), I'd prefer to see more games like the Grizzlies win - even if it means staying put at a 31% chance of getting a top 2 pick.

I pretty much agree with this take. If we were talking the nfl or something, it would be a different conversation for me. To me, a 31% chance of top 2 and a 38% chance doesn't seem that much different but the percentage difference kind of depends on how you look at it.

As Mathias did point out, while discussing the difference in the chances for the #1 pick 15.6 vs 11.9 (when comparing 3rd worst to 4th worst), he mentioned that is a 30% difference, which is also correct (31% to be more exact). The 3.7 difference in the numbers divided by 11.9 = about 31% jump in chance.

So applying that match to the top 2, you would take the difference in percentages of 7, divide that by 31, your true % odds jump by about 22.5%.

But either way, we are going to need luck to move up, and that comes to chance. In both scenarios, odds say there is a better chance we move down at least one spot than up.

I want our young guys to look good and play tough. I wouldn't mind that resulting in some wins for their confidence. These blowouts have to be deflating. At least Warren is just out (so his confidence won't be shattered), and I think Booker is not a guy that lacks confidence and will work extremely hard in the off season, and I think Len is a very hard worker as well.

I just hope the bottom of the lottery next year don't have such terrible records. It would be nice if the worst team won 20 or more games, so we can still have a good chance at a top 3 pick but win 1 out of every 4 games at least. In the years before Philly started tanking, the 3rd worst record had 23 or 24 wins. Ideally we win 30+ with the 6th or 7th worst record (assuming we will still be bad and should not strive for 8th seed) and still make a jump to top 3 or better yet, #1.

But wins or losses, getting absolutely clobbered most every night cannot instill any confidence whatsoever.

That's making our chances sound better than they actually are though. If I buy a lottery ticket that gives me a 1 in a billion chance of hitting the jackpot - buying a second lottery ticket gives me a 100% jump in chance of winning, but that still only comes down to 2 in a billion. A 100% increase sounds fantastic, but in reality not that much has changed so the question becomes how much you're willing to sacrifice to buy that second ticket.

The same applies here. A 31% jump in chance sounds bigger than it is. In reality it means that in a bucket of 100 lottery balls, we have 38 balls instead of 31.

[Mr Puddles]

Zhou Qi is still my favourite 'value pick', so whether we're at 12 or 18 probably doesn't matter to me.

I heard McDonough said he spent a few years as Boston's head international scout, but he hasn't yet spent a good pick on one yet, I think there's a good chance in this weaker depth domestic pool he'll have someone lined up from overseas.

And you know Sarver will be happy with the exposure to mass commercial markets.

I live in China and have watched Zhou Qi play quite a bit. A friend of mine (who has connections in the CBA) is convinced that he's 22 years old not 19. That's a bit worrying to me, considering that body wise he makes Porzingis look like Karl Malone in comparison. Last night, former Suns great Haddadi was pushing Zhou Qi around like he wasn't there.

Great shooting touch, incredible size, very mobile and has good potential to become a good (pick and roll) defender, but many red flags IMO. Would take him with the Cleveland pick, not the Washington pick.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but Lawawu is the international prospect we should be targeting with the Wizards pick.

[AtheJ415]

Probably not at this point. Had a real chance until the Grizzlies win.

Out-tanking the Lakers only gives a 7% better chance of landing a top 2 pick. Question is what we'd be willing to sacrifice to improve our chances by 7% - in two scenarios would you rather:

• 1. The Suns go on a massive end of year losing streak - Len and Booker look awful during this stretch. Yes we improve our chances a bit of landing Simmons or Ingram, but they'd potentially be added to young core that finished the season with an underwhelming stretch of games.
• 2. The rejuvenated Suns play a bunch of competitive games and book some solid victories behind the strong play of Booker and Len. Victories similar to the Grizzlies game. Our chances of getting a top 2 pick are slightly worse, but at least moving forward we can be confident that regardless of the outcome of the draft lottery we can head into next year building on the end of season performances of our young studs.

While I'd love for our position in the draft lottery to be as strong as possible (naturally), I'd prefer to see more games like the Grizzlies win - even if it means staying put at a 31% chance of getting a top 2 pick.

I pretty much agree with this take. If we were talking the nfl or something, it would be a different conversation for me. To me, a 31% chance of top 2 and a 38% chance doesn't seem that much different but the percentage difference kind of depends on how you look at it.

As Mathias did point out, while discussing the difference in the chances for the #1 pick 15.6 vs 11.9 (when comparing 3rd worst to 4th worst), he mentioned that is a 30% difference, which is also correct (31% to be more exact). The 3.7 difference in the numbers divided by 11.9 = about 31% jump in chance.

So applying that match to the top 2, you would take the difference in percentages of 7, divide that by 31, your true % odds jump by about 22.5%.

But either way, we are going to need luck to move up, and that comes to chance. In both scenarios, odds say there is a better chance we move down at least one spot than up.

I want our young guys to look good and play tough. I wouldn't mind that resulting in some wins for their confidence. These blowouts have to be deflating. At least Warren is just out (so his confidence won't be shattered), and I think Booker is not a guy that lacks confidence and will work extremely hard in the off season, and I think Len is a very hard worker as well.

I just hope the bottom of the lottery next year don't have such terrible records. It would be nice if the worst team won 20 or more games, so we can still have a good chance at a top 3 pick but win 1 out of every 4 games at least. In the years before Philly started tanking, the 3rd worst record had 23 or 24 wins. Ideally we win 30+ with the 6th or 7th worst record (assuming we will still be bad and should not strive for 8th seed) and still make a jump to top 3 or better yet, #1.

But wins or losses, getting absolutely clobbered most every night cannot instill any confidence whatsoever.

It's not just about the lottery balls though. Having the higher slot settles all picks not in the top 3. That is significant. For instance, if 2 teams jump up in the lottery, we'd be looking at 4 instead of 5 had we caught the Lakers. It's one slot, but it can make a big difference. We want our youngsters to play well, but young guys playing well doesn't translate to wins in this league. That's why vet teams make the playoffs while youth-driven teams typically don't. Our vets suck. I don't see the youngsters playing well as necessarily hurting our tanking, such that we can't hope for losses while our youngsters play well.

Getting to pick 6 or 7 would be a disaster imo. In order to do that, our vets would have to play well, which doesn't necessarily help our core develop, and we'd be seeing a big drop in talent come draft time. Yes, the ideal would be to finish with more wins and still luck into the lottery, but since you aren't likely to win the lottery unless you fall in the top 2, you should want the safety net that comes with the rest of the lottery being decided by reverse record.

[bwgood77]

Out-tanking the Lakers only gives a 7% better chance of landing a top 2 pick. Question is what we'd be willing to sacrifice to improve our chances by 7% - in two scenarios would you rather:

• 1. The Suns go on a massive end of year losing streak - Len and Booker look awful during this stretch. Yes we improve our chances a bit of landing Simmons or Ingram, but they'd potentially be added to young core that finished the season with an underwhelming stretch of games.
• 2. The rejuvenated Suns play a bunch of competitive games and book some solid victories behind the strong play of Booker and Len. Victories similar to the Grizzlies game. Our chances of getting a top 2 pick are slightly worse, but at least moving forward we can be confident that regardless of the outcome of the draft lottery we can head into next year building on the end of season performances of our young studs.

While I'd love for our position in the draft lottery to be as strong as possible (naturally), I'd prefer to see more games like the Grizzlies win - even if it means staying put at a 31% chance of getting a top 2 pick.

I pretty much agree with this take. If we were talking the nfl or something, it would be a different conversation for me. To me, a 31% chance of top 2 and a 38% chance doesn't seem that much different but the percentage difference kind of depends on how you look at it.

As Mathias did point out, while discussing the difference in the chances for the #1 pick 15.6 vs 11.9 (when comparing 3rd worst to 4th worst), he mentioned that is a 30% difference, which is also correct (31% to be more exact). The 3.7 difference in the numbers divided by 11.9 = about 31% jump in chance.

So applying that match to the top 2, you would take the difference in percentages of 7, divide that by 31, your true % odds jump by about 22.5%.

But either way, we are going to need luck to move up, and that comes to chance. In both scenarios, odds say there is a better chance we move down at least one spot than up.

I want our young guys to look good and play tough. I wouldn't mind that resulting in some wins for their confidence. These blowouts have to be deflating. At least Warren is just out (so his confidence won't be shattered), and I think Booker is not a guy that lacks confidence and will work extremely hard in the off season, and I think Len is a very hard worker as well.

I just hope the bottom of the lottery next year don't have such terrible records. It would be nice if the worst team won 20 or more games, so we can still have a good chance at a top 3 pick but win 1 out of every 4 games at least. In the years before Philly started tanking, the 3rd worst record had 23 or 24 wins. Ideally we win 30+ with the 6th or 7th worst record (assuming we will still be bad and should not strive for 8th seed) and still make a jump to top 3 or better yet, #1.

But wins or losses, getting absolutely clobbered most every night cannot instill any confidence whatsoever.

That's making our chances sound better than they actually are though. If I buy a lottery ticket that gives me a 1 in a billion chance of hitting the jackpot - buying a second lottery ticket gives me a 100% jump in chance of winning, but that still only comes down to 2 in a billion. A 100% increase sounds fantastic, but in reality not that much has changed so the question becomes how much you're willing to sacrifice to buy that second ticket.

The same applies here. A 31% jump in chance sounds bigger than it is. In reality it means that in a bucket of 100 lottery balls, we have 38 balls instead of 31.

That's kind of the way I think about it, but it's funny you point out that lottery because I have mentioned that your odds double if you buy two lottery tickets to people before.

So that's why I think it is important to look at both and I understand both points of view. While this is on a MUCH smaller scale than the lottery, I look at it more like this.

I compare it drawing with 1000 tickets in it. And some guy bought 250, another guy bought 199, another guy bought 156, all the way down to some guy buying 1 or 2.

Even though the guy who bought the most has the BEST chance, and a 25% better chance than the next guy, the odds are still against both winning, and it doesn't seem all THAT much difference to me. With so many games left, and not THAT much of a difference, I'm not going to put a lot of hope every night in a loss when, as a fan, I want to see our players play well. Now if it gets down to 1 game or even 3 or 4 games, I might REALLY start pulling for us to lose, especially if we trail by one game.

[AtheJ415]

Wizards are surging, currently tied with the Bulls for the 13th pick.

We really need Utah to pick it up, and for Orlando to continue to play well.

[bwgood77]

Out-tanking the Lakers only gives a 7% better chance of landing a top 2 pick. Question is what we'd be willing to sacrifice to improve our chances by 7% - in two scenarios would you rather:

• 1. The Suns go on a massive end of year losing streak - Len and Booker look awful during this stretch. Yes we improve our chances a bit of landing Simmons or Ingram, but they'd potentially be added to young core that finished the season with an underwhelming stretch of games.
• 2. The rejuvenated Suns play a bunch of competitive games and book some solid victories behind the strong play of Booker and Len. Victories similar to the Grizzlies game. Our chances of getting a top 2 pick are slightly worse, but at least moving forward we can be confident that regardless of the outcome of the draft lottery we can head into next year building on the end of season performances of our young studs.

While I'd love for our position in the draft lottery to be as strong as possible (naturally), I'd prefer to see more games like the Grizzlies win - even if it means staying put at a 31% chance of getting a top 2 pick.

I pretty much agree with this take. If we were talking the nfl or something, it would be a different conversation for me. To me, a 31% chance of top 2 and a 38% chance doesn't seem that much different but the percentage difference kind of depends on how you look at it.

As Mathias did point out, while discussing the difference in the chances for the #1 pick 15.6 vs 11.9 (when comparing 3rd worst to 4th worst), he mentioned that is a 30% difference, which is also correct (31% to be more exact). The 3.7 difference in the numbers divided by 11.9 = about 31% jump in chance.

So applying that match to the top 2, you would take the difference in percentages of 7, divide that by 31, your true % odds jump by about 22.5%.

But either way, we are going to need luck to move up, and that comes to chance. In both scenarios, odds say there is a better chance we move down at least one spot than up.

I want our young guys to look good and play tough. I wouldn't mind that resulting in some wins for their confidence. These blowouts have to be deflating. At least Warren is just out (so his confidence won't be shattered), and I think Booker is not a guy that lacks confidence and will work extremely hard in the off season, and I think Len is a very hard worker as well.

I just hope the bottom of the lottery next year don't have such terrible records. It would be nice if the worst team won 20 or more games, so we can still have a good chance at a top 3 pick but win 1 out of every 4 games at least. In the years before Philly started tanking, the 3rd worst record had 23 or 24 wins. Ideally we win 30+ with the 6th or 7th worst record (assuming we will still be bad and should not strive for 8th seed) and still make a jump to top 3 or better yet, #1.

But wins or losses, getting absolutely clobbered most every night cannot instill any confidence whatsoever.

It's not just about the lottery balls though. Having the higher slot settles all picks not in the top 3. That is significant. For instance, if 2 teams jump up in the lottery, we'd be looking at 4 instead of 5 had we caught the Lakers. It's one slot, but it can make a big difference. We want our youngsters to play well, but young guys playing well doesn't translate to wins in this league. That's why vet teams make the playoffs while youth-driven teams typically don't. Our vets suck. I don't see the youngsters playing well as necessarily hurting our tanking, such that we can't hope for losses while our youngsters play well.

Getting to pick 6 or 7 would be a disaster imo. In order to do that, our vets would have to play well, which doesn't necessarily help our core develop, and we'd be seeing a big drop in talent come draft time. Yes, the ideal would be to finish with more wins and still luck into the lottery, but since you aren't likely to win the lottery unless you fall in the top 2, you should want the safety net that comes with the rest of the lottery being decided by reverse record.

I understand you think there is a clear top 5, but I think there is a big drop off either after 1, 2 or 3. But definitely after 3. So from my perspective, 4-7 isn't THAT much difference, unless Bender slides. But if he does, there may be a reason, so it might not matter then either (from my perspective).

I'm not sure what McD's tiers will look like, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if there is a tier that is like 4-7 with not a whole lot of separation. And chances are, no PF in that group, unless you put Ellenson in there.

[bwgood77]

Wizards are surging, currently tied with the Bulls for the 13th pick.

Yep, and only half game out of playoffs. If they land in the playoffs, there is a pretty good chance we get the 16th pick, because the 8th seed in the east currently has a better record than the 8th seed in the west. I kind of felt they would come on and that we would fall somewhere in the 12-17 range. Once Butler returns, the Bulls should get better, and Detroit and Charlotte playing well.

[bwgood77]

Wizards are surging, currently tied with the Bulls for the 13th pick.

We really need Utah to pick it up, and for Orlando to continue to play well.

How pissed would you be if not only we finished with the 4th worst record, and three teams jumped us dropping us to 7th, but also, somehow Washington jumps into the top 3, enabling them to keep their pick and we end up with the 7th and 28th picks?

And then of course Washington would get like the 2 seed in the east next year.

[Mr Puddles]

I pretty much agree with this take. If we were talking the nfl or something, it would be a different conversation for me. To me, a 31% chance of top 2 and a 38% chance doesn't seem that much different but the percentage difference kind of depends on how you look at it.

As Mathias did point out, while discussing the difference in the chances for the #1 pick 15.6 vs 11.9 (when comparing 3rd worst to 4th worst), he mentioned that is a 30% difference, which is also correct (31% to be more exact). The 3.7 difference in the numbers divided by 11.9 = about 31% jump in chance.

So applying that match to the top 2, you would take the difference in percentages of 7, divide that by 31, your true % odds jump by about 22.5%.

But either way, we are going to need luck to move up, and that comes to chance. In both scenarios, odds say there is a better chance we move down at least one spot than up.

I want our young guys to look good and play tough. I wouldn't mind that resulting in some wins for their confidence. These blowouts have to be deflating. At least Warren is just out (so his confidence won't be shattered), and I think Booker is not a guy that lacks confidence and will work extremely hard in the off season, and I think Len is a very hard worker as well.

I just hope the bottom of the lottery next year don't have such terrible records. It would be nice if the worst team won 20 or more games, so we can still have a good chance at a top 3 pick but win 1 out of every 4 games at least. In the years before Philly started tanking, the 3rd worst record had 23 or 24 wins. Ideally we win 30+ with the 6th or 7th worst record (assuming we will still be bad and should not strive for 8th seed) and still make a jump to top 3 or better yet, #1.

But wins or losses, getting absolutely clobbered most every night cannot instill any confidence whatsoever.

It's not just about the lottery balls though. Having the higher slot settles all picks not in the top 3. That is significant. For instance, if 2 teams jump up in the lottery, we'd be looking at 4 instead of 5 had we caught the Lakers. It's one slot, but it can make a big difference. We want our youngsters to play well, but young guys playing well doesn't translate to wins in this league. That's why vet teams make the playoffs while youth-driven teams typically don't. Our vets suck. I don't see the youngsters playing well as necessarily hurting our tanking, such that we can't hope for losses while our youngsters play well.

Getting to pick 6 or 7 would be a disaster imo. In order to do that, our vets would have to play well, which doesn't necessarily help our core develop, and we'd be seeing a big drop in talent come draft time. Yes, the ideal would be to finish with more wins and still luck into the lottery, but since you aren't likely to win the lottery unless you fall in the top 2, you should want the safety net that comes with the rest of the lottery being decided by reverse record.

I understand you think there is a clear top 5, but I think there is a big drop off either after 1, 2 or 3. But definitely after 3. So from my perspective, 4-7 isn't THAT much difference, unless Bender slides. But if he does, there may be a reason, so it might not matter then either (from my perspective).

I'm not sure what McD's tiers will look like, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if there is a tier that is like 4-7 with not a whole lot of separation. And chances are, no PF in that group, unless you put Ellenson in there.

Agree, that's the way I look at it as well. I feel that after top 2 the next few picks are a dice shoot. Of the remaining players, Bender is probably at the top of the list due to potential as well as him being a PF - but I wouldn't go as far as calling him the consensus #3, at least not in the way that Simmons and Ingram are. Maybe things will change over the next few months, but as it stands right now the #3 pick really doesn't have that much more value than the #7 IMO.

Anyway, assuming the Suns go 2-22 over their next 22 games, the Lakers would have to go 7-13 over their remaining 20 for us to over take them, so I think it's safe to say it this point that baring a miracle we'll have the bottom #3 seed.

[bwgood77]

Anyway, assuming the Suns go 2-22 over their next 22 games, the Lakers would have to go 7-13 over their remaining 20 for us to over take them, so I think it's safe to say it this point that baring a miracle we'll have the bottom #3 seed.

I think it's more like if we go 2-20, they have to go 6-14.

[blacksun]

Wizards are surging, currently tied with the Bulls for the 13th pick.

We really need Utah to pick it up, and for Orlando to continue to play well.

How pissed would you be if not only we finished with the 4th worst record, and three teams jumped us dropping us to 7th, but also, somehow Washington jumps into the top 3, enabling them to keep their pick and we end up with the 7th and 28th picks?

And then of course Washington would get like the 2 seed in the east next year.

Knowing the Suns' luck, it wouldnt surprise me

I fully expect the pick to be in the late teens range, barring something crazy like a John Wall injury or something.

[Mr Puddles]

Anyway, assuming the Suns go 2-22 over their next 22 games, the Lakers would have to go 7-13 over their remaining 20 for us to over take them, so I think it's safe to say it this point that baring a miracle we'll have the bottom #3 seed.

I think it's more like if we go 2-20, they have to go 6-14.

You mean to say going 2-22 in 22 games is not correct, and that 7 plus 12 doesn't add up to 18? Glad to see that after spending a small fortune on graduate and post-graduate eduction I still haven't quite mastered the intricate mathematics of addition and subtraction.

[AtheJ415]

Anyway, assuming the Suns go 2-22 over their next 22 games, the Lakers would have to go 7-13 over their remaining 20 for us to over take them, so I think it's safe to say it this point that baring a miracle we'll have the bottom #3 seed.

I think it's more like if we go 2-20, they have to go 6-14.

You mean to say going 2-22 in 22 games is not correct, and that 7 plus 12 doesn't add up to 18? Glad to see that after spending a small fortune on graduate and post-graduate eduction I still haven't quite mastered the intricate mathematics of addition and subtraction.

If we lose both those games though against LA, it hampers them with wins.

So, it would have been (prior to Memphis loss), something like us going 3-20 and them going 4-15 or something like that.

Now, it's much more unlikely, but we could still find a way so long as we lost those head to head ones.

[AtheJ415]

It's not just about the lottery balls though. Having the higher slot settles all picks not in the top 3. That is significant. For instance, if 2 teams jump up in the lottery, we'd be looking at 4 instead of 5 had we caught the Lakers. It's one slot, but it can make a big difference. We want our youngsters to play well, but young guys playing well doesn't translate to wins in this league. That's why vet teams make the playoffs while youth-driven teams typically don't. Our vets suck. I don't see the youngsters playing well as necessarily hurting our tanking, such that we can't hope for losses while our youngsters play well.

Getting to pick 6 or 7 would be a disaster imo. In order to do that, our vets would have to play well, which doesn't necessarily help our core develop, and we'd be seeing a big drop in talent come draft time. Yes, the ideal would be to finish with more wins and still luck into the lottery, but since you aren't likely to win the lottery unless you fall in the top 2, you should want the safety net that comes with the rest of the lottery being decided by reverse record.

I understand you think there is a clear top 5, but I think there is a big drop off either after 1, 2 or 3. But definitely after 3. So from my perspective, 4-7 isn't THAT much difference, unless Bender slides. But if he does, there may be a reason, so it might not matter then either (from my perspective).

I'm not sure what McD's tiers will look like, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if there is a tier that is like 4-7 with not a whole lot of separation. And chances are, no PF in that group, unless you put Ellenson in there.

Agree, that's the way I look at it as well. I feel that after top 2 the next few picks are a dice shoot. Of the remaining players, Bender is probably at the top of the list due to potential as well as him being a PF - but I wouldn't go as far as calling him the consensus #3, at least not in the way that Simmons and Ingram are. Maybe things will change over the next few months, but as it stands right now the #3 pick really doesn't have that much more value than the #7 IMO.

Anyway, assuming the Suns go 2-22 over their next 22 games, the Lakers would have to go 7-13 over their remaining 20 for us to over take them, so I think it's safe to say it this point that baring a miracle we'll have the bottom #3 seed.

All drafts are crap shoots. You can get Jimmy Butler late, Kawhi Leonard late lottery, or Deandre Jordan in the 2nd round. You still want your team to have the opportunity to select the guy they want. Better picks matter in all situations.