What's Alex Len's ceiling?

[JonFromVA]

Looking at 5-man units vs starting/non-starting and plucking out 1 players effectiveness is very problematic. I don't have time to break this down, but if they're starting Plumlee, he's playing with Dragic and Bledsoe and Markieff (and Len would be with Thomas or Green). DUH they'd be more effective.

As of the date of their last update, all I'm talking here are the top two units for the Suns:

G.Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Markieff.Morris-Len
G.Dragic-Bledsoe-Marcus.Morris-Markieff.Morris-Plumlee

You can also look at the #3 unit:

G.Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Markieff.Morris-Plumlee

Which is identical to the #1 Len unit, but with Plumlee. It hasn't performed as well as either of the top two, but its 56.5% "Win%" is only a hair off the 57.1% number of the Len unit.

Looks to me like a pick your poison situation. The Suns are slightly better on D with Len, and slightly worse on O; otoh, they're slightly better on O with Plumlee and slightly worse on D.

It looks to me like the real problem for the Suns is what they do when Markieff Morris is off the floor, but admittedly 82games' numbers are now nearly 2-weeks out of date, so if you're seeing Len playing real well lately, we'll see it when they update.

As a starter his net rating is 4.3, while coming off the bench it was -3.5.
A net rating represents the player's time ON THE COURT.
Len is simply more intelligent than Plumlee on both ends, plus he's 5 years younger. The team has struggled with Plumlee starting, fell to 12-14, and that's why he was demoted. Len has proved he's simply a better player.

I'm not sure what you're looking at, but NET ratings usually represent the difference between a team's performance with a given player on the court and his time OFF THE COURT. Of course a player is ON and OFF the court with all sorts of different players and substitution patterns - which is why it's instructive to look at a player's performance in specific units.

Looks like Len was pulled early from the Orlando game and finished with a -1, while Morris finished +14, and Knight +16. Just one game, but clearly another example of the Suns not needing Len to perform well. Also, the Suns are now 3-5 since trading Plumlee. Moving the deck chairs around can affect wins and loses in interesting ways depending on where a team is struggling, but removing a deck chair (losing depth) doesn't help unless you've got somebody more effective to replace those minutes.

[76ciology]

ilgauskas?

[Zion Wembanyama]

Arvydas Sabonis...

[cyclix]

Alex Len ceiling is Hassan Whiteside's *****

[Johnlac1]

ilgauskas?

llgauskas was a plodder. Len is an athlete.

[Orens]

As of the date of their last update, all I'm talking here are the top two units for the Suns:

G.Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Markieff.Morris-Len
G.Dragic-Bledsoe-Marcus.Morris-Markieff.Morris-Plumlee

You can also look at the #3 unit:

G.Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Markieff.Morris-Plumlee

Which is identical to the #1 Len unit, but with Plumlee. It hasn't performed as well as either of the top two, but its 56.5% "Win%" is only a hair off the 57.1% number of the Len unit.

Looks to me like a pick your poison situation. The Suns are slightly better on D with Len, and slightly worse on O; otoh, they're slightly better on O with Plumlee and slightly worse on D.

It looks to me like the real problem for the Suns is what they do when Markieff Morris is off the floor, but admittedly 82games' numbers are now nearly 2-weeks out of date, so if you're seeing Len playing real well lately, we'll see it when they update.

As a starter his net rating is 4.3, while coming off the bench it was -3.5.
A net rating represents the player's time ON THE COURT.
Len is simply more intelligent than Plumlee on both ends, plus he's 5 years younger. The team has struggled with Plumlee starting, fell to 12-14, and that's why he was demoted. Len has proved he's simply a better player.

I'm not sure what you're looking at, but NET ratings usually represent the difference between a team's performance with a given player on the court and his time OFF THE COURT. Of course a player is ON and OFF the court with all sorts of different players and substitution patterns - which is why it's instructive to look at a player's performance in specific units.

Looks like Len was pulled early from the Orlando game and finished with a -1, while Morris finished +14, and Knight +16. Just one game, but clearly another example of the Suns not needing Len to perform well. Also, the Suns are now 3-5 since trading Plumlee. Moving the deck chairs around can affect wins and loses in interesting ways depending on where a team is struggling, but removing a deck chair (losing depth) doesn't help unless you've got somebody more effective to replace those minutes.

"Since trading Plumlee"? You've got to be kidding me!
They traded their top two scorers, two other guards, plus a backup C who was a throw-in into the deal. In those games you mentioned, they worked to integrate Brandon Knight, Archie Goodwin and TJ Warren into their system.
If Plumlee is better than Len, then he wouldn't have been demoted to the bench, right?
If Plumlee is such a good C, why did the Suns traded for Brandan Wright?
If Plumlee really was worth keeping, how come his minutes imploded until he asked for a trade? Why nobody was willing to give up a pick for him? And how is he really doing in Milwaukee nowadays?
As for the net rating - the Suns had a clear disadvantage until Len got the starting C spot, then they won 14 of 18. With Len as a started, the Suns scores 4.3 points more than their opponents per 100 possessions.
When he sat, they were outscored by 3.5 points per 100 possessions. That makes sense for anyone who actually watched the games, so he doesn't have to rely on small sample-size 5-player units who are missing the point. The Suns love what Len brings them. They had a clear problem with their backup C, so that's why they traded for Wright.

Len was ineffective last night, it happens with young C's from time to time. Totally acceptable IMO. That's why the Suns brought in a veteran big, they couldn't count on Plumlee - who is only one year younger then Wright.
Len did finish with a +4, not -1, but that's irrelevant anyway. Wright has played 23:19. Nobody is missing Plumlee.

This Suns season has been a freaking roller-coaster. Since mid-December, SEVEN players were shipped out via trades and four different players has joined the team. Add in three wing rookies and sophomores who are trying to find their grip in the rotation, and you got a tough situation. Alex Len has been by far the brightest spot of this season for the Suns. The kid has a bright future in this league.

Alex Len ceiling is Hassan Whiteside's *****

Fightside is a douche. No wonder he was out of the league already.
Four years older, still has some major question marks, played less career games than Len has this season and earned about 30% of him in one more year. Considering his temper, we'll see if he makes it to that contract.

[thamadkant]

He sucks. I've watched about 5-7 Suns game and I don't get the hype. Gobert has more potential and is better right now. But I could be wrong since I haven't watched a lot of games.

He sucks?

Lol, maybe last year.

This year, when starting, he has been amazing.
Considering he is surrounded with scoring-mentality players, he doesnt much touches at all.. but the rebounding and shot blocking has been great.

Gobert too, he is going to be a league leader in blocks, along with Len.

He definitely doesn't suck, Len may very well end up being a very good player for many years, but I hate when people do what you did in your last sentence. Why exactly is he going to be a league leader in blocks? Because PER36 says so? Those numbers rarely if ever translate when players start getting 33+ MPG consistently. Not to mention as 7 footers get older, they tend to suffer more & more injuries & lose that athleticism that allows them to block so many shots. They become more savvy about the game & learn that they can have a bigger overall impact on defense by not blocking as many shots, but instead altering them, so that they don't leave their feet & remain in better defensive position.

Like I said, Len looks like he can be a very good player & I'm not taking anything away from him. But don't assume he's ever going to block more shots than he is right now.

Because Len is not afraid of getting dunked on and he challenges a lot of shots. When I say league leader, I dont mean FIRST in blocks... but more like the top 5, just like how League Pass show league leaders per category, they show the top 5 players or more per category... I classify those as "leaders".

I see Gobert averaging close to 3 blocks with Len closer to 2.25 blocks sometime in the next 2-3 seasons... or whenever they get consistent 30-32 minute game time.

Suns also have a matador perimeter defense, so a lot of opposition players gets in the paint or big men gets a shot near the rim where Len always challenges.

[JonFromVA]

As for the net rating - the Suns had a clear disadvantage until Len got the starting C spot, then they won 14 of 18. With Len as a started, the Suns scores 4.3 points more than their opponents per 100 possessions.
When he sat, they were outscored by 3.5 points per 100 possessions. That makes sense for anyone who actually watched the games, so he doesn't have to rely on small sample-size 5-player units who are missing the point. The Suns love what Len brings them. They had a clear problem with their backup C, so that's why they traded for Wright.

Nobody ever said stats had to make "sense" to those watching the game, but it still happened, and those minutes with the starting groups are not "small samples". Heck, if you don't like picking groups where everything else is held about as equal as possible and prefer bulk stats ... why not just go to the fact that the Suns are +0.4 with Len on the court, and -1.3 net .vs. +1.7 with Plumlee on the floor and +0.9 net? Why are you limiting your view to "since Len got the starting C spot" ?

And if you're going to hold up 14 of 18 wins as an achievement, don't be surprised when someone points out that streak appears to be over. Why are you willing to blame the losses on other events, but yet you want to pin the wins on Len?

btw, 82games still hasn't updated since 2/18.

[Orens]

As for the net rating - the Suns had a clear disadvantage until Len got the starting C spot, then they won 14 of 18. With Len as a started, the Suns scores 4.3 points more than their opponents per 100 possessions.
When he sat, they were outscored by 3.5 points per 100 possessions. That makes sense for anyone who actually watched the games, so he doesn't have to rely on small sample-size 5-player units who are missing the point. The Suns love what Len brings them. They had a clear problem with their backup C, so that's why they traded for Wright.

Nobody ever said stats had to make "sense" to those watching the game, but it still happened, and those minutes with the starting groups are not "small samples". Heck, if you don't like picking groups where everything else is held about as equal as possible and prefer bulk stats ... why not just go to the fact that the Suns are +0.4 with Len on the court, and -1.3 net .vs. +1.7 with Plumlee on the floor and +0.9 net? Why are you limiting your view to "since Len got the starting C spot" ?

And if you're going to hold up 14 of 18 wins as an achievement, don't be surprised when someone points out that streak appears to be over. Why are you willing to blame the losses on other events, but yet you want to pin the wins on Len?

btw, 82games still hasn't updated since 2/18.

So go to NBA.com/stats.
There were three 5-player Suns lineups which played 100+ minutes together this season:
Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Kieff-Len: +9.4 net rating
Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Kieff-Plumlee: +5.2 net rating
Bledsoe-Dragic-Mook-Kieff-Plumlee: +4.2 net rating
That's a big enough sample size for me.
WIth or without considering the lineups - as starters, Plumlee has had a -0.5 net rating in 568 minutes while Len has a 4.3 net rating in 827 minutes. There's no point trying to compare them.

The Suns not only have won more since moving on to Len, they have played better overall. They had that good streak right when Len became a starter and Dragic came back after an injury, because they have played better overall. Of course there were other contributors to those wins, but he has became a major factor. He's been the paint presence, the rim protector and the rebounder the Suns sorely missed anytime they started a game, were muscled by the opponents' frontcourt and had to deal with early deficits: -2.4 1st quarter net rating with Plumlee starting and 14.6 4th quarter net rating. Fun fact: Plumlee hasn't played AT ALL in 'clutch' situations (5 minutes or less in the 4th/OT, 5 points diff. or less. Len has played 61 such minutes)

By the way, I'm limiting my view because Len has missed training camp after breaking his pinkie, and when he came back he had to play with the "Chuck Wagon" unit of Thomas, Green Tolliver and either Tucker or Morrii, who were trying to shoot their way out of those deficits Plumlee's starting five has got them into. We were hoping for a change in the starting lineup for about a month, as it became clear Len is developing and could be more effective as a starter, and the result of that change was even better than expected. Once again - he's not a stat padder or whatever, he's directly helping his team win games.

[JonFromVA]

As for the net rating - the Suns had a clear disadvantage until Len got the starting C spot, then they won 14 of 18. With Len as a started, the Suns scores 4.3 points more than their opponents per 100 possessions.
When he sat, they were outscored by 3.5 points per 100 possessions. That makes sense for anyone who actually watched the games, so he doesn't have to rely on small sample-size 5-player units who are missing the point. The Suns love what Len brings them. They had a clear problem with their backup C, so that's why they traded for Wright.

Nobody ever said stats had to make "sense" to those watching the game, but it still happened, and those minutes with the starting groups are not "small samples". Heck, if you don't like picking groups where everything else is held about as equal as possible and prefer bulk stats ... why not just go to the fact that the Suns are +0.4 with Len on the court, and -1.3 net .vs. +1.7 with Plumlee on the floor and +0.9 net? Why are you limiting your view to "since Len got the starting C spot" ?

And if you're going to hold up 14 of 18 wins as an achievement, don't be surprised when someone points out that streak appears to be over. Why are you willing to blame the losses on other events, but yet you want to pin the wins on Len?

btw, 82games still hasn't updated since 2/18.

So go to NBA.com/stats.
There were three 5-player Suns lineups which played 100+ minutes together this season:
Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Kieff-Len: +9.4 net rating
Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Kieff-Plumlee: +5.2 net rating
Bledsoe-Dragic-Mook-Kieff-Plumlee: +4.2 net rating
That's a big enough sample size for me.
WIth or without considering the lineups - as starters, Plumlee has had a -0.5 net rating in 568 minutes while Len has a 4.3 net rating in 827 minutes. There's no point trying to compare them.

The Suns not only have won more since moving on to Len, they have played better overall. They had that good streak right when Len became a starter and Dragic came back after an injury, because they have played better overall. Of course there were other contributors to those wins, but he has became a major factor. He's been the paint presence, the rim protector and the rebounder the Suns sorely missed anytime they started a game, were muscled by the opponents' frontcourt and had to deal with early deficits: -2.4 1st quarter net rating with Plumlee starting and 14.6 4th quarter net rating. Fun fact: Plumlee hasn't played AT ALL in 'clutch' situations (5 minutes or less in the 4th/OT, 5 points diff. or less. Len has played 61 such minutes)

By the way, I'm limiting my view because Len has missed training camp after breaking his pinkie, and when he came back he had to play with the "Chuck Wagon" unit of Thomas, Green Tolliver and either Tucker or Morrii, who were trying to shoot their way out of those deficits Plumlee's starting five has got them into. We were hoping for a change in the starting lineup for about a month, as it became clear Len is developing and could be more effective as a starter, and the result of that change was even better than expected. Once again - he's not a stat padder or whatever, he's directly helping his team win games.

Don't just look at the +/- rating though, it can be polluted by a really good game or a really bad one. The W-L shows how often the group outscored their opposition. Plumlee was part of a 17-9 group and a 16-11 group; while Len was part of a 19-16 group and a 9-8 group.

Your first "chuckwagon group" was 5-3, so they only could have cleaned up after a mess left by the first unit 2x at most.

At least according to nba.com ...

[JMac1]

Alex Len ceiling is Hassan Whiteside's *****

Len is 21 and Whiteside is 25

[Revived]

He's been balling. Had a nice dunk against best shot blocker in the league yesterday too



[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8ttyFnTV2E&ebc=ANyPxKqK0_zF1wBicYq1-8SjsK8naLsyPbaWJUmYbL4OGoQTVkc-lyr9EfFf7SPmKAdnq449NiSw4AagJABZ0bmlexo2B08zbQ[/youtube]

[Revived]

33 and 16 tonight.

[chefy12]

gonna lose my fantasy matchup because of this guy smh

[mowcrowbar]

Definitely over 7 feet and 1 inches.

[Dan Z]

The Suns future is not as bad as some seem to think. Len and Booker both have great potential going forward. TJ Warren is good. Bledsoe and Knight should be healthy next year. Plus they'll have a high lotto pick.

[King Ken]

Like most young players, they need confidence and a good fit

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[Revived]

Dropped 20 pts & 16 rebounds last night.

He's been balling since they switched him to PF playing alongside Chandler.

[Revived]

Alex Len recently has produced like a top NBA center.

In official NBA box scores, Alex Len has been a power forward for the past eight games because he has been starting alongside center Tyson Chandler.

But the numbers to the right of his name in those box scores have been as strong as any center in the NBA for that time.

Only Miami’s Hassan Whiteside has a longer active streak of double-digit rebounding games than Len, who has grabbed at least 10 rebounds in each of the eight games since he joined Chandler in the starting lineup. During that time since. Feb. 27, Len’s average of 13.5 rebounds per game trails only Detroit’s Andre Drummond (15.5), Utah’s Rudy Gobert (13.8), Whiteside (13.7) and the Los Angeles Clipper’s DeAndre Jordan (13.7).

Len had been in a shooting slump until his 26-point, 13-rebound game Saturday night at Golden State, where he made 10 of 18 shots. But even with the shooting slump, his scoring average of 18.3 points per game has been the fifth best among centers since Feb. 27. He has done it over that eight-game stretch by getting to the line for 8.7 free throw attempts per game, which ranks as the sixth most of any NBA player in that time.

Len’s progress was shown in an early-game play when he came off Andrew Bogut defensively to help on Draymond Green, who had been left alone in the post. Green passed to a cutting Harrison Barnes, whose missed shot was affected by Len sliding over to challenge him. And he grabbed the rebound.

Warriors coach Steve Kerr called Len’s play “fantastic.”

“I think Alex has overcome that wall very quickly,” Suns interim head coach Earl Watson said. “He played well. He played great. Unfortunately, he got in some foul trouble.”

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nba/suns/2016/03/14/alex-lens-stats-among-top-nba-centers-since-starting/81776000/