Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Wizenheimer]

You're right, I left out the defense, though I touched on that in my original post regarding Parsons. Sorry, Batum has had 1 good season of shooting from the field in the last 4 years (was poor the season before, and has been poor the 2 seasons after). He's a below average 3 point shooter, and has been for 2 years now. Hell, Aminu is shooting the same % from 3 as Batum. Overall, I think they're comparable in terms of value, it just depends on what you're looking for at SF

Most Mavs fans believe it's a foregone conclusion that he opts out, and Blazers Edge just had a blurb about Parsons possibly being intriguing to the Blazers, but that Parsons will likely have a large list of potential suitors.

just so you know, Batum's career average from three is 36%. This year, the league average is 35% and over the last few seasons it's been in the 35-36% range. Batum's career 2 point mark is 51.6% and the league average is around 49%. So, I don't think he's below average as a shooter, but certainly not far enough above average to consider him anything but average. Batum is like a lot of 3-pont shooters: when he gets about to the 95% level on assisted three's and 40% of his three's are corner three's, he shoots close to 40%

In regards to an offensive Center, I say that mainly because I feel that Olshey believes that Vonleh has the potential at PF, and will run with him again next year. I guess we'll just hope that he puts in some serious work in the offseason. With the term "offensive" I guess I mean someone who can put up 14-18 ppg, and take some pressure off the guards. I know that Parsons and Monroe (or Howard or Horford) are high usage, but I don't think that's a bad thing. I view taking some pressure off of CJ as the lone option after Lillard as a good thing. Who's actually interested in coming to Portland this offseason? who knows? I know our history suggests that we won't be able to bring anyone, but maybe with this overachieving, having a star in Lillard, and CJ, they can convince some worthwhile players. This is going to be a very interesting offseason for sure. I have NO idea which way Olshey is going to go. Hell, I still like the idea of trading CJ for Okafor or Noel, but I don't see that having a snowball's chance in hell of happening with Olshey.

I don't know what Olshey is going to do either but my biggest fear is that he's going to resign both Crabbe and Leonard to big deals. I think that would be a double-disaster. Kind of like an earthquake swallowing your new $40,000 car in the parking lot at the beach preventing you from escaping the tsunami that followed. And that fate might be better the watching Meyers in a Blazer uniform the next 4 years

as far as overachieving attracting a star, consider: the Blazers overachieved dramatically and won a playoff series. From that their free agent attraction was so strong they signed 32 year old Chris Kaman and 34 year old Steve Blake. Such is the reward for overachieving in Portland

[Village Idiot]

I would love to have Nic back as our starting PF, not at SF. I recall Nic having some monster rebounding games when Aldridge was out and he started at PF. His stretch offensive ability and mobility, along with his play making make him nearly ideal in that role in the post-Aldridge Stotts offense.

[BlackMamba]

I would love for Crabbe and Harkless to stay with the Blazers.

Definitely the Blazers need an upgrade at the PF/C position, someone that can be an offensive threat and help Vonleh push it further.

[Norm2953]

I understand Portland has a potential $41 Million in cap space in a league awash in cap space has some
things they can sell to free agents which is a top 5 PG in the league and an organization that is stable
with a solid coach in Terry Stotts. It would be interesting if the team went after a point forward to fill
the role Nic played for the team.

[Dame Lizard]

I hope Bismack Biyombo (FA) and Jeff Withey (struggling for playing time in Utah) are high on our priority lists.

Bismack would be so awesome for this team, his 65%FT shooting (he even hit that nice short jumper today) would blend in well with line-up (i.e. not vulnerable to hack-a-player) and his rim protection would be perfect!

We can obviously lock up Bismack on a multi-year deal as well (where-as Withey would cost something and only have 1 season left until UFA).

[Wizenheimer]

I hope Bismack Biyombo (FA) and Jeff Withey (struggling for playing time in Utah) are high on our priority lists.

Bismack would be so awesome for this team, his 65%FT shooting (he even hit that nice short jumper today) would blend in well with line-up (i.e. not vulnerable to hack-a-player) and his rim protection would be perfect!

We can obviously lock up Bismack on a multi-year deal as well (where-as Withey would cost something and only have 1 season left until UFA).

Biyombo would be a good add, generically, but who goes, Davis or Plumlee?

the reason I ask that is because of Stotts. He just about refuses to play Davis and Plumlee together...it's probably happened for less then 15 minutes the entire season. He obviously considers both of them C's in his system, not PF's at all. Biyombo is another offensively challenged big man who can't hit a shot outside of 5' from the rim. The only place he'd fit in the Stotts offense is in a place currently held by Davis or Plumlee

there's just not room on a Blazer roster under Stotts for all three players, IMO. Rememebr, he's the coach still insisting by his actions that Meyers is a PF

[Jsun947]

I'm concerned about Parson's health long term but there is no denying his skill set would be valuable in Stott's system. He's a rich man's Leuer and you know how I feel about Leuer! Hell, I'd take them both!

I like players who can shoot the three well, can attack off the dribble, pass, don't give up size, have good ball IQ, and can play team defense.

He's expected to get a max deal which would start at around 22 mil give or take a few.

I think we would keep Crabbe if we could convince him to wait and sign until after we use our cap space and would be very unlikely to retain Henderson.

With Crabbe, Parsons, and Aminu able to play the 3 I don't think it would make a lot of sense to retain Harkless either unless he's really cheap.

I don't see any reason to retain Meyers if we can replace him with a 4 that can actually stretch the floor.

Lillard/McCollum/?
McCollum/Crabbe/Connaughton
Parsons/Aminu/Crabbe/Montero
Leuer/Aminu/Vonleh/Alexander
Plumlee/Davis/?/Leuer

This would leave us with around 10 mil in cap space for a back up PG and a guy like Withey.

[Norm2953]

I've written about Portland needing to find their Draymond Green. He's not likely on their roster
and not likely to be found either in free agency or via trade since our pick is likely going
to Denver.

If our search goes awry, I'd like to see Vonleh get a shot at being our small ball center for he
has more offensive skills than Plumlee and Davis with the most upside. I could see in such
lineups Aminu playing PF and Portland going after a point forward that is a strong defender
with size. Hidden in Portland's big win vs GS was Vonleh's very solid game as a small ball
center. If nothing else he's a solid FT shooter.

[Village Idiot]

Terrence Jones intrigues me as a PF/small ball C. Last season he excelled at center when Howard was out and provided good rim protection. He's a decent 3 point shooter but is best catching the ball on cuts towards the basket. Our offense is ideal for his skill set as opposed to Houston's herky jerky Harden dominated offense. Being from Portland is a plus. Considering he's not a getting any playing time makes it unlikely they match

[Goldbum]

I gotta say, Jones seems like he would be a great get. He will likely cost half as much as Meyers and contribute more. This season has put him in that N.O. sweet spot, young under valued with potential upside. Maybe someone pays him, but I doubt it. Terrance being a local is just icing on the cake.

[Masterfully]

Poll question:
Who would you rather throw 4 years/$20 million per at?
[] Harrison Barnes
[] Chandler Parsons
[] Nic Batum
[] wut? i luv Aminu!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=barneha02&y2=2016&p2=parsoch01&y3=2016&p3=batumni01&y4=2016&p4=aminual01&p5=&p6=

[tester551]

Poll question:
Who would you rather throw 4 years/$20 million per at?
[] Harrison Barnes
[] Chandler Parsons
[] Nic Batum
[] wut? i luv Aminu!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=barneha02&y2=2016&p2=parsoch01&y3=2016&p3=batumni01&y4=2016&p4=aminual01&p5=&p6=

Out of those options, Parsons is the best one for Portland.

[Agenda42]

Poll question:
Who would you rather throw 4 years/$20 million per at?
[] Harrison Barnes
[] Chandler Parsons
[] Nic Batum
[] wut? i luv Aminu!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=barneha02&y2=2016&p2=parsoch01&y3=2016&p3=batumni01&y4=2016&p4=aminual01&p5=&p6=

Parsons is the obviously best name here, but none of these guys are worth $20M per for Portland.

[Wizenheimer]

Poll question:
Who would you rather throw 4 years/$20 million per at?
[] Harrison Barnes
[] Chandler Parsons
[] Nic Batum
[] wut? i luv Aminu!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=barneha02&y2=2016&p2=parsoch01&y3=2016&p3=batumni01&y4=2016&p4=aminual01&p5=&p6=

Parsons is the obviously best name here, but none of these guys are worth $20M per for Portland.

I'm a little confused here

it looks like you're saying, in this post and others, that Parsons is not worth 20 million/year but CJ is worth 25 million/year. Is that correct or did i get you wrong in another discussion?

[Jsun947]

I'd rather use our cap space this offseason than not if we can get a good player even if that involves giving Paraon's 20 mil per. I don't think he would come here though.

[Agenda42]

I'm a little confused here

it looks like you're saying, in this post and others, that Parsons is not worth 20 million/year but CJ is worth 25 million/year. Is that correct or did i get you wrong in another discussion?

CJ is much more valuable than Parsons. Parsons is a 16 PER player at age 27. McCollum is a 17.5 PER player at age 24.

Further, I'm already assuming CJ signs for big money from Portland. Given that, you can't sign Parsons for big money. Your remaining big ticket item must be a big.

[Masterfully]

You can have 4 big ticket items. Portland CAN sign Whiteside and Parsons for $20 million each and resign CJ. It will just hinder their ability to keep guys like Plumlee, Crabbe, Harkless, Henderson, etc.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm a little confused here

it looks like you're saying, in this post and others, that Parsons is not worth 20 million/year but CJ is worth 25 million/year. Is that correct or did i get you wrong in another discussion?

CJ is much more valuable than Parsons. Parsons is a 16 PER player at age 27. McCollum is a 17.5 PER player at age 24.

I'll disagree with that, starting with wondering how PER suddenly became the gold standard of measuring a player's value? CJ has a higher PER then Parsons, but that's mainly because PER is a stat propelled by minutes, usage and scoring. CJ scores 4.7 more points/36 (he averages 5.4 more minutes) then Parsons but it takes him 5.6 more FGA's to achieve that differential. CJ's usage rate is 33% higher then Parsons. Other advanced stats don't give CJ an edge. Parsons has significantly better marks in TS% and Box Plus/Minus, and slight edges in winshares/48 and value over replacement.

but if we go with your gauge, PER, and say it determines a player's value, then that 10% differential in PER CJ holds over Parsons that gives him "much more value", has to mean that the 28% differential in PER 25 year old Greg Monroe holds over CJ give Monroe much much more value then CJ....no?....or how about 23 year old Enes Kanter (per 23.6) holding a 34% PER differential over CJ ?... is the value differential on the same scale you set for CJ/Parsons?

the point is that PER alone even with player age as a sidekick seems a questionable gauge of player value. I mean, Kemba Walker is only 25 and his PER is 21.7 compared to CJ's 17.6. Is he a lot more valuable? or Kenneth Faried with a PER of 21.4?

just for fun, with an age cutoff of 27:

http://bkref.com/tiny/kXyWU

now, I'm not dense and I've discussed things enough with you to know that PER is probably only one of your criteria (which probably includes the 'bird-in-the-hand factor). It just seemed to be a questionable way of stating your case

Further, I'm already assuming CJ signs for big money from Portland. Given that, you can't sign Parsons for big money. Your remaining big ticket item must be a big.

I'm assuming Olshey re-signs CJ for big money too, and I'm not real happy about it, mainly because I have a suspicion that "big" will be really big.

I'm not sure the other big ticket item needs to be a big man. Golden State is doing pretty well without a high impact big, although I suppose you could say Green is a big. If Kevin Durant wanted to sign in Portland, I'd bet the Blazers would make it work. If they could land Paul George or Kahwi Leonard to play SF, they would probably make it work as well

I get what you're driving at though. Some big who is an interior threat on offense as well as a solid defender would help a lot. Thus, my Al Horford pipe dream. Somebody that would force Portland's opponents to cover the whole floor including the paint. Right now, defending the paint against the Blazers is probably low on any opponents scouting report

[Agenda42]

You can have 4 big ticket items. Portland CAN sign Whiteside and Parsons for $20 million each and resign CJ. It will just hinder their ability to keep guys like Plumlee, Crabbe, Harkless, Henderson, etc.

A roster like that goes nowhere unless you can acquire guys willing to take the veteran's minimum that can still play.

Portland isn't going to be one of those teams. Would recommend you look for three guys to pay big money and then spend the fourth guy's money on spots 4 through 7 on the roster.

[Agenda42]

the point is that PER alone even with player age as a sidekick seems a questionable gauge of player value. I mean, Kemba Walker is only 25 and his PER is 21.7 compared to CJ's 17.6. Is he a lot more valuable? or Kenneth Faried with a PER of 21.4?

Walker and Faried are both a cut above McCollum. We could have had Faried, too. I remember everyone and his dog clamoring for that pick to be made. QQ.

If the Blazers had Faried and Lillard, they would be in a much more flexible position entering this free agency period. You can sign almost anybody with those two. With McCollum and Lillard, half the interesting players are a bad fit for you.

now, I'm not dense and I've discussed things enough with you to know that PER is probably only one of your criteria (which probably includes the 'bird-in-the-hand factor). It just seemed to be a questionable way of stating your case

Possibly PER overstates McCollum's advantage, but it's the shortest shorthand for the argument at hand. CJ is a better, younger player than Parsons. Of the two factors, younger is the most notable. McCollum is a third year player and this is his first year of big minutes. He's more likely to improve than Parsons.

I'm not sure the other big ticket item needs to be a big man. Golden State is doing pretty well without a high impact big, although I suppose you could say Green is a big. If Kevin Durant wanted to sign in Portland, I'd bet the Blazers would make it work. If they could land Paul George or Kahwi Leonard to play SF, they would probably make it work as well

Sure, I'd be happy to sign an obviously elite player. All of the guys you just listed are good enough to be "a basketball player" and not "a small forward". All things being equal, though, the Blazers want a big. It doesn't have to be a back to the basket big. Draymond Green would be absolutely ideal, if you could find me another one of those. Or LeBron James. That'd be nice too.

I get what you're driving at though. Some big who is an interior threat on offense as well as a solid defender would help a lot. Thus, my Al Horford pipe dream. Somebody that would force Portland's opponents to cover the whole floor including the paint. Right now, defending the paint against the Blazers is probably low on any opponents scouting report

Absolutely love this idea.