Hennigan's Drafts Re-Drafted

LBPTarHeel27 · Post #1 » by **LBPTarHeel27** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 8:23 pm

Rebuilds are tough and uncomfortable. Owners, GM's, Coaches, Players, Fans...no one enjoys the process of a full rebuild. When it comes to fans, some have a higher pain tolerance than others. After the dust settled, everyone agreed that we not only did the best we could in the Dwight Howard trade, but we actually ended up winning the deal, overall. It was a great start to what was going to be a complete and total rebuild. Two of our most valuable pieces came from that deal, Vucevic and what eventually turned in to Fournier. Considering the circumstances, we hit the ground running just about as fast as we could.

Here we are, heading toward Hennigan's 5th draft as the Magic GM. When you go through a rebuild like this, drafts are crucial. Every team needs a superstar to win but it takes the cooperation of the ping pong balls to make that happen...as well as the talent being on the board. Three of the four drafts, we were in a great position to get the top pick. We came up empty each time. As far as we know, we have not landed our franchise player. If things had been done differently and teams drafted the BPA with the knowledge we have now...would we be in a better position?

2012
1. Pelicans: Anthony Davis
2. Hornets: Damian Lillard
3. Wizards: Andre Drummond
4. Cavaliers: Draymond Green
5. Kings: Bradley Beal
6. Trailblazers: Khris Middleton
7. Warriors: Harrison Barnes
8. Raptors: Jae Crowder
9. Pistons: Evan Fournier
10. Pelicans: Festus Ezeli
11. Trailblazers: Jared Sullinger
12. Rockets: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
13. Suns: Terrence Ross
14. Bucks: Will Barton
15. Sixers: Dion Waiters
16. Rockets: Austin Rivers
17. Mavericks: Miles Plumlee
18. Rockets: Quincy Acy
19. Magic: Andrew Nicholson

Obviously the last 10 picks or so are pretty subjective but it is just to show that there really was no winning that situation in the draft. The 1st half of the 2nd round was much stronger than the back half of the first round.

2013
1. Cavaliers: Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Magic: Victor Oladipo

You could make an argument for Nerlens Noel based on our current needs as a team but I have not been overly impressed by him. I think he still has a long way to go to be a rim protector you can trust and I am not sure his true prime lasts very long, due to the knees. I could understand someone arguing against that, though.

2014
1. Cavaliers: Andrew Wiggins
2. Bucks: Jabari Parker
3. Sixers: Aaron Gordon
4. Magic: Elfrid Payton
5. Jazz: Zach LaVine
6. Nets: Jordan Clarkson
7. Lakers: Nikola Jokic
8. Kings: Julius Randle
9. Hornets: Jusuf Nurkic
10. Sixers: Rodney Hood
11. Nuggets: Doug McDermott
12. Magic: Noah Vonleh

A situation where we would potentially end up getting Elf + a different raw big man that has not shown the signs that Gordon has. There are other options to think about but I we don't end up with a better combo than we currently have.

2015
1. Wolves: KA Towns
2. Lakers: Jahlil Okafor
3. Sixers: Kristaps Porzingis
4. Knicks: Devin Booker
5. Magic: Myles Turner

This one still needs time and it also depends on how you feel about Mario. Turner has shown he is ready to contribute in many ways and still has room to get better. We like to think Mario has a higher ceiling but at this point, it seems like Turner would be the pick. However...would he play well with Gordon? Either way, I don't think this re-draft puts us in any better of a position than we are in now.

The overall point is that we played the hand we were dealt and we came out with a fairly good looking pot. We have a lot of flexibility to continue to grow "organically" and we do have some guys with a high ceiling.

Take a look at Giannis Antetokounmpo. We are heading towards the end of his third season and he has erupted. Up until a few weeks ago, he was just showing flashes...much like a couple of our guys. It took nearly three full seasons for this raw, athletic freak to break out.

Patience. We want this rebuild done correctly. Spending on players who may elevate us to an Eastern Contender but nowhere near Golden State or San Antonio's level...well that does us no good. We want to see a championship banner hung. If that takes another 5+ years to get there, I am fine with that...even if it means painful seasons along the way. I'd prefer that over a few 2nd round appearances.

seeingstars · Post #2 » by **seeingstars** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 8:49 pm

I like your 2014 redraft but the 2015 is lacking. I feel youve grossly undervalued hezonja. He and Mudiay belong above Turner and Booker

PennytoShaq · Post #3 » by **PennytoShaq** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 9:15 pm

There is no doubt that Rob is very good at drafting talent. He took a shot on Mario which I like, because Mario has the star ability in him. It just boils down to if he unlocks it or not, but I expect we will see a big improvement next season.

A perfect example of yr1-yr2 improvement is Aaron Gordon. A guy booed by many and complained about is now growing into an 18/12 type of avg at PF probably within 1-2 years. Just a perfect draft pick at that position.

The only finger we can point is really at lady luck - we have been screwed in the lottery.

BadWolf · Post #4 » by **BadWolf** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 9:32 pm

2013 - GoBear

OrlChamps2030 · Post #5 » by **OrlChamps2030** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 9:50 pm

Noel over Oladipo. Gotta keep in mind Oladipo is 2 years older as well. I know people aren't going to like this though.

Gobert too but that shouldnt be very controversial

Hennigan nailed the 2014 draft though

ralphie9898 · Post #6 » by **ralphie9898** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 9:58 pm

Yeah Hennigan has drafted well. The 2013 draft was weak but we made out just as well as anyone did. We did very well in the 2014 draft which you can still question that re-draft as there is still a lot of room for that class to grow to. Redrafting the 2015 class is very questionable. That one can't be judged very accurately now.

MoMM · Post #7 » by **MoMM** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 10:18 pm

He drafts well, that's a fact, but we didn't had much luck in the lottery, so any HoF caliber or high-impact players were out of reach.

EAS Law · Post #8 » by **EAS Law** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 10:40 pm

I like the OP.

I think the most important thing to remember is that not one player drafted after any of our picks is that "franchise guy" that we need.

Sure you could make cases that x player is arguably better here or there than y player, but there isn't a single instance where anyone could say, "wow, we could have had...."

Even Gobert, Nerlens or whomever else, none of the above is a franchise guy that is more than a complementary piece. I'd argue that on the entire list all the way through, only Davis, Lillard, and maybe Towns are true franchise guys at this point at least. Second tier maybe Drummond.

I still stand behind the sentiment that Draymond Green wouldn't be who he is without Curry and Klay.

Anyway, nice list. We just have to keep plugging away and hope that Rob gets his guy eventually. He's a great evaluator of talent.

drsd · Post #9 » by **drsd** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 10:53 pm

seeingstars wrote:I like your 2014 redraft but the 2015 is lacking. I feel youve grossly undervalued hezonja. He and Mudiay belong above Turner and Booker

Turner is an impressive rookie presence.

..

Post #10 » by **Bensational** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 11:08 pm

I love hypothetical re-drafts.

Imagine if we'd traded down with Minnesota for the #9 and #26 picks. We could've come away with Giannis + Gobert, or McCollum + Gobert.

Vuc/Gobert
Gordon
Giannis
Fournier/Mario
Elf

or

Vuc/Gobert
Gordon
Fournier/Mario
McCollum
Elf

Now that our picks are falling back in the lottery, I hope Henny has eyes on multiple diamonds in the rough who could be great value options.

rcklsscognition · Post #11 » by **rcklsscognition** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 11:14 pm

Elfrid 4th is a joke, right? I agree with the premise which I brought up in the other thread. We struck out but not like we could have done much differently with different drafting. Just didn't work out for us.

Post #12 » by **Bensational** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:24 am

rcklsscognition wrote:Elfrid 4th is a joke, right? I agree with the premise which I brought up in the other thread. We struck out but not like we could have done much differently with different drafting. Just didn't work out for us.

Who do you take over Elf? Clarkson? Randle?

I'm sure if you gave Elf the free reign those guys have, his numbers would be equally inflated.

LaVine has the skills to be much better, I'm not convinced he has the head for it, though.

toquito · Post #13 » by **toquito** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:46 am

Bensational wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:Elfrid 4th is a joke, right? I agree with the premise which I brought up in the other thread. We struck out but not like we could have done much differently with different drafting. Just didn't work out for us.

Who do you take over Elf? Clarkson? Randle?

Randle, Hood, Lavine, and Jokic would probably be taken before Payton if there was a re-draft. I don't know about Clarkson.

I'm sure if you gave Elf the free reign those guys have, his numbers would be equally inflated.

I really doubt it. He has no jumpshot.

rcklsscognition · Post #14 » by **rcklsscognition** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:46 am

Bensational wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:Elfrid 4th is a joke, right? I agree with the premise which I brought up in the other thread. We struck out but not like we could have done much differently with different drafting. Just didn't work out for us.

Who do you take over Elf? Clarkson? Randle?

I'm sure if you gave Elf the free reign those guys have, his numbers would be equally inflated.

LaVine has the skills to be much better, I'm not convinced he has the head for it, though.

Would have kept Saric IRL. Re-draft would have had just about everyone on that list above Payton.

LBPTarHeel27 · Post #15 » by **LBPTarHeel27** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 3:32 am

rcklsscognition wrote:
Bensational wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:Elfrid 4th is a joke, right? I agree with the premise which I brought up in the other thread. We struck out but not like we could have done much differently with different drafting. Just didn't work out for us.

Who do you take over Elf? Clarkson? Randle?

I'm sure if you gave Elf the free reign those guys have, his numbers would be equally inflated.

LaVine has the skills to be much better, I'm not convinced he has the head for it, though.

Would have kept Saric IRL. Re-draft would have had just about everyone on that list above Payton.

The way I looked at it with Elf was basically that there were a few guys that you could argue and put there....but at the end of the day, we actually did have a high interest in Elf. No one has been that much better or shown that much more potential to make the pick change.

PennytoShaq · Post #16 » by **PennytoShaq** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 3:37 am

Worst case Elfrid is our backup PG. That's the worst case. Honestly not that bad for a #10 pick for a team who desperately needed defense and athleticism at the position.

fendilim · Post #17 » by **fendilim** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 3:40 am

Henni drafts well, no doubt. But half-ass tanking certainly isn't helping.

Post #18 » by **Bensational** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 3:51 am

toquito wrote:
Bensational wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:Elfrid 4th is a joke, right? I agree with the premise which I brought up in the other thread. We struck out but not like we could have done much differently with different drafting. Just didn't work out for us.

Who do you take over Elf? Clarkson? Randle?

Randle, Hood, Lavine, and Jokic would probably be taken before Payton if there was a re-draft. I don't know about Clarkson.

I'm sure if you gave Elf the free reign those guys have, his numbers would be equally inflated.

I really doubt it. He has no jumpshot.

Alright, realistically talking, there's probably a case to be made for taking any player over him depending on the team and need. And I can see valid arguments for taking all of those guys (except Hood) over Elf.

But you've also got to allow for the fact that they're given free reign. Think about how strong Elf closed last season when he was allowed to play like that? It doesn't often equate to winning basketball, though. If you put Elf on Philadelphia right now and let him run, score and shoot a bunch of 3's, I'm sure he'd give you equally impressive numbers with just as many losses.

EAS Law · Post #19 » by **EAS Law** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 4:48 am

Again, saying they'd choose player XYZ over any of our guys is splitting hairs. Absolutely no one taken after any of our picks has enough impact by themselves to say we really made a mistake.

Orlwillbeback · Post #20 » by **Orlwillbeback** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 5:12 am

Bensational wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:Elfrid 4th is a joke, right? I agree with the premise which I brought up in the other thread. We struck out but not like we could have done much differently with different drafting. Just didn't work out for us.

Who do you take over Elf? Clarkson? Randle?

I'm sure if you gave Elf the free reign those guys have, his numbers would be equally inflated.

LaVine has the skills to be much better, I'm not convinced he has the head for it, though.