Who was more certain of position going into the NBA? Ben Simmons or Giannis

[scrabbarista]

I don't think the poll is all that surprising. There isn't anything that Simmons does that is arguably better than Giannis, Giannis has been dominating NBA competition, and has a significant length and athleticism advantage.

He's a better passer, ball-handler, rebounder, and post-up player when adjusted for age. He's arguably a better transition player. So that's five things.

[skones]

I don't think the poll is all that surprising. There isn't anything that Simmons does that is arguably better than Giannis, Giannis has been dominating NBA competition, and has a significant length and athleticism advantage.

He's a better passer, ball-handler, rebounder, and post-up player when adjusted for age. He's arguably a better transition player. So that's five things.

Seems like a stretch.

[ReasonablySober]

I don't think the poll is all that surprising. There isn't anything that Simmons does that is arguably better than Giannis, Giannis has been dominating NBA competition, and has a significant length and athleticism advantage.

He's a better passer, ball-handler, rebounder, and post-up player when adjusted for age. He's arguably a better transition player. So that's five things.

Adjusted for age? Are we also adjusting for experience? Simmons has been playing his whole life, Giannis has been playing for seven years and is only a couple years removed from playing in a lower level greek league.

[scrabbarista]

I don't think the poll is all that surprising. There isn't anything that Simmons does that is arguably better than Giannis, Giannis has been dominating NBA competition, and has a significant length and athleticism advantage.

He's a better passer, ball-handler, rebounder, and post-up player when adjusted for age. He's arguably a better transition player. So that's five things.

Adjusted for age? Are we also adjusting for experience? Simmons has been playing his whole life, Giannis has been playing for seven years and is only a couple years removed from playing in a lower level greek league.

He's three years removed from a level of competition from which Simmons is one year removed, at an age when players improve at a faster rate than at any other time in their lives. The difference between two and a half years in the NBA and no years in the NBA is pretty gigantic.

Fair point about Giannis being relatively new to the game, though. I don't think Simmons is the rock-solid choice here, but he's the guy I'd take, and I think he's the right pick.

[scrabbarista]

I don't think the poll is all that surprising. There isn't anything that Simmons does that is arguably better than Giannis, Giannis has been dominating NBA competition, and has a significant length and athleticism advantage.

He's a better passer, ball-handler, rebounder, and post-up player when adjusted for age. He's arguably a better transition player. So that's five things.

Seems like a stretch.

It's not.

[skones]

He's a better passer, ball-handler, rebounder, and post-up player when adjusted for age. He's arguably a better transition player. So that's five things.

Seems like a stretch.

It's not.

Passer and ball handler I get. The rest, however, involves a lot of assumptions in translation on your part, thus a stretch. One just happens to be playing like a burgeoning super-star right now while the other isn't in the league yet.

[el maestro]

Giannis is argubaly better in all of this things than Simmons.

[scrabbarista]

Giannis is argubaly better in all of this things than Simmons.

Maybe so, but it's arguable both ways.

[scrabbarista]

Seems like a stretch.

It's not.

Passer and ball handler I get. The rest, however, involves a lot of assumptions in translation on your part, thus a stretch. One just happens to be playing like a burgeoning super-star right now while the other isn't in the league yet.

He's averaging more rebounds at LSU than Shaq did. He has the fastest time ever recorded from baseline to baseline at the Nike Hoops Summit. That includes all positions. He handles the ball effortlessly with either hand at top speed and he can dunk through defenders on the break. I'm not saying it's no contest. It clearly is, especially in light of Giannis' last month. I'm just saying I'd take Simmons, and I think he's pretty underrated on most of these threads. Give him two or three months in the league, and then maybe some of us will have a different perspective.

EDIT: He recorded a time faster than anyone in the history of DraftExpress' database in the 3/4 court sprint, not at the Nike Hoops Summit. Point being, he's absurdly fast.

[el maestro]

Giannis is argubaly better in all of this things than Simmons.

Maybe so, but it's arguable both ways.

Giannis is better transition player for sure, and its not even close.He is also better in post-up and as a rebounder, but I can take it as a really, really stretch opinion to claim Simmons is better.Passer and ball-handler are on Ben's side due to small sample of Point Giannis, but if he is able to keep it up, and I think he is, than Giannis is better in that too.

[scrabbarista]

Giannis is argubaly better in all of this things than Simmons.

Maybe so, but it's arguable both ways.

Giannis is better transition player for sure, and its not even close.He is also better in post-up and as a rebounder, but I can take it as a really, really stretch opinion to claim Simmons is better.Passer and ball-handler are on Ben's side due to small sample of Point Giannis, but if he is able to keep it up, and I think he is, than Giannis is better in that too.

Thanks for sharing your opinion.

[skones]

It's not.

Passer and ball handler I get. The rest, however, involves a lot of assumptions in translation on your part, thus a stretch. One just happens to be playing like a burgeoning super-star right now while the other isn't in the league yet.

He's averaging more rebounds at LSU than Shaq did. He has the fastest time ever recorded from baseline to baseline at the Nike Hoops Summit. That includes all positions. He handles the ball effortlessly with either hand at top speed, and he can dunk through defenders on the break. I'm not saying it's no contest. It clearly is, especially in light of Giannis' last month. I'm just saying I'd take Simmons, and I think he's pretty underrate on most of these threads. Give him two or three months in the league, and then maybe some of us will have a different perspective.

And Kevin Durant averaged over 11 rebounds at Texas and Michael Beasley averaged over 12. It is not a forgone conclusion that Simmons is a dynamite rebounder at the NBA level, particularly given his lack of length and questionable effort at times. The idea that Simmons is a better rebounder because he's pulling down x rebounds at LSU is unfounded.

[scrabbarista]

Passer and ball handler I get. The rest, however, involves a lot of assumptions in translation on your part, thus a stretch. One just happens to be playing like a burgeoning super-star right now while the other isn't in the league yet.

He's averaging more rebounds at LSU than Shaq did. He has the fastest time ever recorded from baseline to baseline at the Nike Hoops Summit. That includes all positions. He handles the ball effortlessly with either hand at top speed, and he can dunk through defenders on the break. I'm not saying it's no contest. It clearly is, especially in light of Giannis' last month. I'm just saying I'd take Simmons, and I think he's pretty underrate on most of these threads. Give him two or three months in the league, and then maybe some of us will have a different perspective.

And Kevin Durant averaged over 11 rebounds at Texas and Michael Beasley averaged over 12. It is not a forgone conclusion that Simmons is a dynamite rebounder at the NBA level, particularly given his lack of length and questionable effort at times. The idea that Simmons is a better rebounder because he's pulling down x rebounds at LSU is unfounded.

I'm sure you're aware of the familiar trope that rebounding tends to translate to the NBA better than any other skill. You can't just cherry pick two guys and think it destroys hundreds of examples to the contrary, besides the fact that both of those guys are good rebounders from the small-forward position in the NBA. Saying Simmons has a lack of strength and questionable effort just leads me to believe you've never even seen the guy. He's one of the strongest 19-year-olds I've ever seen and is ferocious on the glass. It's never been his effort that's been in question, but rather his unwillingness to shoot.

[scrabbarista]

Look man, I love Giannis. He's a unique talent and one of the most likable characters in the game. And I wouldn't be shocked if he wins a freaking MVP award some day. I'm just saying, my faith in Ben Simmons is that strong. I think the best-case scenario with Simmons is basically something like Magic's Lakers in the 80's. I'm not passing on that for very many guys.

[The-Power]

I don't think the poll is all that surprising. There isn't anything that Simmons does that is arguably better than Giannis, Giannis has been dominating NBA competition, and has a significant length and athleticism advantage.

He's a better passer, ball-handler, rebounder, and post-up player when adjusted for age. He's arguably a better transition player. So that's five things.

You make that sound as if that's a given when it's really not.

1. Better passer: Well, strictly looking at pure skill, you're probably right as of now. Anyway, passing is only useful as far as it contributes to the overall playmaking-ability. We don't know exactly how Giannis stacks up against the best players yet but we don't know with Simmons either. We have actual data for Giannis as the main playmaker in this league, though, although the sample is quite small. Over the past 11 games - since he got to play PG for his team - his team has a 108.0 on-court ORTG (102.0 off-court ORTG) with him having a 33.9 AST% and a 2.97 AST/TO ratio. Those are great numbers and although we must still be cautious and patient and although we can't take the numbers at face value, it's certainly not a given that Simmons is a superior overall playmaker. Sure, he's younger but given Giannis learning-curve and the limited time he got to play PG until the end of february, that's definitely not enough to be the deciding factor.

2. Better ball handler: More fluid, probably, although Giannis has amazingly good handles for a guy of his size. But again, ball handling is only useful insofar as it contributes to something greater (scoring, playmaking, dealing with pressure). Until we have evidence that the superior ball handling - which by the way is very subjective - amounts to something more, I don't really care about it. If Giannis happens to struggle with scoring or playmaking in the future due to insufficient handles, while Simmons proves to be a great scorer and/or playmaker specifically because he's got great handles, we can have this talk again.

3. Better rebounder: In college, he definitely has the more impressive numbers. Given that rebounding ability (!) usually translates well into the NBA, I'm ready to give him that for now. Anyway, that said, rebounding has a lot to do with team strategy and assigned roles, which makes it impossible to make definite statements in this regard just yet. What we do know is that Giannis is extremely long, is willing to take contact and gained a lot of muscles to be able to play against the bigger players in this league. He's quite a good rebounder, too, whenever it's his task to go for the rebound.

4. Better post-up player: True, Giannis doesn't operate in the post very much and isn't very effective when he does at the moment. He can punish smaller players and he has some playmaking skills out of the post but overall his game isn't built around post-ups. How effective Simmons can be as a post-up player in the NBA and how much it adds to his overall value remains to be seen. His enormous shooting struggles, however, are going to be a problem even if he's operating in the post and it's also not like Simmons is some sort of post-up savant himself.

5. Arguably better transition player: Wow, I'm glad you added the word 'arguably' here. See, Simmons is a great transition player, it's his biggest strength coming into the NBA, but Giannis is a special transition player as well and he actually already dominates his NBA competition in this aspect of the game. Every time the Bucks have the chance to play fast in transition, they do and they always look for Giannis to lead the break. 20.3% of his offense (230 possessions overall, which ranks 11th in the league) revolves around transition play, he scores 1.25 PPP (12th in the league*), on 69.4% eFG (5th in the league*) and has a 24.8% FT Freq (4th in the league*). This is pretty special and there is no way I pick the potential of Simmons in this regard over what Giannis has already proven in the NBA. WIth 21 years of age, he's already one of the best and most effective transition players among the best basketball players the world.

*among players with at least 100 possessions (108 players)

[tsherkin]

I'm sure you're aware of the familiar trope that rebounding tends to translate to the NBA better than any other skill. You can't just cherry pick two guys and think it destroys hundreds of examples to the contrary, besides the fact that both of those guys are good rebounders from the small-forward position in the NBA. Saying Simmons has a lack of strength and questionable effort just leads me to believe you've never even seen the guy. He's one of the strongest 19-year-olds I've ever seen and is ferocious on the glass. It's never been his effort that's been in question, but rather his unwillingness to shoot.

It will depend on his position. The odds of him being a double-digit rebounder at the 3, for example, are quite a bit lower than if he's a full-time power forward. We know he isn't going to continue grabbing 28% of his team's offensive rebounds per game at the NBA level, and he probably won't be grabbing 33% of their defensive rebounds either, just like we know there's a near-zero chance that his 77% draw rate will translate meaningfully into the league when he arrives.

Durant's rebounding profile at Texas is very similar to Simmons'. 6'10 combo forward dude grabbing 11.1 rpg (11.9 for SImmons), 3.0 offensive, 8.1 defensive (3.1 and 8.8 for Simmons).

Durant's grabbed 7.0 rpg over his career, with three seasons at or above 7.9 (8.0 and 7.9 in 2012 and 2013, 8.2 so far this season). He's been a 2.5% ORB player (translating to 0.8 ORB/g) to date, peaking at 1.3 ORB/g in the second of two seasons he's averaged 1.0+ ORB/g in his career. He's been an 18.0% DRB player, but he's been at 20.1%+ in the last 4+ seasons, and is at 22.0% this year. He has played PF about 15% of the time over his career, and 21%+ from 2012 forward.

Simmons projects in similar fashion. There remains the possibility that he'll look a little different of course, but Beasley is a similar story (only smaller, so the fact that he's a 5.3%/17.7%/11.4% ORB/DRB/TRB guy over his NBA time is perhaps more impressive).

I wouldn't be counting on double-digit rebounding from Simmons. It's possible, I mean he's thicker and more powerful than Durant, so he MIGHT play more at the 4, but he's also going to be handling and out on the perimeter a lot, so if it happens, it'll be more on the basis of his defensive rebounding... and Durant's already quite a good defensive rebounder. To whit, of guys who've played 2,000+ minutes so far this year, he's one of 8 guys to be rocking that level of rebounding ability on the defensive end. Of the guys who have surpassed him, you're looking at Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, KAT, Kevin Love, DAJ, Andre Drummond and Thaddeus Young. Thad Young is having a wild outlier season, particularly since playing the PF position is nothing new to him, and he's previously never been above 17.2% DRB while rocking a career average of 13.6% prior to this season.

Again, it's not something to entirely rule out, but I wouldn't be banking on that rebounding translating. You normally see it reasonably well from stockier dudes who are totally going to play full-time in the frontcourt and not out on the perimeter. Reggie Evans, Danny Fortson, Chuck Hayes, guys like that. And of course your conventional 5s/tall guys who don't spend too much time shooting tons of Js.

Food for thought.

[skones]

He's averaging more rebounds at LSU than Shaq did. He has the fastest time ever recorded from baseline to baseline at the Nike Hoops Summit. That includes all positions. He handles the ball effortlessly with either hand at top speed, and he can dunk through defenders on the break. I'm not saying it's no contest. It clearly is, especially in light of Giannis' last month. I'm just saying I'd take Simmons, and I think he's pretty underrate on most of these threads. Give him two or three months in the league, and then maybe some of us will have a different perspective.

And Kevin Durant averaged over 11 rebounds at Texas and Michael Beasley averaged over 12. It is not a forgone conclusion that Simmons is a dynamite rebounder at the NBA level, particularly given his lack of length and questionable effort at times. The idea that Simmons is a better rebounder because he's pulling down x rebounds at LSU is unfounded.

I'm sure you're aware of the familiar trope that rebounding tends to translate to the NBA better than any other skill. You can't just cherry pick two guys and think it destroys hundreds of examples to the contrary, besides the fact that both of those guys are good rebounders from the small-forward position in the NBA. Saying Simmons has a lack of strength and questionable effort just leads me to believe you've never even seen the guy. He's one of the strongest 19-year-olds I've ever seen and is ferocious on the glass. It's never been his effort that's been in question, but rather his unwillingness to shoot.

Simmons just isn't some otherworldly rebounder. He played the five quite a bit at LSU which places him close to the rim, something which won't be afforded to him at the NBA level. He's going to be playing outside more, and you're saying he's a flat out better rebounder than a guy who's collected 8 plus boards per 40 pace adjusted at the NBA level which places him near the top of his position while playing outside of the paint as well is a bit ridiculous.

Strength was never mentioned, length was. For an NBA player, his length is pretty average. There have been plenty of times this season where Simmons has given questionable effort. I don't see how that can be denied.

[tsherkin]

For an NBA player, his length is pretty average.

He's roughly a +3" wingspan, though that's still a shade over 7 feet. It's not bad, certainly not for someone who projects as a 3/4. It isn't amazing or ATG or anything, but that's a workable wingspan for a dude at those positions. It's still about +2"over positional average for SFs and right around average for a PF (-0.25"). His standing reach is, at last measurement, 9'0.5". Average for SFs is 8'7.8" and 8'10.4", so his actual length/reach is ABOVE average at either forward position, and actually only below average compared to 9'1.2" for CENTERS.

Food for thought.

[skones]

For an NBA player, his length is pretty average.

He's roughly a +3" wingspan, though that's still a shade over 7 feet. It's not bad, certainly not for someone who projects as a 3/4. It isn't amazing or ATG or anything, but that's a workable wingspan for a dude at those positions. It's still about +2"over positional average for SFs and right around average for a PF (-0.25"). His standing reach is, at last measurement, 9'0.5". Average for SFs is 8'7.8" and 8'10.4", so his actual length/reach is ABOVE average at either forward position, and actually only below average compared to 9'1.2" for CENTERS.

Food for thought.

Like I said, average. As you stated yourself at power forward. I was thinking positionally but didn't clarify as such.

[scrabbarista]

I don't think the poll is all that surprising. There isn't anything that Simmons does that is arguably better than Giannis, Giannis has been dominating NBA competition, and has a significant length and athleticism advantage.

He's a better passer, ball-handler, rebounder, and post-up player when adjusted for age. He's arguably a better transition player. So that's five things.

You make that sound as if that's a given when it's really not.

1. Better passer: Well, strictly looking at pure skill, you're probably right as of now. Anyway, passing is only useful as far as it contributes to the overall playmaking-ability. We don't know exactly how Giannis stacks up against the best players yet but we don't know with Simmons either. We have actual data for Giannis as the main playmaker in this league, though, although the sample is quite small. Over the past 11 games - since he got to play PG for his team - his team has a 108.0 on-court ORTG (102.0 off-court ORTG) with him having a 33.9 AST% and a 2.97 AST/TO ratio. Those are great numbers and although we must still be cautious and patient, it's certainly not a given that Simmons is a superior overall playmaker. Sure, he's younger but given Giannis learning-curve and the limited time he got to play PG until the end of february, that's definitely not enough to be the deciding factor.

2. Better ball handler: More fluid, probably, although Giannis has amazingly good handles for a guy of his size. But again, ball handling is only useful insofar as it contributes to something greater (scoring, playmaking, dealing with pressure). Until we have evidence that the superior ball handling - which by the way is very subjective - amounts to something more, I don't really care about it. If Giannis happens to struggle with scoring or playmaking in the future due to insufficient handles, while Simmons proves to be a great scorer and/or playmaker specifically because he's got great handles, we can have this talk again.

3. Better rebounder: In college, he definitely has the more impressive numbers. Given that rebounding usually translates well into the NBA, I'm ready to give him that for now. Anyway, that said, rebounding has a lot to do with team strategy and assigned roles, which makes it impossible to make definite statements in this regard just yet. What we do know is that Giannis is extremely long, is willing to take contact and gained a lot of muscles to be able to play against the bigger players in this league. So he's quite a good rebounder, too, whenever it's his task to go for the rebound.

4. Better post-up player: True, Giannis doesn't operate in the post very much and isn't very effective when he does at the moment. He can punish smaller players and he has some playmaking skills out of the post but overall his game isn't built around post-ups. How effective Simmons can be as a post-up player in the NBA and how much it adds to his overall value remains to be seen. His enormous shooting struggles, however, are going to be a problem even if he's operating in the post and it's also not like Simmons is some sort of post-up savant himself.

5. Arguably better transition player: Wow, I'm glad you added the word 'arguably' here. See, Simmons is a great transition player, it's his biggest strength coming into the NBA, but Giannis is a special transition player as well and he actually already dominates his NBA competition in this aspect of the game. Every time the Bucks have the chance to play fast in transition, they do and they always look for Giannis to lead the break. 20.3% of his offense (230 possessions overall, which ranks 11th in the league) is revolves around transition play, he scores 1.25 PPP (12th in the league*), on 69.4% eFG (5th in the league*) and has a 24.8% FT Freq (4th in the league*). This is pretty special and there is no way I pick the potential of Simmons in this regard over what Giannis has already proven in the NBA. WIth 21 years of age, he's already one of the best and most effective transition players among the best basketball players the world.

*among players with at least 100 possessions (108 players)

1. I agree that passing is only useful insofar as it's actually useful. In fact, passing is the area where I would be most hesitant to call Simmons better at present, due to his high turnover rate. But the precision of his passes is a subtlety that is going to pay much greater dividends with NBA-quality shooters than it has at LSU. Having watched he and Giannis play, I can confidently say that Giannis does not possess this preternatural ability. Not that an example like this is needed, because you can see it on virtually any possession, but Keith Hornsby said that sometimes Simmons' passes to him at the three-point line are so perfect that "it's almost distracting." As someone who was a thee-point shooter with short arms and small hands (and therefore had trouble catching errant passes in rhythm), perhaps I pay closer attention to this ability than most. Whatever the case, Simmons is as good as anyone I've ever seen in this regard. As for Giannis' last 11 games, those numbers are probably better than Magic's career numbers. Jeremy Lin's first ten starts were the best for a point guard in the modern era - better than Magic, Isaiah, or Kidd. But people who know the game better than I do looked at him and said, "he's an average player in this league." That's the value of the eye test over a small sample size statistically.

2. Given that there's no real knock on either of them in terms of results, i.e., neither guy is constantly dribbling the ball off of his foot, I either give the edge to the guy who demonstrates a higher level of control during more complex maneuvers (Simmons), or call it a tie. Sure, we can talk later.

3. Yes, we do know that Giannis is a great rebounder given his typical position(s) on the floor. Simmons is better. I only pointed out these five things as a way of trolling the poster (maybe it was you, I'm not paying attention) who made the patently ridiculous statement that there's "nothing" at which Simmons is even "arguably" better than Giannis. The very fact that were having this conversation proves how wrong he was.

4. Again, I was just saying, in response to that dude's ridiculous statement, that Simmons is better than Giannis in the post, which he clearly is. Like you, I have my doubts about how useful this fact actually is in real NBA games.

5. Yep. I've been watching Giannis play the last three years in the league (admittedly infrequently), and it's pretty freaking obvious he's special in transition. Thanks for the numbers. None of them are surprising. I said "arguably" because I know how special Giannis is in this regard. (This is taking me 20 minutes to type this two-minute response because my comp's overheating, so I'm wrapping this up here.) The thing that makes it arguable at all in Ben's favor is how well he handles the middle of the floor in transition. And yes, I know Giannis can handle the middle of the floor in transition - just as Ben can handle the wings, though probably not as well as Giannis.

Anyway, thanks for the numbers and the points. I'm gonna let my comp cool off. See you around.