What's up with Aaron?

[humanrefutation]

Recently, I've found myself thinking about Aaron Rodgers's performance during the 2015 season.

He had two amazing, all-time throws in the Hail Marys against Detroit and Arizona. He lead the team to OT on the road in the Divisional Round with his top 4 receivers hurt, with Lacy underperforming, with an offensive line that was shaky at best.

But on the other hand, he was more tentative than I've seen since his first year as starter and he was more inaccurate than ever. Of course, when relative to the rest of the NFL, he was still a top tier QB. But, he wasn't Godgers. He wasn't what we've seen during the past several years.

There can be a few reasons for this:
He could have been injured.
His receivers were terrible.
The play calls sucked.
We've seen his best. He's declining.

Or, on the crazy side:
The balls are no longer being over-inflated to his liking, and he's having trouble adjusting.

Of course, there could be nothing wrong and he'll be Godgers next year.

But I'm curious: what do you think?

[El Duderino]

I'm not worried at all about Rodgers. I think it was simply a mix of him having a bad year by his standards and a poor receiving group. Come next year with with better receivers and hopefully a better tight end, i expect a top-5 MVP vote caliber season.

[crkone]

They relied on a WR that probably runs a 4.9 now and had an OL that was mostly injured the second half of the season. Not to mention a RB who could've played center and a TE who couldn't run or block.

[RiotPunch]

If we're seeing unproductive Aaron with a healthy Jordy and a p90x-ified Lacy, then we can start worrying.

[RRyder823]

It is entirely possible Rodgers simply had a rough year for no better reason than he simply was off.

Down years do happen for no good reason

[humanrefutation]

It is entirely possible Rodgers simply had a rough year for no better reason than he simply was off.

Down years do happen for no good reason

I don't believe this. I don't believe that people simply have off years for no reason. This wasn't a series of flukes. This was a pattern throughout the season.

I don't think his performance this past season is necessarily indicative of his abilities as a quarterback going forward, but unless the reasons for his performance - whether it be his targets, his protection, his plays, or whatever else they may be - are identified and rectified, I don't see how next season will be any different.

[RRyder823]

It is entirely possible Rodgers simply had a rough year for no better reason than he simply was off.

Down years do happen for no good reason

I don't believe this. I don't believe that people simply have off years for no reason. This wasn't a series of flukes. This was a pattern throughout the season.

I don't think his performance this past season is necessarily indicative of his abilities as a quarterback going forward, but unless the reasons for his performance - whether it be his targets, his protection, his plays, or whatever else they may be - are identified and rectified, I don't see how next season will be any different.

We simply disagree then. Players have bad plays, bad games and bad months all the time for no good reason. So why not a year?

Rodgers accuracy was off all year and that is arguably the deadliest part of his game so I'll draw an analogy to the NBA. Shooters go through cold streaks all the time that can last for extremely long periods of time and the only real explanation for it is they're in a cold streak. You could make the same argument for a QB like Rodgers who thrives off his pin point accuracy just being a half a step off for whatever reason.

Sometimes it gets compounded due to the fact that once a player starts getting in his own head it normally makes the situation worse, Crosby being a prime example, but it doesn't really mean anything more than the player hit a cold streak and started overthinking everything.

Now I'm not saying this is the case with Rodgers. It's definitely probable that it was a perfect storm of injuries, playcalling, ect and things just started spiraling out of control. Simply trying to add another percpective to the discussion that most people dont like because it adds uncontrollable aspects to a sport that can be very unpredictable as is.

Personally I think it's a lil bit of everything but not a ton of everything but we've all seen Rodgers enter his God Mode cheat before when he's been surrounded by less than stellar players and this year it just looked like he lost that cheat code. That's in no way an indictment that he's started a decline but rather just that there are times and stretches that a player has trouble elevating his play up to an MVP level and there really is just not one thing, or even anything possibly, that you can point your finger at and say "Yep there's the problem"

[Turk Nowitzki]

He missed some throws nobody expects him to miss. I guess there's no way we'll ever know if he was injured but I blame most of the problems on our WR's and TE's just consistently not being open.

[KidA24]

The first 3 weeks of the year, he was Godgers. He absolutely was.
He was at over 8.5 Y/A, and 10.67 adjusted Y/A.

The remaining 13 weeks, he was at 6.34 and 6.47.

Comparing 2014 to 2015, by where the passes were thrown:

2015:
BY PASS PLAY CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT
Pass Thrown Behind LoS 108 127 798 85.0 6.28 30 6 0 0 108.6
Pass Thrown 1-10 yds 140 222 1,172 63.1 5.28 33 11 4 0 85.6
Pass Thrown 11-20 yds 56 125 1,039 44.8 8.31 65 8 3 0 85.4
Pass Thrown 21-30 yds 9 31 273 29.0 8.81 38 3 0 0 96.0
Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 4 15 141 26.7 9.40 40 1 0 0 88.5
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 2 8 107 25.0 13.38 61 1 0 0 118.8

2014:
BY PASS PLAY CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT
Pass Thrown Behind Los 65 80 460 81.3 5.75 67 3 0 0 103.1
Pass Thrown 1-10 yds 179 252 1,745 71.0 6.93 47 15 3 0 105.0
Pass Thrown 11-20 yds 56 118 962 47.5 8.15 46 7 1 0 91.8
Pass Thrown 21-30 yds 15 30 507 50.0 16.90 80 5 1 0 121.5
Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 7 13 375 53.8 28.85 73 4 0 0 138.6
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 2 5 106 40.0 21.20 66 2 0 0 127.1


I mean, just looking at the two seasons, the gigantic difference is in the Completion percentage on everything beyond the line of scrimmage, as well as getting more than a yard and a half more on throws from 1-10 yards in 2014.

[MikeIsGood]

They relied on a WR that probably runs a 4.9 now and had an OL that was mostly injured the second half of the season. Not to mention a RB who could've played center and a TE who couldn't run or block.

A succinct summation of the season.

Alliteration FTW.

I think he did have some issues, like the missed passes we aren't accustomed to seeing, but my best bet is that the blame falls onto the issues we had. It had to hurt mentally. We started losing games, the offense was playing like ****, and it took its toll.

I won't be worried unless it happens again this season with the offense improved.

[HKPackFan]

I do think it was a combination of things with the poor play calling, slow receivers and awful Oline.

I think taking so many sacks has a physical and mental toll (didn't we have the 2nd most sacks in the league?).

It is easy to look at play the next day and say, Oh man that guy was wide open why didn't he see him, but try seeing that guy open after you've gotten your body smashed into the turf a bunch of times. I think at times Rodgers saw ghosts and was overthinking things and missed guys who were open. I also think his mental clock on getting rid of the ball was rushed from taking a beating and he rushed some throws which then were off. And just the physical toll and getting knocked on your ass a bunch of times during the game and then not being able to pull off the perfect throw the next play.

[Ron Swanson]

Rodgers has spoiled us all. I think you guys just have to stop expecting GOAT type production year in and year out. Like others have said, if he's still "off" midway through next season, then I'll start worrying.

[DanoMac]

Also, the O-Line was atrocious most of the season. Rodgers, after collarbone injuries and whatnot, I'm sure was a little worried everytime he was in the pocket.

[th87]

I had picked him in fantasy. That is all.

[trwi7]

I think once teams realized they could start pressing our receivers and they couldn't get separation, then every team we played started doing it.

Through the first 6 games of the season he had a 115.9 QB rating, basically Godgers. Then the Broncos game happened and they just played press on our receivers and completely shut down the passing game. Then the Panthers did the same thing until the 4th quarter when they were basically playing prevent (16-33 for 208 yards through the first 3 quarters, 9-15 for 161 yards during the comeback then Carolina shut us down at the goal line going for the tie.)

I think teams just realized that our receivers didn't have the speed to beat them and if they did beat them in the press, they weren't fast enough to get the separation where Rodgers would feel comfortable passing to them or that he would but the corners were confident they would be able to make up the ground needed to break up the pass.

Add that to Lacy doing nothing and then later in the year Starks' fumbling problem basically making the running game useless.

[MickeyDavis]

I think once teams realized they could start pressing our receivers and they couldn't get separation, then every team we played started doing it.

This.

[humanrefutation]

The receivers, OL, and Lacy I get. But he seemed to have more bad throws than I ever remember from him, throws that were independent of anything going on around him. Is that physical, mental, or both?

[trwi7]

The receivers, OL, and Lacy I get. But he seemed to have more bad throws than I ever remember from him, throws that were independent of anything going on around him. Is that physical, mental, or both?

The only thing I can think of is that since the receivers had so much trouble getting open that he would be extra cautious and throw it away even if the receiver was open enough for him to complete the pass.

[Aaron It Out]

New, bad playcaller, awful receivers, awful oline.

[MickeyDavis]

With his recent tweets there is little doubt Rodgers is on blue meth