Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[payitforward]

Oh, I think it's 100% that Wittman is gone. But it's hard for me to imagine him firing Ernie. In fact, he might think that such a big change would *discourage* Durant -- if he still entertains the fantasy that KD will come save him, which I'd bet he does.

[ptptpt]

I think the chances are good that Ernie and Wittman are gone next season. Not making the playoffs is a significant blow to Ted's plans. And the declining numbers watching the Wizards will most likely wake him up like a sucker punch in the face from a 75 year old Trump patriot as security drags him out of the arena. Ted's stubborn, but when it comes to money - he ain't stupid. Besides, if he's still holding onto the Durant hopes, he knows there are options out there that Durant would find more appealing at head coach - like Kevin Ollie.

Randy is effectively out at this point. But like I said before, Ernie has two built in excuses with injuries and poor coaching. It would be much harder for me to be convinced that Ted sees Ernie as a problem as well as much as he does with Randy. This offseason and next year's regular season would have to also be a complete failure along with Wall being discouraged with front office moves before Ted decides that it is time to move on. Wall has hinted at some displeasure with carrying the majority of the team load but I think Wall has to be completely disgruntled before Ted decides that it is time to let Ernie go.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I dunno Nate....

I guess my thing with Ted is that I wonder if he cares nearly as much about this team as he does about the Caps. He has the GM and the head coach on limited contracts. Would this team for Ernie be considered a disaster or just bad luck? We all know Randy will probably be gone because of his failure to adapt to a new way of playing. But for Ernie, considering how much injuries have plagued the team and his activity in finding players that fit, do you really think that Ted will look at Ernie's body of work and honestly give him the boot? He did bring in young developing talent and he did prepare the team for a nice offseason. I know the results are horrid, but since he kept Ernie on when the team was in complete shambles, do you think he lets Ernie go this year based off of how he has followed the plan? I don't think so.

Yep, this is very much how I read the situation.

I agree that there's no way Ted fires Ernie. But does anyone really think his "bring in young developing talent" record is good?

As for the "nice offseason" to come -- more likely there's a *big* failure waiting to happen, as salary inflation ups player cost, and all of a sudden our cap space doesn't buy us much at all. Especially once Durant and any other true superstar are gone. Keep in mind that Ernie actually thought Markieff Morris was a good player, worth a lottery pick, etc. He won't pick the right FAs to develop this team, no way.

But, yes, he has "followed the plan." He's GM in perpetuum.

I was agreeing with the sentiment that Grunfeld won't be fired. Agree with your points that Grunfeld has done a poor job of identifying and acquiring young talent (developing or otherwise), and that the oncoming offseason seems more like a disaster waiting to happen.

[Kanyewest]

I think the chances are good that Ernie and Wittman are gone next season. Not making the playoffs is a significant blow to Ted's plans. And the declining numbers watching the Wizards will most likely wake him up like a sucker punch in the face from a 75 year old Trump patriot as security drags him out of the arena. Ted's stubborn, but when it comes to money - he ain't stupid. Besides, if he's still holding onto the Durant hopes, he knows there are options out there that Durant would find more appealing at head coach - like Kevin Ollie.

I would like that move. Although there is a possibility that Wittman and Grundfeld's fates are tied together.

[Ruzious]

I think the chances are good that Ernie and Wittman are gone next season. Not making the playoffs is a significant blow to Ted's plans. And the declining numbers watching the Wizards will most likely wake him up like a sucker punch in the face from a 75 year old Trump patriot as security drags him out of the arena. Ted's stubborn, but when it comes to money - he ain't stupid. Besides, if he's still holding onto the Durant hopes, he knows there are options out there that Durant would find more appealing at head coach - like Kevin Ollie.

I would like that move. Although there is a possibility that Wittman and Grundfeld's fates are tied together.

I think that's likely - much like how he handled the Caps.

[gambitx777]

here is what I think needs to happen, Keep EG on as team president or president of something or other at monumental but hire a new head of BB operations or player operations or GM or something, any one to pull the strings other than EG, Bring in Kenny Smith, he was up for a few GM jobs a couple years ago and I think he would be great!

[queridiculo]

Au contraire, Ernie and his yes men need to go and be as far away from any sort of decision making power as possible. 13 years of institutionalized incompetence, this needs to be a radical new start.

No holdovers, no promotions, bring in a new guy and let him rebuild this organization from the bottom up.

[payitforward]

If you were to replace Ernie as GM, no way would you keep him on in some other capacity. You wouldn't be doing him a favor, and you sure wouldn't be doing the new guy a favor either.

But... Ted isn't going to hire someone to "rebuild this organization from the bottom up." No way.

Ted is one of those guys who thinks he has "a strategy," and the job of his GM is to execute his "strategy." It's his view that his strategy is sound, and the problem is how subject to "chance" the NBA is -- by which he means injuries above all, but also getting "hot" at "the right time" and other dodo-head fantasies.

Ernie's job is not in danger. If he were to decide to retire or something, he'd be replaced by the blandest possible choice. No one will be given real control, because that would require Ted to accept that he has failed. Not happening -- not until revenue drops meaningfully and for a while.

[Ruzious]

He can blame EG for the Morris trade. Maybe Ted signed off on it after it was negotiated, but I'd assume the details were negotiated by EG - and the details stink. So far, the team's record has not been affected by the Morris trade, and for all we know, Morris could be in jail next season.

[dckingsfan]

I think the chances are good that Ernie and Wittman are gone next season. Not making the playoffs is a significant blow to Ted's plans. And the declining numbers watching the Wizards will most likely wake him up like a sucker punch in the face from a 75 year old Trump patriot as security drags him out of the arena. Ted's stubborn, but when it comes to money - he ain't stupid. Besides, if he's still holding onto the Durant hopes, he knows there are options out there that Durant would find more appealing at head coach - like Kevin Ollie.

I would like that move. Although there is a possibility that Wittman and Grundfeld's fates are tied together.

One can only hope...

[Dark Faze]

you'd think some proactive last grasp of a move to get KD might be done by ted--sitting on your haunches when its clear we're not making the playoffs and keeping Ernie and witt in the fold is likely to look god awful to KD

better to leave Witt for now and move Ernie so a new coach search can already start, as well as preparation for the draft. bringing in some sexy hires could do a decent amount to heal the damage of this season

[TheSecretWeapon]

Many were scratching their heads on the Markieff Morris trade and were hot Grunfeld didn't trade for David Lee. Yet Morris looks active, motivated and is contributing not even 2 days after being traded without practice with the team. David Lee was CUT by the Celtics today. Pretty smart for Grunfeld not to deal for Lee.

*No one* suggested we trade for David Lee -- literally no one. Do you even read the threads before barfing into them?

What was discussed was that the Celtics were about to waive Lee, and should we then pick him up cheap for the rest of the season, which Dallas has done. Those fools who run Dallas! Didn't they realize they could have traded for Markieff Morris instead of their stupid move picking up Lee? What a badly-managed franchise! They sure aren't on the ball. Not like the perennially successful Wizards under Ernie's unparalleled leadership.

Note, btw, that I said "no no -- don't pick up a waived David Lee." But I didn't mean that instead we should trade for Markieff Morris, who has been active, sure, if by that you mean 5 fouls in 16 minutes and 2-6 shooting and no trips to the line.

What kind of chance would you give Lee being more productive per minute in Dallas the rest of the way than Morris is for the Wizards the rest of the season? I'd put it at 40%.

Through my last stat update (not including last night's game), Lee in Dallas has outproduced Morris in Washington. Not even a little bit close. Per 100 team possessions:

Code: Select all

PER100  DL      MM
GMS     10      14
MPG     19.5    26.0
Usg     21.8%   17.9%
ortg    126     95
efg     .639    .449
2pt%    .639    .475
3pt%            .231
ft%     .750    .852
3FA     0.0     3.5
FTA     5.2     3.6
TSA     21.1    18.7
reb     21.1    10.9
ast     3.4     2.8
stl     1.6     1.9
blk     2.9     1.2
tov     3.4     2.8
pf      8.6     5.8
pts     27.9    18.5
zip     9.2     10.6
PPA     172     58


Lee has been playing way over his head, and Morris has been playing below his career norms, so these numbers will moderate over the last month of the season. I estimate that Lee has contributed 1.0 wins so far in Dallas; Morris has contributed 0.5 in Washington.

[closg00]

I have been following Lee with the Mavs, I am still picking Crow feather out of my teeth.

[nate33]

I swear, Ric Carlisle can make any marginal NBA player into a highly productive one. The guy is a genius. He could probably make Jordan Crawford a star.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I swear, Ric Carlisle can make any marginal NBA player into a highly productive one. The guy is a genius. He could probably make Jordan Crawford a star.

One of my favorite "press pass" moments was the opportunity to talk to Carlisle when he was still coaching the Pistons. I talked with him for 20 minutes pre-game, and he invited me to stop by after the game to chat some more. Listening to him break down players around the league and how he would deploy them was illuminating. Really smart guy.

Other favorite/memorable moments:
- Meeting Elgin Baylor. Had this moment where I was suddenly realizing: I'm talking to Elgin F. Baylor.
- Eating dinner with Jerry Krause.
- Sitting with David Alridge as he made calls to chase down details on Maurice Taylor's substance abuse suspension.
- Getting yelled at by Hubie Brown

Good times.

[AFM]

Kevin "Humble Brag" Broom

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Au contraire, Ernie and his yes men need to go and be as far away from any sort of decision making power as possible. 13 years of institutionalized incompetence, this needs to be a radical new start.

No holdovers, no promotions, bring in a new guy and let him rebuild this organization from the bottom up.

Troy Weaver. No brainer.

Danny Ferry would be another good choice to replace EG.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I swear, Ric Carlisle can make any marginal NBA player into a highly productive one. The guy is a genius. He could probably make Jordan Crawford a star.

One of my favorite "press pass" moments was the opportunity to talk to Carlisle when he was still coaching the Pistons. I talked with him for 20 minutes pre-game, and he invited me to stop by after the game to chat some more. Listening to him break down players around the league and how he would deploy them was illuminating. Really smart guy.

Other favorite/memorable moments:
- Meeting Elgin Baylor. Had this moment where I was suddenly realizing: I'm talking to Elgin F. Baylor.
- Eating dinner with Jerry Krause.
- Sitting with David Alridge as he made calls to chase down details on Maurice Taylor's substance abuse suspension.
- Getting yelled at by Hubie Brown

Good times.

This is for fishercob: I spoke with Rick Carlisle ... at Pete Newell's Big Man Camp.

Had a few nice talks with Antawn Jamison. Very nice, humble young man (circa 2001-2002).

Got Nene's autograph when I don't think he spoke English well. Magnetic presence, life in his eyes. I thought "star" when I met him.

Nice talks with Clifford Ray and especially, Marques Johnson. Both real laid back. Recalling Golden State beating the Bullets was great. Also, I remember Marques at both Milwaukee and UCLA. I was elated to speak with both guys I consider legendary.

Got to speak with Merv Lopes about Chaminade over Ralph Sampson and Virginia.

I got scared s--tless of Lefty Driesell after I screamed "fire Lefty" from the UMCP student section. Pissed off Lefty was a big, scary-looking dude! He stomped his feet and looked like he wanted to run up the stands at me to fight. (I didn't want none of that at that time in my life!)

But my all time memory will always be the time Len Bias spoke to me. Every day on campus our paths crossed in route to classes. I was too in awe to speak. I saw his game in the NCAAs vs Olajuwon and Phi Slamma Jamma and recognized Bias was GREAT. But when he spoke and just a down-to-earth guy...wow.

Last, l was present and technically a groomsman in Albert King's wedding to my best friends' at the time's sister. We went to HS together.

Thanks, Kevin. I know you played against Grant Hill and IIRC Walt Williams. I can't touch that.

(But I did once dance on stage with MC Hammer--my first wife worked for a record label back in the day).

[TheSecretWeapon]

*No one* suggested we trade for David Lee -- literally no one. Do you even read the threads before barfing into them?

What was discussed was that the Celtics were about to waive Lee, and should we then pick him up cheap for the rest of the season, which Dallas has done. Those fools who run Dallas! Didn't they realize they could have traded for Markieff Morris instead of their stupid move picking up Lee? What a badly-managed franchise! They sure aren't on the ball. Not like the perennially successful Wizards under Ernie's unparalleled leadership.

Note, btw, that I said "no no -- don't pick up a waived David Lee." But I didn't mean that instead we should trade for Markieff Morris, who has been active, sure, if by that you mean 5 fouls in 16 minutes and 2-6 shooting and no trips to the line.

What kind of chance would you give Lee being more productive per minute in Dallas the rest of the way than Morris is for the Wizards the rest of the season? I'd put it at 40%.

Through my last stat update (not including last night's game), Lee in Dallas has outproduced Morris in Washington. Not even a little bit close. Per 100 team possessions:

Code: Select all

PER100  DL      MM
GMS     10      14
MPG     19.5    26.0
Usg     21.8%   17.9%
ortg    126     95
efg     .639    .449
2pt%    .639    .475
3pt%            .231
ft%     .750    .852
3FA     0.0     3.5
FTA     5.2     3.6
TSA     21.1    18.7
reb     21.1    10.9
ast     3.4     2.8
stl     1.6     1.9
blk     2.9     1.2
tov     3.4     2.8
pf      8.6     5.8
pts     27.9    18.5
zip     9.2     10.6
PPA     172     58


Lee has been playing way over his head, and Morris has been playing below his career norms, so these numbers will moderate over the last month of the season. I estimate that Lee has contributed 1.0 wins so far in Dallas; Morris has contributed 0.5 in Washington.

Update: David Lee STILL way more productive than Morris. In fact, Lee's play has actually improved a little bit; his PPA is 184 through last night's game. Morris: 86. In 193 fewer minutes since changing teams, Lee has greater total production as well. Morris has closed the gap: I have Lee at adding 1.3 wins so far for Dallas; Morris is up to 1.0 wins in Washington.

[dandridge 10]

It's up to John Wall. He's the only man on the planet who can end this living nightmare.

John, if you are reading, please demand to Ted that EG be replaced. And if he isn't, vow to leave the team in 2018.

I don't think they care whether Wall leaves the team in 2018. Ernie thinks players are a dime a dozen. We'll have real high picks in 2017 and 2018, and we can rebuild again. There'll be a new "face of the franchise," etc.

No, there's only one thing can change this: fans have to stop going to the games, stop buying season tickets, stop supporting the team.

Well, I did my part on Friday. After 20 years of being a season ticket holder in the center section, lower bowl, I did not renew for next season. It was a tough decision, but made easier by Ted raising the prices on me again despite a losing season and despite raising my tickets substantially last year. Even if he makes wholesale changes this offseason, its too late. For once, he will have to earn me back as a season ticket holder. I am done running on blind faith that he will do the right thing for this franchise. As I told my ticket agent, the Wizards have convinced me to renew every season based on hope, not based on accomplishments. I not buying on hope any more.