Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Masterfully]

You can have 4 big ticket items. Portland CAN sign Whiteside and Parsons for $20 million each and resign CJ. It will just hinder their ability to keep guys like Plumlee, Crabbe, Harkless, Henderson, etc.

A roster like that goes nowhere unless you can acquire guys willing to take the veteran's minimum that can still play.

Portland isn't going to be one of those teams. Would recommend you look for three guys to pay big money and then spend the fourth guy's money on spots 4 through 7 on the roster.

A roster like that will attract the vet minimum types.

Also, opting to not sign Parsons doesn't mean that Plumlee, Crabbe, Harkless and Henderson will agree to split that $20 million between them to stay. It could come down to $20 million on Parsons OR $15 million on Crabbe.

Of course, having to choose would be a luxury Portland is unlikely to have.

[Agenda42]

A roster like that will attract the vet minimum types.

Also, opting to not sign Parsons doesn't mean that Plumlee, Crabbe, Harkless and Henderson will agree to split that $20 million between them to stay. It could come down to $20 million on Parsons OR $15 million on Crabbe.

Of course, having to choose would be a luxury Portland is unlikely to have.

I don't really think it will. Hasn't happened in the past when Portland has had a 50 win team, at any rate.

Veteran's minimum guys will have better opportunities in places like Golden State.

[Wizenheimer]

the point is that PER alone even with player age as a sidekick seems a questionable gauge of player value. I mean, Kemba Walker is only 25 and his PER is 21.7 compared to CJ's 17.6. Is he a lot more valuable? or Kenneth Faried with a PER of 21.4?

Walker and Faried are both a cut above McCollum. We could have had Faried, too. I remember everyone and his dog clamoring for that pick to be made. QQ.

If the Blazers had Faried and Lillard, they would be in a much more flexible position entering this free agency period. You can sign almost anybody with those two. With McCollum and Lillard, half the interesting players are a bad fit for you.

I don't really disagree with anything you wrote there, although I'd probably rate CJ a little higher then Faried. On the other hand, Faried is signed for 3 more years at a little under 13 million/year. That's extremely appealing when considering what we both suspect CJ will get.

I especially agree with the notion that locking in a Lillard/CJ starting back court to long term contracts really narrows the directions you can go with a roster. And that's not just financial directions, either. Portland desperately needs another good ball-handler/play-maker. Their current 'PF/stretch-4' rotation of Vonleh-Meyers-Aminu-Harkless is funky, awkward, and filled with flaws. The Plumlee/Davis rotation at C might be adequate, but only if there are major upgrades at SF and PF. They need to add consistent enough scoring that would make it easier to reduce the reliance on the heavy iso-ball of Lillard/CJ. Lots of work to do and future flexibility is very likely to get hammered big time in four months

I get what you're driving at though. Some big who is an interior threat on offense as well as a solid defender would help a lot. Thus, my Al Horford pipe dream. Somebody that would force Portland's opponents to cover the whole floor including the paint. Right now, defending the paint against the Blazers is probably low on any opponents scouting report

Absolutely love this idea.

it is a lovable idea and I don't get many but it's almost certainly tilting at a concrete windmill. He's a perfect fit on a lot of rosters and will have his choice of many teams. His ability to play either big position would work well on the Blazers. A Horford-Plumlee-Davis rotation would be pretty dynamic IMO, and not many redundant skills either. Not a lock-down rim protection trio, but I think that's a bit overrated and Horford, overall, is an excellent defender

[Agenda42]

I don't really disagree with anything you wrote there, although I'd probably rate CJ a little higher then Faried. On the other hand, Faried is signed for 3 more years at a little under 13 million/year. That's extremely appealing when considering what we both suspect CJ will get.

Right. To be clear, better asset for Portland, not necessarily better basketball player.

Lots of work to do and future flexibility is very likely to get hammered big time in four months

It's hard to have as much flexibility as Portland has today, so yes, flexiblity will likely take a nosedive. If Olshey is true to his usual style, he's going to find a way to have risky players on cheap contracts fill out much of the roster. Would be surprised to see more than one signing that rates higher than "hmm, interesting".

it is a lovable idea and I don't get many but it's almost certainly tilting at a concrete windmill. He's a perfect fit on a lot of rosters and will have his choice of many teams. His ability to play either big position would work well on the Blazers. A Horford-Plumlee-Davis rotation would be pretty dynamic IMO, and not many redundant skills either. Not a lock-down rim protection trio, but I think that's a bit overrated and Horford, overall, is an excellent defender

Agree, super not happening. I'm a huge Horford fan though, and he would be a perfect fit for Portland.

[Norm2953]

What would be the rate for the veteran's minimum in 2016? I would think with the rise in the
salary cap, rather than focus on the free agents those guys already under decent contracts
would be the most sought after players. Lot's of guys making 6-8 Million and hopefully
NO will be able to get some of those guys.

[Wizenheimer]

What would be the rate for the veteran's minimum in 2016? I would think with the rise in the
salary cap, rather than focus on the free agents those guys already under decent contracts
would be the most sought after players. Lot's of guys making 6-8 Million and hopefully
NO will be able to get some of those guys.

there's a range for vet minimum deals based upon years of experience. Next year, that spread is from $874,636 to $1,551,659. With all the league-wide cap-space, I doubt there will be but a few of those deals signed. On 2nd thought, I'd bet the Blazers could get Steve Blake for the minimum...

as far as the players with multi-year deals in the 6-8 million range, there may not be as many as you assume. Here's a list from BBREF:

Alec Burks $9,904,495 $10,595,506 $11,286,515
Iman Shumpert $9,700,000 $10,300,000 $11,000,000
Corey Brewer $7,600,000 $7,600,000
Trevor Ariza $7,806,971 $7,420,912
Markieff Morris $8,000,000 $8,000,000 $8,000,000
Avery Bradley $8,269,663 $8,808,989
Kosta Koufos $8,000,000 $8,500,000
Al-Farouq Aminu $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $7,500,000
Cory Joseph $7,330,000 $7,660,000
Boris Diaw $6,500,000 $7,000,000
Ed Davis $7,000,000 $7,000,000
Lou Williams $7,000,000 $7,000,000
Isaiah Thomas $6,587,132 $6,261,395
Patrick Beverley $6,000,000 $5,500,000 $5,000,000
Marco Belinelli $6,333,333 $6,333,333
Jae Crowder $6,500,000 $7,000,000 $7,500,000 $8,000,000
Kyle Singler $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000
Marcus Morris $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000
Alexis Ajinca $4,600,000 $4,900,000 $5,300,000
J.J. Barea $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000
Jeremy Lamb $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000

it's not a very appealing list, and few of those players play a position of need as far as Portland would be concerned. The players that are interesting would come with a high price tag, and unfortunately, Portland's collection of desirable trade assets is small and pretty weak. In fact two of their best trade assets are on that list

Blazers would have to make their own and they probably have a pretty good candidate already in Henderson. If they could get Crabbe for 6-8 million that would be good, but that ain't happening.

I'd like Stotts to give a little more burn to Brian Roberts. I think he'd be an excellent backup PG to have in reserve. He's better as a PG then CJ, but the rotations have kept Roberts on the bench. If he thought he could get consistent playing time as a Blazer, maybe there would be a chance of getting him on a bargain deal. But he's probably seen enough to know that his Portland playing time would be sporadic, at best

[zzaj]

I wonder if the Blazers have enough assets to figure out a way to let Crabbe walk and draft Valentine? He's projected around 19th right now and is probably already a better fit in Stotts' system, not to mention he'd be loads cheaper.

Of course if the Blazers weren't playing so bloody well they could just draft him with their own pick...

[Wizenheimer]

I wonder if the Blazers have enough assets to figure out a way to let Crabbe walk and draft Valentine? He's projected around 19th right now and is probably already a better fit in Stotts' system, not to mention he'd be loads cheaper.

Of course if the Blazers weren't playing so bloody well they could just draft him with their own pick...

yeah, I mentioned in the other thread I just can't see Portland having assets attractive enough to land a 15-18th pick in the draft, let alone a late lottery pick

not unless they make CJ available and we know Olshey won't do that. And again, Olshey really cleared the way for CJ to get major minutes. I'd seriously doubt he'd draft a SG like Valentine that might challenge for the starting SG role pretty soon

[Soulyss]

I wonder if the Blazers have enough assets to figure out a way to let Crabbe walk and draft Valentine? He's projected around 19th right now and is probably already a better fit in Stotts' system, not to mention he'd be loads cheaper.

Of course if the Blazers weren't playing so bloody well they could just draft him with their own pick...

yeah, I mentioned in the other thread I just can't see Portland having assets attractive enough to land a 15-18th pick in the draft, let alone a late lottery pick

not unless they make CJ available and we know Olshey won't do that. And again, Olshey really cleared the way for CJ to get major minutes. I'd seriously doubt he'd draft a SG like Valentine that might challenge for the starting SG role pretty soon

Unless he traded CJ for an All-Star caliber big...

[Downtown]

Lately I've been thinking about what Aminu could get Portland in a trade. He's been so up and down lately and I wonder if he is suited to the role of full-time small forward or he is the classic tweener.

I was kicking around the idea of trading Aminu to Toronto in some sort of package with Terrence Ross coming back Portland's way. With Demarre Carroll Ross becomes an $11mil backup when his extension kicks in next season. I realize Toronto can't trade Ross until they know the free agent outcome of Derozen but the Raptors have struggled a bit at power forward this season with no one able to lay claim to being the defensive player that coach Dwayne Casey covets. Neither Patrick Patterson or Luis Scola have stepped up to fill Amir Johnson's shoes.

To be honest Ross has had his ups and downs this season but when he's on he's a very valuable player that can defend and hit the three ball and I could see him fitting in with Terry Stotts style well. I just don't know what other pieces would be needed to make it work for both teams.

Just a random thought.

[Agenda42]

Lately I've been thinking about what Aminu could get Portland in a trade. He's been so up and down lately and I wonder if he is suited to the role of full-time small forward or he is the classic tweener.

The market for Aminu was extremely soft last free agency and he has done nothing since then to change opinions.

[Soulyss]

Lately I've been thinking about what Aminu could get Portland in a trade. He's been so up and down lately and I wonder if he is suited to the role of full-time small forward or he is the classic tweener.

The market for Aminu was extremely soft last free agency and he has done nothing since then to change opinions.

I think the problem is Aminu is probably best suited for 20 minutes off the bench, not as a starter. I think given the new NBA economy he's fairly paid, just not starter talent.

[Village Idiot]

I wonder if the Blazers have enough assets to figure out a way to let Crabbe walk and draft Valentine? He's projected around 19th right now and is probably already a better fit in Stotts' system, not to mention he'd be loads cheaper.

Of course if the Blazers weren't playing so bloody well they could just draft him with their own pick...

Valentine is talented but he isn't athletic enough to be anything but a limited minutes role player in the NBA. If we got a pick in that range I'd much rather take a chance on that athletic French wing Luwawu. He has big time upside with decent skills, big hands and a long wingspan.

[Village Idiot]

Poll question:
Who would you rather throw 4 years/$20 million per at?
[] Harrison Barnes
[] Chandler Parsons
[] Nic Batum
[] wut? i luv Aminu!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=barneha02&y2=2016&p2=parsoch01&y3=2016&p3=batumni01&y4=2016&p4=aminual01&p5=&p6=

For me its Batum but to play primarily at PF. Looking back at when he started at PF for us when Aldridge was out in 2013-14. In the stretch from March 1 to 25 (Aldridge played in some of the games BTW) Batum had some monster rebounding games: 16,15,18,5,12,8,14,18,14,9,14,6,10,9 leading me to believe he could be the ideal smallball PF in a similar veign to Draymond Green. With his passing and 3pt shooting ability he'd be a much better player for us than he was in the Aldridgecentric Blazers teams.

[zzaj]

I wonder if the Blazers have enough assets to figure out a way to let Crabbe walk and draft Valentine? He's projected around 19th right now and is probably already a better fit in Stotts' system, not to mention he'd be loads cheaper.

Of course if the Blazers weren't playing so bloody well they could just draft him with their own pick...

Valentine is talented but he isn't athletic enough to be anything but a limited minutes role player in the NBA. If we got a pick in that range I'd much rather take a chance on that athletic French wing Luwawu. He has big time upside with decent skills, big hands and a long wingspan.

Respectfully disagree. I think Valentine is going to eventually be a good "glue guy" type starter in the NBA, a la Nic Batum. In the short term he's a very good 3pt shooting/playmaking sixth man off the bench. I agree that Luwawu has upside, but he is RAW as all get-out, currently. It'll most likely be a few years before you get something like Will Barton out of him. I don't think that fits with Lillard's window. If the Blazers are heading into Win Now mode (I think based on this season we can all agree that Olshey has no plans of moving backward into "Development" mode as a franchise) they need players who can contribute right away, not project players who will need a few years.

Again, I think that if the Blazers could figure a way to allow Crabbe to walk and obtain the rights to Valentine, it would be a move forward in the short-term and the long-term both financially and from a talent perspective.

[zzaj]

Parsons is the choice for me, but his recent injuries would have me a little cautious.

Barnes is like Webster, IMO. He will benefit slightly from an increased role, but not by much. He's probably a 12/5 to 13/6 guy for his career and not worth 20mil/per IMO.

Batum would probably help this team win, but personally? I'm tired of his inconsistent play and annual injury. This year is probably a good indication of what we could expect as a #2 option, barring injuries...15/6/6

I actually really like Aminu as long as he's not dribbling the ball. I think that with some coaching to help identify his role he can become a very good 3 and D guy at the SF/PF. If he can become more consistent with his 3pt shot I see no reason why he can't be a starting SF for the Blazers. At this stage he presents well against PFs because he has some advantages in those matchups...if his game continues to evolve I think that would even out into the SF position. Plus his price tag is nice.

[red_power]

I wonder if the Blazers have enough assets to figure out a way to let Crabbe walk and draft Valentine? He's projected around 19th right now and is probably already a better fit in Stotts' system, not to mention he'd be loads cheaper.

Of course if the Blazers weren't playing so bloody well they could just draft him with their own pick...

Valentine is talented but he isn't athletic enough to be anything but a limited minutes role player in the NBA. If we got a pick in that range I'd much rather take a chance on that athletic French wing Luwawu. He has big time upside with decent skills, big hands and a long wingspan.

Wes Matthews weren't much athletical then he comes out of college. As well as CJ.

Not a great point for me.

[Soulyss]

Poll question:
Who would you rather throw 4 years/$20 million per at?
[] Harrison Barnes
[] Chandler Parsons
[] Nic Batum
[] wut? i luv Aminu!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=barneha02&y2=2016&p2=parsoch01&y3=2016&p3=batumni01&y4=2016&p4=aminual01&p5=&p6=

For me its Batum but to play primarily at PF. Looking back at when he started at PF for us when Aldridge was out in 2013-14. In the stretch from March 1 to 25 (Aldridge played in some of the games BTW) Batum had some monster rebounding games: 16,15,18,5,12,8,14,18,14,9,14,6,10,9 leading me to believe he could be the ideal smallball PF in a similar veign to Draymond Green. With his passing and 3pt shooting ability he'd be a much better player for us than he was in the Aldridgecentric Blazers teams.

I really like Batum, but he's far to light to play the "Draymond Green" role, and frankly his defense has always been overrated.

[Dame Lizard]

Agree r.e. Batum's overrated defense Soulyss.

Bismack had 16 points, 25 rebounds (9 offensive) and 2 blocks tonight. He would be so great on our team.

I think I'd rather him than Plumlee, but I do admit that Plumlee has grown on me quite a lot. He is playing better defense than he was earlier this season imo.

[acidfrehley]

I said it once and I said it again, I'd love to have Batum back. It would be a great starting 5 with him at either SF or PF.

I already changed my mind several times about what I expect from our offseason. But atm I'm going with:

- Keeping CJ no matter what
- Resigning Crabbe and Henderson
- Sign Batum
- Make some sort of deal with Phillly to get either Okafor or Noel to play PF (not giving up CJ)

My ideal lineup would be something like:

Dame / vet pg
CJ / Henderson
Batum / Aminu
Noel / Vonleh
Plum / ?