Official Draft Thread 2015-16

[No-Man]

This is my last Mock pre-March Madness, the order of selection is the one that fivethirtyeight has as their latest prediction of the Regular Season final standings according to the data and record the teams have produced until today, and their projections for the rest of the games.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/draft_simulator/view/163628/

I have paid a bit more attention to both team needs and predictions of how a GM is likely going to operate, plus my rankings, so it is not only based on my opinion off every prospect.
Feedback is always welcome'd.

[DavorFanCroatia]

This is my last Mock pre-March Madness, the order of selection is the one that fivethirtyeight has as their latest prediction of the Regular Season final standings according to the data and record the teams have produced until today, and their projections for the rest of the games.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/draft_simulator/view/163628/

I have paid a bit more attention to both team needs and predictions of how a GM is likely going to operate, plus my rankings, so it is not only based on my opinion off every prospect.
Feedback is always welcome'd.

Man, you have 3 Croatian players on Celtics draft list. If they do this, 80% of croatians would be Celtics fans

[No-Man]

This is my last Mock pre-March Madness, the order of selection is the one that fivethirtyeight has as their latest prediction of the Regular Season final standings according to the data and record the teams have produced until today, and their projections for the rest of the games.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/draft_simulator/view/163628/

I have paid a bit more attention to both team needs and predictions of how a GM is likely going to operate, plus my rankings, so it is not only based on my opinion off every prospect.
Feedback is always welcome'd.

Man, you have 3 Croatian players on Celtics draft list. If they do this, 80% of croatians would be Celtics fans

I know, I almost gave them Arapovic too nah, it is just best player available plus the fact the Celtics have a ton of picks and should look for draft&stash candidates, pure coincidence.

I think Zubac could go earlier, but in this Mock I couldnt really find a place for him, I think Boston or Chicago at the end of the lotto could have been options, but after that it gets murky.

There are a ton of bigs available and not so many teams that need bigs, some guys are bound to fall hard.

[DavorFanCroatia]

Yeah i know. Euro players were Ainge's and Celtics weak links. I hope we go full Euro this draft...especially with Celtics pick and 2nd round pick. I miss my countryman on my favorite team. Radja was great...after him Tabak and Sundov nothing to write home about...
Have a nice day

[Murta]

Nice follow-up for my yesterday's post:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Sportando/status/710467357601308672[/tweet]

Sportando @Sportando
Despite the reports, Dragan Bender HAS an NBA out in the contract this summer, his agency ProTalent told Sportando.

[MrTwister]

Great Murta, that means you probably have even better insight than a lot of scouts. What is you oppinion, what you see, how good he can be, any comparison you can give...is he really 3rd best prospect? Thanks in advance

There are two clear elite skills Bender possess and that have to translate at NBA level: shot-blocking instincts and passing.

According to people who watched him back in the days, he played point-forward for his youth team until he would be 15 or 16 and the only reason they switched him inside is they realized he would grown to this height. Playing off the ball at Maccabi due to the age doesn't create him opportunities to pass, but when he had played on the ball, there were some great passes he tried but his teammates failed to make the basket. This is the only one I remember was successful:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Sebastianctcb/status/672502413941678080[/tweet]

His shot-blocking instincts are real. Granted, Bender's skinniness won't allow him to actually anchor NBA defense from the get go and he can do it 40% of the time at this level, but that shouldn't be a concern. His wingspan is 7'1" (average for big-men) and standing reach 9'3" (above average) which would allow him to be a good defender inside. The ability to switch in p&r is also very enticing. Although he doesn't contest perimeter shots well. That has to improve. Yep, it is ridiculous as it sounds, he needs to make perimeter players attack the rim.

He has always been a willing shooter (sometimes to his fault) and coaches have always pushed him to shoot. It is finally giving fruits this season. Bender basically became well above average shooter since the last season when he was well below average. This is probably the best development sign about him.

At the senior level, he doesn't have post game and doesn't rebound particularly great which can mostly be attributed to the age, position switch and lack of strength. His rebounding ability is slowly but steadily improving through the season. Emphasis on both slowly and steadily.

Bender's lack of offensive aggression is overblown when people look at the context and the fact he played aggressively when they asked him to. Context:

Spoiler:

Scouts have watched him on the 1996-97 generation squad where he was by far the youngest and where his teammates have been great youth players (Eurohopes has Arapović as #2 in 1996, Zubac as #3 in 1997, Slavica has been great in last year's u19s, Žižić is producing in very strong ABA competition since last season and Mazalin was a great youth player, point-forward whose skills haven't translated to any older level). It is not like Bender played with bunch of scrubs (for reference Givony currently has Žižić and Zubac as #22 and #21 in this year's draft link, both play inside like Bender).
And nobody can seriously expect him to be more than a spot up shooter for Maccabi. I'd like to see him pay more in pick and roll, I don't even understand why they aren't because my eye test thinks it looks good, but whatever.

My overall take on Bender is that his talent level is as high as anybody's in this draft, but his current quality level isn't. His contract would suggest the plan for Bender was to develop and contend for top 3 in 2017 or 2018, but the overall depression of this draft pushed him earlier. Is he currently the third best player? Nope. Is he the third best talent? Absolutely. If the team feels they know how to develop talent and they're committed to it, drafting Bender 3rd is no-brainer. Looking for quick-fix? Pass.

Given the variables, I'd probably rank him 3rd or 4th most attractive prospect vs Brown. Brown has a ton of NBA ready skills and awful shooting & BBIQ. Bender is much more a complete player with lower quality level. With the right development plan, I have little doubt Bender has a high chance to be great. He checks 4 out of 5 things I look for in prospects (at least one skill to get minutes, NBA level athleticism, noticeable development, no red flags). The one he doesn't check is current ability. But you have to figure out the age.

Congratz on quality post, i kinda feel the same about him with few tweaks.

Bender's body still need some work, he is on some special weight program which would allow him to remain mobile and agile while adding weight.He is currently same weight Porzingis was year ago in Sevilla.Despite both being white,tall,long shooters and having epic names there are not many similarities between them.Porzingis ceiling is higher IMO but once he fills his frame he can be Draymond Green lite, a playmaking 4 which all teams kinda search for.Worst case scenario, you get Nikola Mirotic who plays defense.Bender is not projected as some guy you just give the ball and expect to get you buckets, a go-to 1st option.I heard, he models his game to Toni Kukoc,after all.

His rebounding is leaving something to be desired, because of his lack of weight, he get pushed around by bigger, more experienced players.He is still a good rim protector(better as PF than C, especially weak side blocks,bigger players seal him down and get into his body so he cant defend them effectively yet).He reads opposing offense very well, good PnR defender, certainly helps having near-elite lateral quickness and active hands on perimeter.Once he bends his knees and get in defensive stance, its very hard to get a good shot over him.He leaves his feet a little more often for my liking and can do better job contesting on perimeter but nothing that cant be fixed.Check this link https://gfycat.com/FrenchCompassionateEquine

Bender is an absolute rarity as a 7 foot prospect, possessing the mobility and agility of a guard in a center-like body (eventually). Ideally he’ll start at the 4 position where his spacing and passing exploits can be maximized and his rebounding and girth issues minimized, but he’ll be able to play center for extended minutes, especially against reserve units, giving teams an incredible amount of lineup versatility.I imagine him as ideal fit next to Towns in Minnesota, those 2 would wreck havoc together, not sure how much they want him but if he drops couple of spots, him and Towns would be amazing together, complementing each other well.

Like you said, he became better shooter and became more aggressive. but still in limited minutes he saw in Maccabi.His mechanic is actually nice, very fluid, high release so there is no reason to think it wont translate in NBA too.There was some tweet from Sportando (i think you probably saw it) about him being eligible to join NBA right away(would be smartest thing for him probably).Maccabi is playing the worst season in recent history, and future of Vujcic is uncertain, as it is Bender's.Coaches has been changed, players have been waived and signed in the middle of the season, long story short its a dumpster fire.There are some indications, that management wants to clean house before starting new Euroleague format(more money,less teams,probably gonna end up being better for those teams involved) next season.That would include coaches, team managers, most of the players and GM.I feel that Maccabi likes Bender and it would take NBA buyout to get him out of there.Not sure he could've picked worse team than Maccabi to sign and develop through playing.Lesser teams would probably be better than this, but euro powerhouses kinda made it a pissing contest in picking up young and talented NBA prospects where almost every prospect plays some very limited role or doesn't play at all.Plus Israeli league is one of the worst i've ever watched.Something like d-league but way worse.

Regarding other croatian prospects, I'd like to see Zubac and Zizic succeed, Zubac have higher ceiling IMO, he can be something like Marc Gasol with proper work and development, giving those late bloomer signs.I like Slavica saw him play from 1-4 during this season, but from some reason he cant catch a break in ABA, and his PT is limited because of some washed-up vets in his team, and he injured finger on yesterdays game, which is also a bummer.

Anyways, sorry for hijacking the thread, kinda wanted to share my opinion about Bender and others with Murta

[Wes-J]

This is my last Mock pre-March Madness, the order of selection is the one that fivethirtyeight has as their latest prediction of the Regular Season final standings according to the data and record the teams have produced until today, and their projections for the rest of the games.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/draft_simulator/view/163628/

I have paid a bit more attention to both team needs and predictions of how a GM is likely going to operate, plus my rankings, so it is not only based on my opinion off every prospect.
Feedback is always welcome'd.

Never say never but I don't think there's anyway we pass on Murray plus Hield twice if the Celtics don't steal a top two.

[No-Man]

Seriously Hield is tremendously overrated he is a 1st round pick mainly due to this been a weak-ass class, in any other draft he would be a borderline 1st.
No way you should touch him in the lotto, and his ceiling is a good starter if his defense gets to the level where you can start him, thats pretty much it, he lacks creativity and versatility, his game is pretty one dimensional.

Murray is another story, but he is flawed as a prospect and he has little potential as a two-way player without the tools, in terms of athleticism, elite handle, or quickness, to be your primary ballhandler/perimeter reference, I like him as an off-the-ball shooter that has poise, skill and can attack some close-outs, and I'd consider him only in top10 with the Pelicans pick because they need what he offers like crazy, but his bust potential is high and for a team like Boston that is really deep at Guard he makes 0 sense.

[165bows]

Dean Demakis had a bit on this Chris Flemmings a week or two back. Having a nice game against Duke in the first round.

[Murta]

It is kinda crazy Simmons and Ingram have FT% different only by 2% considering how much of a better shooter Ingram is.

[klemen4]

Why no one ever mentioned Grayson Allen in this thread. I did not see a lot of his highlights, but looking his stas now 21p/4r/3as with 42% on 3pt.

???

[Murta]

Why no one ever mentioned Grayson Allen in this thread. I did not see a lot of his highlights, but looking his stas now 21p/4r/3as with 42% on 3pt.

???

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=1429523

[Duke4life831]

Why no one ever mentioned Grayson Allen in this thread. I did not see a lot of his highlights, but looking his stas now 21p/4r/3as with 42% on 3pt.

???

Great college player but he really struggles against size and athleticism out on the perimeter. He also has a pretty bad handle and has had a really poor year on the defensive end. If he gets drafted this year don't expect much from him for awhile. I doubt he will get much playing time and if he does he will just be used to run off screens and catch and shoot.

[Duke4life831]

Ingram showed every move in the book today. Scored 20 on 7/12 shooting, had 9 boards and 2 blocks. Had a very impressive game today

[Wes-J]

Seriously Hield is tremendously overrated he is a 1st round pick mainly due to this been a weak-ass class, in any other draft he would be a borderline 1st.
No way you should touch him in the lotto, and his ceiling is a good starter if his defense gets to the level where you can start him, thats pretty much it, he lacks creativity and versatility, his game is pretty one dimensional.

Murray is another story, but he is flawed as a prospect and he has little potential as a two-way player without the tools, in terms of athleticism, elite handle, or quickness, to be your primary ballhandler/perimeter reference, I like him as an off-the-ball shooter that has poise, skill and can attack some close-outs, and I'd consider him only in top10 with the Pelicans pick because they need what he offers like crazy, but his bust potential is high and for a team like Boston that is really deep at Guard he makes 0 sense.

Hield is asked to carry quite the load at OU and does it well so forgive him if he's not the next coming of Bruce Bowen for now. You could say the same for Murray but bottomline they're both knock down shooters and you can NEVER get enough of those guys in the league. D'Angelo Russell wasn't considered a shooter on the same level with Hield and Murray (wasn't known for D) yet was a top 3 pick. It's not like these guys are not capable, they have the tools but defense is something that comes time (offensive minded players) as long as there's effort. I have seen no indication that these kids don't work hard. And don't give me this zero sense for the Celtics stuff cause you always go best available and you never know who gets shipped out in a roster shakeup. I'm not an expert just my view on it, you wanted the feedback.

[15th overall]

RJ's old man is doing studio work for TRUtv along with Wally Z. Celtic connections everywhere.

[KumaJG]

If we don't get a top 3 Pick from Brooklyn I am going to be so sad...I just don't trust Danny Ainge come draft time.

[No-Man]

Seriously Hield is tremendously overrated he is a 1st round pick mainly due to this been a weak-ass class, in any other draft he would be a borderline 1st.
No way you should touch him in the lotto, and his ceiling is a good starter if his defense gets to the level where you can start him, thats pretty much it, he lacks creativity and versatility, his game is pretty one dimensional.

Murray is another story, but he is flawed as a prospect and he has little potential as a two-way player without the tools, in terms of athleticism, elite handle, or quickness, to be your primary ballhandler/perimeter reference, I like him as an off-the-ball shooter that has poise, skill and can attack some close-outs, and I'd consider him only in top10 with the Pelicans pick because they need what he offers like crazy, but his bust potential is high and for a team like Boston that is really deep at Guard he makes 0 sense.

Hield is asked to carry quite the load at OU and does it well so forgive him if he's not the next coming of Bruce Bowen for now. You could say the same for Murray but bottomline they're both knock down shooters and you can NEVER get enough of those guys in the league. D'Angelo Russell wasn't considered a shooter on the same level with Hield and Murray (wasn't known for D) yet was a top 3 pick. It's not like these guys are not capable, they have the tools but defense is something that comes time (offensive minded players) as long as there's effort. I have seen no indication that these kids don't work hard. And don't give me this zero sense for the Celtics stuff cause you always go best available and you never know who gets shipped out in a roster shakeup. I'm not an expert just my view on it, you wanted the feedback.

Cousins carries most of the playmaking
D-lo was drafted high because of his elite passig ability+shooting+other things, not only because of shooting
Murray has 0 defensive tools

[Duke4life831]

Seriously Hield is tremendously overrated he is a 1st round pick mainly due to this been a weak-ass class, in any other draft he would be a borderline 1st.
No way you should touch him in the lotto, and his ceiling is a good starter if his defense gets to the level where you can start him, thats pretty much it, he lacks creativity and versatility, his game is pretty one dimensional.

Murray is another story, but he is flawed as a prospect and he has little potential as a two-way player without the tools, in terms of athleticism, elite handle, or quickness, to be your primary ballhandler/perimeter reference, I like him as an off-the-ball shooter that has poise, skill and can attack some close-outs, and I'd consider him only in top10 with the Pelicans pick because they need what he offers like crazy, but his bust potential is high and for a team like Boston that is really deep at Guard he makes 0 sense.

Hield is asked to carry quite the load at OU and does it well so forgive him if he's not the next coming of Bruce Bowen for now. You could say the same for Murray but bottomline they're both knock down shooters and you can NEVER get enough of those guys in the league. D'Angelo Russell wasn't considered a shooter on the same level with Hield and Murray (wasn't known for D) yet was a top 3 pick. It's not like these guys are not capable, they have the tools but defense is something that comes time (offensive minded players) as long as there's effort. I have seen no indication that these kids don't work hard. And don't give me this zero sense for the Celtics stuff cause you always go best available and you never know who gets shipped out in a roster shakeup. I'm not an expert just my view on it, you wanted the feedback.

Russell was definitely considered as good of a shooter as Murray is. Russell shot 41% from deep on high attempts and the majority of those came off the bounce not off of catch and shoot. Plus Russell is taller and has the superior length on both Murray and Hield and those two guys are 2s while Russell is a 1 which makes that size and length even more of an advantage. Russell is also the far superior passer out of the 3.

[rroby]

"Seriously Hield is tremendously overrated"

I disagree. He's got a great body, strong defender, and he can score in a lot of different ways. When the C's lose its mostly because we can't score (sometimes a superstar shoots over us) but mostly its because we can't score. We need scorers and Buddy might be the best in the draft.