Hennigan's Drafts Re-Drafted

[cedric76]

EP will be fine, people will eat there word next season

[ezzzp]

Worst case Elfrid is our backup PG. That's the worst case. Honestly not that bad for a #10 pick for a team who desperately needed defense and athleticism at the position.

sorry, that is horrible to think that a backup PG is a good return for a #10 pick. You can get a backup PG for a few mil off, not use a lottery pick on it. i would rather say we swung and missed at the PG than say a backup PG is a good return for that pick.

It's really not horrible at all if you ready entire post and remember the situation we were in back then. It is easy to have no context and look at everything in a bubble and be critical 2 years later.

Again, to help you understand my post - I said worst case.

EP will be fine. He just needs time and needs to learn the value of playing hard all the time. His motor needs to be on way more often. His shooting is progressing.



But his defense took a step backwards.

[JTSUCF]

At the time I thought Lavine made more sense for the Magic on a number of fronts.

1. He would of provided the size to play SG and keep dipo on PG's while providing PG skill to present potential mismatches
2. He has a good shooting stroke so there would have been less guys needing to work on their jumper
3. His athleticism is off the charts so he would have fit right in with Dipo and Gordon (Not that Elf isn't athletic in his own right)
4. Keeping the Sixers pick (And sticking it to the Sixers for selecting Elf)

Elf seems like the kind of guy who will work on his game over the summer so I am hopeful that another off-season will do his shot wonders.

[No-Man]

2012

Davis
Lillard
Drummond
Green
Middleton
Beal
MKG
Fournier
Crowder
Barnes
Ezeli
Bazemore
Ross
Barton
Sullinger
Jones
Henson

BPA available at 19th something between Nicholson, Zeller, Lamb, Harkless, Leonard,... so actually Rob a pretty fair value with Nicholson.

Best players he passed on where Draymond, everybody did, Middleton, the same although he fell due to been injured in his last year at A&M, Fournier, who he got later on, Crowder, who nobody thought could have that impact as a smallball PF, Ezeli, old raw big man, Bazemore who went undrafted, Sullinger, who had medical redflags, and Barton who was seen as too skinny and not good enough as a shooter.

2013

Giannis

Then it is open, for me between Gobert and McCollum, I'd have Victor around 10th in a re-draft and I think I was down on him pre-draft compared to others, still no one got the memo on Gobert and McCollum was a small Guard from a small school.
Not so bad, the Draft is awful and likely one of the worst of all-time, difficult to evaluate.

2014

Wiggins
Jokic/Gordon
Parker/Hood

I think those 5 will go top5 in some order in a re-draft so getting Aaron at 4th seems like great value, I was not as high on Gordon as others, I had him around 10th in my board that year, I was wrong.

Getting Payton at 10th is okayish, LaVine will go higher than him in a re-draft, everybody passed on Hood in the lotto, and Nurkic was a bit of an unknown, although I had him 6th overall in this class by June.

2015; too early to tell, I think Winslow, Turner and Booker have shown more promise but Hezonja has also plenty of upside, so we shall see.

[LBPTarHeel27]

Would have kept Saric IRL. Re-draft would have had just about everyone on that list above Payton.

The way I looked at it with Elf was basically that there were a few guys that you could argue and put there....but at the end of the day, we actually did have a high interest in Elf. No one has been that much better or shown that much more potential to make the pick change.

Lavine, Clarkson, Hood, and potentially Gary Harris have imo. Clarkson is a constant ball of energy.

While I agree that those guys are playing well...I think you have a bit of the "grass is greener" syndrome. I could get on board with Lavine but there were a lot of questions about him going in to the draft. I can understand not taking him. The other guys are just getting high volume usage and wouldn't bring too much extra to our team. You take away Elf and add one of those guys, we gain some shooting at positions where we already have shooting but lose a lot of potential at the PG spot. We don't become a better team.

[yoyojw17]

The way I looked at it with Elf was basically that there were a few guys that you could argue and put there....but at the end of the day, we actually did have a high interest in Elf. No one has been that much better or shown that much more potential to make the pick change.

Lavine, Clarkson, Hood, and potentially Gary Harris have imo. Clarkson is a constant ball of energy.

While I agree that those guys are playing well...I think you have a bit of the "grass is greener" syndrome. I could get on board with Lavine but there were a lot of questions about him going in to the draft. I can understand not taking him. The other guys are just getting high volume usage and wouldn't bring too much extra to our team. You take away Elf and add one of those guys, we gain some shooting at positions where we already have shooting but lose a lot of potential at the PG spot. We don't become a better team.

I feel like... "We trade Elf... we find ourselves kicking our own butts three years later" He's not what we want riggggght now.... but i still think there is a lot to come. might have regressed... but it's the same guy that was an option for dropping a triple dub last year and made people go.... "DAMN... look at this guy!"

And anyone that says that they like Kemba walker... take a look at his numbers previous to this season. Everyones gotta start somewhere and that somewhere is not always at the top. That's why i'm down for a Mike Conley pickup... while payton preps to be "THE MAN" at the point.

[SOUL]

People overstating Payton's regression.. yes his defense is worse this year but I think after our quick start everybody's defense fell the hell off.. he got criticized at the start of the season/summer league, played well for a little while.. then once his injury started / post London trip people started getting on him and ever since then he's been jerked around, hit with injuries and nothing has been very steady.

[axl_c_cool]

People overstating Payton's regression.. yes his defense is worse this year but I think after our quick start everybody's defense fell the hell off.. he got criticized at the start of the season/summer league, played well for a little while.. then once his injury started / post London trip people started getting on him and ever since then he's been jerked around, hit with injuries and nothing has been very steady.

And1, I thought he had a really good December, don't know his stats but remember him going hard and he was playing good defence with Oladipo. He's been hurt and it's been a learning season, he's still very young!


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[Magic_Kingdom]

The one we might end up regretting, might, is Hezonja at #5 in 2015. It's too early to tell right now. But for me, I think Myles Turner is going to be a great player, and there was some talk about taking him at #5. I remember a few people on this board advocating for him at the time. But it's way too early to judge Hezonja.

IMO, Hennigan's best pick was Aaron Gordon, because I have to admit I did not like that pick at all at the time. I would've rather had Julius Randle or Marcus Smart, who might have made a quicker impact. But it's too early to judge the 2014 draft, too. Randle could end up being a really good player, but Gordon's improvement has been through the roof.

The mistake Hennigan made in 2012 was the same mistake that a lot of teams made -- he didn't want to draft a tweener, and that draft had some good ones. Draymond Green, Jared Sullinger, Jae Crowder all went below Nicholson. Obviously Green is better than AN, but a player Hennigan probably considered is Sullinger. I'd like to see Sullinger on our team. He provides some things we don't have. But Hennigan might have been scared of the injury report, as a lot of team were.

[ezzzp]

The one we might end up regretting, might, is Hezonja at #5 in 2015. It's too early to tell right now. But for me, I think Myles Turner is going to be a great player, and there was some talk about taking him at #5. I remember a few people on this board advocating for him at the time. But it's way too early to judge Hezonja.

IMO, Hennigan's best pick was Aaron Gordon, because I have to admit I did not like that pick at all at the time. I would've rather had Julius Randle or Marcus Smart, who might have made a quicker impact. But it's too early to judge the 2014 draft, too. Randle could end up being a really good player, but Gordon's improvement has been through the roof.

The mistake Hennigan made in 2012 was the same mistake that a lot of teams made -- he didn't want to draft a tweener, and that draft had some good ones. Draymond Green, Jared Sullinger, Jae Crowder all went below Nicholson. Obviously Green is better than AN, but a player Hennigan probably considered is Sullinger. I'd like to see Sullinger on our team. He provides some things we don't have. But Hennigan might have been scared of the injury report, as a lot of team were.

The Aaron Gordon pick is my favorite too, smart and gutsy pick...the media and many fans on this forum wanted Hennigan fired for not taking Dante Exum.

Hezonja vs Turner is really too soon to know. Turner is playing good but its not like he's having an epic ROTY type season. Nikola Jokic is actually having a more impressive season.

Its also hard to blame Hennigan for the Nicholson pick; he was literally hired 6 days before the draft. He had make a pick with no in-depth research and no staff in place. Even still, teams with full staffs and time to research missed on Green; and Sullinger's health would have been super risky to take as his first move as a GM.

[Optimus_Steel]

The thing about Elf that I see people mentioning is that he got worse, but did he really? He is shooting 38% from 3 this deep in the season is a very good sign. Remember he started the season shooting the 3 very poorly so for him to be at 38% is fantastic. There is hope with Elfrid. Some PG's it takes them 4 or 5 years to really get it.

[ezzzp]

Offensively, EP has shown some glimpses of gradual improvement, but his shooting %'s are still pretty ugly and there are a lot of peaks and valleys. Its very low volume, but the improved 3pt shooting gives hope.



His regression has been on the defensive end, though his defensive numbers were never that good to begin with:

[Blue_and_Whte]

Offensively, EP has shown some glimpses of gradual improvement, but his shooting %'s are still pretty ugly and there are a lot of peaks and valleys. Its very low volume, but the improved 3pt shooting gives hope.



His regression has been on the defensive end, though his defensive numbers were never that good to begin with:

I don't know if the gradual improvement is enough to get excited over either. The guys I mentioned above (Hood, Lavine, Garry Harris) would contribute to this team right now. That said, I also understand the learning curve associate with young PG's. He's 21 so I'm still holding out hope.

[Knightlife]

Notice how in each of these cases, the player we drafted isn't available at the spot we picked him.

[Knightlife]

Also in a redraft there's no way we pass on Rudy Golbert

[drsd]

People overstating Payton's regression.

Indeed.

Yes Payton had a week Jan and Feb, but he has rebounded in March to his early season form. His last three games are what we expect every game, and Payton clearly has proven he is an NBA-caliber starter. I have full expectations to see Payton in Magic blue for the next 5-8 years as Orlando's starting PG.

[cedric76]

an people here think we can draft a pg better than EP in this draft

[Blue_and_Whte]

Who do you take over Elf? Clarkson? Randle?

Randle, Hood, Lavine, and Jokic would probably be taken before Payton if there was a re-draft. I don't know about Clarkson.

I'm sure if you gave Elf the free reign those guys have, his numbers would be equally inflated.

I really doubt it. He has no jumpshot.

Alright, realistically talking, there's probably a case to be made for taking any player over him depending on the team and need. And I can see valid arguments for taking all of those guys (except Hood) over Elf.

But you've also got to allow for the fact that they're given free reign. Think about how strong Elf closed last season when he was allowed to play like that? It doesn't often equate to winning basketball, though. If you put Elf on Philadelphia right now and let him run, score and shoot a bunch of 3's, I'm sure he'd give you equally impressive numbers with just as many losses.

Payton did get free reign, Last season, and his numbers actually WERE inflated. That's why so many people are disappointed in him this season. That's why fans want to throw our young guys into the fire under the guise of "development" when in actuality its just fans wanting to see the new guys play.

[ezzzp]

Also in a redraft there's no way we pass on Rudy Golbert

In a redraft Gobert is not there for the Magic to pick as the Cavaliers would have taken him.

[Bensational]

Randle, Hood, Lavine, and Jokic would probably be taken before Payton if there was a re-draft. I don't know about Clarkson.


I really doubt it. He has no jumpshot.

Alright, realistically talking, there's probably a case to be made for taking any player over him depending on the team and need. And I can see valid arguments for taking all of those guys (except Hood) over Elf.

But you've also got to allow for the fact that they're given free reign. Think about how strong Elf closed last season when he was allowed to play like that? It doesn't often equate to winning basketball, though. If you put Elf on Philadelphia right now and let him run, score and shoot a bunch of 3's, I'm sure he'd give you equally impressive numbers with just as many losses.

Payton did get free reign, Last season, and his numbers actually WERE inflated. That's why so many people are disappointed in him this season. That's why fans want to throw our young guys into the fire under the guise of "development" when in actuality its just fans wanting to see the new guys play.

every player on this team other than Fournier and Gordon have had their numbers deflate since Skiles arrived. even Vuc and Vic.

but you see that Elf is averaging 16ppg 9apg 6.7rpg and shooting 56.4% over the last 3 games, in which he's played a game much more akin to his style (but still within the system). THAT is development, and that required throwing Elf into the fire, and he rewarded us for it. what's the problem with that?

and I don't think many people would be taking Randle, Hood, Lavine, and Jokic over the Payton of the past 3 games.