Who was more certain of position going into the NBA? Ben Simmons or Giannis

[skones]

1. I agree that passing is only useful insofar as it's actually useful. In fact, passing is the area where I would be most hesitant to call Simmons better at present, due to his high turnover rate. But the precision of his passes is a subtlety that is going to pay much greater dividends with NBA-quality shooters than it has at LSU. Having watched he and Giannis play, I can confidently say that Giannis does not possess this preternatural ability. Not that an example like this is needed, because you can see it on virtually any possession, but Keith Hornsby said that sometimes Simmons' passes to him at the three-point line are so perfect that "it's almost distracting." As someone who was a thee-point shooter with short arms and small hands (and therefore had trouble catching errant passes in rhythm), perhaps I pay closer attention to this ability than most. Whatever the case, Simmons is as good as anyone I've ever seen in this regard. As for Giannis' last 11 games, those numbers are probably better than Magic's career numbers. Jeremy Lin's first ten starts were the best for a point guard in the modern era - better than Magic, Isiah, or Kidd. But people who know the game better than I do looked at him and said, "he's an average player in this league." That's the value of the eye test over a small sample size statistically.

Giannis definitely passes the eye test since taking over offensive initiation. Obviously defenses will adjust and it'll be a question of how he handles that down the line. As someone who questioned and was annoyed over the constant overrating of GA's "vision" over the past two and a half years on the Bucks board. I'm pretty close to admitting that I was very wrong.

[scrabbarista]

I'm sure you're aware of the familiar trope that rebounding tends to translate to the NBA better than any other skill. You can't just cherry pick two guys and think it destroys hundreds of examples to the contrary, besides the fact that both of those guys are good rebounders from the small-forward position in the NBA. Saying Simmons has a lack of strength and questionable effort just leads me to believe you've never even seen the guy. He's one of the strongest 19-year-olds I've ever seen and is ferocious on the glass. It's never been his effort that's been in question, but rather his unwillingness to shoot.

It will depend on his position. The odds of him being a double-digit rebounder at the 3, for example, are quite a bit lower than if he's a full-time power forward. We know he isn't going to continue grabbing 28% of his team's offensive rebounds per game at the NBA level, and he probably won't be grabbing 33% of their defensive rebounds either, just like we know there's a near-zero chance that his 77% draw rate will translate meaningfully into the league when he arrives.

Durant's rebounding profile at Texas is very similar to Simmons'. 6'10 combo forward dude grabbing 11.1 rpg (11.9 for SImmons), 3.0 offensive, 8.1 defensive (3.1 and 8.8 for Simmons).

Durant's grabbed 7.0 rpg over his career, with three seasons at or above 7.9 (8.0 and 7.9 in 2012 and 2013, 8.2 so far this season). He's been a 2.5% ORB player (translating to 0.8 ORB/g) to date, peaking at 1.3 ORB/g in the second of two seasons he's averaged 1.0+ ORB/g in his career. He's been an 18.0% DRB player, but he's been at 20.1%+ in the last 4+ seasons, and is at 22.0% this year. He has played PF about 15% of the time over his career, and 21%+ from 2012 forward.

Simmons projects in similar fashion. There remains the possibility that he'll look a little different of course, but Beasley is a similar story (only smaller, so the fact that he's a 5.3%/17.7%/11.4% ORB/DRB/TRB guy over his NBA time is perhaps more impressive).

I wouldn't be counting on double-digit rebounding from Simmons. It's possible, I mean he's thicker and more powerful than Durant, so he MIGHT play more at the 4, but he's also going to be handling and out on the perimeter a lot, so if it happens, it'll be more on the basis of his defensive rebounding... and Durant's already quite a good defensive rebounder. To whit, of guys who've played 2,000+ minutes so far this year, he's one of 8 guys to be rocking that level of rebounding ability on the defensive end. Of the guys who have surpassed him, you're looking at Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, KAT, Kevin Love, DAJ, Andre Drummond and Thaddeus Young. Thad Young is having a wild outlier season, particularly since playing the PF position is nothing new to him, and he's previously never been above 17.2% DRB while rocking a career average of 13.6% prior to this season.

Again, it's not something to entirely rule out, but I wouldn't be banking on that rebounding translating. You normally see it reasonably well from stockier dudes who are totally going to play full-time in the frontcourt and not out on the perimeter. Reggie Evans, Danny Fortson, Chuck Hayes, guys like that. And of course your conventional 5s/tall guys who don't spend too much time shooting tons of Js.

Food for thought.

Dude, he essentially runs the point. There's no way in hell I'm expecting him to average double-digit rebounds in the league. There's like five guys that do that in any given season. The fact that it's even in play for someone of his skill-set with the ball in his hands is insane. The dude gets boards.

As far as Durant being among those nine guys, that's exactly what I said, "He's a good rebounder for his position" (I probably should have said "great") "which is exactly what he projected to be out of college, which is exactly what Simmons projects to be." I think you should have quoted the dude who gave Durant and Beasley as examples of bad rebounders - not me.

I'm not really interested in Thad Young's unusual season, no offense. What I'm interested in, aside from all the great rebounding rate numbers that you've thrown at me, are those few guys in the league who can go get you a rebound when you need one in a big moment - guys like Tristan Thompson, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and many others. Having seen him play about 18-20 games, I can say with confidence that Simmons is clearly one of those guys.

Well, I've just sat here for five minutes waiting to hit "Submit" due to my computer overheating. I'm out.

[scrabbarista]

1. I agree that passing is only useful insofar as it's actually useful. In fact, passing is the area where I would be most hesitant to call Simmons better at present, due to his high turnover rate. But the precision of his passes is a subtlety that is going to pay much greater dividends with NBA-quality shooters than it has at LSU. Having watched he and Giannis play, I can confidently say that Giannis does not possess this preternatural ability. Not that an example like this is needed, because you can see it on virtually any possession, but Keith Hornsby said that sometimes Simmons' passes to him at the three-point line are so perfect that "it's almost distracting." As someone who was a thee-point shooter with short arms and small hands (and therefore had trouble catching errant passes in rhythm), perhaps I pay closer attention to this ability than most. Whatever the case, Simmons is as good as anyone I've ever seen in this regard. As for Giannis' last 11 games, those numbers are probably better than Magic's career numbers. Jeremy Lin's first ten starts were the best for a point guard in the modern era - better than Magic, Isiah, or Kidd. But people who know the game better than I do looked at him and said, "he's an average player in this league." That's the value of the eye test over a small sample size statistically.

Giannis definitely passes the eye test since taking over offensive initiation. Obviously defenses will adjust and it'll be a question of how he handles that down the line. As someone who questioned and was annoyed over the constant overrating of GA's "vision" over the past two and a half years on the Bucks board. I'm pretty close to admitting that I was very wrong.

I hear you, man. They call him The Freak for a reason. He's got better length than most seven-footers, and he literally runs the point. Nothing I've said in this post has been intended as a knock on Giannis. Again, I love the guy. And if my tone has been defensive, I hope you can chalk it up to a 51-2 total in the poll.

[tsherkin]

Like I said, average. As you stated yourself at power forward. I was thinking positionally but didn't clarify as such.

Well, no. I said his WINGSPAN was average, but his standing reach (which is typically a better measure) was actually above average.

Dude, he essentially runs the point. There's no way in hell I'm expecting him to average double-digit rebounds in the league. There's like five guys that do that in any given season. The fact that it's even in play for someone of his skill-set with the ball in his hands is insane. The dude gets boards.

Right, right, but in context of what you actually said, you were implying that his rebounding should translate better than did Durant's or Beasley's. Remember, you were talking about rebounding as a skill translating into the league better than anything else mostly and discarding those two as atypical presentations who shouldn't be considered given the general trend. Naturally, I responded, because he shares enough in common with both players as far as positional/role projection that they are much more relevant than you seemed inclined to represent.

Perhaps you've not read the entirety of what I wrote as a result of the length; you don't seem to grasp that I'm basically saying that Simmons projects to be a rebounder fairly similar to Durant.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Look man, I love Giannis. He's a unique talent and one of the most likable characters in the game. And I wouldn't be shocked if he wins a freaking MVP award some day. I'm just saying, my faith in Ben Simmons is that strong. I think the best-case scenario with Simmons is basically something like Magic's Lakers in the 80's. I'm not passing on that for very many guys.

So basically you see Simmons's as a slower, less charismatic Giannis. I think that's fair.

I could see if going either way with Simmon's or Giannis. 5 months ago, I wouldn't have thought of Giannis as I do today. There is a huge difference between having the potential to be special versus actually taking that next step. It's no guarantee. That's why I take Giannis since he is closer to a guarantee at this point.

[AussieBuck]

Simmons isn't slower than Giannis, I'd guess similar top speed but Ben accelerates faster.

[Greek]

I dont think that is a fair comparison at all. Even Simmons can became a slide better on the offense the gap on the D will always be huge. Indeed i am a bit a homer, but my argument is legit.

[scrabbarista]

Look man, I love Giannis. He's a unique talent and one of the most likable characters in the game. And I wouldn't be shocked if he wins a freaking MVP award some day. I'm just saying, my faith in Ben Simmons is that strong. I think the best-case scenario with Simmons is basically something like Magic's Lakers in the 80's. I'm not passing on that for very many guys.

So basically you see Simmons's as a slower, less charismatic Giannis. I think that's fair.

I could see if going either way with Simmon's or Giannis. 5 months ago, I wouldn't have thought of Giannis as I do today. There is a huge difference between having the potential to be special versus actually taking that next step. It's no guarantee. That's why I take Giannis since he is closer to a guarantee at this point.

No. Nowhere did I say that or anything like it. At least not in the quote you chose. Unless you bolded that part because you think Magic was a slower, less charismatic Giannis.

[scrabbarista]

Like I said, average. As you stated yourself at power forward. I was thinking positionally but didn't clarify as such.

Well, no. I said his WINGSPAN was average, but his standing reach (which is typically a better measure) was actually above average.

Dude, he essentially runs the point. There's no way in hell I'm expecting him to average double-digit rebounds in the league. There's like five guys that do that in any given season. The fact that it's even in play for someone of his skill-set with the ball in his hands is insane. The dude gets boards.

Right, right, but in context of what you actually said, you were implying that his rebounding should translate better than did Durant's or Beasley's. Remember, you were talking about rebounding as a skill translating into the league better than anything else mostly and discarding those two as atypical presentations who shouldn't be considered given the general trend. Naturally, I responded, because he shares enough in common with both players as far as positional/role projection that they are much more relevant than you seemed inclined to represent.

Perhaps you've not read the entirety of what I wrote as a result of the length; you don't seem to grasp that I'm basically saying that Simmons projects to be a rebounder fairly similar to Durant.

I do think his rebounding will translate better. He's stronger and more capable of playing inside - whether he actually plays inside much will depend on the team he joins and his role there, but Simmons is a guy who could go into the league today and bang underneath. Durant has been in the league like seven years and could still hardly be called a banger.

I did read your whole post. It's fair to project Simmons at Durant's rate, and I see your reasons. My reply-post was meant (in, for example, bringing up some of the best rebounders in the league, even Westbrook, as comparisons with Simmons) to say that my own projection, which would incorporate the eye test along with the numbers, would be higher.

I'd have thought it would have been clear that I don't see him as similar in terms of role to Durant and Beasley. I see him as a point. More like a Magic and a Kidd (or a Giannis, for that matter), than a scoring wing like those two guys.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Look man, I love Giannis. He's a unique talent and one of the most likable characters in the game. And I wouldn't be shocked if he wins a freaking MVP award some day. I'm just saying, my faith in Ben Simmons is that strong. I think the best-case scenario with Simmons is basically something like Magic's Lakers in the 80's. I'm not passing on that for very many guys.

So basically you see Simmons's as a slower, less charismatic Giannis. I think that's fair.

I could see if going either way with Simmon's or Giannis. 5 months ago, I wouldn't have thought of Giannis as I do today. There is a huge difference between having the potential to be special versus actually taking that next step. It's no guarantee. That's why I take Giannis since he is closer to a guarantee at this point.

No. Nowhere did I say that or anything like it. At least not in the quote you chose. Unless you bolded that part because you think Magic was a slower, less charismatic Giannis.

Yes, that was the joke. Didn't think I needed green on that one.

[GYK]

Still not running the pick and roll. Still a transition playmaker. There's some passing out the post. Simmons should be able to do all of that from the first day of camp while being a pick and roll ball handler. If he's selective in his shooting(mostly transition, like GA) I don't see how he won't be as good as current GA from his rookie year.

[freewhitemoon]

For an NBA player, his length is pretty average.

He's roughly a +3" wingspan, though that's still a shade over 7 feet. It's not bad, certainly not for someone who projects as a 3/4. It isn't amazing or ATG or anything, but that's a workable wingspan for a dude at those positions. It's still about +2"over positional average for SFs and right around average for a PF (-0.25"). His standing reach is, at last measurement, 9'0.5". Average for SFs is 8'7.8" and 8'10.4", so his actual length/reach is ABOVE average at either forward position, and actually only below average compared to 9'1.2" for CENTERS.

Food for thought.

I've followd Simmons since he was at Montverde (am a aussie) and I can tell you those numbers are very wrong. He does not have a 9 foot reach and all the college scouts know this. Those numbers are from a private LSU combine designed to boost his stock and that of his teammates. His wingspan was measured at 6'11 at 2 previous occasions, just a couple months prior and his standing reach at 8'7. At this same LSU combine they claimed he had a max vertical of 41.5 inches. that would put his max reach at shaq/dwight territory. they also claim 40 inch verticals for half the LSU team and the 3 fastest 3/4 sprints in the history of college basketball. So unless you believe that he jumps higher than drose and runs the floor faster than john wall, I'd take those numbers with a grain of salt.

[freewhitemoon]

EDIT: He recorded a time faster than anyone in the history of DraftExpress' database in the 3/4 court sprint, not at the Nike Hoops Summit. Point being, he's absurdly fast.

go look at the full results of that LSU combine. they claim they have the 3 fastest guys in the history of college basketball. and half the squad that can jump 40 inches

[Magic Giannison]

Still not running the pick and roll. Still a transition playmaker. There's some passing out the post. Simmons should be able to do all of that from the first day of camp while being a pick and roll ball handler. If he's selective in his shooting(mostly transition, like GA) I don't see how he won't be as good as current GA from his rookie year.

You can't be serious, Giannis runs PNR in all his games, with Monroe, henson and Plumlee.
Transition playmaker? Giannis literally stops the ball and organizes the offense like any guard does.
Seriously, you cannot be more blind on his game.
The were many players doing wonder in college and did nothing in NBA, if you think his game will translate like that then you're highly deluded.
Edit: added a video analysis of Giannis at PG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUznksmYx1g

[Patsfan1081]

I don't think the poll is all that surprising. There isn't anything that Simmons does that is arguably better than Giannis, Giannis has been dominating NBA competition, and has a significant length and athleticism advantage.

People are saying that now after Giannis has been in the league for years now but if you compared the two befor they played a game it's a different story. It's not really a fair comparison when one is a sure thing. Both Simmons and Ingram have a higher upside to me.

[Patsfan1081]

And Kevin Durant averaged over 11 rebounds at Texas and Michael Beasley averaged over 12. It is not a forgone conclusion that Simmons is a dynamite rebounder at the NBA level, particularly given his lack of length and questionable effort at times. The idea that Simmons is a better rebounder because he's pulling down x rebounds at LSU is unfounded.

I'm sure you're aware of the familiar trope that rebounding tends to translate to the NBA better than any other skill. You can't just cherry pick two guys and think it destroys hundreds of examples to the contrary, besides the fact that both of those guys are good rebounders from the small-forward position in the NBA. Saying Simmons has a lack of strength and questionable effort just leads me to believe you've never even seen the guy. He's one of the strongest 19-year-olds I've ever seen and is ferocious on the glass. It's never been his effort that's been in question, but rather his unwillingness to shoot.

Simmons just isn't some otherworldly rebounder. He played the five quite a bit at LSU which places him close to the rim, something which won't be afforded to him at the NBA level. He's going to be playing outside more, and you're saying he's a flat out better rebounder than a guy who's collected 8 plus boards per 40 pace adjusted at the NBA level which places him near the top of his position while playing outside of the paint as well is a bit ridiculous.

Strength was never mentioned, length was. For an NBA player, his length is pretty average. There have been plenty of times this season where Simmons has given questionable effort. I don't see how that can be denied.

Bucks fans don't really have a unbiased opinion. Simmons is 19 years old, his body could still be growing and most kids coming into the NBA add a lot of strength and but on muscle the first couple years in the NBA under higher end conditioning coaches. Giannis is a example of this. Giannis has had a few season of semi pro ball in Europe and his time with the Bucks to develope, I don't understand how it's fair to compare the two, people are talking like Simmons has peaked his freshman season in college.

[Hornet Mania]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZpIog7e-R4[/youtube]

This is basically how I see the Giannis/Simmons choice. Giannis is the boat, Simmons is the mystery box. We've seen Giannis be a pretty effective young player in the NBA with sky-high potential to improve from there, at this point Simmons only has the potential but hasn't yet been able to show us how it translates.

(To be fair, the mystery box is EXTREMELY tempting)

[skones]

I'm sure you're aware of the familiar trope that rebounding tends to translate to the NBA better than any other skill. You can't just cherry pick two guys and think it destroys hundreds of examples to the contrary, besides the fact that both of those guys are good rebounders from the small-forward position in the NBA. Saying Simmons has a lack of strength and questionable effort just leads me to believe you've never even seen the guy. He's one of the strongest 19-year-olds I've ever seen and is ferocious on the glass. It's never been his effort that's been in question, but rather his unwillingness to shoot.

Simmons just isn't some otherworldly rebounder. He played the five quite a bit at LSU which places him close to the rim, something which won't be afforded to him at the NBA level. He's going to be playing outside more, and you're saying he's a flat out better rebounder than a guy who's collected 8 plus boards per 40 pace adjusted at the NBA level which places him near the top of his position while playing outside of the paint as well is a bit ridiculous.

Strength was never mentioned, length was. For an NBA player, his length is pretty average. There have been plenty of times this season where Simmons has given questionable effort. I don't see how that can be denied.

Bucks fans don't really have a unbiased opinion. Simmons is 19 years old, his body could still be growing and most kids coming into the NBA add a lot of strength and but on muscle the first couple years in the NBA under higher end conditioning coaches. Giannis is a example of this. Giannis has had a few season of semi pro ball in Europe and his time with the Bucks to develope, I don't understand how it's fair to compare the two, people are talking like Simmons has peaked his freshman season in college.

Follow the argument please. This was in response to a statement that Ben Simmons is better than Giannis at XYZ and was stated as such as that they were clear advantages at their respective stages of development, ignoring actual NBA production vs. loose translation.

[GYK]

I get GA's limited experience but how is that an advantage for Ben, having the same tools and more experience?
I like GA. Think he could be a top ten player. Simmons not being a top ten player seems highly unlikely.

Are there any Hield or Ingram threads?..particularly Hield. Not in style but in impact, he can be this draft Wade..I would like to learn more about Ingram.

[tsherkin]

I've followd Simmons since he was at Montverde (am a aussie) and I can tell you those numbers are very wrong. He does not have a 9 foot reach and all the college scouts know this. Those numbers are from a private LSU combine designed to boost his stock and that of his teammates. His wingspan was measured at 6'11 at 2 previous occasions, just a couple months prior and his standing reach at 8'7. At this same LSU combine they claimed he had a max vertical of 41.5 inches. that would put his max reach at shaq/dwight territory. they also claim 40 inch verticals for half the LSU team and the 3 fastest 3/4 sprints in the history of college basketball. So unless you believe that he jumps higher than drose and runs the floor faster than john wall, I'd take those numbers with a grain of salt.

We'll see at the Combine, no doubt. Meantime, the standing reach that's circulating around the internet at the moment is, as I said, 9'0.5 inches. With 3'5.5" of vert, we're talking 12'6 of reach, yes. I think the vertical is probably overstated, but I don't think the reach is, because they're basically reporting mildly above-average reach. 41.5 inches of vert would be over 8 inches above the average rating for a PF, and there is no PF in the DX history with a 12'6 max vert reach aside from Simmons. 12'5.5", but not 12'6. Shaq's was 12'5.

So I'm fully willing to believe that the vertical is off. That said, Simmons is a reported 6'9 in shoes, with a wingspan of 7'0.25". That's, +3.25", and fully believable. It might even be a bit off of the mark, a shade short, fine. Like I said, average wingspan is 7'1.5" and standing reach 9'0.4" for that height without shoes. Those measurements are believable, much more so than the vertical.

If we're believing that he's going to be treated as a SF, then while he has an average-ish profile (but slightly above-average reach) for a PF, he's looking in fine shape for a SF, based on measurements which are pretty reasonable.

I mean we can split hairs and battle out the semantics, I suppose, but in my mind, it really depends on where he's played in the NBA. He doesn't project as a post guy, he projects as a face-up guy, so his measurements versus PFs are basically irrelevant. He'll be able to contest in the post, and he'll be able to contest on the perimeter. He won't likely burn up the BLK/g category, especially if he's a SF, but if he is a perimeter-oriented forward on offense, then he's going to have a significant length advantage when he's moving towards the rim with a head full of steam, regardless of position. That's sort of the point.