Otto Porter Part 2

[nate33]

One last thing, Otto is very inconsistent right now. As inconsistent as Beal can be, Otto is much more so. He's been giving us a stretch of quality games lately, but there was a much longer stretch where he was totally invisible before this. Whether or not he's engaged in the game is the number one thing I look for with Otto right now. Beal has progressed beyond the point where that's still a concern with him.

When people accuse a player of being "inconsistent", it generally means that they're struggling to find a way to criticize a player when the numbers don't back up the criticism. I'd like at least some numerical evidence that Porter is more inconsistent than Beal before I give any credence to this opinion.

[tontoz]

One last thing, Otto is very inconsistent right now. As inconsistent as Beal can be, Otto is much more so. He's been giving us a stretch of quality games lately, but there was a much longer stretch where he was totally invisible before this. Whether or not he's engaged in the game is the number one thing I look for with Otto right now. Beal has progressed beyond the point where that's still a concern with him.

When Beal is off he might miss 10 shots or more which really hurts.

Porter has only 2 games all year where he has missed 10 shots. In those two games he has 22 rebounds, 5 steals and only 2 turnovers. He doesn't hurt the team when he is off the way Beal does.

This is Porters first season playing big minutes and he has an ORTG of 110. Beal has never gotten close to that.

[Kanyewest]

One last thing, Otto is very inconsistent right now. As inconsistent as Beal can be, Otto is much more so. He's been giving us a stretch of quality games lately, but there was a much longer stretch where he was totally invisible before this. Whether or not he's engaged in the game is the number one thing I look for with Otto right now. Beal has progressed beyond the point where that's still a concern with him.

When Beal is off he might miss 10 shots or more which really hurts.

Porter has only 2 games all year where he has missed 10 shots. In those two games he has 22 rebounds, 5 steals and only 2 turnovers. He doesn't hurt the team when he is off the way Beal does.

This is Porters first season playing big minutes and he has an ORTG of 110. Beal has never gotten close to that.

Although Beal takes nearly 4 more shots per game and they have nearly identical TS%.

Good point about Porter having a higher offensive rating. Although I wouldn't necessarily use that statistic because that's also significantly higher than what John Wall has posted this season. If I had to venture a guess, it seems that the Wizards do not have a good backup behind Porter while Sessions and Temple have more or less been solid backups.

[nate33]

One last thing, Otto is very inconsistent right now. As inconsistent as Beal can be, Otto is much more so. He's been giving us a stretch of quality games lately, but there was a much longer stretch where he was totally invisible before this. Whether or not he's engaged in the game is the number one thing I look for with Otto right now. Beal has progressed beyond the point where that's still a concern with him.

When Beal is off he might miss 10 shots or more which really hurts.

Porter has only 2 games all year where he has missed 10 shots. In those two games he has 22 rebounds, 5 steals and only 2 turnovers. He doesn't hurt the team when he is off the way Beal does.

This is Porters first season playing big minutes and he has an ORTG of 110. Beal has never gotten close to that.

Although Beal takes nearly 4 more shots per game and they have nearly identical TS%.

Good point about Porter having a higher offensive rating. Although I wouldn't necessarily use that statistic because that's also significantly higher than what John Wall has posted this season. If I had to venture a guess, it seems that the Wizards do not have a good backup behind Porter while Sessions and Temple have more or less been solid backups.

Porter's ORtg is higher than Beal's because he doesn't turn the ball over.

[deneem4]

When Beal is off he might miss 10 shots or more which really hurts.

Porter has only 2 games all year where he has missed 10 shots. In those two games he has 22 rebounds, 5 steals and only 2 turnovers. He doesn't hurt the team when he is off the way Beal does.

This is Porters first season playing big minutes and he has an ORTG of 110. Beal has never gotten close to that.

Although Beal takes nearly 4 more shots per game and they have nearly identical TS%.

Good point about Porter having a higher offensive rating. Although I wouldn't necessarily use that statistic because that's also significantly higher than what John Wall has posted this season. If I had to venture a guess, it seems that the Wizards do not have a good backup behind Porter while Sessions and Temple have more or less been solid backups.

Porter's ORtg is higher than Beal's because he doesn't turn the ball over.

Nah it's more cause he 17th in 2pt % bigs included...its elite company small forward wise...
If he keeps this 40% shooting streak going he will One of the top 5 shooters in the nba...
I mean in a weird 50-40-70 club...

[deneem4]

His ratings is better than Gianna's off/def this year and overall throughout their 3yr careers...
I still think he should play pf sometimes

[dckingsfan]

Interesting that Porter ranked 7th if I looked at 3rd year players with 1300+ minutes for WS/48 or VORP. I wanted to trade down for two of the bigs (I know - you guys told me that wasn't feasible in that draft). Wonder if he is 7th in PPA too.

Code: Select all

Player           Age   MP     PER    TRB%   AST%   STL%  BLK%  TOV%   WS/48   VORP
Antetokounmpo     21   2472   18.7   12.3   18.8   1.7   3.3   14.5   0.121   2.6
Gobert            23   1651   17.4   19.8    7.5   1.3   5.7   19.5   0.155   2.4
Dieng             26   1929   17.0   15.4   10.1   2.2   3.5   17.9   0.122   2.2
Plumlee           25   1833   16.7   16.4   15.7   1.5   3.1   19.2   0.130   2.0
Oladipo           23   2174   16.7    8.1   19.0   2.4   1.7   12.6   0.099   2.0
Caldwell-Pope     22   2463   12.7    5.5    7.9   2.0   0.5   8.9    0.096   2.0
Porter            22   1947   14.4    9.5    8.4   2.4   1.1   8.6    0.111   1.8
Adams             22   1708   15.2   14.2    4.0   1.0   3.4   13.8   0.153   1.6
McCollum          24   2446   17.4    5.2   21.0   1.6   0.6   10.9   0.099   1.4
Zeller            23   1561   15.5   13.9    6.5   1.5   2.6   11.7   0.158   1.0
Roberson          24   1320    9.8    8.4    4.1   1.7   2.0   10.2   0.099   1.0
Crabbe            23   1851   12.3    5.6    7.1   1.6   0.6   8.0    0.099   0.6
Schroder          22   1437   17.1    7.1   37.3   2.1   0.4   17.4   0.092   0.6
Covington         25   1565   12.6   11.9    8.5   2.8   1.8   17.1   0.041   0.6
Carter-Williams   24   1649   14.0    9.5   26.7   2.5   2.1   19.6   0.037   0.5
Dellavedova       25   1648   11.8    4.7   25.8   1.3   0.3   17.6   0.105   0.3
Burke             23   1344   13.8    4.8   19.9   1.4   0.4   10.9   0.069   0.0
Larkin            23   1385   12.8    5.5   28.5   2.8   0.6   20.9   0.034   -0.2
Canaan            24   1800   11.2    4.9   11.6   1.4   0.4   10.8   0.037   -0.3
Len               22   1477   13.5   18.3    8.0   1.1   3.2   16.3   0.045   -0.6
Thompson          24   1892    9.1    6.9    6.7   0.8   0.8   10.1   0.028   -0.6
Muhammad          23   1458   14.2    9.1    4.5   0.7   0.4   8.4    0.067   -0.9



[nate33]

Interesting that Porter ranked 7th if I looked at 3rd year players with 1300+ minutes for WS/48 or VORP. I wanted to trade down for two of the bigs (I know - you guys told me that wasn't feasible in that draft). Wonder if he is 7th in PPA too.

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player           Age   MP     PER    TRB%   AST%   STL%  BLK%  TOV%   WS/48   VORP
Antetokounmpo     21   2472   18.7   12.3   18.8   1.7   3.3   14.5   0.121   2.6
Gobert            23   1651   17.4   19.8    7.5   1.3   5.7   19.5   0.155   2.4
Dieng             26   1929   17.0   15.4   10.1   2.2   3.5   17.9   0.122   2.2
Plumlee           25   1833   16.7   16.4   15.7   1.5   3.1   19.2   0.130   2.0
Oladipo           23   2174   16.7    8.1   19.0   2.4   1.7   12.6   0.099   2.0
Caldwell-Pope     22   2463   12.7    5.5    7.9   2.0   0.5   8.9    0.096   2.0
Porter            22   1947   14.4    9.5    8.4   2.4   1.1   8.6    0.111   1.8
Adams             22   1708   15.2   14.2    4.0   1.0   3.4   13.8   0.153   1.6
McCollum          24   2446   17.4    5.2   21.0   1.6   0.6   10.9   0.099   1.4
Zeller            23   1561   15.5   13.9    6.5   1.5   2.6   11.7   0.158   1.0
Roberson          24   1320    9.8    8.4    4.1   1.7   2.0   10.2   0.099   1.0
Crabbe            23   1851   12.3    5.6    7.1   1.6   0.6   8.0    0.099   0.6
Schroder          22   1437   17.1    7.1   37.3   2.1   0.4   17.4   0.092   0.6
Covington         25   1565   12.6   11.9    8.5   2.8   1.8   17.1   0.041   0.6
Carter-Williams   24   1649   14.0    9.5   26.7   2.5   2.1   19.6   0.037   0.5
Dellavedova       25   1648   11.8    4.7   25.8   1.3   0.3   17.6   0.105   0.3
Burke             23   1344   13.8    4.8   19.9   1.4   0.4   10.9   0.069   0.0
Larkin            23   1385   12.8    5.5   28.5   2.8   0.6   20.9   0.034   -0.2
Canaan            24   1800   11.2    4.9   11.6   1.4   0.4   10.8   0.037   -0.3
Len               22   1477   13.5   18.3    8.0   1.1   3.2   16.3   0.045   -0.6
Thompson          24   1892    9.1    6.9    6.7   0.8   0.8   10.1   0.028   -0.6
Muhammad          23   1458   14.2    9.1    4.5   0.7   0.4   8.4    0.067   -0.9



And I'd throw out Plumlee and Dieng because of their age. They may be "3rd year players", but at age 25 and 26 respectively, we can reasonably predict that they're at their peak. I'd definitely take Porter over either of those guys going forward. And I'm struggling to see how Caldwell-Pope outranks Porter in VORP when Porter is literally better at everything.

I think it's pretty easy to argue that Porter will pan out to be a top 5 player in his draft class. Antetokounmpo and Gobert are better. Adams and McCollum are comparable. I'd put Porter ahead of the rest. Zeller is in the conversation, but swing men are more valuable than bigs who aren't rim protecting centers.

[dckingsfan]

Good points Nate - I really wanted Gobert... and I have been surprised by GA - if he develops a reliable jumper, yikes.

[stevemcqueen1]

One last thing, Otto is very inconsistent right now. As inconsistent as Beal can be, Otto is much more so. He's been giving us a stretch of quality games lately, but there was a much longer stretch where he was totally invisible before this. Whether or not he's engaged in the game is the number one thing I look for with Otto right now. Beal has progressed beyond the point where that's still a concern with him.

When people accuse a player of being "inconsistent", it generally means that they're struggling to find a way to criticize a player when the numbers don't back up the criticism. I'd like at least some numerical evidence that Porter is more inconsistent than Beal before I give any credence to this opinion.

And when people base their evaluations solely on numbers, it generally means they're not taking the time to watch the games. Otto has been good the last seven games. Aggressive, assertive, and productive. But before that, going back to the AS break, he had been invisible. Totally passive and unproductive. He was a running gripe about how our former #3 overall pick broke double digits three times in those 13 games. I'm not sure how anyone can have watched Otto the past couple of months and not conclude that he's been very inconsistent.

[stevemcqueen1]

When Beal is off he might miss 10 shots or more which really hurts.

Porter has only 2 games all year where he has missed 10 shots. In those two games he has 22 rebounds, 5 steals and only 2 turnovers. He doesn't hurt the team when he is off the way Beal does.

This is Porters first season playing big minutes and he has an ORTG of 110. Beal has never gotten close to that.

Although Beal takes nearly 4 more shots per game and they have nearly identical TS%.

Good point about Porter having a higher offensive rating. Although I wouldn't necessarily use that statistic because that's also significantly higher than what John Wall has posted this season. If I had to venture a guess, it seems that the Wizards do not have a good backup behind Porter while Sessions and Temple have more or less been solid backups.

Porter's ORtg is higher than Beal's because he doesn't turn the ball over.

They play completely different roles. Beal is a first or second option scorer when he's on the court. Otto's ORtg is higher because he's a fourth or fifth option. He doesn't create his own shots. ORtg makes no account for role or shot creation.

[TheSecretWeapon]

One last thing, Otto is very inconsistent right now. As inconsistent as Beal can be, Otto is much more so. He's been giving us a stretch of quality games lately, but there was a much longer stretch where he was totally invisible before this. Whether or not he's engaged in the game is the number one thing I look for with Otto right now. Beal has progressed beyond the point where that's still a concern with him.

When people accuse a player of being "inconsistent", it generally means that they're struggling to find a way to criticize a player when the numbers don't back up the criticism. I'd like at least some numerical evidence that Porter is more inconsistent than Beal before I give any credence to this opinion.

And when people base their evaluations solely on numbers, it generally means they're not taking the time to watch the games. Otto has been good the last seven games. Aggressive, assertive, and productive. But before that, going back to the AS break, he had been invisible. Totally passive and unproductive. He was a running gripe about how our former #3 overall pick broke double digits three times in those 13 games. I'm not sure how anyone can have watched Otto the past couple of months and not conclude that he's been very inconsistent.

I don't have time for a full workup using game log and my consistency tool, but here are Porter's recent PPA scores:

JAN 6 -- 122
JAN 13 -- 127
JAN 27 -- 130
FEB 11 -- 130
MAR 1 -- 134
MAR 14 -- 126

I can look at his game log next week, probably.

[nate33]

One last thing, Otto is very inconsistent right now. As inconsistent as Beal can be, Otto is much more so. He's been giving us a stretch of quality games lately, but there was a much longer stretch where he was totally invisible before this. Whether or not he's engaged in the game is the number one thing I look for with Otto right now. Beal has progressed beyond the point where that's still a concern with him.

When people accuse a player of being "inconsistent", it generally means that they're struggling to find a way to criticize a player when the numbers don't back up the criticism. I'd like at least some numerical evidence that Porter is more inconsistent than Beal before I give any credence to this opinion.

And when people base their evaluations solely on numbers, it generally means they're not taking the time to watch the games. Otto has been good the last seven games. Aggressive, assertive, and productive. But before that, going back to the AS break, he had been invisible. Totally passive and unproductive. He was a running gripe about how our former #3 overall pick broke double digits three times in those 13 games. I'm not sure how anyone can have watched Otto the past couple of months and not conclude that he's been very inconsistent.

This is completely subjective. You say Porter has been inconsistent. I say Beal has been way more inconsistent. Very few people are like Karl Malone and get almost exactly 27 and 11 every night.

[dckingsfan]

In my mind, I think that Porter is still on the way up. Kind of feel that Beal has plateaued a bit... I think next year that Porter will leave Beal in most peoples minds.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Consistency isn't really subjective. It just takes some time and effort to do the numbers.

My guess -- just eyeballing game logs and scores in my PPA updates -- is that Beal will grade out as less consistent than Porter.

[DCZards]

Injuries...and being in and out of the lineup like a yo-yo as a result of those injuries has impacted Beal's on court consistency. That shouldn't be underestimated. B'ball is very much a rhythm and routine game and BB hasn't been able to establish either this season. I feel bad for the kid because I believe a healthy Beal is a much different and much better player.

[dckingsfan]

Injuries...and being in and out of the lineup like a yo-yo as a result of those injuries has impacted Beal's on court consistency. That shouldn't be underestimated. B'ball is very much a rhythm and routine game and BB hasn't been able to establish either this season. I feel bad for the kid because I believe a healthy Beal is a much different and much better player.

And to add to that Zards, how other players get in a rhythm with you...

[nate33]

Injuries...and being in and out of the lineup like a yo-yo as a result of those injuries has impacted Beal's on court consistency. That shouldn't be underestimated. B'ball is very much a rhythm and routine game and BB hasn't been able to establish either this season. I feel bad for the kid because I believe a healthy Beal is a much different and much better player.

Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that Beal's on the court consistency will always be disrupted by injuries.

Beal will probably have a career similar to a guy like Bobby Jackson (of Sacramento). Jackson was good when healthy. He just wasn't healthy very much.

[payitforward]

One last thing, Otto is very inconsistent right now. As inconsistent as Beal can be, Otto is much more so. He's been giving us a stretch of quality games lately, but there was a much longer stretch where he was totally invisible before this. Whether or not he's engaged in the game is the number one thing I look for with Otto right now. Beal has progressed beyond the point where that's still a concern with him.

When people accuse a player of being "inconsistent", it generally means that they're struggling to find a way to criticize a player when the numbers don't back up the criticism. I'd like at least some numerical evidence that Porter is more inconsistent than Beal before I give any credence to this opinion.

And when people base their evaluations solely on numbers, it generally means they're not taking the time to watch the games. Otto has been good the last seven games. Aggressive, assertive, and productive. But before that, going back to the AS break, he had been invisible. Totally passive and unproductive. He was a running gripe about how our former #3 overall pick broke double digits three times in those 13 games. I'm not sure how anyone can have watched Otto the past couple of months and not conclude that he's been very inconsistent.

You may not have noticed but win vs. loss is determined 100% by numbers. You get no credit for being more "visible."

It's not a matter of "basing" the evaluation on numbers. The numbers *are* the evaluation. Players put up numbers, their teams win. They don't put up numbers, their teams lose.

[deneem4]

When people accuse a player of being "inconsistent", it generally means that they're struggling to find a way to criticize a player when the numbers don't back up the criticism. I'd like at least some numerical evidence that Porter is more inconsistent than Beal before I give any credence to this opinion.

And when people base their evaluations solely on numbers, it generally means they're not taking the time to watch the games. Otto has been good the last seven games. Aggressive, assertive, and productive. But before that, going back to the AS break, he had been invisible. Totally passive and unproductive. He was a running gripe about how our former #3 overall pick broke double digits three times in those 13 games. I'm not sure how anyone can have watched Otto the past couple of months and not conclude that he's been very inconsistent.

You may not have noticed but win vs. loss is determined 100% by numbers. You get no credit for being more "visible."

It's not a matter of "basing" the evaluation on numbers. The numbers *are* the evaluation. Players put up numbers, their teams win. They don't put up numbers, their teams lose.

Technically I don't think there's any data that records how much attention a player is given offensively...
In Otto case it may be cutting and not getting the ball...but getting another defensive player attention...
Some players can move in a word; discreetly across the court...I like to consider Otto one of those guys....opportunist...who gets to where it's good for him and the team...
It's a shotchart but no overall stat sheet for that