Political Roundtable Part VIII

[crackhed]

I'm aware of this. They may be right, they may not. Head to head polls taken this early in the cycle are completely meaningless. We will see how Trump improves once he has unified the GOP and they stop stabbing each other in the back. And we will see how Hillary drops once she faces some actual opposition on her record and her multiple scandals.

Reagan trailed Carter by 20 points at this time in the cycle and went on to win in a landslide.

I do know that Democrats seem a lot more worried about facing Trump than they do Cruz or Kasich.

well donald trump isn't reagan, and maybe you underestimate what there is out there yet uncovered by the republicans about donald trump. hillary's problems are very well known by everyone already

I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm not saying you're right either. I really don't know.

What I do know is that the old Bush/Dole/McCain/Romney coalition of red states just isn't going to get it done. The demographics have changed enough to render that strategy obsolete. Cruz or Kasich can only follow the same path, which means they can't win. Trump is at least a wild card. I don't know if he can win, I just know the others can't. I'd rather take my chances with Trump.

thats fair, best wishes.
but it's hard to fathom a more politically favorable period that i've seen for conservatives in decades.. both houses, most state houses, etc. heck of a smart decision to throw that all away with a demagogue like trump

[dckingsfan]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-important-states-on-trumps-path-to-1237-delegates/

Nate Silver has his projected track of what candidates need to get to 1237, but he doesn't actually try and predict what they will actually get and where. I couldn't find an analysis like mine anywhere, so I made one up.

The most important takeaway is that with the high number of winner-take-all states going forward, it's really easy for Trump to get the 51% of the remaining delegates necessary to get to 1237.

Yep, I thought your analysis was good... Just another perspective.

[closg00]

So this happened today
https://t.co/5bvVEwMVF8

[nate33]

So this happened today
https://t.co/5bvVEwMVF8

A really stupid mistake by Trump.

He had the moral high ground when Cruz was attacking him by going after his wife. He may have even gotten some sympathy from the women vote. Instead, he just couldn't control himself and had to respond like a child. This will hurt him.

In general, I give Trump a lot of leeway with his non-politician, regular-guy tactics. I think, for the most part, they only turn off the people who wouldn't have voted for him in the first place. But this one was a big error. He went too far. And it was so unnecessary.

[dckingsfan]

But why said the frog...

[tontoz]

So this happened today
https://t.co/5bvVEwMVF8

A really stupid mistake by Trump.

He had the moral high ground when Cruz was attacking him by going after his wife. He may have even gotten some sympathy from the women vote. Instead, he just couldn't control himself and had to respond like a child. This will hurt him.

In general, I give Trump a lot of leeway with his non-politician, regular-guy tactics. I think, for the most part, they only turn off the people who wouldn't have voted for him in the first place. But this one was a big error. He went too far. And it was so unnecessary.

Could you translate Trumps response for those of us that don't speak twitter?

[Ruzious]

So this happened today
https://t.co/5bvVEwMVF8

A really stupid mistake by Trump.

He had the moral high ground when Cruz was attacking him by going after his wife. He may have even gotten some sympathy from the women vote. Instead, he just couldn't control himself and had to respond like a child. This will hurt him.

In general, I give Trump a lot of leeway with his non-politician, regular-guy tactics. I think, for the most part, they only turn off the people who wouldn't have voted for him in the first place. But this one was a big error. He went too far. And it was so unnecessary.

How did Cruz attack Trump's wife?

[AFM]

I don't get it. That's not Trumps Twitter, it's "don Vito's"?
I also don't understand Twitter

[nate33]

So this happened today
https://t.co/5bvVEwMVF8

A really stupid mistake by Trump.

He had the moral high ground when Cruz was attacking him by going after his wife. He may have even gotten some sympathy from the women vote. Instead, he just couldn't control himself and had to respond like a child. This will hurt him.

In general, I give Trump a lot of leeway with his non-politician, regular-guy tactics. I think, for the most part, they only turn off the people who wouldn't have voted for him in the first place. But this one was a big error. He went too far. And it was so unnecessary.

How did Cruz attack Trump's wife?

A PAC supporting Cruz produced an anti-Trump add in Utah featuring Melania half-naked on a bearskin rug. It was from years ago, back when she was a model. It was an appeal to the conservative people of Utah: "Do you want this slut as your first lady?" (They didn't actually call her a slut, but it was implied.)

Trump should have gotten really indignant and made a big deal out of Cruz's low blow tactics. Instead, he got even lower - spoiling his advantage.

[nate33]

So this happened today
https://t.co/5bvVEwMVF8

A really stupid mistake by Trump.

He had the moral high ground when Cruz was attacking him by going after his wife. He may have even gotten some sympathy from the women vote. Instead, he just couldn't control himself and had to respond like a child. This will hurt him.

In general, I give Trump a lot of leeway with his non-politician, regular-guy tactics. I think, for the most part, they only turn off the people who wouldn't have voted for him in the first place. But this one was a big error. He went too far. And it was so unnecessary.

Could you translate Trumps response for those of us that don't speak twitter?

He basically called Cruz's wife ugly and compared her to his attractive wife.

[dckingsfan]

Yep, this is where Trump is at a disadvantage of not having a PAC. If he did, they would have done the dirty work - and he could have been, why did you start this. Instead...

[tontoz]

He basically called Cruz's wife ugly and compared her to his attractive wife.

That's cold.

[closg00]

I don't get it. That's not Trumps Twitter, it's "don Vito's"?
I also don't understand Twitter

Trump may have re-tweeted that pic, i'm not sure but it became associated with Trumps response.

[closg00]

Ted Cruz is done now, The National Enquier is running a story about Cruz and 5 misstress's. The Enquirer has a history of scooping the mainstream media when it comes to political sex scandals.

[dckingsfan]

If it is well publicized before UT primary - you can stick a fork in him. And to think his own PAC started his demise

[TGW]

The only non-scumbags in these elections are Bernie Sanders and John Kasich. Everyone else will have their own special place in hell.

[closg00]

The only non-scumbags in these elections is Bernie Sanders and John Kasich. Everyone else will have their own special place in hell.

Truth!!

[Ruzious]

Ted Cruz is done now, The National Enquier is running a story about Cruz and 5 misstress's. The Enquirer has a history of scooping the mainstream media when it comes to political sex scandals.

Nah, Wikipedia is the only source I can trust with absolute certainty.

[closg00]

I don't get it. That's not Trumps Twitter, it's "don Vito's"?
I also don't understand Twitter

There is a story into today's Post about Megyn Kelly and they posted the pic again. Apparently this Don Vito posted it and Trump retweeted the pic with that response. The Republican establishment is horrified no-doubt.

[nate33]

Ted Cruz is done now, The National Enquier is running a story about Cruz and 5 misstress's. The Enquirer has a history of scooping the mainstream media when it comes to political sex scandals.

Nah, Wikipedia is the only source I can trust with absolute certainty.

They named names. (Well, they included 5 photos with black bars across their eyes, 3 of which have subsequently been identified.) I don't think the Enquirer would provide so much detail if they didn't have pretty good evidence, or else they could be sued for slander. I think this thing has legs.