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Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II

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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1021 » by BIRDMAN BIRDMAN » Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:56 pm

http://m.palmbeachpost.com/news/sports/basketball/goran-dragic-hassan-whiteside-build-connection-aft/nqqGt/

Good read. Apparently, Spo tried to make the Dragic/Whiteside thing work despite having that rocky road early on by having them fix up their issues, now you could see they're much more comfortable with each other. :nod:
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1022 » by RexBoyWonder » Wed Mar 23, 2016 2:54 pm

BIRDMAN BIRDMAN wrote:http://m.palmbeachpost.com/news/sports/basketball/goran-dragic-hassan-whiteside-build-connection-aft/nqqGt/

Good read. Apparently, Spo tried to make the Dragic/Whiteside thing work despite having that rocky road early on by having them fix up their issues, now you could see they're much more comfortable with each other. :nod:


Great read, and great development. The improvement have been extremely visible.

Some issues are simply about reps. You play more with a groups of guys, you get to know their games better, you learn their tendencies, what they like or don't on the court, their weaknesses. Chemistry is very real and heavily influenced by time and reps.

That's why I'm fine with keeping this team for next year without bringing in big free agents, this Dragon/Blockside connection will only grow stronger with even more reps, and so will most other connections between everyone. We'll improve solely based on that.
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1023 » by Seabass777 » Wed Mar 23, 2016 5:49 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikescriba/status/712681665546485760[/tweet]
"Til the last second...Til the last man... We Fight! We Fight! We Fight!"-Together We Rise. #HEATLifer...
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1024 » by DeeDub » Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:04 pm

RexBoyWonder wrote:
BIRDMAN BIRDMAN wrote:http://m.palmbeachpost.com/news/sports/basketball/goran-dragic-hassan-whiteside-build-connection-aft/nqqGt/

Good read. Apparently, Spo tried to make the Dragic/Whiteside thing work despite having that rocky road early on by having them fix up their issues, now you could see they're much more comfortable with each other. :nod:


Great read, and great development. The improvement have been extremely visible.

Some issues are simply about reps. You play more with a groups of guys, you get to know their games better, you learn their tendencies, what they like or don't on the court, their weaknesses. Chemistry is very real and heavily influenced by time and reps.

That's why I'm fine with keeping this team for next year without bringing in big free agents, this Dragon/Blockside connection will only grow stronger with even more reps, and so will most other connections between everyone. We'll improve solely based on that.


I think that's equally true, if not moreso, about the Dragic-Bosh chemistry. On paper they should be very complementary but it didn't really show in the first half of this season. Of course, that's not a lot of time to develop chemistry like that. If/when Bosh comes back, I think he'll blend in well with the faster pace we are playing now and eventually he and Dragic will develop that chemistry to become the deadly pick-and-pop tandem so many of us envisioned when we got Dragic.
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1025 » by gom » Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:16 am

The good news is that I see us retaking 3rd place fairly soon. The bad news is that I'm not sure we can keep it. Our season will depend on the last 10 days of Eastern Conference scuffling. Between now & then we have to get our work done though.


Spoiler:
Projections for 3-10 Eastern Conference (through Apr 3, 2016)

Taken into account:

Home Performance
Road Performance
Performance against 60%+ teams
Performance against 50%+ teams
Performance against 50%- teams
Performance against 33%- teams

Numbers are rounded to one decimal place and the sum added to determine number of wins. See notes that follow.

Atlanta (42-30) (Milwaukee, @Detroit (B2B), Chicago, @Toronto, @ Cleveland) (2.6) (3-2) (45-32) 5 games to play
Boston (42-30) (@Phoenix, @Clippers, @Portland, @Golden State (B2B), @Lakers) (2.9) (3-2) (45-32) 5 games to play
Miami (41-30) (Orlando, Brooklyn, @Lakers, @Kings, @Portland (B2B)) (3.5) (4-1) (45-31) 6 games to play
Charlotte (41-30) (@Detroit, @Milwaukee (B2B), @Philadelphia, Philadelphia, @Cleveland) (3.2) (3-2) (44-32) 6 games to play
Indiana (37-33) (New Orleans, @Brooklyn, Houston (B2B), Chicago, Orlando, @Philadelphia, @New York (B2B)) (4.7) (5-2) (42-35) 5 games to play
Detroit (38-34) (Charlotte, Atlanta (B2B), Oklahoma City, Dallas, @Chicago) (2.5) (3-2) (41-36) 5 games to play
Chicago (36-34) (@New York, @Orlando, Atlanta, @Indiana (B2B), @Houston, Detroit, @Milwaukee (B2B)) (3.5) (4-3) (40-37) 5 games to play
Washington (35-36) (Minnesota, @Lakers, @Golden State, @Sacramento (B2B), @Phoenix, @Clippers) (3-3) (38-39) 5 games to play

Notes:

There are other factors. Some teams like Lakers, Suns, etc are now in tank mode and will likely not perform up to expectations. In this regard, I may have overestimated Milwaukee's effectiveness. This is important because Charlotte plays Milwaukee on a B2B. I gave Charlotte 0.6 (for their 0.64 score). A "7" there moves them to 3.3 instead of 3.2.

Other teams Warriors, Clippers, etc will rest players in preparation for postseason. Remember this happened last year when Boston went to play in Cleveland. Charlotte plays there on Apr 3. If Lebron sits, for example, that game is not a 0.3.

Finally, there are possibilities of injuries, suspensions, and whatnot. I did not take this into account. Jae Crowder being out for example is not weighed here.

Miami's value was actually 3.45 but I gave an extra home (0.05) to round it up to 4. I don't see us losing any of these games, but I'm a Heat fan.

Remember that the game decisions are integral so fractions of a game will disappear as we go forward.

Later I will also take 538's numbers into account to see what difference exists.

Rounded game percentage values for each game follow:

3/24:

New Orleans @ Indiana (0.8)
Chicago (0.6) @ New York

3/25:

Orlando @ Miami (0.7)
Minnesota @ Washington (0.7)
Charlotte (0.6) @ Detroit (0.4)
Milwaukee @ Atlanta (0.8)

3/26:

Indiana (0.7) @ Brooklyn
Chicago (0.6) @ Orlando
Atlanta (0.5) @ Detroit (0.5)
Charlotte (0.6) @ Milwaukee
Boston (0.9) @ Phoenix

3/27

Houston @ Indiana (0.7)
Washington (0.7) @ Lakers

3/28

Brooklyn @ Miami (0.8)
Atlanta (0.6) @ Chicago (0.4)
Boston (0.4) @ Clippers

3/29

Chicago (0.4) @ Indiana (0.6)
Charlotte (0.8) @ Philadelphia
Oklahoma City @ Detroit (0.5)
Washington (0.1) @ Golden State

3/30

Washington (0.6) @ Sacramento
Miami (0.8) @ Lakers
Atlanta (0.3) @ Toronto

3/31

Chicago (0.5) @ Houston
Orlando @ Indiana (0.7)
Boston (0.5) @ Portland

4/1

Miami (0.7) @ Sacramento
Philadelphia @ Charlotte (0.9)
Dallas @ Detroit (0.6)
Cleveland @ Atlanta (0.4)
Boston (0.3) @ Golden State
Washington (0.8) @ Phoenix

4/2

Miami (0.5) @ Portland
Indiana (0.7) @ Philadelphia
Detroit (0.5) @ Chicago (0.5)

4/3

Charlotte (0.3) @ Cleveland
Washington (0.3) @ Clippers
Chicago (0.5) @ Milwaukee
Indiana (0.5) @ New York
Boston (0.8) @ Lakers
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1026 » by gom » Fri Mar 25, 2016 5:23 pm

For the first time this season, FiveThirtyEight.Com has given us a chance to win the title:

Spoiler:
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1%
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1027 » by dolphinatik » Fri Mar 25, 2016 8:12 pm

9th best chance to win the title is like getting a 3 seed in the tourney. Ill take those odds. Realistically we have an even shot to reach the ecf if we don't have to face the Cavs early.
1. Herro 2. Bol Bol 3. Seko 4. Bruno
unless we trade up for Barrett or trade down for PJ Washington
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1028 » by Tony15 » Sat Mar 26, 2016 12:44 pm

I read that our home game against Detroit was pushed back to 8pm and is gonna be nationally televised on TNT. Does anyone have our record on national TV handy?


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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1029 » by Heat_Fan_87 » Sat Mar 26, 2016 1:35 pm

ref joey crawford did a q&a and some interesting things(ray allen hero 3)
What do you remember most about that shot?

Crawford: I am looking at Duke Callahan and he was the slot [referee]. And Allen shoots it and it goes in and he is behind the 3-point line. So Duke says, "I want to go to the replay." I said, "Why?" [Callahan says] it's too important. So we go over and what happens? Duncan came into the game. And he's not allowed to come into the game [during a review]. Thank God he didn't score a bucket [after that]. That would have been awful. So then we get fined. We blew a rule. I told Duke you should pay my fine.
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1030 » by ElDoggo » Sat Mar 26, 2016 2:10 pm

What a fun team the Miami Heat are at this point. I don't even care if they are not the best team, they are a fun team to watch that works hard, plays a fun style and can maybe upset a few teams in the playoffs (Cavs, Raps?) Cheers to this team. Whiteside is great, Richardson and Winslow are awesome, Dragic is a solid point man, Wade still has some moves, Deng kills, JoeJ... love em all.
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1031 » by Heat03 » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:20 pm

Tony15 wrote:I read that our home game against Detroit was pushed back to 8pm and is gonna be nationally televised on TNT. Does anyone have our record on national TV handy?


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No but I'm pretty sure our only win on national TV was against the Thunder. Our record on tv is **** which is kind of alarming because every playoff game will be on tv.
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1032 » by Heat_Fan_87 » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:21 pm

Doctor P wrote:What a fun team the Miami Heat are at this point. I don't even care if they are not the best team, they are a fun team to watch that works hard, plays a fun style and can maybe upset a few teams in the playoffs (Cavs, Raps?) Cheers to this team. Whiteside is great, Richardson and Winslow are awesome, Dragic is a solid point man, Wade still has some moves, Deng kills, JoeJ... love em all.

I love seeing guys histle and give 100%. winslow, jrich, love watching these guys grow. Hopefully tj is back soon.
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1033 » by Mars » Sun Mar 27, 2016 5:59 pm

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"10" MORE DAYS...
GUTS™
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1034 » by Heat_Fan_87 » Sun Mar 27, 2016 6:10 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JasonLieser/status/714152064863961088[/tweet]
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1035 » by Chalm Down » Sun Mar 27, 2016 9:25 pm

From reddit: Top shooting guards statistical comparison

https://infogr.am/top_sgs_compared_statistically
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1036 » by RexBoyWonder » Sun Mar 27, 2016 9:35 pm

Chalm Down wrote:From reddit: Top shooting guards statistical comparison

https://infogr.am/top_sgs_compared_statistically


Great little nugget. This confirms what we already know - Wade is a smart well rounded great player, especially with the ball, but his total lack of a 3 point shot is killing him and takes away a lot of his efficiency.

If he shot even a mediocre 34% on open catch and shot 3's, not only would he be considered a top 2 SG in the league, it would help him and the team a tremendous amount.
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1037 » by 3ballbomber » Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:55 pm

RexBoyWonder wrote:
Chalm Down wrote:From reddit: Top shooting guards statistical comparison

https://infogr.am/top_sgs_compared_statistically


Great little nugget. This confirms what we already know - Wade is a smart well rounded great player, especially with the ball, but his total lack of a 3 point shot is killing him and takes away a lot of his efficiency.

If he shot even a mediocre 34% on open catch and shot 3's, not only would he be considered a top 2 SG in the league, it would help him and the team a tremendous amount.

One day we'll get a full explanation for why Wade has absolutely no desire to even attempt to improve his 3pt shooting. In an era where the 3ball is a significant part of the game i'm quite baffled by this. Instead he opts for fade away, leaning jumpshots and has hardly even been consistent. I doubt we complain about his lack of 3pointers if his J's were actually consistent enough for us not to criticize. I wish he'd go in the gym w/ Kobe & help Wade sharpen that J. Both Jordan & Kobe perfected that mid range in their later years, Wade should do the same.

W/ that said i am just glad that Wade is healthy and still playing. He has stated he did not think he'd be here for this long. Perhaps this may explain a few things today.
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1038 » by Bishop45 » Mon Mar 28, 2016 12:05 am

I feel like Wade will embrace taking a few more 3's one of these seasons before he's retired just cause he's tired of hearing about it
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1039 » by Chalm Down » Mon Mar 28, 2016 12:08 am

Bishop45 wrote:I feel like Wade will embrace taking a few more 3's one of these seasons before he's retired just cause he's tired of hearing about it


Starting with end-of-game 3's to send the game into overtime :wink:
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Re: Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II 

Post#1040 » by QUIZ » Mon Mar 28, 2016 12:30 am

Mars wrote:Image

"10" MORE DAYS...

Seasons coming to an end fast.
Don’t let us get one. — Nikola Jovic

Dru Smith very lucky he got that 500k this year. He should invest and manage a subway after all this-MettaWorldPanda

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