What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games?

[Magic_Kingdom]

Jason Smith's usage rates since the new year:
Jan: 23.3%
Feb: 25.6%
March: 26.8%

Tobias Harris' usage rate before he left town: 17%.
Drops mic.

USG distorts with minutes and you are comparing a 34 mpg guy vs a 15 mpg guy....for example Fournier has a 19% USG....oops better pick that mic back up ...

...Smith just shoots a lot for a back up center, but in the end he only plays 15 mpg and that mpg is a little bloated because of the increased minutes from Vuc's injury.

Exactly, and in addition to that, when Smith is on the floor it is usually with the second team, and he is a scoring option in that second unit. Tobias (and Fournier) play with starters, and other capable scorers. Including Oladipo, who might like to shoot a lot.

[Knightlife]

Being a ball handler does not boost USG Rate. USG is based on ended possessions within minutes played using FGA, FTA and TOV - all contextualized within the team's numbers.

Smith averaged 14.6mpg in February. The boost to 17mpg came as a result of Vucevic's injury in the first week of March. When Smith is on the floor he is always playing with the second unit, who are all vets except for Hezonja. So I have no idea wth you are talking about with the "just because he is a vet" thing.

That second unit needs to score any way it can; it absolutely needs to take the open shot when it has it. The shot that most teams can't defend is the long 2 from a center. Those wide open looks are there because centers do not like to drift out that far from the rim. The second unit offense is just taking what the defense gives. That is not some devious conspiracy for Skiles to only help out vets.

Fair enough, I have been completely under the impression that usage rate also takes into account assists numbers; which would be intuitive.

But most of my point stands. Jason Smith is a largely limited player who only really scores in a single way- long twos. Look at his shot chart for the year: 63 FGA at the rim, 285 FGA from 16 feet out. Regardless of who else is on the floor, he has no business being allowed to shoot as often as he does. I can think of several bench players who would provide much better offense, one of whom is Hezonja. If you were to allow Hezonja to actually dictate the offense for even just 5 minutes a game, I think you would be wowed by the results not only with the team, but also in Hezonja's personal development.

But that'll never happen because he's in Skiles' dog pound simply for being a rookie.

You say Skiles will NEVER let Hezonja develop or contribute and use him being a rookie as a reason why.

Will Hezonja be a rookie next year? How about the year after that? For someone confident enough to open petitions demanding major changes to a franchise, you don't seem to understand the basics very well.

A. Assuming Skiles doesn't try to get him traded next year and B. Harris was a sophomore when he originally to us after having minutes even further restricted from his rookie year. Likewise, Payton is a sophomore who Skiles has showed very limited patience for. C. Basing a players contribution strictly based on how many years they've been in the league is irrational and narrow minded. If Hezonja is ready to contribute now, the fact that he isn't contributing can only be attributed to Skiles' irrationality.

[ezzzp]

Fair enough, I have been completely under the impression that usage rate also takes into account assists numbers; which would be intuitive.

But most of my point stands. Jason Smith is a largely limited player who only really scores in a single way- long twos. Look at his shot chart for the year: 63 FGA at the rim, 285 FGA from 16 feet out. Regardless of who else is on the floor, he has no business being allowed to shoot as often as he does. I can think of several bench players who would provide much better offense, one of whom is Hezonja. If you were to allow Hezonja to actually dictate the offense for even just 5 minutes a game, I think you would be wowed by the results not only with the team, but also in Hezonja's personal development.

But that'll never happen because he's in Skiles' dog pound simply for being a rookie.

Rookie has nothing to do with it. It has to do with Mario being raw and not being better than other players in front of him. The myth of Skiles not playing rookies or young players has been debunked a thousand times with statistical facts on this forum. It is not true.

Mario was absolutely not prepared to defend in the NBA day 1. If you look at video of him defending in the first few months, you will see he was not only totally out of sync with the entire defensive rotations, but he didn't even have the right body positioning. He would be standing upright out of a defensive stance and never raised his arms. He was totally unsustainable on the defensive end.

If you look at him now, he is in the right body positioning and he grinds it out on the defensive end. There is a clearly noticeable difference. He got that from being held accountable. Of course he still has a long way to go on that end to be considered more than an average defender, but at least now he has the basic body positioning and intensity on defense that allows him minutes on the floor.

As far as Skiles giving him just 5 minutes to dictate the game, well he does with the second unit - more than anyone except the point guards...and that number has increased gradually and even more so since the Harris trade:



Also, its not as if Mario has been lighting it up. Especially after the trade with an increased role and opportunities.

Season:
42.1 FG%
33.7 3PT%
49.9 eFG%
52.7 TS%

Post Trade:
40.6 FG%
29.5 3PT%
47.4 eFG%
48.6 TS%

[Blue_and_Whte]

Fair enough, I have been completely under the impression that usage rate also takes into account assists numbers; which would be intuitive.

But most of my point stands. Jason Smith is a largely limited player who only really scores in a single way- long twos. Look at his shot chart for the year: 63 FGA at the rim, 285 FGA from 16 feet out. Regardless of who else is on the floor, he has no business being allowed to shoot as often as he does. I can think of several bench players who would provide much better offense, one of whom is Hezonja. If you were to allow Hezonja to actually dictate the offense for even just 5 minutes a game, I think you would be wowed by the results not only with the team, but also in Hezonja's personal development.

But that'll never happen because he's in Skiles' dog pound simply for being a rookie.

Rookie has nothing to do with it. It has to do with Mario being raw and not being better than other players in front of him. The myth of Skiles not playing rookies or young players has been debunked a thousand times with statistical facts on this forum. It is not true.

Mario was absolutely not prepared to defend in the NBA day 1. If you look at video of him defending in the first few months, you will see he was not only totally out of sync with the entire defensive rotations, but he didn't even have the right body positioning. He would be standing upright out of a defensive stance and never raised his arms. He was totally unsustainable on the defensive end.

If you look at him now, he is in the right body positioning and he grinds it out on the defensive end. There is a clearly noticeable difference. He got that from being held accountable. Of course he still has a long way to go on that end to be considered more than an average defender, but at least now he has the basic body positioning and intensity on defense that allows him minutes on the floor.

As far as Skiles giving him just 5 minutes to dictate the game, well he does with the second unit - more than anyone except the point guards...and that number has increased gradually and even more so since the Harris trade:



Also, its not as if Mario has been lighting it up. Especially after the trade with an increased role and opportunities.

Season:
42.1 FG%
33.7 3PT%
49.9 eFG%
52.7 TS%

Post Trade:
40.6 FG%
29.5 3PT%
47.4 eFG%
48.6 TS%

Great post. Yet again more facts (That will be ignored) debunking the Skiles myths created In this forum.

[Xatticus]

Nicholson MPG < 36

We are 0-1 when he plays 36+ minutes. That loss coming against Philly. Very telling.

Further, when he plays 26+ minutes, we are 4-22.

Not that I know this is the case for Nicholson, but you expect extended playing time for non-rotation options when you are getting romped.

[Xatticus]

Good summary. Also explains why usage (and by extension PER) is a busted stat. A guy like Ricky Rubio has the ball in his hands (based on time of possession) as much as John Wall, but if you check their usage numbers, it seems like Ricky doesn't do much.

Exactly. I really dislike PER. It doesn't measure efficiency. Any player's offensive efficiency is going to suffer diminishing returns as their usage goes up. This is the entire point of measuring efficiency.

I can understand why a comprehensive metric would attempt to weight a player's offensive contributions. PER gives way too much weight to usage, presumably because Hollinger wanted to create a metric that echoed popular perception.

[craig01]

I'll skip all of the analyticals and just say that there are too many players logging minutes and not producing.

When players log 20 minutes and score just a couple of points, others have to make up that shortfall.

[KingRobb02]

Good summary. Also explains why usage (and by extension PER) is a busted stat. A guy like Ricky Rubio has the ball in his hands (based on time of possession) as much as John Wall, but if you check their usage numbers, it seems like Ricky doesn't do much.

Exactly. I really dislike PER. It doesn't measure efficiency. Any player's offensive efficiency is going to suffer diminishing returns as their usage goes up. This is the entire point of measuring efficiency.

I can understand why a comprehensive metric would attempt to weight a player's offensive contributions. PER gives way too much weight to usage, presumably because Hollinger wanted to create a metric that echoed popular perception.

Well Durant and Curry kind of kill the theory behind the usage curve. But I think PER is better at comparing guys with similar usage rather than comparing the entire league. PER has it's uses. I mostly think of it as a way to predict who will get paid. Guys like Cousins can shoot 45% on over 20 shots per game while being a turnover machine (that's bad by the way) but his high usage keeps his PER in the 20s. Thus, people will continue to think he is a top 10 player.

[KingRobb02]

I'll skip all of the analyticals and just say that there are too many players logging minutes and not producing.

When players log 20 minutes and score just a couple of points, others have to make up that shortfall.

That's not fair. Scoring points is not really the best way to measure value. A guy like Draymond can completely dominate a game without scoring a point. Scoring is actually the easiest skill for an NBA team to find.

[LBPTarHeel27]

I'll skip all of the analyticals and just say that there are too many players logging minutes and not producing.

When players log 20 minutes and score just a couple of points, others have to make up that shortfall.

That's not fair. Scoring points is not really the best way to measure value. A guy like Draymond can completely dominate a game without scoring a point. Scoring is actually the easiest skill for an NBA team to find.

I would agree with the overall point though...too many players logging minutes. Players need to have consistent minutes in order to produce consistent play. Right now, things are all over the place because of injuries/the tank but if you go back to when we were actually trying to be consistent and win, things still weren't right with PT. I have no data to back it up...just the eye test and personal experience.

Comparing a couple games by us back when we were still trying to win...one where we had a great showing and won vs. another where is was contested but lost. The games were back to back, with the loss coming on the front end.

The win: Only 9 players played, all starters logged at least 27 minutes.
The loss: EVERY player on the active roster played, 7 players played 14 minutes or less.

You have to give players a chance to get in to a rhythm, in to the flow of the game...get a feel for the opponent. If you are playing 14 minutes...there's no way you can accomplish that.

[Xatticus]

Good summary. Also explains why usage (and by extension PER) is a busted stat. A guy like Ricky Rubio has the ball in his hands (based on time of possession) as much as John Wall, but if you check their usage numbers, it seems like Ricky doesn't do much.

Exactly. I really dislike PER. It doesn't measure efficiency. Any player's offensive efficiency is going to suffer diminishing returns as their usage goes up. This is the entire point of measuring efficiency.

I can understand why a comprehensive metric would attempt to weight a player's offensive contributions. PER gives way too much weight to usage, presumably because Hollinger wanted to create a metric that echoed popular perception.

Well Durant and Curry kind of kill the theory behind the usage curve. But I think PER is better at comparing guys with similar usage rather than comparing the entire league. PER has it's uses. I mostly think of it as a way to predict who will get paid. Guys like Cousins can shoot 45% on over 20 shots per game while being a turnover machine (that's bad by the way) but his high usage keeps his PER in the 20s. Thus, people will continue to think he is a top 10 player.

Curry and Durant don't exactly kill the curve, they just haven't reached the point at which their returns diminish significantly, which is a testament to their abilities.

And yes, I agree that PER has its uses. I just believe player efficiency rating is a misnomer. You can definitely glean more by comparing players with similar usage rates, but then why include that in the formula at all? It's also useful for tracking an individual player's development or performance from year to year. But again, you have to dissect the meaning from the fluctuations in PER. By itself, it is a highly misleading metric.

In fairness to Cousins, he gets to the free throw line a ton. If he were on a roster where he wasn't required to carry such a massive portion of the offensive burden, one would expect his efficiency to improve significantly.

[Xatticus]

I'll skip all of the analyticals and just say that there are too many players logging minutes and not producing.

When players log 20 minutes and score just a couple of points, others have to make up that shortfall.

That's not fair. Scoring points is not really the best way to measure value. A guy like Draymond can completely dominate a game without scoring a point. Scoring is actually the easiest skill for an NBA team to find.

This. After the Magic completely dismantled the remnants of the dynasty that didn't happen, everyone was questioning how the Magic would even score enough points to win. The result was the heart and hustle team that averaged more than 100 points scored per game with a roster full of NBA flotsam.

The NBA is filled with players that could score if given the opportunity to do so. Most of them were the stars on their collegiate teams. For whatever reasons, we laud the players that pour in points, even when they do so inefficiently.

[BadMofoPimp]

I would take Defense over Offense any day of the week. A solid Offensive System will create open shots and layups which most NBA players should be able to knock down.

[JF5]

Fair enough, I have been completely under the impression that usage rate also takes into account assists numbers; which would be intuitive.

But most of my point stands. Jason Smith is a largely limited player who only really scores in a single way- long twos. Look at his shot chart for the year: 63 FGA at the rim, 285 FGA from 16 feet out. Regardless of who else is on the floor, he has no business being allowed to shoot as often as he does. I can think of several bench players who would provide much better offense, one of whom is Hezonja. If you were to allow Hezonja to actually dictate the offense for even just 5 minutes a game, I think you would be wowed by the results not only with the team, but also in Hezonja's personal development.

But that'll never happen because he's in Skiles' dog pound simply for being a rookie.

Rookie has nothing to do with it. It has to do with Mario being raw and not being better than other players in front of him. The myth of Skiles not playing rookies or young players has been debunked a thousand times with statistical facts on this forum. It is not true.

Mario was absolutely not prepared to defend in the NBA day 1. If you look at video of him defending in the first few months, you will see he was not only totally out of sync with the entire defensive rotations, but he didn't even have the right body positioning. He would be standing upright out of a defensive stance and never raised his arms. He was totally unsustainable on the defensive end.

If you look at him now, he is in the right body positioning and he grinds it out on the defensive end. There is a clearly noticeable difference. He got that from being held accountable. Of course he still has a long way to go on that end to be considered more than an average defender, but at least now he has the basic body positioning and intensity on defense that allows him minutes on the floor.

As far as Skiles giving him just 5 minutes to dictate the game, well he does with the second unit - more than anyone except the point guards...and that number has increased gradually and even more so since the Harris trade:



Also, its not as if Mario has been lighting it up. Especially after the trade with an increased role and opportunities.

Season:
42.1 FG%
33.7 3PT%
49.9 eFG%
52.7 TS%

Post Trade:
40.6 FG%
29.5 3PT%
47.4 eFG%
48.6 TS%

I agree to this... Hezonja (Unlike Gordon) isn't really prepared to play heavy minutes (Well now he should be because the season is virtually over). His shot was the only aspect of his game that was NBA ready, and even that's falling for him. Next season he'll probably show up to training camp a helluva a lot better.