Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

[The Consiglieri]

Am I the only one that would seriously consider blowing up the team entirely at this point? The only thing that makes me disinclined to do so are Wall's age, and the cap situations for summer '16 and '17. As currently constructed this team will not become a second tier contender in the East, let alone a legit contender. I'd be very tempted to trade virtually everything of value away over the coming two years if not for Wall's age, Beal's impending potential FA, and those cap dollars.

Anyone else getting to the point where blowing up the team wouldn't bother them at all?

[sashae]

Nope. I don't see a future in the next 2 years that dramatically changes the future of the team for Walls benefit - can't see the team doing it but Wall for say.. a young guy and a couple picks? Blow it up! I say this as someone who loves Wall as a player, we just aren't going to compete for a title in a reasonable timeline without some real amazing luck...

[Ruzious]

If next season is a failure, that's the time to make the decision. We'd actually have our first round pick, and we could trade Wall, Beal, and Gortat. Until/unless that happens, starting over isn't an option.

[Dark Faze]

Am I the only one that would seriously consider blowing up the team entirely at this point? The only thing that makes me disinclined to do so are Wall's age, and the cap situations for summer '16 and '17. As currently constructed this team will not become a second tier contender in the East, let alone a legit contender. I'd be very tempted to trade virtually everything of value away over the coming two years if not for Wall's age, Beal's impending potential FA, and those cap dollars.

Anyone else getting to the point where blowing up the team wouldn't bother them at all?

If we were two years away from Walls free agency I'd be right there with you but its too early. Still an outside shot at a Cousins trade.

If we overpay a middling Rudy Gay tier player and max Brad and it looks like this is our core moving forward until Walls extension...then I'd be ready to blow it up.

[payitforward]

If next season is a failure, that's the time to make the decision. We'd actually have our first round pick, and we could trade Wall, Beal, and Gortat. Until/unless that happens, starting over isn't an option.

I'm a little surprised. This season wasn't an anomaly; it was the chickens coming home to roost, and it was no surprise. I don't see how next season can be anything *but* a failure (unless a person believes in KD2DC, and I'm just leaving that silly idea out of consideration).

We have only 5 guys under contract for next year (leaving Beal aside for the moment). So, yes, it looks like we have a lot of cap room: only 7 teams have less money tied up for next year.

Unfortunately, that's quite misleading. Compare to San Antonio, for example: with the 2 guys they will certainly bring back (Kyle Anderson and Jonathon Simmons) and their R1 pick's salary, they have @ $67m in committed salaries. We have $22m more cap room.

But, SA's $67m pays for 11 players. They'll give Aldridge a lot of $$, ink Marjanovic and 1-2 inexpensive players, and they'll ride off into the sunset. There are about 8-10 other teams in more or less the same situation: they look to be in tighter salary binds than we, but in fact the opposite is true.

Keep in mind that with the cap rising next year, player salaries will rise across the board. We'll buying our new bench at 2016 retail prices. Plus, no draft picks and no assets to use in a trade outside of Brad Beal. The off season won't be pretty, and the season itself can hardly avoid being a big mess.

So, yeah -- break up the team; we're heading into the narrow end of the funnel. But... not unless Ernie Grunfeld is relieved of his duties. I'd hate to watch him do another "rebuild."

[Ruzious]

If next season is a failure, that's the time to make the decision. We'd actually have our first round pick, and we could trade Wall, Beal, and Gortat. Until/unless that happens, starting over isn't an option.

I'm a little surprised. This season wasn't an anomaly; it was the chickens coming home to roost, and it was no surprise. I don't see how next season can be anything *but* a failure (unless a person believes in KD2DC, and I'm just leaving that silly idea out of consideration).

We have only 5 guys under contract for next year (leaving Beal aside for the moment). So, yes, it looks like we have a lot of cap room: only 7 teams have less money tied up for next year.

Unfortunately, that's quite misleading. Compare to San Antonio, for example: with the 2 guys they will certainly bring back (Kyle Anderson and Jonathon Simmons) and their R1 pick's salary, they have @ $67m in committed salaries. We have $22m more cap room.

But, SA's $67m pays for 11 players. They'll give Aldridge a lot of $$, ink Marjanovic and 1-2 inexpensive players, and they'll ride off into the sunset. There are about 8-10 other teams in more or less the same situation: they look to be in tighter salary binds than we, but in fact the opposite is true.

Keep in mind that with the cap rising next year, player salaries will rise across the board. We'll buying our new bench at 2016 retail prices. Plus, no draft picks and no assets to use in a trade outside of Brad Beal. The off season won't be pretty, and the season itself can hardly avoid being a big mess.

So, yeah -- break up the team; we're heading into the narrow end of the funnel. But... not unless Ernie Grunfeld is relieved of his duties. I'd hate to watch him do another "rebuild."

It depends on how they do this offseason. They probably won't get Durant, but there are lots of other ways to use their cap room. Am I optimistic? No. But starting from scratch now - when we don't even have a first round pick - and with Beal being a free agent - wouldn't make much sense.

[payitforward]

We have 5 guys on our roster. We *are* starting from scratch! Most of the cap room will go to fill out the roster. At the new retail, we won't be paying Garrett Temple $1m. How well can we do this offseason? Teams that only need to sign 1 top player will soak up the best FAs.

Then again, to me, "blow up the team" means "fire Ernie Grunfeld." So, I can see no reason whatever to wait.

John Wall, for example, is probably more valuable today than he'll ever be -- precisely *because* his next free agency is till 3 years a way, so he's underpaid relative to the league. The longer that remains the case, the more you can get for him.

But, of course, we aren't going to blow up the team. We aren't going to fire Ernie Grunfeld. Instead, we are going to get to watch another roll downhill. Do you really have the stomach for that?

[Illuminaire]

I have to agree with PIF. If the goal is to get the Wizards into true contention as quickly as possible, this is the off-season to blow things up.

There will be plenty of teams with cap space who miss out on the handful of quality free agents. There will be a decent number of organizations trying to make the Grunfeldian leap from meh to goodish, and it won't be hard to talk some of them into Bealieving the Wiz have the answer to their prayers.

If I was running the Wiz I'd look to do a controlled detonation. First, dangle a Beal sign-and-trade to free agency losers; I'd look for an unprotected first and a sweetener here (like a second pick or a raw young player). Beal isn't actually worth that right now but his reputation sure is.

I'd take calls on Porter but would not sell low. He's on a great contract and is a fantastic glue guy, but he won't make a bad team over-achieve so there's no reason to trade him unless the price is right. He's also young enough to grow with the rebuild. (He's also a likely candidate to be under-valued throughout his career due to low points per game numbers... which makes him a wonderful player to keep around for the long haul).

I don't think I'd try to move Morris over the summer, but I'd certainly make some calls to any team with a thin frontcourt. At his salary he'd make a fine 3rd big for a good team, and I'd pretty much take whatever I could get for him (mid to late future first preferably, but who is that foolish?)

Wall would be close to the last piece I'd actively move. (If you start shopping him first, team's know you're ready for a fire sale and you lose leverage) If a team was willing to part with a superstar package over the summer (2 or more unprotected picks and a young player), I'd pull the trigger. If no one called with those kinds of offers, I'd wait until at least Beal and hopefully Morris was gone before actively hunting for that kind of deal. I'm pretty sure one would be out there - Wall is talented enough that at least one team would be sure they were getting a top-10 player, even if reasonable analytics argue otherwise.

Gortat I would try to keep around for the rest of the year, to co-lead the team with Porter and provide the veteran stability that rebuilds like Philly lacked. Of course, if someone blew me away with an offer I'd bring in a longtooth free agent big to fill that gap instead, but there is value in having a real starting caliber NBA player around to show rookies the ropes. Especially if we get the chance to draft a big man; even instant stars like Davis would benefit from veteran guidance, given the complexity of the PF/C position in today's NBA.

For coaching I would try to woo Thibs hard. I'm talking the whole red carpet package, wine, flowers, whatever it takes. I'd try to sell him on the long view, that we're an organization committed to winning it all. And, in stark contrast to the Bull's FO, that we're committed to HIM. I'd tell him that we want him to be our Pops, and that while we know it will take some luck (and a year or two of sucking) to get him a Duncan, we want to put him in position to contend for a decade.

If he's not willing to do that I'd take a flyer on David Blatt. I think he was criminally underrated in Cleveland and put into a situation no coach could have succeeded in. There's a strong chance he's "just a guy", but there's still a chance that he could be an upper tier NBA coach and a difference maker. I'd let him us all find out with a rebuilding Wiz team.

TL;DR - A competent, aggressive FO could blow up the current treadmill team and turn it into 3-6 extra draft picks (not counting second rounders), a bunch of young guys with potential, a coach with upside, and a real future that doesn't top out at a second round blow out.

[deneem4]

Whiteside is not a head case, he is a hot head.

Actually he is both... IMO - I haven't seen the huge maturity jump one would expect since the Kings days. Game wise, yes. Maturity no.

He has not really done anything to suggest that he is a head case, like Gleen Rice III, nick young, McGee, MWP and other famous head cases. He has a temper many players who have tempers can have long and successful careers with out killing a team. But they have to learn how to control that rage. But again with Gortat does going after whiteside make sense? Sure we could trade gortat but you could have gortat come off the bench but IDK if he would be ok with doing that, but can you imagine Whiteside/gortat!

I feel like if we win the loto and get say #3or#2 we need to trade Beal and take Buddy. That would free up major cap space!
I think a sign and trade for beal to Philly makes sense,
Beal gets the max, gets to be the man,
In return we get Noel, and/or some number of picks in this years draft from philly, they need established players and those picks don't mean a whole lot to them at this point.
Some might say why don't they just sign Beal then, Well beal might want the absolute max he can get to go to philly or he can go somewhere else or just stay here. I think its a solid Idea!

Il trade gortat before beal...no matter what, beal is only 22 he has 4 more years before his prime and his biggest problem is shot selection that's something a good coach can fix...

Il sign biyombo this offseason to a good contract...he will be much cheaper than Noel...if you want to go that route...(I mean Thompson for love sounded great at the time)

And btw gortat can net us a good return...I see the pacers or Hawks maybe wanting him...
If we can get whiteside....
il gladly trade gortat they, won't be a good combo to start and we would waste gortat bringing him off the bench

[The Consiglieri]

We have 5 guys on our roster. We *are* starting from scratch! Most of the cap room will go to fill out the roster. At the new retail, we won't be paying Garrett Temple $1m. How well can we do this offseason? Teams that only need to sign 1 top player will soak up the best FAs.

Then again, to me, "blow up the team" means "fire Ernie Grunfeld." So, I can see no reason whatever to wait.

John Wall, for example, is probably more valuable today than he'll ever be -- precisely *because* his next free agency is till 3 years a way, so he's underpaid relative to the league. The longer that remains the case, the more you can get for him.

But, of course, we aren't going to blow up the team. We aren't going to fire Ernie Grunfeld. Instead, we are going to get to watch another roll downhill. Do you really have the stomach for that?

I'm on the same page. The problems I have are that some of are assets aren't at ideal value like Beal, and Porter. I would seriously consider trading Wall at this point because he's the one asset we have that could garner enormous value back, and in truth this team cannot, and will not ever be able to win anything without moving on from it's current construction, and I happen to believe that there is virtually zero chance we can do an effective total rebuild without moving Wall as a part of the starter as he is the only asset that we could get full scale rebuild caliber assets for.

That's the rock and the hard place to me, don't trade Wall and are only assets are Beal, Porter, Gortat and Oubre, and none of them would get franchise changing assets back for, and considering how big a whole trading some of them would create, it would be a net zero of a trade. Still, I wonder what Wall could pull back for us, and if in some fantasy land we did trade him, what could we get back? Don't know.

It's imperative to me that it gets blown up, but like you, I kind of doubt we do it. So instead of indulging in fantasy, what is the scenario of what would happen if Ted basically has enough like he did with the Caps after they traded All Star prospect Filip Forsberg for literally nothing, and fires GMGM, a few months after GMGM had left his last, truly horrible mark (worst trade ever for the Caps, and in the NHL this decade) on the franchise.

It does feel very similar to that year. GMGM trades Forsberg in last ditch horrible effort to save his job via landing a bottom seed sweep position for the playoffs by trading one of the three best prospects the Caps had drafted in the past twenty years for a player who scored two goals in 60+ games with the Caps (supposed player was supposed to jump start our offense even though he was a total non-entity to begin with, meanwhile Forsberg has scored 57 goals as a 20 and 21 year old in his first 150+ games in the NHL). It's doubtful anyone we would have drafted in this '16 class would be as impactful and as talented as Forsberg (a top 3 prospect in the '12 class who by some miracle (basically there was a run on defensemen early in the first in that draft, and every player GMGM wanted, all defensemen, were peeled off the board to the last man by our pick so Forsberg, a player he didn't want, inexplicably fell to us at slot 11), but considering our draft slot likely would have been 10th-12th, guys like Rabb, Poeltl, Lab, Sabonis, Stone etc would have been close to slot or there.

So to me, this situation smells a bit like 2013 with the Caps when GMGM sold low on an immensely talented prospect (or young asset for analogy purposes) to save his own skin and get a short half-week appearance in the playoffs, and it sure as hell looks like what EG did here, much like he did with selling away a shot at the NBA's best player (and other prospects) for a rental of Mike Miller and Randy Foye (actually that analogy is nearly identical) back in '09, was the same sort of thing that was the last straw for Ted when it came to the Caps. So all things considered, it wouldn't shock me at all if Ted finally made EG walk the plank after this disaster.

[The Consiglieri]

I have to agree with PIF. If the goal is to get the Wizards into true contention as quickly as possible, this is the off-season to blow things up.

There will be plenty of teams with cap space who miss out on the handful of quality free agents. There will be a decent number of organizations trying to make the Grunfeldian leap from meh to goodish, and it won't be hard to talk some of them into Bealieving the Wiz have the answer to their prayers.

If I was running the Wiz I'd look to do a controlled detonation. First, dangle a Beal sign-and-trade to free agency losers; I'd look for an unprotected first and a sweetener here (like a second pick or a raw young player). Beal isn't actually worth that right now but his reputation sure is.

I'd take calls on Porter but would not sell low. He's on a great contract and is a fantastic glue guy, but he won't make a bad team over-achieve so there's no reason to trade him unless the price is right. He's also young enough to grow with the rebuild. (He's also a likely candidate to be under-valued throughout his career due to low points per game numbers... which makes him a wonderful player to keep around for the long haul).

I don't think I'd try to move Morris over the summer, but I'd certainly make some calls to any team with a thin frontcourt. At his salary he'd make a fine 3rd big for a good team, and I'd pretty much take whatever I could get for him (mid to late future first preferably, but who is that foolish?)

Wall would be close to the last piece I'd actively move. (If you start shopping him first, team's know you're ready for a fire sale and you lose leverage) If a team was willing to part with a superstar package over the summer (2 or more unprotected picks and a young player), I'd pull the trigger. If no one called with those kinds of offers, I'd wait until at least Beal and hopefully Morris was gone before actively hunting for that kind of deal. I'm pretty sure one would be out there - Wall is talented enough that at least one team would be sure they were getting a top-10 player, even if reasonable analytics argue otherwise.



TL;DR - A competent, aggressive FO could blow up the current treadmill team and turn it into 3-6 extra draft picks (not counting second rounders), a bunch of young guys with potential, a coach with upside, and a real future that doesn't top out at a second round blow out.

Like your ideas and and you make a good point in how to manipulate Wall's value to avoid low ball offers, whats' also attractive to remember is that w/this blow up we'd also have our own very high picks, if we do a controlled detonation, we'd still have quite high picks to work with just based on our own ineptitude .

[Illuminaire]

Agreed. And with a good GM making those picks, the Wizards would be an exciting young team by 2018. With lottery luck for a franchise player, they'd be a neo-contender on the rise and really fun to watch even as they learn how to win. Without such luck they'd still be the Celtics, a young team loaded with tradeable assets.

[Ruzious]

We have 5 guys on our roster. We *are* starting from scratch! Most of the cap room will go to fill out the roster. At the new retail, we won't be paying Garrett Temple $1m. How well can we do this offseason? Teams that only need to sign 1 top player will soak up the best FAs.

Then again, to me, "blow up the team" means "fire Ernie Grunfeld." So, I can see no reason whatever to wait.

John Wall, for example, is probably more valuable today than he'll ever be -- precisely *because* his next free agency is till 3 years a way, so he's underpaid relative to the league. The longer that remains the case, the more you can get for him.

But, of course, we aren't going to blow up the team. We aren't going to fire Ernie Grunfeld. Instead, we are going to get to watch another roll downhill. Do you really have the stomach for that?

It's pretty much a given that the Wiz will sign Beal. So, no it's not starting from scratch - because the 6 guys are going to be the bulk of what they build around. If you blow up the core of the roster, then you start from scratch. You could even make the case that as long as they have Wall, they're not starting from scratch. We "aren't" starting from scratch this offseason. AGAIN, it would be

Spoiler:

STUPID

to do so when you have no picks and you do have enough talent to take a shot with cap room.

[Illuminaire]

The existing core of the Wizards roster has shown no signs of becoming elite, Ruz. At the same time, after Beal's payday there will be no more chances to pick up a difference maker in free agency, and this off-season a LOT of teams will be competing for a very small pool of those difference makers.

So sure, take your shot. If you snag a true star that's awesome.

But if you can't... what exactly is stupid about acknowledging that the Wall-Beal-Porter-Gortat core is not good enough? (And, due to how long it's been together, too expensive/inflexible to easily fix)

[BigA]

Agreed. And with a good GM making those picks, the Wizards would be an exciting young team by 2018. With lottery luck for a franchise player, they'd be a neo-contender on the rise and really fun to watch even as they learn how to win. Without such luck they'd still be the Celtics, a young team loaded with tradeable assets.

Some very interesting posts here.

Another risk/opportunity consideration with keeping vs. getting rid of Ernie is the free agent market. Keeping Ernie would represent an endorsement by Ted of the current structure/direction, and a continuation of the fiction that the Wizards are just a piece or two away from being real contenders. Assuming a miss on KD2DC, Ernie will have an incentive to not only max out Beal (regardless of his actual market value) but to get into a bidding war for whatever 2nd and 3rd tier FAs can fit into the remaining cap space. The risk is that the Wizards will sign some pretty bad contracts that they will have to expend assets to extricate themselves from in a few years, after even Ted has to admit that they need to rebuild again.

With new management, the Wizards could move along the lines suggested by you above, maintain their cap flexibility, and then be in a position to take on a bad contract or two (of the many that will be inevitably signed this summer and next summer), picking up additional assets.

[Ruzious]

The existing core of the Wizards roster has shown no signs of becoming elite, Ruz. At the same time, after Beal's payday there will be no more chances to pick up a difference maker in free agency, and this off-season a LOT of teams will be competing for a very small pool of those difference makers.

So sure, take your shot. If you snag a true star that's awesome.

But if you can't... what exactly is stupid about acknowledging that the Wall-Beal-Porter-Gortat core is not good enough? (And, due to how long it's been together, too expensive/inflexible to easily fix)

My point was that it would be ultrafoolish to start from scratch in a year where we don't even have any draft picks and you do have cap room. You don't have the assets to start a rebuild, but you do have the cap room to make major improvements. Therefore, you have to make a stab at making the major improvements this offseason. Starting from scratch includes trading John Wall. Do you really want to do that this offseason?

[pcbothwel]

I will say that even without KD, Whiteside provides a wild card to us. As great as CP3 is, having Centers that play above the rim (Chandler & Jordan) help immensely with accurate oops.
Combine that with the fact that he then makes our 2nd best player, Gortat, expendable. What is important is that while Gortat is 32, he has been extremely productive, efficient, and healthy each of the 3 years he has been here. Starting off this year Gortat looked unfocused, but after he took a week off to go back to Poland to deal with his ailing mother he has comeback and been better than ever the last 45 games.

Compare him to the other Centers in their late 20's-30's and the landscape looks totally different than 2-3 years ago. The following players looked to be tier higher just 2-3 years ago, but bloated salaries and injuries actually make Gortat comparable if not more valuable.

Howard (30) - Numerous injuries have taken their toll and Gorat has been better the last 3 years. Will be making 30M+.
Gasol (31) - Major Foot injury at 31 is no good. While he is great defensively, Gortat has been on the same level as a player the last couple years. Has 4/94M left on his contract
Pekovic (30) - Has fell off a cliff the last couple years and is a total non entity. still has 2/24M left on his contract
Vucevic (25) - Young and on a fair contract like Gortat, but as his usage increased the last 2-3 years his efficiency and rebounding have dropped. Has never been a good defensive Center.
Asik (30) - Like Pekovic, it wasnt that long ago that Asik was more valuable than Gortat to many people. Health hurt his defense and a non existent offensive game have combined with a new 4 year contract to make Asik a complete negative.
Noah (31) - Nene took his soul 2 years ago and he never got it back, injuries and lack of offensive game have hurt him. Great reclamation project for a year, but nowhere near Gorat.
Chandler (33) - Wow, that decline happened fast. Maybe the Suns are really that bad, but Len appears to be doing better. With 3/39M left on his deal, he has no positive value as of now.

So that leaves everyone without DeAndre Jordan, Drummond, Whiteside, KAT, Anthony Davis (though he could be a PF), Valanciunas, and Cousins in the market.

We could get at least a mid 1st for him which allows us to gain future assets while still getting a strong team in 2016/17. It also eats into our cap for a net loss of about 10M, so we could bring over Satoransky, sign Noah to a 1-year deal, bring back Anderson for the vet min, sign a sessions replacement, etc.

Wall / PG / Sato
Beal / Sato / Anderson
Otto / Oubre / Sato / Anderson
Morris / FA
Whiteside / Noah

Thats a competitive team in the East with a new GM and coach. It still leaves us open the possibility to go after a 2017 FA or even blow it up.

[gambitx777]

I would still look to trade Beal to a place like Philly, Boston, Kings, LAC something like that where you can get a decent player and maybe a pick in return for a sign and trade. Kings might take him and give us bellnelli and their first for him? Noel and a first from philly, (they have like picks 3-4 this year) Boston ( maybe that nets pick and micky or something a little less like their late pick and Kelly O ) LAC J.J. and a Pick?

[Illuminaire]

My point was that it would be ultrafoolish to start from scratch in a year where we don't even have any draft picks and you do have cap room. You don't have the assets to start a rebuild, but you do have the cap room to make major improvements. Therefore, you have to make a stab at making the major improvements this offseason. Starting from scratch includes trading John Wall. Do you really want to do that this offseason?

That's not quite the right way of looking at things, as I reason it.

Not having draft picks this year isn't a consideration for blowing things up or not, because the results of this season are a sunk cost. They've happened and nothing we can do now will change them.

On the other hand, trying to patch together a semi-competitive (but ultimately futile) squad around Wall will impact draft picks to come, and thus the future of the team. For examples of this, see the career of Ernie Grunfeld.

As for your points about free agency and cap room, sure. As I said, take a shot, there's nothing to lose. But I would consider it foolish to plan for or rely on free agency this year. The NBA has never seen a situation where so many teams will be bidding big money for the same number of players. There are going to be insane contracts offered by desperate or poorly run teams... it's not a situation to bet your team's future on.

If you read my long post you will see that I advocate looking to make trades after free agency sweeps through and most teams are left broken hearted or picking for scraps among mediocre players. So again, make a case to the handful of difference makers... but if you can't land one of those (and there are not many!), the most reasonable course of action is to detonate the current roster.

Lastly, yes, I would absolutely trade Wall if the right offer was available. As I noted in my longer post, I would be patient with Wall and try to move Beal and Morris first. If it took until the deadline, that's fine; Denver was patient with Melo and that worked out fine for them (asset acquisition wise).

[pcbothwel]

I would still look to trade Beal to a place like Philly, Boston, Kings, LAC something like that where you can get a decent player and maybe a pick in return for a sign and trade. Kings might take him and give us bellnelli and their first for him? Noel and a first from philly, (they have like picks 3-4 this year) Boston ( maybe that nets pick and micky or something a little less like their late pick and Kelly O ) LAC J.J. and a Pick?

I understand the frustration with Beal because I've had it with him as well. But even the pure analytics folks say next year is really the pivotal year. He doesnt need to be the next great SG, but simply the next Khris Middleton or Klay Thompson. Both of whom struggled until they broke out in their 3rd year at 23.

Again, If we assume that Beal takes the next leap as a SG, Otto continues his improvements (though not as pronounced), We replace Gortat with Whiteside, and we add Satoransky... Then I think that is a strong team in the East. This also includes no real improvement from Wall. He would simply improve by taking less shots with Satoransky and an improved Beal/Otto.

As I've said before with Beal. There are 4 general outcomes with him going foward as a player.
1) He takes big leap and becomes top tier SG.
2) He takes gradual leap each of the next 2 years and becomes Wes Mathews/Kris Middleton (AS conversation, but not elite).
3) He becomes marginally better, but not note worthy and essentially becomes role player
4) He makes no improvement and has continuing injuries.

If he gets a 4-year max (4/96M), then he is a positive asset in scenarios 1 and 2, somewhat neutral asset in scenario 3, and a negative asset in scenario 4. If we take out the two extremes (Scenarios 1 & 4), then our real downside appears to be a player that would have to be dumped on one of the many losers in the 2017 FA period. I can live with that, but I can't watch us let him walk and feel the way Detroit or Utah did about letting Middleton and Mathews go.