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Summer Trade Targets; Who Blows it Up?

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Incognito76
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Re: RE: Re: Summer Trade Targets; Who Blows it Up? 

Post#81 » by Incognito76 » Fri Apr 1, 2016 5:36 pm

cedric76 wrote:
Incognito76 wrote:[
We have 0.05% chance of getting KD. Why do you think we will pass 40 wins next year? And why do you think we can get big FA in 2017? Our only chance of getting competative team is if we get great players through draft or overpay for FAs.


Easy

KD, we might even have less chances than that

Why do you think we will pass 40 wins next year?
No reason not too with so much talent and growth

And why do you think we can get big FA in 2017?
We ll have a lot of money under the cap and be a very attractive destination for FA


We have around 30% chance of getting to playoffs next year without mayor FA signing this year.
There will be other teams with cap that have better teams, better city, better players then Magic who will be competing with us for few all star caliber players.
Draft is the answer and trades not FA for small market teams.
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Re: RE: Re: Summer Trade Targets; Who Blows it Up? 

Post#82 » by cedric76 » Fri Apr 1, 2016 5:50 pm

Incognito76 wrote:
cedric76 wrote:
Incognito76 wrote:[
We have 0.05% chance of getting KD. Why do you think we will pass 40 wins next year? And why do you think we can get big FA in 2017? Our only chance of getting competative team is if we get great players through draft or overpay for FAs.


Easy

KD, we might even have less chances than that

Why do you think we will pass 40 wins next year?
No reason not too with so much talent and growth

And why do you think we can get big FA in 2017?
We ll have a lot of money under the cap and be a very attractive destination for FA


We have around 30% chance of getting to playoffs next year without mayor FA signing this year.
There will be other teams with cap that have better teams, better city, better players then Magic who will be competing with us for few all star caliber players.
Draft is the answer and trades not FA for small market teams.


100% disagree with you and your math, please dont try to convince me, lets agree to disagree
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Re: Summer Trade Targets; Who Blows it Up? 

Post#83 » by ezzzp » Fri Apr 1, 2016 6:26 pm

Xatticus wrote:
Sure. Although the point was that Orlando doesn't really need to spend 45M this summer to reach the floor. Just retaining the restricted free agents will cut into that figure significantly.

The bigger issue is the potential lack of quality targets available in free agency. Regardless of what Hennigan does, Boston, Philadelphia, and the Lakers will have more money to spend this summer, and there will be a host of other clubs with the ability to offer a max contract to any players that Hennigan might pursue. This becomes even more problematic if a few of the more appealing players in free agency return to their current teams.

If the plan was to free up enough cash to make a big splash in free agency, Hennigan's timing is dreadful. I certainly hope he achieves something more creative than attempting to blitz a 2nd-tier free agent this summer with the lure of an over-sized contract.



I don't think the plan is necessarily to make a big splash. That's part of it, in the best case scenario section of the strategy; but in my opinion the goal is to accelerate the rebuild. Durant is a full throttle warp leap; players like Batum and Conley nudge the pace of the rebuild back on track. The cap inflation has given Rob Hennigan this option. There is of course a hierarchy in talent available - but in my opinion he will add regardless in order to meet a rebuild timeline.

This is a timeline of what I think Rob Hennigan's strategy has been, and why I think he is going to accelerate the process:


Year 1 (2012-13) and 2 (2013-14):
• accumulate talent and assets via trade and drafts
• eliminate excess payroll to create future cap flexibility
• develop youth at the expense of wins

Year 3 (2014-15): the core is primarily under 22 years of age
• accumulate talent and assets via trade and drafts
• develop youth with a balanced emphasis on trying to win games - accompanied by a moderate use of free agency to add compatible players that do both without impacting future cap flexibility

Year 4 (2015-16): the core is primarily under 23 years of age
• pivot towards competitive mindset - win games at the expense of some player development
• improve the final results via competitive accountability augmented with moderate acquisitions that impact W-L
• battle for playoff position and/or be close to .500 team

Year 5 (2016-17): key players of the core are just outside of their prime
• win games at the expense of player development
• first to second round of the playoffs and be a + .500 team

Year 6 (2017-18): most of the core enter their prime this season
• second round of the playoffs and beyond; be a + .500 team

Year 7 (2018-19): most of the core are in their early prime
• be a contender and begin the franchise's 3d run at a championship


My theory is that Rob Hennigan's strategy began to slowly fall behind in year 3. Lottery luck worked against him and the free agents did not impact development or competitive balance as well as expected. This year (4), again the Magic fell short of its goals.

Now he needs "create his own luck" and catch up to the scheduled pace; if he doesn't strike gold in free agency (Durant), he will at minimum ensure the team is competitive and able to reach year 5 goals.

In year 6 (2017-18) Rob Hennigan's contract extension ends. There is a major incentive for him to ensure the team reaches year 5 goals and that the groundwork to meet year 6 goals is in place.
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Re: Summer Trade Targets; Who Blows it Up? 

Post#84 » by Xatticus » Sat Apr 2, 2016 4:25 am

ezzzp wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
Sure. Although the point was that Orlando doesn't really need to spend 45M this summer to reach the floor. Just retaining the restricted free agents will cut into that figure significantly.

The bigger issue is the potential lack of quality targets available in free agency. Regardless of what Hennigan does, Boston, Philadelphia, and the Lakers will have more money to spend this summer, and there will be a host of other clubs with the ability to offer a max contract to any players that Hennigan might pursue. This becomes even more problematic if a few of the more appealing players in free agency return to their current teams.

If the plan was to free up enough cash to make a big splash in free agency, Hennigan's timing is dreadful. I certainly hope he achieves something more creative than attempting to blitz a 2nd-tier free agent this summer with the lure of an over-sized contract.



I don't think the plan is necessarily to make a big splash. That's part of it, in the best case scenario section of the strategy; but in my opinion the goal is to accelerate the rebuild. Durant is a full throttle warp leap; players like Batum and Conley nudge the pace of the rebuild back on track. The cap inflation has given Rob Hennigan this option. There is of course a hierarchy in talent available - but in my opinion he will add regardless in order to meet a rebuild timeline.

This is a timeline of what I think Rob Hennigan's strategy has been, and why I think he is going to accelerate the process:


Year 1 (2012-13) and 2 (2013-14):
• accumulate talent and assets via trade and drafts
• eliminate excess payroll to create future cap flexibility
• develop youth at the expense of wins

Year 3 (2014-15): the core is primarily under 22 years of age
• accumulate talent and assets via trade and drafts
• develop youth with a balanced emphasis on trying to win games - accompanied by a moderate use of free agency to add compatible players that do both without impacting future cap flexibility

Year 4 (2015-16): the core is primarily under 23 years of age
• pivot towards competitive mindset - win games at the expense of some player development
• improve the final results via competitive accountability augmented with moderate acquisitions that impact W-L
• battle for playoff position and/or be close to .500 team

Year 5 (2016-17): key players of the core are just outside of their prime
• win games at the expense of player development
• first to second round of the playoffs and be a + .500 team

Year 6 (2017-18): most of the core enter their prime this season
• second round of the playoffs and beyond; be a + .500 team

Year 7 (2018-19): most of the core are in their early prime
• be a contender and begin the franchise's 3d run at a championship


My theory is that Rob Hennigan's strategy began to slowly fall behind in year 3. Lottery luck worked against him and the free agents did not impact development or competitive balance as well as expected. This year (4), again the Magic fell short of its goals.

Now he needs "create his own luck" and catch up to the scheduled pace; if he doesn't strike gold in free agency (Durant), he will at minimum ensure the team is competitive and able to reach year 5 goals.

In year 6 (2017-18) Rob Hennigan's contract extension ends. There is a major incentive for him to ensure the team reaches year 5 goals and that the groundwork to meet year 6 goals is in place.


I'm not going to presume to know Hennigan's intentions for this upcoming summer, but given the Harris trade, he must have something planned. I like Hennigan and have since he was hired, but he no longer inspires an unerring confidence in his abilities. He has made a number of head-scratching decisions in his time here (the Harris trade being the most recent), especially in free agency. I can't speak to the veracity of particular reports from the media, but when I hear about an offer of Gordon/Vucevic for what might amount to a year of Blake Griffin, I get concerned that Hennigan's "organic" rhetoric is getting tiresome within the organization.

As for the timeline, it might echo some general form of a development through the rebuilding process, but roster construction is iterative and I believe it is better approached at the micro level. There are some fundamental economic principles that should govern every decision. I don't believe you should ever cease in the talent acquisition or developmental processes, and you should always endeavor to eliminate the waste of resources.

No player is a positive asset if they aren't worth the terms of their contract. If we are going to offer a max contract to a player whose value exceeds the limitations of their maximum salary, that is fantastic. If we are going to offer a max contract to lure a player who wouldn't otherwise receive such an offer, that is problematic. The latter is the process by which an albatross contract is created.
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Re: Summer Trade Targets; Who Blows it Up? 

Post#85 » by ezzzp » Sun Apr 3, 2016 12:20 am

Xatticus wrote:
I'm not going to presume to know Hennigan's intentions for this upcoming summer, but given the Harris trade, he must have something planned. I like Hennigan and have since he was hired, but he no longer inspires an unerring confidence in his abilities. He has made a number of head-scratching decisions in his time here (the Harris trade being the most recent), especially in free agency. I can't speak to the veracity of particular reports from the media, but when I hear about an offer of Gordon/Vucevic for what might amount to a year of Blake Griffin, I get concerned that Hennigan's "organic" rhetoric is getting tiresome within the organization.

As for the timeline, it might echo some general form of a development through the rebuilding process, but roster construction is iterative and I believe it is better approached at the micro level. There are some fundamental economic principles that should govern every decision. I don't believe you should ever cease in the talent acquisition or developmental processes, and you should always endeavor to eliminate the waste of resources.

No player is a positive asset if they aren't worth the terms of their contract. If we are going to offer a max contract to a player whose value exceeds the limitations of their maximum salary, that is fantastic. If we are going to offer a max contract to lure a player who wouldn't otherwise receive such an offer, that is problematic. The latter is the process by which an albatross contract is created.


Its certainly possible that after four years the front office is starting to get antsy. It should be common knowledge for a front office to know how long it takes to accomplish a ground up rebuild; but you never know. Even knowing, patience being scarcer would hardly be a surprise, its just human nature.

The team is no longer sacrificing wins for the acquisition of high draft picks or to give playing time to its youth. But that doesn't mean they'll stop developing their players in the offseason and practices; and it also doesn't mean they stopped trying to acquire talent. Quite the opposite.

Hennigan just sacrificed one player to give himself the opportunity to add better talent more compatible with the roster. He also purchased a D-League team and has assembled very well respected scouting team invested in analytics and international research; all part of a sustainable system to keep adding and developing talent long term.

As long as Rob Hennigan stays clear of older players (+30) or players with injury history, I don't see a problem. The money will be spent regardless. We are not talking about the Magic going into luxury tax, but rather hitting the salary cap line.

Gordon, Hezonja and Payton's contracts won't come into play until after the third year of any new contract signed this offseason.

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