The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1)

[Cuban_Linx]

Why is Curry clearly below LeBron, Jordan and Shaq at their peak ( I think you have them at +8, LeBron at 8.5?!)
Shouldn't he be equal or even better as of now?

I have peak Lebron below both Shaq (better portability due to defense) and Jordan (health; 100% vs. 95% RS), all three at +8. Don't think Curry's combination of offense and defense makes him a better player than those guys at their peaks, but his offense alone is in a different stratosphere and at worst is slightly better than current GOAT level offense (Magic 87).

Where does that fall with your peaks lists, Were the seasons of 09 LeBron/91 Jordan/00 Shaq all 8's?

00 Shaq +5.50 O | +2.50 D | +8.00
91 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.50 D | +8.00
90 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.50 D | +8.00
13 James +5.75 O | +2.25 D | +8.00
10 James +6.00 O | +2.00 D | +8.00
92 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.75 D | +7.75 << Curry fits in right after here, maybe higher after the postseason as I'll hone-in a little more
93 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.00 D | +7.50
09 James +5.50 O | +2.00 D | +7.50
89 Jordan +6.25 O | +1.25 D | +7.50
01 Shaq +5.50 O | +2.00 D | +7.50

One season per player he's looking at the #4 spot.

I'm not familiar with this metric. What is it and why are you allowed to just estimate the numbers? Is it selfmade or something?

[JordansBulls]

36-1 at home, 68-8 overall. Margin of error small now with two remaining games vs. SAS.

I hope Pops doesn't sit out any of his guys. Think SA should go for that 41-0 home record as well. But last two games at home are against GSW and OKC.

[Dr Spaceman]

Why is Curry clearly below LeBron, Jordan and Shaq at their peak ( I think you have them at +8, LeBron at 8.5?!)
Shouldn't he be equal or even better as of now?

I have peak Lebron below both Shaq (better portability due to defense) and Jordan (health; 100% vs. 95% RS), all three at +8. Don't think Curry's combination of offense and defense makes him a better player than those guys at their peaks, but his offense alone is in a different stratosphere and at worst is slightly better than current GOAT level offense (Magic 87).

Where does that fall with your peaks lists, Were the seasons of 09 LeBron/91 Jordan/00 Shaq all 8's?

00 Shaq +5.50 O | +2.50 D | +8.00
91 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.50 D | +8.00
90 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.50 D | +8.00
13 James +5.75 O | +2.25 D | +8.00
10 James +6.00 O | +2.00 D | +8.00
92 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.75 D | +7.75 << Curry fits in right after here, maybe higher after the postseason as I'll hone-in a little more
93 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.00 D | +7.50
09 James +5.50 O | +2.00 D | +7.50
89 Jordan +6.25 O | +1.25 D | +7.50
01 Shaq +5.50 O | +2.00 D | +7.50

One season per player he's looking at the #4 spot.

I'm not familiar with this metric. What is it and why are you allowed to just estimate the numbers? Is it selfmade or something?

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1197767

If it seems completely subjective, that's because it is. It's a way to apply rigor and internal consistency to your eye test, basically.

[Cuban_Linx]

I have peak Lebron below both Shaq (better portability due to defense) and Jordan (health; 100% vs. 95% RS), all three at +8. Don't think Curry's combination of offense and defense makes him a better player than those guys at their peaks, but his offense alone is in a different stratosphere and at worst is slightly better than current GOAT level offense (Magic 87).



00 Shaq +5.50 O | +2.50 D | +8.00
91 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.50 D | +8.00
90 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.50 D | +8.00
13 James +5.75 O | +2.25 D | +8.00
10 James +6.00 O | +2.00 D | +8.00
92 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.75 D | +7.75 << Curry fits in right after here, maybe higher after the postseason as I'll hone-in a little more
93 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.00 D | +7.50
09 James +5.50 O | +2.00 D | +7.50
89 Jordan +6.25 O | +1.25 D | +7.50
01 Shaq +5.50 O | +2.00 D | +7.50

One season per player he's looking at the #4 spot.

I'm not familiar with this metric. What is it and why are you allowed to just estimate the numbers? Is it selfmade or something?

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1197767

If it seems completely subjective, that's because it is. It's a way to apply rigor and internal consistency to your eye test, basically.

Thanks, that makes sense. I thought it seemed like a very rigid way to look at things for an advanced statistic, but if it's really just a way to quantify someone's eye test I don't mind.

[Heej]

What are Currys advanced stats looking like? Is he no longer having the undisputed GOAT season.

[HeartBreakKid]

What are Currys advanced stats looking like? Is he no longer having the undisputed GOAT season.

He's still leading the league in PPG and TS, so it's certainly possible he is having the goat season still, it's not like he's fallen off a rock to the point that it's going to hurt his season average.

[JulesWinnfield]

Great shooting tonight. That's number 69...

As long as they merely split with the Spurs they should definitely break this record. There are 3 gimme games on this schedule between the Wolves at home and 2 dates with Memphis (who are essentially the walking dead right now, 2-10 in their last 12 and both games against the Warriors will be on the 2nd end of a back to back for them.) It comes down to finding a way to split with San Antonio.

I'd like to see Steph get to 400 too. Be a nice round milestone to mark his year. Tonight was a big boost in that pursuit

[RSCD3_]

Well seeing how he's got 69 wins it's only appropriate that's he gonna have another kind of 69.

I'm talking of course about his plus minus which is +969 after this game

He's almost guaranteed to pass jordan (980) and the 1K mark is still in reach.

I wonder if the warriors will rest only if they get to 73 early or will they try to sneak a curry rest vs the wolves or grizzlies?

[SideshowBob]

I'm not familiar with this metric. What is it and why are you allowed to just estimate the numbers? Is it selfmade or something?

Spaceman already covered it.

Here's a few rough examples of how I try and break it down:

09-15 Lebron Season-by-season
Curry vs. Bird (scroll down a bit)
03-05 Garnett Qualitative Offense -> Quantitative Offense

[SideshowBob]

What are Currys advanced stats looking like? Is he no longer having the undisputed GOAT season.

Steph's PER is currently 31.60, #7 all time.

1. 63 Wilt 31.82
2. 62 Wilt 31.74
3. 88 MJ 31.71
4. 09 LBJ 31.67
5. 91 MJ 31.63
6. 64 Wilt 31.63
7. 16 Steph 31.60

His current BPM (+12.36) would be #4 all time.

1. 09 LBJ +12.99
2. 89 MJ +12.56
3. 10 LBJ +12.53
4. 16 Steph +12.36

Current WS/48 of 0.3185 is #7 all time.

1. 72 KAJ 0.3399
2. 71 KAJ 0.3256
3. 64 Wilt 0.3251
4. 73 KAJ 0.3225
5. 13 LBJ 0.3220
6. 91 MJ 0.3211
7. 16 Steph 0.3185

He's retaken the RPM lead over Leonard for the time being. No recent RAPM data but I'd wager Dray/Kawhi are still giving him a run for the top spot in single-year and James has been pretty rapidly on the rise lately as well.

[Cuban_Linx]

I'm not familiar with this metric. What is it and why are you allowed to just estimate the numbers? Is it selfmade or something?

Spaceman already covered it.

Here's a few rough examples of how I try and break it down:

09-15 Lebron Season-by-season
Curry vs. Bird (scroll down a bit)
03-05 Garnett Qualitative Offense -> Quantitative Offense

That's some insanely thorough analysis you got there. And just the right timing too. I've been thinking a lot lately about how utterly insane LeBron's 13 season was. For Steph to have this great a team and to start as all time hot as he started this season and still slightly trail LeBron in the advanced stats department (in ws/48 anyway) says a lot about that 2013 season.

Thanks man, I'm gonna enjoy reading that analysis about LeBron over the years.

[sixerswillrule]

Highest Offensive WS/48 still though I believe.

[SideshowBob]

Highest Offensive WS/48 still though I believe.

OWS/48

71 KAJ 0.2482
16 Steph 0.2474
72 KAJ 0.2452
13 James 0.2436
91 Jordan 0.2357

[sixerswillrule]

Ah, just shy of Kareem.

[lorak]

^
But no TOV data for KAJ, so his real numbers were probably worse.

[SideshowBob]

In/Out data for Iggy. First set is controlling for the presence of Curry/Klay/Barnes/Bogut/Dray. Second set is raw In/Out.

Iguodala IN | Control (35 G, 33-2)

+13.51 SRS, +11.2 Offense, -2.0 Defense

117.7 ORTG, 104.5 DRTG, +13.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iguodala OUT | Control (13 G, 11-2)

+5.31 SRS, +7.0 Offense, +0.8 Defense

114.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +6.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iguodala IN (60 G, 55-5)

+11.72 SRS, +8.9 Offense, -2.4 Defense

115.7 ORTG, 103.9 DRTG, +11.4 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iguodala OUT (17 G, 14-3)

+6.25 SRS, +7.6 Offense, +0.5 Defense

114.1 ORTG, 105.5 DRTG, +7.1 Adjusted Net

[studcrackers]

Welp, that was predictable:

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/241389/Joe-Lacob-Warriors-Light-Years-Ahead-Of-Every-Other-Team-In-Structure-Planning

Warrior ownership dead convinced that his team is winning because he's the smartest.

It’s not just Steph Curry. It’s architecting a team, a style of play, the way they all play together. It’s all extremely thought through.

There's no doubt that Lacob deserves some credit here, but I get so frustrated with all these billionaire owners who basically have let their previous success inflate their egos to unbearable levels.

As a guy who's had to deal with jerry jones his whole life, this just reeks of a Jerry quote during their 2nd Super Bowl run.

[RSCD3_]

In/Out data for Iggy. First set is controlling for the presence of Curry/Klay/Barnes/Bogut/Dray. Second set is raw In/Out.

Iguodala IN | Control (35 G, 33-2)

+13.51 SRS, +11.2 Offense, -2.0 Defense

117.7 ORTG, 104.5 DRTG, +13.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iguodala OUT | Control (13 G, 11-2)

+5.31 SRS, +7.0 Offense, +0.8 Defense

114.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +6.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iguodala IN (60 G, 55-5)

+11.72 SRS, +8.9 Offense, -2.4 Defense

115.7 ORTG, 103.9 DRTG, +11.4 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iguodala OUT (17 G, 14-3)

+6.25 SRS, +7.6 Offense, +0.5 Defense

114.1 ORTG, 105.5 DRTG, +7.1 Adjusted Net

Can you do an updated breakdown of their Death Star lineups later?

[SideshowBob]

In/Out data for Iggy. First set is controlling for the presence of Curry/Klay/Barnes/Bogut/Dray. Second set is raw In/Out.

Iguodala IN | Control (35 G, 33-2)

+13.51 SRS, +11.2 Offense, -2.0 Defense

117.7 ORTG, 104.5 DRTG, +13.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iguodala OUT | Control (13 G, 11-2)

+5.31 SRS, +7.0 Offense, +0.8 Defense

114.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +6.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iguodala IN (60 G, 55-5)

+11.72 SRS, +8.9 Offense, -2.4 Defense

115.7 ORTG, 103.9 DRTG, +11.4 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iguodala OUT (17 G, 14-3)

+6.25 SRS, +7.6 Offense, +0.5 Defense

114.1 ORTG, 105.5 DRTG, +7.1 Adjusted Net

Can you do an updated breakdown of their Death Star lineups later?

Yeah, but that Iggy IN Control set is pretty much the best one considering the number of games and level of play. There's probably a few smaller samples that have them in ~15 SRS range but +13.5 over 35 G with a .942 record is insane.

[therealbig3]

Wow, 0-8, including 0-5 from 3.

10 assists though, and the Warriors are still up 9. Barnes is going off.