2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. *Full 2016 RS + PS RPM & RAPM Updated 6/24*

SideshowBob · Post #201 » by **SideshowBob** » Wed Apr 6, 2016 9:19 pm

EDIT: Double Post

JE uploaded a spreadsheet with updated 2016 Single-Year NPI RAPM to compare with his new Win Probability metric. No offense/defense splits though.

Link

Draymond at +8 now with a pretty comfortable lead over the pack.

Curry/Leonard at +6.4, Lebron at +6.2.
LMA on the rise
Durant with some separation over Westbrook (+5 vs. 3.6)
Frye has popped into the top 25

More thoughts?

lorak · Post #202 » by **lorak** » Wed Apr 6, 2016 9:30 pm

Green - WOW.

And still Towns way behind Porzingis or Jokic.

Atmanne · Post #203 » by **Atmanne** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 1:21 am

RPM updated. http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

Jordan's numbers took an odd tumble. He was comfortably the top center in the last update

SideshowBob · Post #204 » by **SideshowBob** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 1:34 am

Atmanne wrote:RPM updated. http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

Jordan's numbers took an odd tumble. He was comfortably the top center in the last update

Leonard slightly ahead of Curry again. Green/Bron tied and trending upward. Paul also obviously on the rise and getting pretty close to Russ.

Rob Diaz · Post #205 » by **Rob Diaz** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 8:55 am

I find it so strange that Danny Green ranks so well in all RAPM/RPM/BPM/VORP-type numbers, this season. Last year made a lot of sense, he had a monster season and stepped up with the injuries to other key players. This year, he has forgotten how to shoot a basketball and has been an offensive disaster, yet continues to rank very well in all adjusted on/off metrics. Very puzzling IMO, despite knowing that he's a really good defensive player.

SideshowBob · Post #206 » by **SideshowBob** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:27 pm

JE posted 5-Man Unit RAPM on his twitter.

GSW death lineup in the lead at +18.8. OKC's primary lineup 2nd (+13.1), and Cleveland with Delly in place of Irving at 3rd (+12.5).

Post #207 » by **Texas Chuck** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:32 pm

SideshowBob wrote:JE posted 5-Man Unit RAPM on his twitter.

GSW death lineup in the lead at +18.8. OKC's primary lineup 2nd (+13.1), and Cleveland with Delly in place of Irving at 3rd (+12.5).

This data to me is so much more important and valuable than the individual numbers. Wish it had minutes played listed, but if we are doing +/- type stats it just makes so much more sense to look at unit numbers rather than individuals.

SideshowBob · Post #208 » by **SideshowBob** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:33 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:JE posted 5-Man Unit RAPM on his twitter.

GSW death lineup in the lead at +18.8. OKC's primary lineup 2nd (+13.1), and Cleveland with Delly in place of Irving at 3rd (+12.5).

This data to me is so much more important and valuable than the individual numbers. Wish it had minutes played listed, but if we are doing +/- type stats it just makes so much more sense to look at team numbers rather than individuals.

Definitely. Yeah I would have thought he'd list MP or poss, but at the same time, there have been thousands of 5-man units run this year and there are only 322 listed here so he's probably only displayed more significant minute ones.

SideshowBob · Post #209 » by **SideshowBob** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:37 pm

James | Love | Thompson | Smith make up 2 of the top 4 offensive units. One with Delly (+8.5) and one with Irving (+7.6). Cavs best defensive lineup is also their best offensive lineup (4 + Delly).

Dion has somehow managed to be part of the 2nd best offensive unit overall :lol:

SAS with the top defensive unit: LaMarcus | Duncan | Green | Leonard | Parker.

SideshowBob · Post #210 » by **SideshowBob** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:39 pm

GSW Death-unit's offense (+15.1) is better than any other lineup's collective differential (OKC/CLE at +13.1/+12.5 w/their best).

MisterHibachi · Post #211 » by **MisterHibachi** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:44 pm

That death lineup offensive number is nuts.

MyUniBroDavis · Post #212 » by **MyUniBroDavis** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:46 pm

Now replace Barnes with durant.

Lol

MyUniBroDavis · Post #213 » by **MyUniBroDavis** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:46 pm

Now replace Barnes with durant.

Lol

Post #214 » by **Texas Chuck** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 5:20 pm

MyUniBroDavis wrote:Now replace Barnes with durant.

Lol

Not sure how much more it can scale really. In fact it changes the dynamics a lot. I think you could make the argument it potentially is less effective despite the massive talent upgrade.

giberish · Post #215 » by **giberish** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 5:22 pm

Rob Diaz wrote:I find it so strange that Danny Green ranks so well in all RAPM/RPM/BPM/VORP-type numbers, this season. Last year made a lot of sense, he had a monster season and stepped up with the injuries to other key players. This year, he has forgotten how to shoot a basketball and has been an offensive disaster, yet continues to rank very well in all adjusted on/off metrics. Very puzzling IMO, despite knowing that he's a really good defensive player.

Shooters bring as much value in terms of how much defensive respect/attention they draw as they do with actually making shots. Teams still respect Green as a 3-point threat, so he draws help defense away form others helping the team on offense even without making shots. Add that to strong defense and he's going to rate as a valuable player.

Of course there's a limit to how much you can miss before defensive game plans are adjusted. Perhaps in the playoffs teams will look at Green's shooting this year and be more willing to help off of him.

Post #216 » by **bondom34** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 5:42 pm

Well that may be the biggest indictment on Billy Donovan yet.

Post #217 » by **Doctor MJ** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 11:15 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:JE posted 5-Man Unit RAPM on his twitter.

GSW death lineup in the lead at +18.8. OKC's primary lineup 2nd (+13.1), and Cleveland with Delly in place of Irving at 3rd (+12.5).

This data to me is so much more important and valuable than the individual numbers. Wish it had minutes played listed, but if we are doing +/- type stats it just makes so much more sense to look at unit numbers rather than individuals.

I'd say I'm inclined to agree, though were I really focused on a GM-ing type role it wouldn't really about just the 5-man lineups because you just don't get enough sample size.

What I'll admit though is that I enjoy comparing individual players and so I'm as guilty as anyone else here fixating on that front as a fan.

Post #218 » by **Doctor MJ** » Thu Apr 7, 2016 11:30 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Now replace Barnes with durant.

Lol

Not sure how much more it can scale really. In fact it changes the dynamics a lot. I think you could make the argument it potentially is less effective despite the massive talent upgrade.

Agreed. We've seen again and again that superteams top out in offensive effectiveness. If Durant were willing to just come in and do a super-Barnes thing I'm sure it would improve some, but if the Warriors re-boot their scheme focused on creating a Curry-Durant offense, it's entirely possible it would actually get worse. Not that it would be bad - it would be amazingly good of course - but the Warriors found lightning in a bottle.

I'm very, very impressed with Kerr, but I think he'd be the first to say the team has surpassed his wildest expectations.

ceiling raiser · Post #219 » by **ceiling raiser** » Fri Apr 8, 2016 12:40 am

SideshowBob wrote:Durant with some separation over Westbrook (+5 vs. 3.6)

What do you think it is that keeps holding Westbrook back in RAPM?

SideshowBob · Post #220 » by **SideshowBob** » Fri Apr 8, 2016 1:54 am

fpliii wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:Durant with some separation over Westbrook (+5 vs. 3.6)

What do you think it is that keeps holding Westbrook back in RAPM?

Can't pin it down to just one thing of course, but Brooks always had Durant play more minutes with/against bench units (think late 1st Q), whereas Russ is more often out there with/against the stronger lineups. For the most part, Donovan has not changed that.

For comparisons sake, we saw the same thing in the early Big-3 Miami years. When they weren't sharing the court, Lebron would typically play with/against bench units whereas Wade would play a greater fraction of his non-Lebron time next to Bosh (sharing the "impact") and against stronger lineups. I would at least partially credit this manner of staggering minutes for Lebron looking much stronger than Wade in +/- in 2011 as I thought they were roughly the same caliber of player that year. This seems like a more firm premise for Russ/Durant than Wade/Lebron though, given Russell is actually playing significantly less minutes (you could say that Russell plays mostly only "hard" minutes).