2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. *Full 2016 RS + PS RPM & RAPM Updated 6/24*

[bondom34]

Blows my mind that OKC has 2 top 20 lineups and 1 bottom 20 lineup, and the one that plays 4th quarter is.....the bottom 20 one.

[Doctor MJ]

Durant with some separation over Westbrook (+5 vs. 3.6)

What do you think it is that keeps holding Westbrook back in RAPM?

Can't pin it down to just one thing of course, but Brooks always had Durant play more minutes with/against bench units (think late 1st Q), whereas Russ is more often out there with/against the stronger lineups. For the most part, Donovan has not changed that.

For comparisons sake, we saw the same thing in the early Big-3 Miami years. When they weren't sharing the court, Lebron would typically play with/against bench units whereas Wade would play a greater fraction of his non-Lebron time next to Bosh (sharing the "impact") and against stronger lineups. I would at least partially credit this manner of staggering minutes for Lebron looking much stronger than Wade in +/- in 2011 as I thought they were roughly the same caliber of player that year. This seems like a more firm premise for Russ/Durant than Wade/Lebron though, given Russell is actually playing significantly less minutes (you could say that Russell plays mostly only "hard" minutes).

Has to be noted thought that the APM family of stats automatically adjusts for such degree of difficulty.

As such, if playing against tougher competition makes Westbrook look worse than he would against weaker competition with these metrics, that doesn't necessarily mean he's getting underrated by the stat. Might mean he's actually overrated by it.

I speak to Westbrook first since that's who fpliii's question was about, the allegation of playing against weaker competition than normal is actually something I've thought a lot more about because of Manu Ginobili. With Ginobili you have a guy who all through his prime put up superstar level RAPM numbers but would seem to be playing on average against weaker competition than his teammates.

It's that the real reason Pop plays Ginobili like this is that he realized Ginobili's whirling dervish style just totally wrecks weaker players and thus the most effective time to play Ginobili is against 2nd units.

An interesting question then becomes: How should we judge Ginobili for beating up a bunch of tomato cans given that his tomato-can success really has contributed quite a bit toward the Spurs' success?

I don't have a real answer there because with Ginobili it's always seemed pretty easy to slot him in below the very top tier given his limited minutes, but what if guys like LeBron & Durant actually are tomato-can guys too?

Would be cool to really see some regression data separated by competition level.

[thekdog34]

Harden has dropped so I guess it shouldn't be a surprise why the Rockets are so mediocre.

[ronnymac2]

I hate to say the same thing over and over, but I think this is important. What you're seeing with Draymond Green is a CENTER who is a credible DPOY who also shoots about 40% on a high volume of 3's, handles the ball, and playmakes to the tune of 7 assists per game. This has literally never been done before.

In basketball theory, Draymond Green is what a GM or scout or RealGM PC Board Member dreams of when trying to create the best 5-man unit imaginable.

[bondom34]

Just a thought, but could some of it be Durant's backup is so terrible? He's got Kyle Singler behind him. Before that it was Perry Jones III. Westbrook has had in the past Reggie Jackson, DJ Augustin, and Fisher.

[RSCD3_]

I hate to say the same thing over and over, but I think this is important. What you're seeing with Draymond Green is a CENTER who is a credible DPOY who also shoots about 40% on a high volume of 3's, handles the ball, and playmakes to the tune of 7 assists per game. This has literally never been done before.

In basketball theory, Draymond Green is what a GM or scout or RealGM PC Board Member dreams of when trying to create the best 5-man unit imaginable.

Well I still wouldnt call him a full time center, he's more like a PF/C IMO, but that doesnt diminish his impact IMO as a center. I do feel though if he played 30+ mpg at exclusively center his impact would fall off more on defense, although he would have more time to accumulate the offensive advantage. He's very good at playing a small ball center for the warriors for like 20-25% of his time which is around 9 minutes per game (bballref's 15% seems a little low ) but I think anything much more than that is moving past a proper balance point

[Doctor MJ]

I hate to say the same thing over and over, but I think this is important. What you're seeing with Draymond Green is a CENTER who is a credible DPOY who also shoots about 40% on a high volume of 3's, handles the ball, and playmakes to the tune of 7 assists per game. This has literally never been done before.

In basketball theory, Draymond Green is what a GM or scout or RealGM PC Board Member dreams of when trying to create the best 5-man unit imaginable.

Wow. Well said.

When you put it like that it makes me think of Scottie Pippen on steroids.

[SideshowBob]

Just a thought, but could some of it be Durant's backup is so terrible? He's got Kyle Singler behind him. Before that it was Perry Jones III. Westbrook has had in the past Reggie Jackson, DJ Augustin, and Fisher.

Nah, same problem as what Doc pointed out with my point, in that the regression should overcome this issue.

[bondom34]

Just a thought, but could some of it be Durant's backup is so terrible? He's got Kyle Singler behind him. Before that it was Perry Jones III. Westbrook has had in the past Reggie Jackson, DJ Augustin, and Fisher.

Nah, same problem as what Doc pointed out with my point, in that the regression should overcome this issue.

Wasn't this part of why Collison's numbers were so high though? I remember hearing it called "the Perkins effect" where he replaced Perk and that gave his numbers a bump. I have to see if I can find the article.

[RSCD3_]

I hate to say the same thing over and over, but I think this is important. What you're seeing with Draymond Green is a CENTER who is a credible DPOY who also shoots about 40% on a high volume of 3's, handles the ball, and playmakes to the tune of 7 assists per game. This has literally never been done before.

In basketball theory, Draymond Green is what a GM or scout or RealGM PC Board Member dreams of when trying to create the best 5-man unit imaginable.

Wow. Well said.

When you put it like that it makes me think of Scottie Pippen on steroids.

A better defending magic johnson with threes

( Well his passing isnt that good and his scoring game is a lot less dangerous )

But I get shades of that other Michigan State Spartan when I see draymond sometimes.

How much more can he grow if he can be this effective with such a rudimentary scoring game, If he manages to improve to any kind of threat in different ways it's not out of the question, that he could be farther ahead impact wise for most teams than 86 bird

[SideshowBob]

Just a thought, but could some of it be Durant's backup is so terrible? He's got Kyle Singler behind him. Before that it was Perry Jones III. Westbrook has had in the past Reggie Jackson, DJ Augustin, and Fisher.

Nah, same problem as what Doc pointed out with my point, in that the regression should overcome this issue.

Wasn't this part of why Collison's numbers were so high though? I remember hearing it called "the Perkins effect" where he replaced Perk and that gave his numbers a bump. I have to see if I can find the article.

The replacement thing? That's usually something that can show up as striking in net On/Off numbers rather than the regression models. RAPM isn't technically looking directly at players' backups.

[bondom34]

Nah, same problem as what Doc pointed out with my point, in that the regression should overcome this issue.

Wasn't this part of why Collison's numbers were so high though? I remember hearing it called "the Perkins effect" where he replaced Perk and that gave his numbers a bump. I have to see if I can find the article.

The replacement thing? That's usually something that can show up as striking in net On/Off numbers rather than the regression models. RAPM isn't technically looking directly at players' backups.

Ah, got it. Could be a prior thing as well, be interesting if he's ahead in NPI too.

[SideshowBob]

Ah, got it. Could be a prior thing as well, be interesting if he's ahead in NPI too.

Mhm. Actually this is NPI (so I wouldn't make much of any of it outside of broad strokes), I'd wager he looks slightly stronger in the multi-year (JE doesn't do prior-informed anymore at all) once we get a full season dataset.

[bondom34]

Ah, got it. Could be a prior thing as well, be interesting if he's ahead in NPI too.

Mhm. Actually this is NPI (so I wouldn't make much of any of it outside of broad strokes), I'd wager he looks slightly stronger in the multi-year (JE doesn't do prior-informed anymore at all) once we get a full season dataset.

In that case . I'm out of ideas!

[SideshowBob]

Ah, got it. Could be a prior thing as well, be interesting if he's ahead in NPI too.

Mhm. Actually this is NPI (so I wouldn't make much of any of it outside of broad strokes), I'd wager he looks slightly stronger in the multi-year (JE doesn't do prior-informed anymore at all) once we get a full season dataset.

In that case . I'm out of ideas!

Not a huge issue IMO. He looked pretty strong in the M-Y 14 and 15 (+4.5-8) sets but just alright in the 1-Y sets (+2.7-9ish). It might just be a simple case of 1-Y having a multicollinearity issue with shared minutes between Westbrook and players other than Durant (given they got a decent amount time apart last season), example being Roberson coming out higher than Russ in the 2015 1-year set.

[bondom34]

May look into it, but would be interested in biggest risers/fallers too. Terrence Jones gotta be one.

[bondom34]

Also, Enes Kanter, not awful .

[MyUniBroDavis]

Now replace Barnes with durant.

Lol

Not sure how much more it can scale really. In fact it changes the dynamics a lot. I think you could make the argument it potentially is less effective despite the massive talent upgrade.

Agreed. We've seen again and again that superteams top out in offensive effectiveness. If Durant were willing to just come in and do a super-Barnes thing I'm sure it would improve some, but if the Warriors re-boot their scheme focused on creating a Curry-Durant offense, it's entirely possible it would actually get worse. Not that it would be bad - it would be amazingly good of course - but the Warriors found lightning in a bottle.

I'm very, very impressed with Kerr, but I think he'd be the first to say the team has surpassed his wildest expectations.

I mean, I get what you guys are saying, but I think we all know that Kerr probably wouldn't turn it into the big two show.

Sorry if this is repeating the obvious, but I think most of us know how this lineup works.

Off the fast break, draymond dribbles the ball and the wings sprint to the perimeter/cut to the basket for the open 3/layup. While this seems simple, they have probably the best cast to do this. We don't need to mention that all 5 of them are 3 point threats, but draymond is a very athletic forward who has incredible vision and solid ball handling. around New Years, 60 of his 254 assists according to bball reference were in transition, where he had a 37.7% assist rate.

Looking at play type stats (I can't see team stats)

While draymond scores a pitiful 0.88ppp in transition, no other warrior is below the 55th percentile.

Only 3 warriors are below the 70th percentile.

And green is only ranked bad because his turnover percentage is huh, for obvious reasons.

The warriors are 10th in ppp overall in transition. However, they also have the 4th most possessions as well, and they absolutely dwarf most of those ahead of them in pure PPP (which is important since more possessions usually means less efficiency, imo, and the ppp difference is marginal at best)(and transition is the 2nd most efficient play other than cutting). Durant obviously would help this, as he is nearly as efficient in transition as lebron. (He has the power through-ish option as well which would help a bit)




Beyond that, in the half court, ignoring the fact that curry can just go lol at times, a big part of their offense is green facilitating from the post. Since all 5 players on the court are 35%+ 3 point shooters, with all 4 of the other players, including curry being willing and able to screen each other and move off ball trying to get an open shot. Now, add in the ridiculous defensive attention curry gets, + the ridiculous but less ridiculous attention Thompson gets, and there's definitely a dilemma. Since curry is one of the literal "idc if I score" stars (well not literal but u know what u mean) (and yes, I realize curry not shooting as much isn't a good thing at all, but I think that his efficiency would rise, as crazy as that sounds, and his overall scoring wouldn't go down too much. Meanwhile, Durant efficiency would probably take a sizable leap as well since his **** will be more open. Now he takes a higher percentage of contested threes than curry, though obviously curry's threes are harder since they are pull-up 300 footers. I think that adding durant would basically make it, well, unfair, since he gets more defensive attention from Thompson while being a different kind of threat off ball as well. (Not as much attention as curry, but still a lot of attention) meanwhile, he is a better shooter than Barnes, yes I know the percentages are similar but Durant shots are much, much more contested from deep. Also, statistically the most accurate way to score a 3 point shot in terms of how ou relieve a pass is a pass from the post.Beyond that, green is good at finding cutters in the post. Durant would be the best cutter on that team.

And while the main problem is that Durant might take away shots from curry, here is my opinion on that. Curry has shown that if he is open, he will take it most of the time, especially after last time he passed up a wide open shot Thompson decided not to catch it, While Durant will take a few shots away from curry with him, well, shooting, curry will also get more shots with him being more open because of more gravity away from him.

Offensively I think they improve, but the question is how much can they, I mean, they are shooting in the high 60s in TS iirc.



It's crazy that Durant going to the Warriors is even a possibility. While I completely understand the super team idea not working half the time, and I agree with it, I feel like considering how low ego both of the "stars" on this team are/would be I feel like they would be able to make it work, especially Kerr, who would probably be my second pick for a "superteam" out of active coaches.


Sorry if this is off-topic/obvious/stupid.

[RSCD3_]

If this is just 2016 it's definitely due to SSS but

Dellavedova/Smith/James/Love/Thompson = 12.5 RAPM +8.5/+4.0 (3rd best overall)

Irving/Smith/James/Love/Mozgov = -5.4 RAPM -3.9/-1.5 (8th worst overall)

[lorak]

Just a thought, but could some of it be Durant's backup is so terrible? He's got Kyle Singler behind him. Before that it was Perry Jones III. Westbrook has had in the past Reggie Jackson, DJ Augustin, and Fisher.

Nah, same problem as what Doc pointed out with my point, in that the regression should overcome this issue.

Wasn't this part of why Collison's numbers were so high though? I remember hearing it called "the Perkins effect" where he replaced Perk and that gave his numbers a bump. I have to see if I can find the article.

At first I thought what SideshowBob said, but I looked into the data and you might be onto something: (Collinson's rank in NPI RAPM among all players)

Code: Select all

YEAR   RANK   
2005   106   
2006   75   
2007   139   
2008   269   
2009   318   
2010   10   
2011   4   Perkins 17G
2012   32   Perkins 65G
2013   11   Perkins 78G
2014   15   Perkins 62G
2015   108   Perkins 51G
2016   189   


So on one hand Collinson did good or even very good before Parkins arrived, but on the other he was the most consistent year by year with Perk on the team. I'm not sure what to think about it, maybe it's just coincidence or other factors (for example Durant's development in 2010)? Were they even substituting each other?