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The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1)

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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1621 » by RSCD3_ » Wed Apr 6, 2016 4:36 pm

Last ten games of his falling back to earth

26.5/5.9/7.7 on 59.7 TS%, AST% = 33.4 and TOV = 15.6% with 112/102 Splits

Also after the 24 win streak, where the warriors have only been on 68 win pace since then...

28.8/5.5/6.9 on 65.9 TS%, AST% = 34.6 and TOV = 12.6% with 123/104 splits

+/- is now at +973, 4 games left and all he needs is +1.75 per game or +2.33 if he rests one game, 1K is +7.25 or +9 away
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1622 » by G35 » Wed Apr 6, 2016 5:27 pm

pelican piranha wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:Well the GB after comsidering the cavs a lost cause 2 weeks ago, is now saying saying the same old curry is only better at shooting at handling and lebron is easily better than him. Oh how 2 weeks can flip narratives on their head.



Never said Curry is better than Lebron. Lebron is still the best player in the league. Curry has had a better season, but LBJ clearly coasts at this point. It'd be ignorant for him to go full force in the regular season w all the minutes he's logged. Playoffs we will see the truth just like last year.



This is where I have a problem with impact on a team. Why are people so intently focused on peak years and ignore years when players do not go all the way out in order to conserve energy and then assume it was a down year? If I had to compare Lebron to Kobe, these are Lebron's 2nd go around as a contender, 2008-2011 years where Kobe conserved energy, didn't play defense as hard but could turn it on when the moment called for it. But Kobe was hammered for playing lazy defense, and was not really as good as advertised. This is the same thing with Lebron, he doesn't care about RS stats, he wants titles. Players as good as Lebron do not (or should not) have to prove their value once they've already proven how good they are on the court. The playoffs are where we should judge these players at this stage of their career. Curry does have things to prove, he's new to being an elite player, as are the rest of the Warriors. They are going all out and it reflects statistically, but imo, it doesn't mean they are automatically better, you still have to prove your value/ranking in the playoffs.......
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1623 » by SideshowBob » Wed Apr 6, 2016 6:33 pm

RSCD3_ wrote:Last ten games of his falling back to earth

26.5/5.9/7.7 on 59.7 TS%, AST% = 33.4 and TOV = 15.6% with 112/102 Splits

Also after the 24 win streak, where the warriors have only been on 68 win pace since then...

28.8/5.5/6.9 on 65.9 TS%, AST% = 34.6 and TOV = 12.6% with 123/104 splits

+/- is now at +973, 4 games left and all he needs is +1.75 per game or +2.33 if he rests one game, 1K is +7.25 or +9 away


SideshowBob wrote:This one's looking less likely by the second. 69-9 with 4 games remaining, 2 vs. Memphis, 2 vs. SAS. 73-9 could happen I suppose but they'd have to play with laser focus. 72-10 seems like a decent bet, but it wouldn't surprise me if San Antonio took both games either.

GSW will not be able to tie the 40-1 home record of the 86 Celtics either (though SAS is going for 41-0) and are now going to be 45-9 after the 24-0 start. They've put up an 8.7 SRS in those 54 games.


SideshowBob wrote:GSW SRS in 2015 was +10.01 and 2016 after tonight should be about +10.20 despite a slightly higher pace. Their Pythagorean win count is going to be similar or identical to last season (65-17), and the difference in actual wins is explainable by their dominance in close games (as colts pointed out two pages back) which has seen some normalizing results in the last few games.

Notably they've been less healthy this season than last season. Curry/Dray/Klay/Iggy/Barnes all played at least 77 G last year and Bogut played 67. This year Iggy/Barnes in particular missed significant time.

All that said, I've seen nothing over the course of the season that would suggest to me that I should believe they're better than San Antonio. I think maxed out/healthy 16 Warriors > 15 Warriors, but I think 2016 SAS is a slightly stronger GOAT contender - missed time across the board, less top heavy/broader rotation, more consistent level of play despite missed time, seemingly higher level of play by SRS despite lower pace, greater experience across the roster, Popp vs. Kerr, etc.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1624 » by primecougar » Wed Apr 6, 2016 7:27 pm

Having a super deep bench doesn't matter that much in the playoffs because starters usually play a lot.

Gsw should be the clear fav vs the Spurs.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1625 » by emphi54 » Wed Apr 6, 2016 7:50 pm

RSCD3_ wrote:Last ten games of his falling back to earth

26.5/5.9/7.7 on 59.7 TS%, AST% = 33.4 and TOV = 15.6% with 112/102 Splits

Also after the 24 win streak, where the warriors have only been on 68 win pace since then...

28.8/5.5/6.9 on 65.9 TS%, AST% = 34.6 and TOV = 12.6% with 123/104 splits

+/- is now at +973, 4 games left and all he needs is +1.75 per game or +2.33 if he rests one game, 1K is +7.25 or +9 away


What's their record since Pop switched to the switching defense?
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1626 » by RSCD3_ » Wed Apr 6, 2016 8:03 pm

emphi54 wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:Last ten games of his falling back to earth

26.5/5.9/7.7 on 59.7 TS%, AST% = 33.4 and TOV = 15.6% with 112/102 Splits

Also after the 24 win streak, where the warriors have only been on 68 win pace since then...

28.8/5.5/6.9 on 65.9 TS%, AST% = 34.6 and TOV = 12.6% with 123/104 splits

+/- is now at +973, 4 games left and all he needs is +1.75 per game or +2.33 if he rests one game, 1K is +7.25 or +9 away


What's their record since Pop switched to the switching defense?


7-3 with their SRS being 6.52 Including that game.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1627 » by RSCD3_ » Fri Apr 8, 2016 6:21 am

27 Points on 67.9 TS% and 9 assists with only 3 turnovers

Average good looking game for him until you realize it's against a -7.8 Defense

Also liked how he leveraged his drives more instead of not taking what the defense wanted

Ironically that is the reverse of what happened to James in 2013.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1628 » by therealbig3 » Fri Apr 8, 2016 8:14 am

SideshowBob wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:Last ten games of his falling back to earth

26.5/5.9/7.7 on 59.7 TS%, AST% = 33.4 and TOV = 15.6% with 112/102 Splits

Also after the 24 win streak, where the warriors have only been on 68 win pace since then...

28.8/5.5/6.9 on 65.9 TS%, AST% = 34.6 and TOV = 12.6% with 123/104 splits

+/- is now at +973, 4 games left and all he needs is +1.75 per game or +2.33 if he rests one game, 1K is +7.25 or +9 away


SideshowBob wrote:This one's looking less likely by the second. 69-9 with 4 games remaining, 2 vs. Memphis, 2 vs. SAS. 73-9 could happen I suppose but they'd have to play with laser focus. 72-10 seems like a decent bet, but it wouldn't surprise me if San Antonio took both games either.

GSW will not be able to tie the 40-1 home record of the 86 Celtics either (though SAS is going for 41-0) and are now going to be 45-9 after the 24-0 start. They've put up an 8.7 SRS in those 54 games.


SideshowBob wrote:GSW SRS in 2015 was +10.01 and 2016 after tonight should be about +10.20 despite a slightly higher pace. Their Pythagorean win count is going to be similar or identical to last season (65-17), and the difference in actual wins is explainable by their dominance in close games (as colts pointed out two pages back) which has seen some normalizing results in the last few games.

Notably they've been less healthy this season than last season. Curry/Dray/Klay/Iggy/Barnes all played at least 77 G last year and Bogut played 67. This year Iggy/Barnes in particular missed significant time.

All that said, I've seen nothing over the course of the season that would suggest to me that I should believe they're better than San Antonio. I think maxed out/healthy 16 Warriors > 15 Warriors, but I think 2016 SAS is a slightly stronger GOAT contender - missed time across the board, less top heavy/broader rotation, more consistent level of play despite missed time, seemingly higher level of play by SRS despite lower pace, greater experience across the roster, Popp vs. Kerr, etc.


Once you look at the Warriors top lineups vs the Spurs top lineups, there's a very clear difference in favor of the Warriors. Spurs are comparable overall because of their bench, which isn't as much of a factor in the playoffs when the Warriors would play their top lineups for more minutes.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1629 » by therealbig3 » Fri Apr 8, 2016 8:21 am

Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut (517 minutes): +13.7

Curry-Thompson-Rush-Green-Bogut (253 minutes): +15.6

Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Barnes-Green (155 minutes): +46.6


Parker-Green-Leonard-Aldridge-Duncan (673 minutes): +9.7

Parker-Green-Leonard-West-Aldridge (171 minutes): +4.6

Parker-Ginobili-Leonard-Aldridge-Duncan (121 minutes): +16.9


Not including this past game.

On average, that comes out to +9.7/100 possessions for the top 3 Spurs lineups, and +19.7/100 possessions for the top 3 Warriors lineups.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1630 » by The-Power » Fri Apr 8, 2016 10:22 am

Warriors' statements regarding rest and the record:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Rusty_SFChron/status/718307866755612672[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/GSWFastBreak/status/718311678031564800[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/GSWFastBreak/status/718311907116064768[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/GSWFastBreak/status/718312030017613824[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/GSWFastBreak/status/718312403193237504[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/GSWFastBreak/status/718314354819641344[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/GSWFastBreak/status/718316431935434752[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/TimBontemps/status/718315979546181634[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/TimBontemps/status/718316156210307072[/tweet]

My guess: Steph, Klay and Dray are going to play the remaining 3 games unless they lose the next game to Memphis or the following game against the Spurs, in which case it depends whether they want to tie the record or not, and Kerr is not going to stop them. Both Green and Curry made sure that nobody on the team feels pressured to play because of the chase, though. You could interpret Curry's first comment as a sign that he will rest a game or two but the last two prove he wants to play and his comments were more meant to reduce the pressure on his teammates rather than him wanting to get rest himself.

With this in mind and assuming Curry plays the last three games, let's look at the following tweet.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RichardYannow/status/718308152073199616[/tweet]

Want to play? My bets: no, no (50/50), yes (60/40), yes, yes, no
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1631 » by Dr Spaceman » Fri Apr 8, 2016 10:55 am

therealbig3 wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:Last ten games of his falling back to earth

26.5/5.9/7.7 on 59.7 TS%, AST% = 33.4 and TOV = 15.6% with 112/102 Splits

Also after the 24 win streak, where the warriors have only been on 68 win pace since then...

28.8/5.5/6.9 on 65.9 TS%, AST% = 34.6 and TOV = 12.6% with 123/104 splits

+/- is now at +973, 4 games left and all he needs is +1.75 per game or +2.33 if he rests one game, 1K is +7.25 or +9 away


SideshowBob wrote:This one's looking less likely by the second. 69-9 with 4 games remaining, 2 vs. Memphis, 2 vs. SAS. 73-9 could happen I suppose but they'd have to play with laser focus. 72-10 seems like a decent bet, but it wouldn't surprise me if San Antonio took both games either.

GSW will not be able to tie the 40-1 home record of the 86 Celtics either (though SAS is going for 41-0) and are now going to be 45-9 after the 24-0 start. They've put up an 8.7 SRS in those 54 games.


SideshowBob wrote:GSW SRS in 2015 was +10.01 and 2016 after tonight should be about +10.20 despite a slightly higher pace. Their Pythagorean win count is going to be similar or identical to last season (65-17), and the difference in actual wins is explainable by their dominance in close games (as colts pointed out two pages back) which has seen some normalizing results in the last few games.

Notably they've been less healthy this season than last season. Curry/Dray/Klay/Iggy/Barnes all played at least 77 G last year and Bogut played 67. This year Iggy/Barnes in particular missed significant time.

All that said, I've seen nothing over the course of the season that would suggest to me that I should believe they're better than San Antonio. I think maxed out/healthy 16 Warriors > 15 Warriors, but I think 2016 SAS is a slightly stronger GOAT contender - missed time across the board, less top heavy/broader rotation, more consistent level of play despite missed time, seemingly higher level of play by SRS despite lower pace, greater experience across the roster, Popp vs. Kerr, etc.


Once you look at the Warriors top lineups vs the Spurs top lineups, there's a very clear difference in favor of the Warriors. Spurs are comparable overall because of their bench, which isn't as much of a factor in the playoffs when the Warriors would play their top lineups for more minutes.


I've been saying all season I don't think this is how people should look at this. If anything, Ginobili and Diaw are going to see MORE minutes come playoff time. The Spurs don't have 5 starters and 4 bench guys. They have 8 rotation players. Pop has shown no hesitation about playing Diaw in the 36+ range in previous seasons, and he'll likely be the starter vs. the Warriors. Same goes for Manu.

The guys who are actually going to see minutes cut are guys like Anderson and Boban. But the Diaws, Mills, Ginobilis and Wests of the world are still going to play, and lineup combinations are basically what Pop is GOAT at. These guys are just more tools in the box.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1632 » by therealbig3 » Fri Apr 8, 2016 11:16 am

But the Warriors top lineups crush the Spurs top lineups. Even when the Spurs are putting out their best players, the Warriors are simply better...by a lot.

Diaw might play more, but I don't think he's enough to offset that difference.

Also keep in mind that Curry and Green aren't playing huge minutes right now. I can easily see both of them playing around 40 mpg during the playoffs. And Iguodala is certainly going to see more playing time, he's basically their Manu Ginobili.

I'm excited to see GS's small ball lineup in the playoffs, and how often Kerr will go to it. IMO, that's going to be the ace up his sleeve that he'll use whenever the going gets tough.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1633 » by Dr Spaceman » Fri Apr 8, 2016 2:12 pm

Fair enough. But Kawhi right now plays 32 MPG and Duncan is a hair under 25. So it's not like the Spurs won't see a similar improvement.

Look I agree the Warriors are the better team. But if they have the two best lineups, the Spurs have the next 8 best (I think they actually have that many over +10 net) and that's not nothing.I don't think it's inconceivable that the Spurs have better players at spots 3-8 in the rotation.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1634 » by Alphabet » Fri Apr 8, 2016 2:44 pm

The-Power wrote:With this in mind and assuming Curry plays the last three games, let's look at the following tweet.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RichardYannow/status/718308152073199616[/tweet]

Want to play? My bets: no, no (50/50), yes (60/40), yes, yes, no


Seems like all of the players are really split on this whole record thing. If I were them I'd go for it.

I pretty much agree with your predictions too.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1635 » by Krodis » Fri Apr 8, 2016 2:54 pm

The issue is not that the Spurs will be worse in an absolute sense in the playoffs. It's that they'll be replacing very good lineup minutes with great ones, while the Warriors will be replacing mediocre ones with all time great ones.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1636 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Apr 8, 2016 3:30 pm

Krodis wrote:The issue is not that the Spurs will be worse in an absolute sense in the playoffs. It's that they'll be replacing very good lineup minutes with great ones, while the Warriors will be replacing mediocre ones with all time great ones.


yeah but those all-time great numbers certainly didn't all come against a focused and dialed in Spurs team night after night.

Styles make fights. Some teams just struggle against certain other teams for whatever reason. 2 years ago when the Spurs blew out a bunch of really good teams to win the title, they barely got by Dallas with Dirk playing horribly. 67 win Dallas lost to the We Believe Warriors.

I think the Warriors have the edge because they have the better team and they've proven they can beat the Spurs. But I'm not going to be the one who rules out San Antonio based on some lineup data with only so much relevance. Too much respect for what those guys have done for so long.

Plus the Spurs are far better protected against possible injury. Only player they really can't replace is Kawhi. GSW suffers a lot more if any of Curry, Green, Klay, Iggy, or Bogut can't go.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1637 » by SideshowBob » Fri Apr 8, 2016 3:32 pm

therealbig3 wrote:Once you look at the Warriors top lineups vs the Spurs top lineups, there's a very clear difference in favor of the Warriors. Spurs are comparable overall because of their bench, which isn't as much of a factor in the playoffs when the Warriors would play their top lineups for more minutes.


Spaceman pretty much covered the gist of my response. I'll add that I when rotations tighten we'll see a slight diminishing returns effect on the super high-end lineups (as well as the fact that opponents can hone-in on how to stop/slow particular lineups better in the playoffs when they play repeated games and are game-planning over 1.5 weeks for a single team at a time). Whereas Pop doesn't really have to cut his rotations at all and IMO has a larger and more dynamic tool-box to play with (though admittedly against this GSW that could be effectively meaningless).

That said from a broad perspective Krodis's point right above me frames the situation pretty solidly as well, so points taken.

therealbig3 wrote:


Dr Spaceman wrote:


Have you guys seen this yet? Thread
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1638 » by MyUniBroDavis » Fri Apr 8, 2016 3:55 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:Once you look at the Warriors top lineups vs the Spurs top lineups, there's a very clear difference in favor of the Warriors. Spurs are comparable overall because of their bench, which isn't as much of a factor in the playoffs when the Warriors would play their top lineups for more minutes.


Spaceman pretty much covered the gist of my response. I'll add that I when rotations tighten we'll see a slight diminishing returns effect on the super high-end lineups (as well as the fact that opponents can hone-in on how to stop/slow particular lineups better in the playoffs when they play repeated games and are game-planning over 1.5 weeks for a single team at a time). Whereas Pop doesn't really have to cut his rotations at all and IMO has a larger and more dynamic tool-box to play with (though admittedly against this GSW that could be effectively meaningless).

That said from a broad perspective Krodis's point right above me frames the situation pretty solidly as well, so points taken.

therealbig3 wrote:


Dr Spaceman wrote:


Have you guys seen this yet? Thread



This might be a bit off topic, but do you think that it's significant/there are reasons (other than injuries) why the "death lineup" hasn't been used against the cavs, and the Spurs?

It was used for 5 minutes against the Spurs in all encounters combined (obviously Iguodala didn't play in the second one)
Wasn't used against Cleveland


It definitely wasn't bad when it was used, in that small sample size the net rating was 19.5, but despite the lower than usual net rating they still shot around 78% TS so I think they might have just turned it over a bit

To compare

It was the second most used lineup against the thunder, and they had a net rating of 45 against okc and 67.5 against the clippers.

Do you think that it will be used much more in the playoffs? (I mean like, rivalling how much the starting lineup plays?)
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1639 » by JulesWinnfield » Fri Apr 8, 2016 4:15 pm

On paper Sunday is the most appealing regular season game of all time to me. I don't say that lightly. I have given it some thought.... One team trying to keep the chase for 73 alive (and they likely get it if they win), the other trying to stay unbeaten at home and become the first team to ever do that. History colliding. Pop better not pull any nonsense with rest. He will have earned my undying hatred forever
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1640 » by JordansBulls » Fri Apr 8, 2016 4:54 pm

JulesWinnfield wrote:On paper Sunday is the most appealing regular season game of all time to me. I don't say that lightly. I have given it some thought.... One team trying to keep the chase for 73 alive (and they likely get it if they win), the other trying to stay unbeaten at home and become the first team to ever do that. History colliding. Pop better not pull any nonsense with rest. He will have earned my undying hatred forever

Totally agree with this, not to mention has the chance to stop GSW from getting the record and also securing there own of going undefeated at home.
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