Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
Sam Hinkie, another "Process" a/k/a "Tanker" GM of the Sixers, is out. How much time does Hennigan have left? Yes, Philly is currently worse than Orlando, but are they really that much worse over the next few years? The Sixers arguably have better assets going forward than the Magic, especially if Embiid comes back healthy next season. And even though they tanked more blatantly than Orlando, their record wasn't that much worse over the past 3 years.
Tanking will always appeal to some, but it just doesn't work enough to justify the negative impact it has on your young players' psyches, your fans' morale, your gate receipts, etc.
Oklahoma City tanked and got lucky, and unfortunately our young GM came from there and views that as a "blueprint."
Golden State is the most dominant team in the NBA with Curry (#7 pick), Thompson (#11 pick), and Green (second rounder).
Cleveland leads the East because they got LeBron back. When they were stock-piling top-5 picks (Irving, Waiters, Thompson, Bennett) they were terrible and didn't improve.
Toronto is second in the East with a killer back-court of DeRozan (#9 pick) and Lowry (#24 pick).
Miami has been good since they drafted Wade, and lost Shaq (stayed good) and LeBron (stayed good). Never tanked.
Charlotte is a solid playoff team with its best player Kemba Walker (#9 pick).
Boston is rebuilding on the fly and one of the top teams in the East. Hard to even pinpoint what it is they're doing right, but they're doing a lot right.
San Antonio got Duncan with a #1 pick but added him to a team that already had a #1 pick (Robinson) who was injured that year, so they weren't really a bad team getting a #1 pick.
The flawed assumption of tanking is that you have to be horrible -- hit rock-bottom -- and gut the team to get picks that will transform your team. But, a) you don't always get the top picks even when tanking (see Magic); b) even when you get the top picks they aren't always the best picks; and c) the best players often come from all over the top 10.
If we play the game of "what should Hennigan have done," we're only speculating as to outcomes. But we can at least ask "what if?" What if he would have kept Ryan Anderson and J.J. Redick? There was this irrational fear of winning too many games and hurting our lottery odds, but would the Magic have been that good if they kept Anderson and Redick? They wouldn't have won that many more games, but they would've been more watchable and a little more competitive while still earning a lottery pick. And, more importantly, when they started adding those lottery picks over the next few years, they would've added them to a better foundation, of a team that was trying to compete instead of trying to lose. Hennigan let Anderson walk and a few years later signed a lesser version of him in Channing Frye. He traded Redick for Tobias Harris. Tobias is now helping the Pistons make the playoffs, and Redick is helping the Clippers be one of the best teams in the West.
Hinkie's departure could just be because Hinkie went overboard and alienated people along the way. But in a way it's also a referendum on tanking. Fans and ownership will buy "process" and "organic growth" for a few years, but their patience has a limit. The odds are incredibly low that you can intentionally make a team horrible and then build it up to a successful playoff team within a reasonable amount of time. It depends upon OKC luck, Durant and Westbrook falling into your lap.
So Hennigan has had 4 drafts, 4 top 10 picks in the past 3 drafts, a major superstar to trade for assets right out of the box in Dwight Howard, and 4 free-agency periods within which to sign players. At the end of Year 4 the team is 12 games below .500 and 8.5 games out of a playoff spot with 4 games left. I think he'll get another year -- but I don't believe this is the win trajectory that he sold ownership on when they hired him.
Tanking will always appeal to some, but it just doesn't work enough to justify the negative impact it has on your young players' psyches, your fans' morale, your gate receipts, etc.
Oklahoma City tanked and got lucky, and unfortunately our young GM came from there and views that as a "blueprint."
Golden State is the most dominant team in the NBA with Curry (#7 pick), Thompson (#11 pick), and Green (second rounder).
Cleveland leads the East because they got LeBron back. When they were stock-piling top-5 picks (Irving, Waiters, Thompson, Bennett) they were terrible and didn't improve.
Toronto is second in the East with a killer back-court of DeRozan (#9 pick) and Lowry (#24 pick).
Miami has been good since they drafted Wade, and lost Shaq (stayed good) and LeBron (stayed good). Never tanked.
Charlotte is a solid playoff team with its best player Kemba Walker (#9 pick).
Boston is rebuilding on the fly and one of the top teams in the East. Hard to even pinpoint what it is they're doing right, but they're doing a lot right.
San Antonio got Duncan with a #1 pick but added him to a team that already had a #1 pick (Robinson) who was injured that year, so they weren't really a bad team getting a #1 pick.
The flawed assumption of tanking is that you have to be horrible -- hit rock-bottom -- and gut the team to get picks that will transform your team. But, a) you don't always get the top picks even when tanking (see Magic); b) even when you get the top picks they aren't always the best picks; and c) the best players often come from all over the top 10.
If we play the game of "what should Hennigan have done," we're only speculating as to outcomes. But we can at least ask "what if?" What if he would have kept Ryan Anderson and J.J. Redick? There was this irrational fear of winning too many games and hurting our lottery odds, but would the Magic have been that good if they kept Anderson and Redick? They wouldn't have won that many more games, but they would've been more watchable and a little more competitive while still earning a lottery pick. And, more importantly, when they started adding those lottery picks over the next few years, they would've added them to a better foundation, of a team that was trying to compete instead of trying to lose. Hennigan let Anderson walk and a few years later signed a lesser version of him in Channing Frye. He traded Redick for Tobias Harris. Tobias is now helping the Pistons make the playoffs, and Redick is helping the Clippers be one of the best teams in the West.
Hinkie's departure could just be because Hinkie went overboard and alienated people along the way. But in a way it's also a referendum on tanking. Fans and ownership will buy "process" and "organic growth" for a few years, but their patience has a limit. The odds are incredibly low that you can intentionally make a team horrible and then build it up to a successful playoff team within a reasonable amount of time. It depends upon OKC luck, Durant and Westbrook falling into your lap.
So Hennigan has had 4 drafts, 4 top 10 picks in the past 3 drafts, a major superstar to trade for assets right out of the box in Dwight Howard, and 4 free-agency periods within which to sign players. At the end of Year 4 the team is 12 games below .500 and 8.5 games out of a playoff spot with 4 games left. I think he'll get another year -- but I don't believe this is the win trajectory that he sold ownership on when they hired him.
Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
You've got to look at what Hennigan has done with his transactions AND trades during this time frame.
He won the Dwight Howard trade where the Magic Obtain Nikola Vucevic (All-Star Caliber big IMO) and Aaron Afflalo (Who turned into Evan Fournier) (The Sixers (Traded for Elfrid Payton) and Lakers Picks as well). Then the Sixers got a disinterested and consistently injured Andrew Bynum who didn't even touch the floor the Sixers. Denver got an Andre Iguodala who a year after left and went to Golden State, and Dwight Howard went to the Lakers where eventually left a year later.
He flipped JJ (Who was expiring and was going to leave regardless) for Tobias Harris who ended up being a decent player for the Magic while he was here.
He drafted Victor Oladipo (Who honestly at the time seemed to have the most potential) in a draft where the other quality players weren't even lottery picks. (Giannis and McCollum)
Drafted Aaron Gordon and Eflrid Payton who were obviously the BPA's after the top 3 picks and clearly are now.
Drafted Hezonja who looks like he'll be a really good player in a few years.
The only thing I feel like was a bad move was the trade of Tobias Harris for pretty much sub-par players. And even then he didn't technically lose that trade as the team has accumulated enough cap space to sign better talent and veteran players who would compliment the core roster (Eying Batum IMO).
Hennigan has done a hell of a job for the most part as to what he's been given.
What Hinkie did was God awful... He kept trading away young talent in hopes of getting a superstar instead of building an actually team. The organization is starting at mediocrity for another half decade (at the least) seeing what he's done to that franchise. Hennigan is seriously 1-2 guys away and a couple of years of experience before this team blossoms into a powerhouse in the Conference. The fans have to have more restraint and patience.
He won the Dwight Howard trade where the Magic Obtain Nikola Vucevic (All-Star Caliber big IMO) and Aaron Afflalo (Who turned into Evan Fournier) (The Sixers (Traded for Elfrid Payton) and Lakers Picks as well). Then the Sixers got a disinterested and consistently injured Andrew Bynum who didn't even touch the floor the Sixers. Denver got an Andre Iguodala who a year after left and went to Golden State, and Dwight Howard went to the Lakers where eventually left a year later.
He flipped JJ (Who was expiring and was going to leave regardless) for Tobias Harris who ended up being a decent player for the Magic while he was here.
He drafted Victor Oladipo (Who honestly at the time seemed to have the most potential) in a draft where the other quality players weren't even lottery picks. (Giannis and McCollum)
Drafted Aaron Gordon and Eflrid Payton who were obviously the BPA's after the top 3 picks and clearly are now.
Drafted Hezonja who looks like he'll be a really good player in a few years.
The only thing I feel like was a bad move was the trade of Tobias Harris for pretty much sub-par players. And even then he didn't technically lose that trade as the team has accumulated enough cap space to sign better talent and veteran players who would compliment the core roster (Eying Batum IMO).
Hennigan has done a hell of a job for the most part as to what he's been given.
What Hinkie did was God awful... He kept trading away young talent in hopes of getting a superstar instead of building an actually team. The organization is starting at mediocrity for another half decade (at the least) seeing what he's done to that franchise. Hennigan is seriously 1-2 guys away and a couple of years of experience before this team blossoms into a powerhouse in the Conference. The fans have to have more restraint and patience.
Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
It was only a matter of time before this came about...it's a worthwhile discussion. This might be rambling, but I have some thoughts.
I still think Hennigan has done as good a job as he could have with the hand dealt at the time. You're correct in that you don't have to hit rock bottom to rebuild. There's no wrong or right way to do it, so long as you exhaust your avenues for improvement, which I think he has done so far. However, your post does highlight the extreme importance of the draft in building a team. The best teams are still built through the draft in one way or another. I think the thought process behind tanking is to land the franchise-caliber player, which is still a prerequisite to winning a championship, which should still be the ultimate goal. I had a post a few weeks ago in which I showed that the probability of landing that player is higher the higher your draft pick is. So while it's possible to land Curry at #7 (granted this was a loaded draft), you're best bets are at the top of the draft. You maximize your options at the top of the draft and increase your margin of error as well. And the draft is still the most economical way to acquire talent; it's a process that most teams actually control and you can get really good contributors on some of the cheapest contracts in the league and also have the rights to retain them. So acquiring 4-5 young players with potential on rookie deals has been a welcome change from drafting Daniel Orton, Fran Vazquez, and Justin Harper and signing Glen Davis to $16 mill/4 years or Chris Duhon to $8 mill/4 years. Or trading for Gilbert Arenas on a mamoth contract that I think my overpriced beer is still covering.
Minus the Tobias Harris trade (which I despise and still have vast doubts that Hennigan was behind this), I haven't had too much issue with Hennigan's moves. The hardest part of rebuilding is acquiring that superstar talent. And having gone through 4 years of this, I'm almost convinced that luck and timing is as important as anything in getting that. Hennigan just hasn't had the opportunity to nab Wiggins, Towns, or Porzingis. But the Wolves were in the right place and right time when their superstar player demanded a trade and they got lucky in the 2015 draft as well. OKC had 3 straight years of luck with 3 straight really good drafts. Despite a weak 2013 and average 2014 draft, Hennigan has maximized the value of our draft picks. Hell, I actually felt somewhat proud and bad for Hennigan after reading that Woj piece about how Hennigan was the first guy to see the star power in Kristaps Porzingis. It's great that we have someone who actually does his due diligence and has an eye for talent, but the luck to bear the fruits of his labor just hasn't been there.
The other problem is these guys coming in are 19, 20, 21 years-old. They're basically Villanova, so to expect them all to come in and dominate is just unrealistic. They can likely get there in 2-3 years. Hennigan's tenure will ultimately be judged by how good these cast of players turn out down the road. It's unfortunate that we haven't found that superstar talent in the draft (I think AG will be there in due time) to help propel the team, but I wouldn't have changed the strategy there.
The biggest difference between Hennigan and Hinkie is that Hennigan continued to actually build a team. The Sixers drafted 3 straight centers simply based on their value as "assets" instead of making a coherent team. And Hennigan actually got players who were going to play and develop during the 3-4 year rebuild. So while the Sixers are still 3 years away from being 3 years away, I think the Magic are actually a lot closer to turning a corner than we may see on the floor. I think you're right that this is probably taking a couple years longer than Hennigan thought it would, especially since missing on that franchise players 3 straight years in the draft. It's way easier to build when you have Anthony Davis or Damian Lillard already on the team. I'm pretty optimistic that one of these guys will grow into that role in time, but again, it's about being more patient than initially hoped for. Hence, why I think Skiles was hired as a coach and Harris was traded to create cap space to add veterans to add more wins. Both moves are out of accordance with the "organic" mantra from Hennigan, but seem more like moves dictated by a higher power mandating wins. I'm fine with this so long as it doesn't come at the risk of killing player development or building a economical sustainable basketball team.
I sort of touched on it above, but Hennigan has maintained flexibility for this team to continue to improve instead of signing a lot of average vets to multi-year deals, which is a welcome change, and emphasized maximizing the opportunities in the most efficient and effective way of acquiring talent via the draft. He's killed trades for the most part (Fournier for Afflalo, Vucevic + Harkless + Afflalo + Payton for Dwight, JJ in a contract year for Tobias). He came in preaching internal growth and sustainability, which is something the Magic have not had. He's a forward-thinking GM who employs analytics, hires excellent scouts, and has sought to use new tools in sports science to get an edge on the competition. I appreciate those facets as a fan.
I'm also under the impression the last 2 years were NOT supposed to be tanking seasons. Last year eventually became one, which is fine given how far out of the playoff race they were. And this year was supposed to be a push toward the playoffs. An 8-10 game improvement without any major personnel moves is nothing to sneeze at. That's a solid improvement and you have to credit Skiles and the internal growth of players. And it's apparent that they're still seeking to win these games; everyone who is healthy is still playing. There were games over the last 4 years when the tanking was way more explicit. I imagine the tanking was meant to only be for 2 seasons, with an improvement in year 3. Here we are in year 4 and I think it's fair to assume there is some pressure on Hennigan, fair or not.
What I hate is when people call for Hennigan's head simply for not getting this team to the playoffs yet. It just lacks so much nuance and reason. If you're going to call for him to be fired, actually try to think about how you would have gone about the last 4 years differently and ask yourself if that sets up for better long term success.
I still think Hennigan has done as good a job as he could have with the hand dealt at the time. You're correct in that you don't have to hit rock bottom to rebuild. There's no wrong or right way to do it, so long as you exhaust your avenues for improvement, which I think he has done so far. However, your post does highlight the extreme importance of the draft in building a team. The best teams are still built through the draft in one way or another. I think the thought process behind tanking is to land the franchise-caliber player, which is still a prerequisite to winning a championship, which should still be the ultimate goal. I had a post a few weeks ago in which I showed that the probability of landing that player is higher the higher your draft pick is. So while it's possible to land Curry at #7 (granted this was a loaded draft), you're best bets are at the top of the draft. You maximize your options at the top of the draft and increase your margin of error as well. And the draft is still the most economical way to acquire talent; it's a process that most teams actually control and you can get really good contributors on some of the cheapest contracts in the league and also have the rights to retain them. So acquiring 4-5 young players with potential on rookie deals has been a welcome change from drafting Daniel Orton, Fran Vazquez, and Justin Harper and signing Glen Davis to $16 mill/4 years or Chris Duhon to $8 mill/4 years. Or trading for Gilbert Arenas on a mamoth contract that I think my overpriced beer is still covering.
Minus the Tobias Harris trade (which I despise and still have vast doubts that Hennigan was behind this), I haven't had too much issue with Hennigan's moves. The hardest part of rebuilding is acquiring that superstar talent. And having gone through 4 years of this, I'm almost convinced that luck and timing is as important as anything in getting that. Hennigan just hasn't had the opportunity to nab Wiggins, Towns, or Porzingis. But the Wolves were in the right place and right time when their superstar player demanded a trade and they got lucky in the 2015 draft as well. OKC had 3 straight years of luck with 3 straight really good drafts. Despite a weak 2013 and average 2014 draft, Hennigan has maximized the value of our draft picks. Hell, I actually felt somewhat proud and bad for Hennigan after reading that Woj piece about how Hennigan was the first guy to see the star power in Kristaps Porzingis. It's great that we have someone who actually does his due diligence and has an eye for talent, but the luck to bear the fruits of his labor just hasn't been there.
The other problem is these guys coming in are 19, 20, 21 years-old. They're basically Villanova, so to expect them all to come in and dominate is just unrealistic. They can likely get there in 2-3 years. Hennigan's tenure will ultimately be judged by how good these cast of players turn out down the road. It's unfortunate that we haven't found that superstar talent in the draft (I think AG will be there in due time) to help propel the team, but I wouldn't have changed the strategy there.
The biggest difference between Hennigan and Hinkie is that Hennigan continued to actually build a team. The Sixers drafted 3 straight centers simply based on their value as "assets" instead of making a coherent team. And Hennigan actually got players who were going to play and develop during the 3-4 year rebuild. So while the Sixers are still 3 years away from being 3 years away, I think the Magic are actually a lot closer to turning a corner than we may see on the floor. I think you're right that this is probably taking a couple years longer than Hennigan thought it would, especially since missing on that franchise players 3 straight years in the draft. It's way easier to build when you have Anthony Davis or Damian Lillard already on the team. I'm pretty optimistic that one of these guys will grow into that role in time, but again, it's about being more patient than initially hoped for. Hence, why I think Skiles was hired as a coach and Harris was traded to create cap space to add veterans to add more wins. Both moves are out of accordance with the "organic" mantra from Hennigan, but seem more like moves dictated by a higher power mandating wins. I'm fine with this so long as it doesn't come at the risk of killing player development or building a economical sustainable basketball team.
I sort of touched on it above, but Hennigan has maintained flexibility for this team to continue to improve instead of signing a lot of average vets to multi-year deals, which is a welcome change, and emphasized maximizing the opportunities in the most efficient and effective way of acquiring talent via the draft. He's killed trades for the most part (Fournier for Afflalo, Vucevic + Harkless + Afflalo + Payton for Dwight, JJ in a contract year for Tobias). He came in preaching internal growth and sustainability, which is something the Magic have not had. He's a forward-thinking GM who employs analytics, hires excellent scouts, and has sought to use new tools in sports science to get an edge on the competition. I appreciate those facets as a fan.
I'm also under the impression the last 2 years were NOT supposed to be tanking seasons. Last year eventually became one, which is fine given how far out of the playoff race they were. And this year was supposed to be a push toward the playoffs. An 8-10 game improvement without any major personnel moves is nothing to sneeze at. That's a solid improvement and you have to credit Skiles and the internal growth of players. And it's apparent that they're still seeking to win these games; everyone who is healthy is still playing. There were games over the last 4 years when the tanking was way more explicit. I imagine the tanking was meant to only be for 2 seasons, with an improvement in year 3. Here we are in year 4 and I think it's fair to assume there is some pressure on Hennigan, fair or not.
What I hate is when people call for Hennigan's head simply for not getting this team to the playoffs yet. It just lacks so much nuance and reason. If you're going to call for him to be fired, actually try to think about how you would have gone about the last 4 years differently and ask yourself if that sets up for better long term success.
Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
We have 33 wins. They have 10. They haven't even hit 30 wins in the last 2 seasons combined.
Henny is safe.
Henny is safe.

Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
Magic_Kingdom wrote:Sam Hinkie, another "Process" a/k/a "Tanker" GM of the Sixers, is out. How much time does Hennigan have left? Yes, Philly is currently worse than Orlando, but are they really that much worse over the next few years? The Sixers arguably have better assets going forward than the Magic, especially if Embiid comes back healthy next season. And even though they tanked more blatantly than Orlando, their record wasn't that much worse over the past 3 years.
Tanking will always appeal to some, but it just doesn't work enough to justify the negative impact it has on your young players' psyches, your fans' morale, your gate receipts, etc.
Good post. I don't necessarily agree with you but this is a good way to approach the topic. This thread was inevitable after Hinkie "resigned".
First, I don't see how the Sixers have better assets than us. I think we have MUCH better talent and potential. Expecting Embiid to be healthy is a pretty big leap of faith.
Oklahoma City tanked and got lucky, and unfortunately our young GM came from there and views that as a "blueprint."
The only lucky part of OKC's build was Durant. The got the #1 pick at the right time. The rest was great work by the front office. Let's forget Durant, Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka...which is A LOT to forget...look at some of there other picks. They still killed it.
2010: Eric Bledsoe
2011: Reggie Jackson
2013: Steven Adams
As for Henny, the only player (as of now) that we can really say we missed out on is Giannis...and he is just not breaking through. His ability to judge prospects seems pretty solid in comparison to OKC...there just haven't been players of the Harden/Wesbtrook caliber there to take.
Golden State is the most dominant team in the NBA with Curry (#7 pick), Thompson (#11 pick), and Green (second rounder).
Another situation where an elite player just isn't available. The Warriors would still be a very solid team without him but they don't win the West. When we miss on a player like that, then we can hold it against Henny. We have young guys that have the potential to be as good as Green or Thompson...but you have to give credit to the Warriors for drafting well after grabbing their stud. You also have to include Harrison Barnes & Festus Ezili in the mix.
Cleveland leads the East because they got LeBron back. When they were stock-piling top-5 picks (Irving, Waiters, Thompson, Bennett) they were terrible and didn't improve.
Cleveland just drafted poorly. They'd be very competitive in the East for many years if they had drafted properly, even without LeBron. Hennigan gets credit in this area because if you redraft his drafts, we are basically right where we are now. If you redraft for Cleveland, it is ugly.
PG Kyrie Irving
SG Klay Thomspon / Victor Oladipo
SF Chandler Parsons
PF Draymond Green (Cleveland had the 2 picks right before he was picked)
C Andre Drummond /Rudy Gobert / Festus Ezili
Clearly things would have been different, in regards to what pick they would have had those years. I'm just posting that to show the large number of missed opportunities. If they could have had anything resembling a core based around Irving, Thompson, Green, and Drummond...I think they are better than they are now with LeBron.
Toronto is second in the East with a killer back-court of DeRozan (#9 pick) and Lowry (#24 pick).
Toronto is an interesting study because they are playing great ball but haven't drafted very well. Lowry was a FA addition. They are an example of a team that improved more via FA than the draft. We are no longer in play to get a top pick. With that in consideration, we may end up being a team that takes a similar approach. I don't think we can rely on the draft for key building blocks...we have to use it as a way to fill holes, at this point. This summer will be very telling.
Miami has been good since they drafted Wade, and lost Shaq (stayed good) and LeBron (stayed good). Never tanked.
Pat Riley. End of story.
Charlotte is a solid playoff team with its best player Kemba Walker (#9 pick).
Horrible ran franchise, IMO. Yeah, they are a low seed in the East with Walker as their "best player" but how long did it take? How many bad picks and poorly spent cash did it take?
Boston is rebuilding on the fly and one of the top teams in the East. Hard to even pinpoint what it is they're doing right, but they're doing a lot right.
Coaching. Amazing coach.
San Antonio got Duncan with a #1 pick but added him to a team that already had a #1 pick (Robinson) who was injured that year, so they weren't really a bad team getting a #1 pick.
You can't replicate SA because you can't replicate Pop or the culture they've created. You can try...and maybe you do some good...but no one can replicate what SA has done in terms of drafting, development, and execution of a system. THE best ran franchise in sports.
The flawed assumption of tanking is that you have to be horrible -- hit rock-bottom -- and gut the team to get picks that will transform your team. But, a) you don't always get the top picks even when tanking (see Magic); b) even when you get the top picks they aren't always the best picks; and c) the best players often come from all over the top 10.
While this is true on the surface...like I have said, the players have to be there and they just haven't.
If we play the game of "what should Hennigan have done," we're only speculating as to outcomes. But we can at least ask "what if?" What if he would have kept Ryan Anderson and J.J. Redick? There was this irrational fear of winning too many games and hurting our lottery odds, but would the Magic have been that good if they kept Anderson and Redick? They wouldn't have won that many more games, but they would've been more watchable and a little more competitive while still earning a lottery pick.
Both Anderson and Redick went on to situations where they had they had the ability to make more of an impact than they did here in Orlando. Both played well and showed they were legit but neither blew anyone away. I think it is fair to say that we are in a better position now than we would have been had we kept those two. Maybe we would have gone a little harder in FA to build around those two but even then...I don't see it equating to more than a 2nd round exit. We don't want that. If we really wanted to do things differently to that degree...the hope would have been that Henny could have convinced Dwight to stay. Those two guys were built to play with Dwight and a pass first PG.
And, more importantly, when they started adding those lottery picks over the next few years, they would've added them to a better foundation, of a team that was trying to compete instead of trying to lose. Hennigan let Anderson walk and a few years later signed a lesser version of him in Channing Frye. He traded Redick for Tobias Harris. Tobias is now helping the Pistons make the playoffs, and Redick is helping the Clippers be one of the best teams in the West.
I think all this shows is that none of these guys were meant for our long term plans because they weren't pieces to build around. We don't want to build around role players, we are hoping to build around cornerstones. We are still hoping AG, Mario, Dipo, or Elf can be those.
Hinkie's departure could just be because Hinkie went overboard and alienated people along the way. But in a way it's also a referendum on tanking. Fans and ownership will buy "process" and "organic growth" for a few years, but their patience has a limit. The odds are incredibly low that you can intentionally make a team horrible and then build it up to a successful playoff team within a reasonable amount of time. It depends upon OKC luck, Durant and Westbrook falling into your lap.
So Hennigan has had 4 drafts, 4 top 10 picks in the past 3 drafts, a major superstar to trade for assets right out of the box in Dwight Howard, and 4 free-agency periods within which to sign players. At the end of Year 4 the team is 12 games below .500 and 8.5 games out of a playoff spot with 4 games left. I think he'll get another year -- but I don't believe this is the win trajectory that he sold ownership on when they hired him.
It all comes back to my overall point that the players just haven't been there. I also think you shouldn't compare Henny to Hinkie because Henny seems to have direction.

Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
Like as stated above we've made incremental improvement every year. Whether or not management is down with that improvement I don't know but I think we've done pretty good. Just like HInkie we were bad in the worst draft years (MCW draft) and unlucky in the generational talent years (2015) however, we shaped our roster the win. I believe Hennigan's next step is 9th to playoffs next year and if we fall short of those goals then he is considered for the chopping block. As for my take on his job I trust him while he hasn't gotten pieces to fit it seems he's looking for that star before then.
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
- OrlandO
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
Hinkie is out because all he could do was constantly tear down his team and tank... he did not even try to build a team at all. Just kept obsessing over the center position and filled the rest of the team with d-leaguers. And it showed as their record just got worse with every season.
Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
Im in no position to vouch for henny s job, but hinkie and him had completely different approaches to building teams.
you put the label organic to hinkie as well but he never once uttered the word and nothing he ever done on that team is organic. henny's approach was put together a group of young guys and exemplery vets where they can grow and develop together. hinkie just collected assets, 2 of the 3 best players on thar team already know they ll be traded cause all of them plays the same position. all other players know they mean nothing. this guy did not know how to handle people and treated them like stocks.
you put the label organic to hinkie as well but he never once uttered the word and nothing he ever done on that team is organic. henny's approach was put together a group of young guys and exemplery vets where they can grow and develop together. hinkie just collected assets, 2 of the 3 best players on thar team already know they ll be traded cause all of them plays the same position. all other players know they mean nothing. this guy did not know how to handle people and treated them like stocks.
Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
- drsd
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
Is Hennigan on the Clock?
No.
Every year Orlando has improved from the year before. There is a path towards future improvement. GM Hennigan and Coach Skiles are safe for next year.
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
- j_n
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
If you compare the Magic rebuild with other teams were doing fine in terms of improvement and young talent, this team looks like its only a year away from making the playoffs with still plenty of room to grow for the young guys, a lot of cap space and a potential high lottery pick from the Lakers, a lot depends on this offseason and how our cap space will be used but so far Hennigan has positioned this franchise for many years of being a playoff team and possibly a contender if things fall our way in free agency.
Hinkie has done an OK job imo, he made some mistakes but overall did a good job in terms of collecting assets, I thought more highly of him before this season but he shouldnt have taken another step back this year, he should have signed some vets on 1 year deals to help the young guys and keep the team competitive, instead he chose to bring in some d leaguers that could potentialy become NBA level players.
I red somewhere that he wanted to take Porzingis but the ownership forced his hand and took Okafor so you cant really blame him for the last draft but the Saric pick was a poor one imo, Payton would have made the Sixers a lot more competitive and help their bigs develop, instead he got that protected first(seems more likely to be 2 seconds) that he wont even get to use.
Ultimatelty his downfall was not seeing the (idiotic) backlash from the media and overestimating pepole's patience, he basically ran the Sixers like an NBA2K franchise only in real life you dont get to simiulate seasons, 3 years is a long time to watch your team without caring if they win or lose, he also didnt value veteran leadership and the importance of putting your young guys in competitive situations to help them grow.
Hinkie has done an OK job imo, he made some mistakes but overall did a good job in terms of collecting assets, I thought more highly of him before this season but he shouldnt have taken another step back this year, he should have signed some vets on 1 year deals to help the young guys and keep the team competitive, instead he chose to bring in some d leaguers that could potentialy become NBA level players.
I red somewhere that he wanted to take Porzingis but the ownership forced his hand and took Okafor so you cant really blame him for the last draft but the Saric pick was a poor one imo, Payton would have made the Sixers a lot more competitive and help their bigs develop, instead he got that protected first(seems more likely to be 2 seconds) that he wont even get to use.
Ultimatelty his downfall was not seeing the (idiotic) backlash from the media and overestimating pepole's patience, he basically ran the Sixers like an NBA2K franchise only in real life you dont get to simiulate seasons, 3 years is a long time to watch your team without caring if they win or lose, he also didnt value veteran leadership and the importance of putting your young guys in competitive situations to help them grow.
Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
- Blue_and_Whte
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
Henningan's blueprint isn't to "Get lucky". That has to be one of the worst and laziest analysis I've ever seen of his work. Sam Hinkie isn't a good GM, all he did was obsess over assets, traded away 2 young PG's and drafting a bunch of centers. He's horrible. His "rebuilding" efforts lack any type of reasoning. There is no correlation with Sam Hinkie's "resigning and Henningan's time remaining in Orlando. We're better than the Sixers in every aspect.
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
j_n wrote:If you compare the Magic rebuild with other teams were doing fine in terms of improvement and young talent, this team looks like its only a year away from making the playoffs with still plenty of room to grow for the young guys, a lot of cap space and a potential high lottery pick from the Lakers, a lot depends on this offseason and how our cap space will be used but so far Hennigan has positioned this franchise for many years of being a playoff team and possibly a contender if things fall our way in free agency.
Hinkie has done an OK job imo, he made some mistakes but overall did a good job in terms of collecting assets, I thought more highly of him before this season but he shouldnt have taken another step back this year, he should have signed some vets on 1 year deals to help the young guys and keep the team competitive, instead he chose to bring in some d leaguers that could potentialy become NBA level players.
I red somewhere that he wanted to take Porzingis but the ownership forced his hand and took Okafor so you cant really blame him for the last draft but the Saric pick was a poor one imo, Payton would have made the Sixers a lot more competitive and help their bigs develop, instead he got that protected first(seems more likely to be 2 seconds) that he wont even get to use.
Ultimatelty his downfall was not seeing the (idiotic) backlash from the media and overestimating pepole's patience, he basically ran the Sixers like an NBA2K franchise only in real life you dont get to simiulate seasons, 3 years is a long time to watch your team without caring if they win or lose, he also didnt value veteran leadership and the importance of putting your young guys in competitive situations to help them grow.
They had Holiday and MCW and traded them BOTH away. I don't know if its management or Hinkie but someone had a hard on for centers.
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
- BadMofoPimp
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
OP is wrong. The premise in tanking is the GM being unable to build a team by smart drafting, slick trading and strong free agent signing abilities. Basically, the GM is praying to the basketball gods that he will win a Superstar level talent which in turn will lead the team to Victories and make him look good.

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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
I dont see Hennigan being under the gun unless the team is still stuck in a season or two.
Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
Def Swami wrote:The biggest difference between Hennigan and Hinkie is that Hennigan continued to actually build a team.
i agree with everything you said except for this. Hennigan hasnt tried to build a team, he has collected assets, the best assets he could and that were available, but that is what he has done. The team still has too many holes (drafting supposed defensive players that cant shoot, not enough post defense). Maybe he fixes the holes this summer, maybe not. But to me, he hasnt built a team so much as just get the best players he can at draft picks available
Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
- LBPTarHeel27
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
tiderulz wrote:Def Swami wrote:The biggest difference between Hennigan and Hinkie is that Hennigan continued to actually build a team.
i agree with everything you said except for this. Hennigan hasnt tried to build a team, he has collected assets, the best assets he could and that were available, but that is what he has done. The team still has too many holes (drafting supposed defensive players that cant shoot, not enough post defense). Maybe he fixes the holes this summer, maybe not. But to me, he hasnt built a team so much as just get the best players he can at draft picks available
I definitely think he has tried to build. He went out and got Frye, hoping he'd help bring the same level of development to our young guys as he did in Phx. Last summer, he tried to spend big and bring in Millsap, it just didn't work out. CJ Watson was another vet addition that was supposed to bring more to the table than he has. He has done more than just draft BPA...unfortunately his FA moves haven't been as spot on as his drafts.

Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
Blue_and_Whte wrote:They had Holiday and MCW and traded them BOTH away. I don't know if its management or Hinkie but someone had a hard on for centers.
They traded Vuc away as well and are deciding between Okafor or Noel as their next trade victim. It isn't just them collecting big men. They are trading away anything that proves to not be a superstar in hope of acquiring more high draft picks to increase their odds of landing a superstar.
Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
MagicFan101 wrote:Blue_and_Whte wrote:They had Holiday and MCW and traded them BOTH away. I don't know if its management or Hinkie but someone had a hard on for centers.
They traded Vuc away as well and are deciding between Okafor or Noel as their next trade victim. It isn't just them collecting big men. They are trading away anything that proves to not be a superstar in hope of acquiring more high draft picks to increase their odds of landing a superstar.
Well its a horrible plan. IMO you have to build a foundation first THEN try and land a superstar.
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
- tiderulz
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
BadMofoPimp wrote:OP is wrong. The premise in tanking is the GM being unable to build a team by smart drafting, slick trading and strong free agent signing abilities. Basically, the GM is praying to the basketball gods that he will win a Superstar level talent which in turn will lead the team to Victories and make him look good.
SA tanked. granted, they only tanked for one season, but they put the tank on big time. Every team has done it at one point or another, whether the players and/or coach knew it or not.
Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
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Re: Hinkie Gone -- Is Hennigan on the Clock?
LBPTarHeel27 wrote:tiderulz wrote:Def Swami wrote:The biggest difference between Hennigan and Hinkie is that Hennigan continued to actually build a team.
i agree with everything you said except for this. Hennigan hasnt tried to build a team, he has collected assets, the best assets he could and that were available, but that is what he has done. The team still has too many holes (drafting supposed defensive players that cant shoot, not enough post defense). Maybe he fixes the holes this summer, maybe not. But to me, he hasnt built a team so much as just get the best players he can at draft picks available
I definitely think he has tried to build. He went out and got Frye, hoping he'd help bring the same level of development to our young guys as he did in Phx. Last summer, he tried to spend big and bring in Millsap, it just didn't work out. CJ Watson was another vet addition that was supposed to bring more to the table than he has. He has done more than just draft BPA...unfortunately his FA moves haven't been as spot on as his drafts.
but even then I think conceptually they were good ideas. Of course Im holding out on judging the Watson signing due to his injury. But historically he's been a good player so we'll see how it all unfolds. I think he absolutely has tried to build a team imo.
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