machu46 wrote:CluelessJackson wrote:machu46 wrote:I've been sick the last few days, so I haven't been keeping up with thread, so I'm just going through and responding to a bunch of posts now...
In Wisconsin? If you look at the polls here: http://www.270towin.com/2016-democratic-nomination/wisconsin-primary
There was never a moment where he was down even close to 20%. From the moment he entered his name into the ring, he was only down by 12%, and that was with almost a quarter of voters going with neither. Hillary consistently polled at about 44% and she ended up with 43%. She basically hit exactly what she was projected to do from the get-go and hit exactly what her target was based on 538's path to the nomination (which Bernie also hit spot on, though considering he's already off pace, his target should have been higher).
1. If Bernie is still losing the popular vote, the pledged delegate count, and also loses Puerto Rico, California, New Jersey, and DC down the stretch (all of which are very likely), he'll have a hard time arguing for momentum. In all likelihood, if momentum actually exists, he's going to win New York, Pennsylvania, and cruise to the nomination. If it doesn't exist and he's simply hit a stretch of states that favor him (much like the case was with Hillary just before this recent run), he'll lose New York, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and the race will be over. For all intents and purposes, momentum will lead him to the delegate win in which case the superdelegates will most likely give him the nomination. If he's losing in terms of pledged delegates, superdelegates will not be swayed by a false narrative of momentum.
2. I think I read that by the end of the primary season, based on current projections, Bernie will have won more "red" states and Hillary will have won more "blue" states, but honestly, I'm not sure why Hillary winning red states is perceived as a bad thing. The blue states will stay blue regardless of who wins the nomination, but polls regarding the GOP voters suggest that if Trump is the nominee, states like Utah and Texas are within grasp for the Democrats. There's basically no risk of losing a blue state, but the possibility of flipping a red state or winning all of the swing states should be seen as a good thing.
3. I think this one is the one reasonable argument he'll have if he's losing the popular vote and delegate count as you said. I can't imagine that will be enough though, especially given the counter-argument that this is only the case because the GOP prefers facing Bernie and are therefore don't hate him as much as Hillary yet. And honestly, I think the Democrats believe they have the presidential election basically in the bag even if they were to nominate the "lesser" candidate like Bernie will try to argue that Hillary is. Current projections show her winning the electoral count by near record amounts, and I'm sure they believe Hillary will fight for down-ballot candidates more than Bernie will.
Moreover, I don't think Bernie's recent attacks on Hillary, Obama, and the Democratic party as a whole will play well to the superdelegates.
Quinnipiac has tended to be biased towards Bernie, but that is indeed interesting. The fact that Hillary remains above 50% is obviously troublesome though. For the most part, the gains that Bernie has made hasn't been from converting Hillary supporters. If you look at the polls, Hillary's numbers have basically stagnated throughout the primary season. She doesn't really gain or lose support; Bernie just picks up the undecideds. In Pennsylvania, he'll actually need to convert some of the Hillary supporters, but this poll suggests he may have actually succeeded in that to a degree. It's hard to say for sure though because it's been so long since Quinnipiac's most recent PA poll; Hillary picked up an additional 14% from their last PA poll, but I believe it was back when Biden was still "in the race". New York will really make or break Bernie though. A win there and he has legitimate claims to momentum, and a win there probably propels him to wins in PA and the other big states that he needs. A loss basically ends all mathematical hope.
i do think he has to win ny or pull dead even to show he has the mo. i said before today i thot he could win PA and i still think that. if he wins PA and goes even or better in NY then that would be enuff to crush objections against him being viable as the dem nominee and then he should be able to take away fence sitters from hilary the rest of the way. i said he has a shot and i was right. it is not over yet
I agree. Honestly, I think if he wins New York and PA, he will be the nominee when it's all said and done. I just don't expect him to win either.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
basically but the other remaining x factor is the fbi. basically the fbi has the power to decide if sanders is the next president or not even if he loses ny. it is a strange thing but really the fbi controls the fate of the presidency now unless sanders can simply win the nomination on his own
At people voting for someone just because they hate them less than the other candidate. With about 320 million people in the US you'd think they'd be able to scrounge up 2 better (potential) candidates for president? Have we had 2 potentially less qualified and less liked (potential) presidential candidates than Trump and Clinton? I mean most of his own party hates Trump don't they? What is this world coming to? First the Knicks, now the presidential candidacy?
