'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[NinjaSheppard]

I think a big part of Curry not being as dominant as he was early in the season is Draymond Green..

He went from being a 42 percent three point shooter before the All Star break to a 31 percent three point shooter over the last 27 games. At 42 percent the Warriors are unguardable and at 31 percent you can leave him open which gives you a lot more liberty when it comes to scheming vs Curry.

[lorak]

Defenses figuring it out makes more sense, as does it taking considerable time for that to happen - he's pretty unprecedented. Plus we didn't get to observe Pop experimenting in a series last season, I want to wait and see what he comes up with and then how that could shape defenses next season (we've seen playoff schemes affect strategy in following seasons; think prototyping).

I strongly disagree. It's not like Curry started to playing that way this year. He is taking almost 8 3PA per game since '13. Defenses had plenty of time to figure out how to defend him and in worst case they would have done it at the beginning of current season after Curry's MVP campaign. But they didn't, so it's very unlikely some drastic adjustments were done in mid season across all teams in the NBA. I mean, what exactly teams like Lakers, Jazz, Mavs, Spurs, Wolves and 76ers (all Curry's games below 60 TS% since March) did defensively differently than in first half of the season? Regression to the mean looks like more likely explanation.

Well in SA they were blitzing him really high, like a few feet off half court and switching everything w/him involved and then forcing him to drive into the bigs. Seemed to work.

But general point taken. So you think he was just on a hot streak earlier in the season and he's cooled off a bit?

Yes, he was hot in February and cooled off in March:

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G      2P%      3P%    TS%    USG%     MONTH
03   0,697   0,486   0,760   34,8   October
16   0,567   0,438   0,670   33,0   November
11   0,574   0,447   0,668   30,8   December
16   0,545   0,460   0,670   31,6   January
10   0,564   0,536   0,716   35,4   February
16   0,556   0,403   0,619   31,8   March
04   0,444   0,500   0,650   31,7   April


[Doctor MJ]

I've had a hard time judging Curry because he's basically sui generis. I'm a little more comfortable now, but it's still a tricky thing for me to gauge and I'm waiting for the postseason (and perhaps next season) to really refine my opinion.

I'll quantify where I am to help make it clearer: Last year I thought he was around a +5.5 offensive player, obviously super portable. This would place him squarely in my top-10 offensive peaks of all-time. I could see an argument for slightly lower or slightly higher. This year, his increase in scoring efficiency alone is worth about +2 points mathematically. I think he's also warping the floor slightly more than last year because team are so hyper-sensitive to him at this point and he's better than ever at deep shooting (drawing more attention) and penetrating and finishing with those little floaters. I think he's at his peak in passing too. It's a very strong argument for GOAT offensive season, and depending on how far one takes it, unless you consider him a horrible defender (hard to see) that leaves you with a GOAT overall season.

However, the football fan in me is acting up. In the NFL, there are often briefly successful new tactics that are then dampened as teams develop a counter-strategy. Curry has tailed off in efficiency in the second half of the season. Variance? Fatigue? Or defenses trying to adapt a new strategy against him? (Is the book still out on this until next year even?) This isn't like the balancing act a defense faces against peak Shaq or Jordan -- their buckets are worth 2 points only. Curry's efficiency on 3-points shots is so extreme that it seems better for defenses to warp the floor (classically a defensive no-no) to get him off of these shots that are worth like 1.5 points (or more) per attempt. (The equivalent of Jordan or Shaq shooting 75%!)

As of now, there's still some malleability in how I judge his last 2 seasons as I'm synthesizing all this stuff.

Great point.

I'll add that this is always one of my concerns about Wilt in '66-67. He completely changed roles and the team's offense shot through the roof...but the following year wasn't at all the same.

What I'll say though is that it often seemed weird to me that it would take a whole year to "figure it out". I totally get not being figured out in the regular season, but if you're not exposed in the playoffs seems to me it must be pretty hard to figure you out period.

Along those lines, Curry's post-season is going to be very important and I don't think people will be shocked if, say, Pop seems to figure out something amazing which then leads to the Spurs winning the series. If he can't though, and no one else does, I think it's likely that there's not really any way to figure it out.

Still, while I may well call Curry my peak GOAT after June based on this season, I too will be continuing to evaluate him as he goes along and may change my opinion of '15-16 retroactively. In fact I'm sure I'll change my opinion in some ways, it's just a question of whether it will be a dramatic difference.

[lorak]

I think a big part of Curry not being as dominant as he was early in the season is Draymond Green..

He went from being a 42 percent three point shooter before the All Star break to a 31 percent three point shooter over the last 27 games. At 42 percent the Warriors are unguardable and at 31 percent you can leave him open which gives you a lot more liberty when it comes to scheming vs Curry.

In games (26G) when Green had 0 3P% Curry was 49.8% from 3p land.
When (13G) Green hit more than 0, but less than 40%, then Curry was 38.3%.
Green 40% and better (32G) - Curry 46.1%

So doesn't look like that's the reason and Curry actually shots the best, when Green is the worst.

[RSCD3_]

I think a big part of Curry not being as dominant as he was early in the season is Draymond Green..

He went from being a 42 percent three point shooter before the All Star break to a 31 percent three point shooter over the last 27 games. At 42 percent the Warriors are unguardable and at 31 percent you can leave him open which gives you a lot more liberty when it comes to scheming vs Curry.

In games (26G) when Green had 0 3P% Curry was 49.8% from 3p land.
When (13G) Green hit more than 0, but less than 40%, then Curry was 38.3%.
Green 40% and better (32G) - Curry 46.1%

So doesn't look like that's the reason and Curry actually shots the best, when Green is the worst.

What I think he means is that when green started the year ona hot streak from three teams were more afraid to collapse on curry since green was making them pay when he'd get the ball in a rhythm, but since he's cooled off teams are less concerned with draymond's three point ability and are taking the ball out of steph's hands more on the double team, which means less quality looks from three which is why his efficiency fell by 2-3%

[NinjaSheppard]

I think a big part of Curry not being as dominant as he was early in the season is Draymond Green..

He went from being a 42 percent three point shooter before the All Star break to a 31 percent three point shooter over the last 27 games. At 42 percent the Warriors are unguardable and at 31 percent you can leave him open which gives you a lot more liberty when it comes to scheming vs Curry.

In games (26G) when Green had 0 3P% Curry was 49.8% from 3p land.
When (13G) Green hit more than 0, but less than 40%, then Curry was 38.3%.
Green 40% and better (32G) - Curry 46.1%

So doesn't look like that's the reason and Curry actually shots the best, when Green is the worst.

What I think he means is that when green started the year ona hot streak from three teams were more afraid to collapse on curry since green was making them pay when he'd get the ball in a rhythm, but since he's cooled off teams are less concerned with draymond's three point ability and are taking the ball out of steph's hands more on the double team, which means less quality looks from three which is why his efficiency fell by 2-3%

Pretty much this. I am not saying it is the case but I through it out as a possibility.

I don't think picking how Draymond Green does in individual games and then judging how Curry does really disproves that. Teams don't go into a game with hindsight of how Green will perform and play defense accordingly. What could happen is that their scouts and video coordinators show the coachign staff that Draymond over a sample of games has not made teams pay out of certain sets with his three point shots and that could result in teams trying a a more Curry focused strategy.

[lorak]

Green in November shot from 3p line at the same level as in March. His worst month was February, while at the same time it was Curry's the best. I mean, you need some game scouting evidence to make your point valid, show what changed in teams defensive schemes.

[lorak]

I think I know how we can check it. SportVU provides data about how many shots were contested or open. If you are right, then in March (because Green was in shooting slump in February, so teams would adjust after that) Green should have more open shots and less with tight defense, while at the same time Curry less open and more with defender very close. Below is data month by month, % of all shots with closest defender in specific range:

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FEET   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR
0-2   18,5   25,7   28,1   30,7   19,1   24,5
2-4   32,3   36,6   27,4   40,0   32,7   34,0
4-6   30,8   16,6   22,2   12,0   19,8   22,6
6+   18,5   21,1   22,2   17,3   28,4   18,9


Code: Select all

Curry                  
FEET   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR
0-2   13,4   18,7   11,2   9,8   13,3   2,4
2-4   30,8   36,9   33,2   38,3   34,6   23,8
4-6   35,3   32,5   36,9   40,4   38,0   32,1
6+   20,5   11,8   18,6   11,5   14,2   19,0


So indeed for Green we see what we would expect if that hypothesis is true, but Curry has more both open and very tight defended shots. He had similar or higher % of tight defended shots in first two months of season too, so if assumption about defenses focusing him more and affecting his FG% is true, then he should also had worse efficiency in November and December, but that's not the case.

[ceiling raiser]

Green

Do you have him in your top 5 for POY? I watched a disproportionate amount of games of GS this year so I'm not unbiased (I think I watched at least 50% of the games of each of GS/SA, but only <10 games not involving either; I probably won't submit a ballot unless I'm able to watch a lot of the other teams during the playoffs), but it seems difficult for me to keep him out, unless we feel RAPM is due to collinearity with Curry.

[SideshowBob]

Green

Do you have him in your top 5 for POY? I watched a disproportionate amount of games of GS this year so I'm not unbiased (I think I watched at least 50% of the games of each of GS/SA, but only <10 games not involving either; I probably won't submit a ballot unless I'm able to watch a lot of the other teams during the playoffs), but it seems difficult for me to keep him out, unless we feel RAPM is due to collinearity with Curry.

Would you say you're considering Green for top 5 based on what he's done for this GS team or just based on how good he is as a player?

Also, general question to all, Leonard or Green as a defensive player? I've seen some major confidence for both guys but the preliminary ballots lean in favor of Leonard.

Here's the current tally (Assuming 3/2/1 scoring given Top 3 voting)

Leonard: 23
Green: 11
Jordan: 3
Whiteside: 1

[ceiling raiser]

Would you say you're considering Green for top 5 based on what he's done for this GS team or just based on how good he is as a player?

Mostly how good he is as a player, my inclination is the system benefits more from him, than he does from the system/team situation. I think what he provides is so unique (big man with better than passable handles, shooting, playmaking), and even if it's hard to explain, amazing things happen when you put a big with those traits on the floor. This on top of not losing much from the standard lineup when going small with him at the 5.

I do have some concerns though:

1) Collinearity might be more of a factor than usual. Since RAPM (as opposed to an APM) limits deviation from the prior, and prevents outliers from *looking like* outliers, maybe Curry is really a +10 - +12 player, but some of his credit is being apportioned to Green (and others). We would probably need a ridiculous prior for Curry (or a Shaq, to look at someone else) in order to account for this, but it could make our estimates for others worse. Just thinking aloud here. Multi-year does help a bit, but we still have a small-ish sample on Green. Only two years playing in a role like this, and really this year is the first one playing as he is specifically. Tough call.

2) Bogut is valuable, and maybe this is situation dependent. If Green is playing the 5 all year, or for an entire playoff run, does his seemingly endless motor run out? With Bogut perhaps gone after this year (unless I'm incorrect, but this is my understanding), would be interesting to see how Green holds up. Would allow for some reevaluation of Green's 14-15 and 15-16 campaigns in retrospect if what he's doing is sustainable. To some extent this will be true with Kawhi with Duncan gone too. Fortunately, LMA signing in SA means that Leonard won't be asked to do too much and seemingly burn out as he did in last year's playoff. Still though, would be interested to see if Green and Leonard rate highly in DRAPM and the like without Bogut and Duncan, who while not playing high minutes still are elite per-minute defenders (though selfishly, GS and SA are playing at such a high level, you'd like to hope they'll stick with their teams for another year or two).

3) I've discussed the offense/defense problem, based on some of the leakage factors that mystic has mentioned in the past:

Inflate off split
high STLs
high DRBs

Inflate def split
low TOVs
high FG%

It really feels to me like Curry is being over-credited defensively (and under-credited offensively), in part due to collinearity, and in part due to these factors. Vice versa with Green (over-credited offensively and under-credited defensively). I wonder what his true offensive impact is. If the variation is extreme in either direction, that makes thing very interesting, and changes the narrative.

4) Not sure how I feel about Klay. I wasn't as high on him going into this year, though I hadn't watched GS as much in the past. He's looking even better this year by the impact numbers. How much of this is due to his development, and how much is playing with Curry/Green? How much of their improvement is playing with him?

Also, general question to all, Leonard or Green as a defensive player? I've seen some major confidence for both guys but the preliminary ballots lean in favor of Leonard.

Here's the current tally (Assuming 3/2/1 scoring given Top 3 voting)

Leonard: 23
Green: 11
Jordan: 3
Whiteside: 1

Tough call. I want to say Kawhi given that some of those guard numbers from Green that were posted don't look as awesome as they were last year, so that hurts the versatility/1-5 case. Kawhi could very well be playing at a GOAT perimeter defender level now.

This is the second year of this discussion, would be really cool if it comes down to these two for years to come.

[lorak]

Green

Do you have him in your top 5 for POY? I watched a disproportionate amount of games of GS this year so I'm not unbiased (I think I watched at least 50% of the games of each of GS/SA, but only <10 games not involving either; I probably won't submit a ballot unless I'm able to watch a lot of the other teams during the playoffs), but it seems difficult for me to keep him out, unless we feel RAPM is due to collinearity with Curry.

I think Green is very good (if not great) offensive player regardless of Curry, he is also top2 DPOTY (and maybe will be no 1, I'm not sure yet), so he definitely will be in my top 5.

[ceiling raiser]

I think Green is very good (if not great) offensive player regardless of Curry, he is also top2 DPOTY (and maybe will be no 1, I'm not sure yet), so he definitely will be in my top 5.

With Curry/Green in and three spots left, which two of Kawhi, CP3, LeBron, Durant, Westbrook do you think you'll leave off your ballot as of today?

[SideshowBob]

Would you say you're considering Green for top 5 based on what he's done for this GS team or just based on how good he is as a player?

Mostly how good he is as a player, my inclination is the system benefits more from him, than he does from the system/team situation. I think what he provides is so unique (big man with better than passable handles, shooting, playmaking), and even if it's hard to explain, amazing things happen when you put a big with those traits on the floor. This on top of not losing much from the standard lineup when going small with him at the 5.

I do have some concerns though:

1) Collinearity might be more of a factor than usual. Since RAPM (as opposed to an APM) limits deviation from the prior, and prevents outliers from *looking like* outliers, maybe Curry is really a +10 - +12 player, but some of his credit is being apportioned to Green (and others). We would probably need a ridiculous prior for Curry (or a Shaq, to look at someone else) in order to account for this, but it could make our estimates for others worse. Just thinking aloud here. Multi-year does help a bit, but we still have a small-ish sample on Green. Only two years playing in a role like this, and really this year is the first one playing as he is specifically. Tough call.

Yeah, and unfortunately we've no longer got a source for yearly PI-RAPM, so multi-year's all we can rely on. On Green, I agree, I'm keeping my opinion of him malleable as we get to observe this GS team over the next few years.

2) Bogut is valuable, and maybe this is situation dependent. If Green is playing the 5 all year, or for an entire playoff run, does his seemingly endless motor run out? With Bogut perhaps gone after this year (unless I'm incorrect, but this is my understanding), would be interesting to see how Green holds up. Would allow for some reevaluation of Green's 14-15 and 15-16 campaigns in retrospect if what he's doing is sustainable. To some extent this will be true with Kawhi with Duncan gone too. Fortunately, LMA signing in SA means that Leonard won't be asked to do too much and seemingly burn out as he did in last year's playoff. Still though, would be interested to see if Green and Leonard rate highly in DRAPM and the like without Bogut and Duncan, who while not playing high minutes still are elite per-minute defenders (though selfishly, GS and SA are playing at such a high level, you'd like to hope they'll stick with their teams for another year or two).

3) I've discussed the offense/defense problem, based on some of the leakage factors that mystic has mentioned in the past:

Inflate off split
high STLs
high DRBs

Inflate def split
low TOVs
high FG%

It really feels to me like Curry is being over-credited defensively (and under-credited offensively), in part due to collinearity, and in part due to these factors. Vice versa with Green (over-credited offensively and under-credited defensively). I wonder what his true offensive impact is. If the variation is extreme in either direction, that makes thing very interesting, and changes the narrative.

Agree with everything here

4) Not sure how I feel about Klay. I wasn't as high on him going into this year, though I hadn't watched GS as much in the past. He's looking even better this year by the impact numbers. How much of this is due to his development, and how much is playing with Curry/Green? How much of their improvement is playing with him?

I've been pretty solidly Klay on him for >2 years now. Like his movement/spacing/craftiness of the ball, think he's great in iso (face-up, b2b, slashing) and serviceable handling/initiating. Like his length/coverage on defense, and think he keeps mistakes fairly low. He's like a young Ray with more size/strength, less speed, but better defense.

FWIW:

Curry/Green/Iggy | NO Klay (309 MP, 655 Poss)

116.5 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG, +11.3 Net

Curry/Green/Iggy | +Klay (542 MP, 1165)

128.6 ORTG, 97.6 DRTG, +31.0 Net

Throw Barnes into the mix, to account for the Death-squad. Obviously small samples

Curry/Green/Iggy/Barnes | NO Klay (21 MP, 45 Poss)

115.6 ORTG, 100.0 DRTG, +15.6 Net

Curry/Green/Iggy/Barnes | + Klay (171 MP, 375 Poss)

142.1 ORTG, 100.5 DRTG, +41.6 Net

I think there's definitely evidence to suggest he's really well fit for enabling GS's high ceiling. Makes them more dynamic on the ball while bending opposing defenses that much more with his constant movement while Curry/Dray suck in defensive attention on the perimeter/at the top of the key.

How would you rank their top 5 on each end past the 1st spot (Curry #1 for O, Green #1 for D)?

Also, general question to all, Leonard or Green as a defensive player? I've seen some major confidence for both guys but the preliminary ballots lean in favor of Leonard.

Here's the current tally (Assuming 3/2/1 scoring given Top 3 voting)

Leonard: 23
Green: 11
Jordan: 3
Whiteside: 1

Tough call. I want to say Kawhi given that some of those guard numbers from Green that were posted don't look as awesome as they were last year, so that hurts the versatility/1-5 case. Kawhi could very well be playing at a GOAT perimeter defender level now.

This is the second year of this discussion, would be really cool if it comes down to these two for years to come.[/quote]

Indeed. I'm still having a hard time with it ATM.

[SideshowBob]

I think Green is very good (if not great) offensive player regardless of Curry, he is also top2 DPOTY (and maybe will be no 1, I'm not sure yet), so he definitely will be in my top 5.

With Curry/Green in and three spots left, which two of Kawhi, CP3, LeBron, Durant, Westbrook do you think you'll leave off your ballot as of today?

Along that matter,this is the worst year to only be able to vote for 5. This might be the strongest top 6-7 ever.

[ceiling raiser]

How would you rank their top 5 on each end past the 1st spot (Curry #1 for O, Green #1 for D)?

Hm tough call. Without looking at splits:

Offense
2) Thompson
3) Green
4) Iguodala
5) Barnes

Defense
2) Bogut
3) Iguodala
4-5) I'm not sure if Thompson has separated himself on a meaningful level from Barnes (who guards the smallball 4 well), though I don't care about one-on-one man defense all that much (which is Thompson's 'strength')

Livingston looks more comfortable this year but I'm not sure if he can crack the top 5 in either.

[SideshowBob]

I'll start compiling complete In/Out data for GS/SAS/LAC/CLE/OKC/etc. on Thursday once the season is complete and BBR has updated all the SOS numbers.

ATM I'm thinking about Paul and the Clippers w/o Griffin.

Does anyone feel that this was the best he's been as a Clipper? Folks who preferred 08 or 09 Paul over 12/13/14/15, how do you feel about 08 or 09 vs. 16? FWIW I would include myself in that group.

[lorak]

I think Green is very good (if not great) offensive player regardless of Curry, he is also top2 DPOTY (and maybe will be no 1, I'm not sure yet), so he definitely will be in my top 5.

With Curry/Green in and three spots left, which two of Kawhi, CP3, LeBron, Durant, Westbrook do you think you'll leave off your ballot as of today?

A lot depends on what will happen in playoffs. But LeBron would rather be in top 5, because he doesn't play below some level in postseason. I have questions about Kawhi as go to scorer. He failed in last game vs GSW (and that was probably the only regular season game in Popovich's history he wanted to win), he failed in elimination games during last playoffs and unlike Green he isn't a playmaker, but scoring is main aspect of his offensive value. I like how CP carried Clippers without Griffin, so he has high chances of making my top 5. I'm not sure what to do with OKC duo, but one of them would rather be outside of top 5, if not both. Kind of crazy, because I can't imagine Westbrook outside of top 5.

[The-Power]

How would you rank their top 5 on each end past the 1st spot (Curry #1 for O, Green #1 for D)?

Hm tough call. Without looking at splits:

Offense
2) Thompson
3) Green
4) Iguodala
5) Barnes

Defense
2) Bogut
3) Iguodala
4-5) I'm not sure if Thompson has separated himself on a meaningful level from Barnes (who guards the smallball 4 well), though I don't care about one-on-one man defense all that much (which is Thompson's 'strength')

Livingston looks more comfortable this year but I'm not sure if he can crack the top 5 in either.

Actually, Curry's argument is stronger than Livingston's or Klay's on defense although I'm sure this remains an unpopular opinion. Curry's DFG% is more impressive. He ranks extremely good in player tracking data provided by Synergy and consequently ahead of Klay and Livingston. He is comfortably ahead in DRAPM, DRPM - although there are some collinearity-issues, sure - and has the edge in box score based defensive metric albeit they are horrible when it comes to evaluating defense imo, hence I'll never use them in my evaluation. Not to mention that Curry's defense looks quite impressive to the eye as well. The tendency of many people - and I want to emphasize that I don't mean you in particular - to rank Livingston and Klay ahead of Curry on defense is probably based on a mix of their physical traits and recent history.

Regardless of where Curry ranks, I believe some overvalue what Livingston brings to the table on defense. He is long which makes him a great asset to have in line-ups with Curry and Klay but as an individual defender, Shaun isn't that impressive to me. He struggles against quick PGs, has a tendency to defend shooters ineffectively at times (either fouling the shooter or not contesting effectively, something his DFG% supports as well) and gets burned in the PnR regularly (ranks in the 12.5 percentile in guarding the ball handler for instance). I don't see any viable argument for Shaun here.

Klay is a different case. He can be a great defender whenever he's matched up against smaller guards in particular. His on-ball defense is consistently good, although I wouldn't say it's consistently great - he's clearly someone who excels in certain match-ups but isn't special against other players. He doesn't play off the ball as effective as Curry, though. Also, I wouldn't necessarily say Klay's on-ball defense is more impressive than Curry's overall. What I'll say is that he can reach a level as an on-ball defender that Curry can't but this shut-down defense happens only for a limited amount of time. Even if you prefer Klay on defense, the gap is by no means big.

Barnes' case is interesting, to say the least. He rightfully gets credit for being able to defend PFs in the ultra-effective small ball line-up and this makes him valuable to the Warriors. As an individual defender, however, I see him as merely average. Being average on defense against SFs and against PFs alike makes you valuable - but does it make you good? This is where we can see a discrepancy in terms of individual goodness and impact, as he's unimpressive in both cases, and value to the team as average defense at these two positions allows the team to smoothly switch to special line-ups, especially given the fact that he can spread the floor well as a PF (so it's actually the combination of offense and defense from the PF spot which makes him important in our SBDS, not his ability to hold his own against most PFs on defense alone).

[PearGreatness]

Very good discussion the past few pages. I enjoyed reading it.