Hinkie's letter to Sixers shareholders

[MikeM]

If Hinkie wasn't an analytics guy he would be looked at a lot differently.

"Well he knows numbers, he must be smart. Just wait."

I mean, all the guy talks about is stocks and investments but does he realize he has taken the stocks he invested in on the 76ers and run them into the ground? You pick Noel and then put him in the worst situation possible. Guess what, if you want to trade him you get half of what he's worth. You pick Okafor and let him try to get numbers with the hardest shots imaginable. Yup, that will increase his value.

He talks about building a team based on 3 point shooting, pace and defence and he picks Okafor, a player who belongs in the mid 90s who fits none of that criteria, and on top of that completely negates the value of Noel.

There was no plan except to keep firing shots at the top of the draft.

[Arp590]

It hasn't worked out great... unless his master plan was to compile a bunch of assets and then get canned. He was able to get the assets, he wasn't able to keep his job. I can't believe getting fired was part of his master plan.

Similar to running a company. You can build the best product in the world, but if you can't sell it before your capital runs out... you're out of a job. Had he gotten more wins this year (the NBA's currency) and kept his job... then I would say he did a great job.

Getting fired wasn't part of his plan, hence why the person quoted mentioned people are too stupid to comprehend his plan... therefore he was fired.

He resigned. Maybe he didn't understand his own plan.

Forced resignation is a little different...

[Nebula1]

Minnesota did it better.

[jbk1234]

Minnesota did it better.

Minnesota had a better trade chip (I actually think Hinkie killed his trades) and better lottery luck - but that's the problem with full on tanking. The best you get is a one in four shot at the top pick. You're not even guaranteed a top 3 pick.

[Nebula1]

Minnesota did it better.

Minnesota had a better trade chip (I actually think Hinkie killed his trades) and better lottery luck - but that's the problem with full on tanking. The best you get is a one in four shot at the top pick. You're not even guaranteed a top 3 pick.

Which is why I agree with the OP. Hinkie went too far in shedding wins and who knows if we even see Embiid on the floor. Sure, assets have been accumulated but at too much expense and I doubt they're as good as Minnesota in the near future.

I think Milwaukee is another young team that's done a better job getting a roster in order for long term growth. Would you rather have Giannis or Okafor?

[heatwillbeback]

Nobody writes something like this and is "shocked" and "devastated" when its leaked to the media. He wrote this for the media.

Its an absolutely ridiculous read. A resignation letter is simple- thanks, bye. Not this drawn out woe is me manifesto.

[vaff87]

Magic Johnson #1 pick won titles in 86-87 & 87-88
Hakeem Olajuwon #1 pick won titles in 93-94 & 94-95
Mark Aguirre #1 pick won titles in 88-89 & 89-90

So by my count 17 of the past 30 NBA championships have been won with a #1 pick making a major contribution to the team. If you bump that to top 3 pick it becomes something like 24 out of 30. So yeah, drafting in the top 3 is pretty significant.

How many of those 24 were won by top three draft picks who were still on the same team that drafted them?

In the last 30 years. 22 of 30.

Duncan (#1 overall) won 5
Wade (#3 overall) won 3
Jordan (#3 overall) won 6
Hakeem (#1 overall) won 2
Isaiah (#2 overall) won 2
Magic (#1 overall) won 2
McHale (#2 overall) won 2

Wait, in what draft was Dwyane Wade 3rd overall?

You're wrong by two spots.

[Easymoney]

Given the Kings deal Hinkie pulled off, we'll probably be drafting in the lottery regardless of our record until 2019. Think about that.

Could things have gone better? You're damn right. We could have Towns in addition to all of the assets we've already accumulated, but we weren't lucky. I'm certainly satisfied with Okafor as a consolation prize, but that's another discussion.

There is no way any objective party can look at our upcoming draft picks, current players, and cap space and think the Sixers are in a bad position moving forward. 14,15, and 16 will not matter at all if the Sixers are contending by 2019.

[codydaze]

Magic Johnson #1 pick won titles in 86-87 & 87-88
Hakeem Olajuwon #1 pick won titles in 93-94 & 94-95
Mark Aguirre #1 pick won titles in 88-89 & 89-90

So by my count 17 of the past 30 NBA championships have been won with a #1 pick making a major contribution to the team. If you bump that to top 3 pick it becomes something like 24 out of 30. So yeah, drafting in the top 3 is pretty significant.

How many of those 24 were won by top three draft picks who were still on the same team that drafted them?

He's going back 40 years in the draft and applying it to the last 30 years of Championships. He's also conflating single players winning multiple Championships with the overall percentage of finding those players in any given draft. If only three have done it over the last 30 years of drafts, then 27 did not. Moreover, only two players drafted No. 1 overall in the last 15 years have won championships and Bogut did it from the bench last year.

Also, you have to factor in sample size when you look at things like this. There have only been 30 #1 picks in the last 30 years but there have 90 top 3 picks and 210 top 7 picks. Even inflating the number from 30-90 drastically increases the odds that one of those guys are gonna get a title at some point.

[jbk1234]

Nobody writes something like this and is "shocked" and "devastated" when its leaked to the media. He wrote this for the media.

Its an absolutely ridiculous read. A resignation letter is simple- thanks, bye. Not this drawn out woe is me manifesto.

Frankly, it reads like like someone who is trying to plant the seeds for a mutiny. There have been rumors that Harris might want to sell. I think he's fishing for a minority owner who might want to be majority owner.

[Capn'O]

If Hinkie wasn't an analytics guy he would be looked at a lot differently.

"Well he knows numbers, he must be smart. Just wait."

I mean, all the guy talks about is stocks and investments but does he realize he has taken the stocks he invested in on the 76ers and run them into the ground? You pick Noel and then put him in the worst situation possible. Guess what, if you want to trade him you get half of what he's worth. You pick Okafor and let him try to get numbers with the hardest shots imaginable. Yup, that will increase his value.

He talks about building a team based on 3 point shooting, pace and defence and he picks Okafor, a player who belongs in the mid 90s who fits none of that criteria, and on top of that completely negates the value of Noel.

There was no plan except to keep firing shots at the top of the draft.

What? You didn't see the relevance of the plight of the moa to a resignation letter about building a basketball team?

[nodeal]

Hinkies 3rd biggest mistake was resigning. You need to be ruthless to succeed in this business. I wouldve let jerry bring in Bryan as co-commish relegating me to the analytics team. Then as they destroy the team ill be there to put it back together. If they succeed ill be there to take the credit because it was my work that got us into this position. I think hinkie just really wanted to write that letter.

[EvanZ]

In the last thirty years, three No. 1 picks have won championships by my count - Shaq, Duncan and LBJ

You forgot about Andrew Bogut for the past 30 years part.

I am sure I am missing some but going back to the late 50's these are the #1 picks that I know won championships:

Hakkem Olajuwon
Elgin Baylor
Oscar Robertson
Kareem
Bill Walton
James Worthy
David Robinson
Magic

So yeah winning it all as a #1 pick isn't all that common and I will admit this does surprise me some.

I mean, Shaq, Duncan, and LBJ won a bunch of titles. Pretty sure the odds of a championship team having a #1 pick are disproportionately favorable.

KAT might win a bunch of championships. And if AD ever gets to the right team...

But the odds of even a lottery favorite getting a #1 pick aren't that great. It's only about 25%. That means you have to suck for at least 3 seasons to really give yourself a good chance of getting one. And by the time you do that, your owner thinks you can't build a winner, which by definition you were not trying to do. If ever there were a Catch 22...

[youOK]

Given the Kings deal Hinkie pulled off, we'll probably be drafting in the lottery regardless of our record until 2019. Think about that.

Could things have gone better? You're damn right. We could have Towns in addition to all of the assets we've already accumulated, but we weren't lucky. I'm certainly satisfied with Okafor as a consolation prize, but that's another discussion.

There is no way any objective party can look at our upcoming draft picks, current players, and cap space and think the Sixers are in a bad position moving forward. 14,15, and 16 will not matter at all if the Sixers are contending by 2019.

I like a lot of the trades he made but I don't know if I really see the scenario where the sixers are contending by 2019. Maybe they can be where the Bucks are.

[Easymoney]

Given the Kings deal Hinkie pulled off, we'll probably be drafting in the lottery regardless of our record until 2019. Think about that.

Could things have gone better? You're damn right. We could have Towns in addition to all of the assets we've already accumulated, but we weren't lucky. I'm certainly satisfied with Okafor as a consolation prize, but that's another discussion.

There is no way any objective party can look at our upcoming draft picks, current players, and cap space and think the Sixers are in a bad position moving forward. 14,15, and 16 will not matter at all if the Sixers are contending by 2019.

I like a lot of the trades he made but I don't know if I really see the scenario where the sixers are contending by 2019. Maybe they can be where the Bucks are.

If we're only winning 33 games by 2019 it will be because something went terribly wrong with Bryan Colangelo. I see us winning that many games as early as next year.

[basketball royalty]

Given the Kings deal Hinkie pulled off, we'll probably be drafting in the lottery regardless of our record until 2019. Think about that.

Could things have gone better? You're damn right. We could have Towns in addition to all of the assets we've already accumulated, but we weren't lucky. I'm certainly satisfied with Okafor as a consolation prize, but that's another discussion.

There is no way any objective party can look at our upcoming draft picks, current players, and cap space and think the Sixers are in a bad position moving forward. 14,15, and 16 will not matter at all if the Sixers are contending by 2019.

Sure, but would Hinkie have made that move to contention? Or would he keep buying lotto tickets hoping for the big fish?



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[mtron929]

It seems like majority of people who criticize Hinkie have not taken a statistics class. You should understand what the words "expectation value" means before going off on his strategy.

[Shock Defeat]

If Philadelphia had a good scouting department their tanking strategy would've worked great. Unfortunately, high picks mean nothing when you pick busts.

[GopherIt!]

I want to see Hinkie's letter to his diary.

Dear diary,

I quit my job yesterday. Slept in this morning. Found some decent tires cleaning out the garage. Traded them to my neighbor for a used snow blower. Felt like a good deal. It should come in handy in about 9 months. Assuming it works.

[basketball royalty]

They should make a movie about Hinkie and the Sixers. Not a Moneyball type but more a Major League type movie.


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