BOYCOTT WIZARDS TICKETS!

[Illuminaire]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2016/4/6/11377162/ex-season-ticket-holders-message-to-ted-fellow-commiserators

Sup, Hands.

He's just a dude playing a dude playing another dude.

Except that other dude is banned.

[CobraCommander]

and when is a 25 year old NBA player at his peak?

Interesting question. In David Berri's research, he found that NBA players on average improved until their age 25 season, more or less maintained until 29/30 (slight decline, on average), and then got worse as they got older. Using a very different approach, Kevin Pelton found something similar -- he ran numbers to see what percentage of players at each age improved the following season. At 20, it was 69%, etc. -- 60% and up to age 23. And then the percentage dropped: to 55% at 24, 52% at 25 and 26, to 44% at 27. And so on, continuing to drop as the ages got higher. Pelton thought his findings were consistent with peak age being 25 to 27.

Other studies have been done, of course. In general, there's been some convergence on NBA players peaking at 25-27, more or less maintaining until early 30s, and then decline.

I haven't studied peak myself. When I ran projections on Wall back in the preseason, I found that players most like him (similar production at similar age) tended to peak fairly young. On average, his 10 "most similar" peaked just under 25 years old. The oldest "peak" age in that top 10 "most similar" group was 26.

Great post (And1) - who did you compare to Wall? What stats did you consider to determine what was the peak? I look at Wall and I think Westbrook, Paul and Lowry all got better after 25- maybe not in certain stats..but they just learned to play the game better.

[TheSecretWeapon]

and when is a 25 year old NBA player at his peak?

Interesting question. In David Berri's research, he found that NBA players on average improved until their age 25 season, more or less maintained until 29/30 (slight decline, on average), and then got worse as they got older. Using a very different approach, Kevin Pelton found something similar -- he ran numbers to see what percentage of players at each age improved the following season. At 20, it was 69%, etc. -- 60% and up to age 23. And then the percentage dropped: to 55% at 24, 52% at 25 and 26, to 44% at 27. And so on, continuing to drop as the ages got higher. Pelton thought his findings were consistent with peak age being 25 to 27.

Other studies have been done, of course. In general, there's been some convergence on NBA players peaking at 25-27, more or less maintaining until early 30s, and then decline.

I haven't studied peak myself. When I ran projections on Wall back in the preseason, I found that players most like him (similar production at similar age) tended to peak fairly young. On average, his 10 "most similar" peaked just under 25 years old. The oldest "peak" age in that top 10 "most similar" group was 26.

Great post (And1) - who did you compare to Wall? What stats did you consider to determine what was the peak? I look at Wall and I think Westbrook, Paul and Lowry all got better after 25- maybe not in certain stats..but they just learned to play the game better.

I have what I call my statistical doppelganger machine. (This is a better name, I think, than fellow stat goober MikeG's similarity system, which he calls his "Euclidian Similizer".)

My doppelganger machine uses a bunch of stats, including age, playing time, usage, 3FA, FTA, rebounding, ast, stl, blk, tov, pf, pts and PPA. The box score stats are all per 100 team possessions -- pace neutral. My database goes back to the 1977-78 season (so far). So, I basically ask the "machine" to find player seasons "most similar" to Wall's 2014-15 season reaching all the way back to 1977-78. It gives me the list: similar age. I can go as far down the list as I want. For example, the machine says the player LEAST similar to Wall (minimum 500 minutes) was a 38-year old Alton Lister.

Wall's "most similars" from last season were Deron Williams (ages 23-25), Isiah Thomas (age 24 & 25 seasons), Kenny Anderson (23 & 24), Andre Miller (24), Robert Pack (26 -- his one really good season; that guy got a hurt a lot), Terrell Brandon (27), Chris Paul (24), Kevin Johnson (25). Oldest guy who shows up reasonably high on the similars list is Tim Hardaway's age 29 season.

[CobraCommander]

Interesting question. In David Berri's research, he found that NBA players on average improved until their age 25 season, more or less maintained until 29/30 (slight decline, on average), and then got worse as they got older. Using a very different approach, Kevin Pelton found something similar -- he ran numbers to see what percentage of players at each age improved the following season. At 20, it was 69%, etc. -- 60% and up to age 23. And then the percentage dropped: to 55% at 24, 52% at 25 and 26, to 44% at 27. And so on, continuing to drop as the ages got higher. Pelton thought his findings were consistent with peak age being 25 to 27.

Other studies have been done, of course. In general, there's been some convergence on NBA players peaking at 25-27, more or less maintaining until early 30s, and then decline.

I haven't studied peak myself. When I ran projections on Wall back in the preseason, I found that players most like him (similar production at similar age) tended to peak fairly young. On average, his 10 "most similar" peaked just under 25 years old. The oldest "peak" age in that top 10 "most similar" group was 26.

Great post (And1) - who did you compare to Wall? What stats did you consider to determine what was the peak? I look at Wall and I think Westbrook, Paul and Lowry all got better after 25- maybe not in certain stats..but they just learned to play the game better.

I have what I call my statistical doppelganger machine. (This is a better name, I think, than fellow stat goober MikeG's similarity system, which he calls his "Euclidian Similizer".)

My doppelganger machine uses a bunch of stats, including age, playing time, usage, 3FA, FTA, rebounding, ast, stl, blk, tov, pf, pts and PPA. The box score stats are all per 100 team possessions -- pace neutral. My database goes back to the 1977-78 season (so far). So, I basically ask the "machine" to find player seasons "most similar" to Wall's 2014-15 season reaching all the way back to 1977-78. It gives me the list: similar age. I can go as far down the list as I want. For example, the machine says the player LEAST similar to Wall (minimum 500 minutes) was a 38-year old Alton Lister.

Wall's "most similars" from last season were Deron Williams (ages 23-25), Isiah Thomas (age 24 & 25 seasons), Kenny Anderson (23 & 24), Andre Miller (24), Robert Pack (26 -- his one really good season; that guy got a hurt a lot), Terrell Brandon (27), Chris Paul (24), Kevin Johnson (25). Oldest guy who shows up reasonably high on the similars list is Tim Hardaway's age 29 season.

Whoa...I am not worthy. I am a guy at the game with a note pad and some fries. I have NBA game package and I go to a lot of away games. I played and I have Been watching for years...but never have been privileged enough to have or know of a doppelgänger machine.

I think Wall can get better if he focuses in on becoming a better shooter and minimizing the turnovers. But he has to work on it during the offseason and commit to it like Jimmy Butler did.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Whoa...I am not worthy. I am a guy at the game with a note pad and some fries. I have NBA game package and I go to a lot of away games. I played and I have Been watching for years...but never have been privileged enough to have or know of a doppelgänger machine.

I'm weird. I know it. I accept it.

I think Wall can get better if he focuses in on becoming a better shooter and minimizing the turnovers. But he has to work on it during the offseason and commit to it like Jimmy Butler did.

Definitely agree. The trouble is that we were saying the exact same things about Wall when he was at Kentucky. He's a very good player even with those issues. His shooting IS better -- he's a good 3pt shooter now. His shot selection is still poor -- 31% of his FGA were longs twos (16+ feet) this season, which he converts at about the same rate as a 3pt attempt. With full understanding that a team can't always get the shots it wants, and that 2pt jumpers are sometimes necessary, it's difficult for me to believe that nearly one-in-three of Wall's FGAs need to be long twos. That's just not believable to me.

He'll probably always commit a relatively high number of turnovers. His ast/tov ratio isn't bad. I think the real leak in his game is shot selection (and frequency). Compare, for example, with Steve Nash, who was a GREAT shooter. Nash committed LOTS of turnovers (comparable to Wall's rate per 100 team possessions), but generated more assists, shot less frequently overall and on long twos. That said, I don't think Wall needs to imitate Nash stylistically. Wall is a far superior athlete, and I think he can do more and be even better than Nash was.* But, I do think Wall could be more effective by shooting less often and taking better shots; by using his vision and passing ability to be even more of a setup man than he has been. I think this will involve him overhauling some aspects of his game. For example, I think he could boost his team's efficiency in screen/roll sets by doing a better job of using screens. I've been noticing the same problem since he was a rookie (he leaves too much space between himself and the screener, which will allow his defender to get through the pick without switching or hedging; and it leads to moving screen calls on the big man). Honestly, I'm amazed that he's played six years in the NBA without it being corrected by professional coaches.

* -- I'm aware that Nash won the MVP 2x. I didn't think he deserved either one (PPA would have said Garnett and Nowitzki). It would take HUGE improvement from Wall to get to the level of Nash's MVP seasons. But, Nash rated average-to-below average his first four seasons, and then got a lot better in his 5th year -- at age 26. Then he got better still -- his best years were his 10th and 11th seasons. Not sure why I'm spending so much time on Nash. I guess, just sorta hoping maybe Wall can consider that a different approach to the game might yield better results. Though, there probably isn't a ton of reason for him to think about a change -- he's an All-Star, he's on a max contract and he'll probably get another one when this one is finished, and he's praised as one of the game's very best players.

[nate33]

Stylistically, I think the guy for Wall to try and emulate is Jason Kidd in his NJ era. Wall has the size, athleticism, court vision and pass-first mentality to do so. He'll probably never be as good of a rebounder, but he does everything else just as well except play consistent defense. Assists, steals and blocks and turnovers are about equal.

Prime Jason Kidd averaged about 24 points per 100 possessions. He shot about 14 2PA's, 6 3PA's and 6 FTA's per 100 possessions. Only 33% of his FGA's were between 10-22 feet and he shot roughly 38% from that range.

Wall averages about 27 points per 100 possesions, but it takes him 18 2PA's, 6 3PA's and 6 FTA's. The problem is that 42% of his FGA's are from 10-22 feet, and he shoots just 37% from that range. Wall is just like Kidd, except he launches and extra 4 2PA's, mostly from midrange, and only gets 3 extra points to show for it. If Wall could give those shots to somebody like Gortat, or to spot up 3-point shooters, the team would score and extra 2 points per game. That's 5 more wins. If he tightened up the D, he could probably get another win.

So basically, if Wall simply cuts back on his 2PA's and plays more consistent defense, he'll be Jason Kidd minus the rebounding. That type of play would make this .500 team a consistent 47-win team.

[CobraCommander]

Whoa...I am not worthy. I am a guy at the game with a note pad and some fries. I have NBA game package and I go to a lot of away games. I played and I have Been watching for years...but never have been privileged enough to have or know of a doppelgänger machine.

I'm weird. I know it. I accept it.

I think Wall can get better if he focuses in on becoming a better shooter and minimizing the turnovers. But he has to work on it during the offseason and commit to it like Jimmy Butler did.

Definitely agree. The trouble is that we were saying the exact same things about Wall when he was at Kentucky. He's a very good player even with those issues. His shooting IS better -- he's a good 3pt shooter now. His shot selection is still poor -- 31% of his FGA were longs twos (16+ feet) this season, which he converts at about the same rate as a 3pt attempt. With full understanding that a team can't always get the shots it wants, and that 2pt jumpers are sometimes necessary, it's difficult for me to believe that nearly one-in-three of Wall's FGAs need to be long twos. That's just not believable to me.

He'll probably always commit a relatively high number of turnovers. His ast/tov ratio isn't bad. I think the real leak in his game is shot selection (and frequency). Compare, for example, with Steve Nash, who was a GREAT shooter. Nash committed LOTS of turnovers (comparable to Wall's rate per 100 team possessions), but generated more assists, shot less frequently overall and on long twos. That said, I don't think Wall needs to imitate Nash stylistically. Wall is a far superior athlete, and I think he can do more and be even better than Nash was.* But, I do think Wall could be more effective by shooting less often and taking better shots; by using his vision and passing ability to be even more of a setup man than he has been. I think this will involve him overhauling some aspects of his game. For example, I think he could boost his team's efficiency in screen/roll sets by doing a better job of using screens. I've been noticing the same problem since he was a rookie (he leaves too much space between himself and the screener, which will allow his defender to get through the pick without switching or hedging; and it leads to moving screen calls on the big man). Honestly, I'm amazed that he's played six years in the NBA without it being corrected by professional coaches.

* -- I'm aware that Nash won the MVP 2x. I didn't think he deserved either one (PPA would have said Garnett and Nowitzki). It would take HUGE improvement from Wall to get to the level of Nash's MVP seasons. But, Nash rated average-to-below average his first four seasons, and then got a lot better in his 5th year -- at age 26. Then he got better still -- his best years were his 10th and 11th seasons. Not sure why I'm spending so much time on Nash. I guess, just sorta hoping maybe Wall can consider that a different approach to the game might yield better results. Though, there probably isn't a ton of reason for him to think about a change -- he's an All-Star, he's on a max contract and he'll probably get another one when this one is finished, and he's praised as one of the game's very best players.

Good points- I do think he has improved since Kentucky. I think the team collapsed around him this year. Build with him and pray we get Beal on the cheap...KO and Porter get better, our Cheerleaders stay hot...then all we need is a new hype man, 11 more players, a new coach, a new GM, a new shooting coach, and JW to sign with Nike and we will win 45 games next year.

[fishercob]

FWIW, I went to my first game in a couple of months yesterday. Spoke with 3 other people in my section (100), none of whom are renewing.

[dobrojim]

So I got a new clean poster board and am considering what to put on it for the finale Wed night.

I think one side could stay more/less the same

"GM - EG"
13 Years
.421 winning %age
24th best/30 teams"

On the other side I am thinking something along the lines of the below
(this arising from talks with older daughter who inexplicably or uncharacteristically naively
defends retaining EG on the basis of loyalty)

Ted where is your Loyalty?
with Fans or Ernie?
Can't be both.

Open to other suggestions between now and Wednesday.

[TheSecretWeapon]

So I got a new clean poster board and am considering what to put on it for the finale Wed night.

I think one side could stay more/less the same

"GM - EG"
13 Years
.421 winning %age
24th best/30 teams"

On the other side I am thinking something along the lines of the below
(this arising from talks with older daughter who inexplicably or uncharacteristically naively
defends retaining EG on the basis of loyalty)

Ted where is your Loyalty?
with Fans or Ernie?
Can't be both.

Open to other suggestions between now and Wednesday.

Not sure about how to phrase this for a poster exactly, but...Grunfeld has been responsible for picking players in 24 drafts (this is his 25th season running a franchise). During those 24 years, he's selected two All-Stars.

[AFM]

Remember not to use a baby blue pastel crayon this time you silly goose.

[nuposse04]

So I got a new clean poster board and am considering what to put on it for the finale Wed night.

I think one side could stay more/less the same

"GM - EG"
13 Years
.421 winning %age
24th best/30 teams"

On the other side I am thinking something along the lines of the below
(this arising from talks with older daughter who inexplicably or uncharacteristically naively
defends retaining EG on the basis of loyalty)

Ted where is your Loyalty?
with Fans or Ernie?
Can't be both.

Open to other suggestions between now and Wednesday.

Not sure about how to phrase this for a poster exactly, but...Grunfeld has been responsible for picking players in 24 drafts (this is his 25th season running a franchise). During those 24 years, he's selected two All-Stars.

That is staggering futility. Kinda wish wiz twitter would be competent enough to never stop emphasizing this.

[nate33]

So I got a new clean poster board and am considering what to put on it for the finale Wed night.

I think one side could stay more/less the same

"GM - EG"
13 Years
.421 winning %age
24th best/30 teams"

On the other side I am thinking something along the lines of the below
(this arising from talks with older daughter who inexplicably or uncharacteristically naively
defends retaining EG on the basis of loyalty)

Ted where is your Loyalty?
with Fans or Ernie?
Can't be both.

Open to other suggestions between now and Wednesday.

Not sure about how to phrase this for a poster exactly, but...Grunfeld has been responsible for picking players in 24 drafts (this is his 25th season running a franchise). During those 24 years, he's selected two All-Stars.

I'd also mention how many of those picks were lotto picks. He haD 12 1st round picks for Washington including 6 lotto picks. He picked one All-Star.

[fishercob]

Can you just write down the URL to his thread and hold it on a sign?

[montestewart]

Ernie-
Marry Me
-Millie

[dobrojim]

barring some better suggestions about the sign for tonight, I'm
going with what I posted above. Maybe try to get something
about the paucity of AllStars drafted in there too.

Gawd I hope EG gets fired.

[nate33]

Yeah, just add the line: 12 1st rd picks, 6 lotto picks, 1 All star.

[dobrojim]

So my daughter in college found a pix of me last night at the game
with my poster in snapchat. Lots of agreement as I walked around
holding the sign up in my seat and around the concourse at halftime.
No disagreement at all.

There's probably a pix somewhere on social media of the other side
of the sign. Lots of people were taking my pix of it.

[Kanyewest]

Yeah, just add the line: 12 1st rd picks, 6 lotto picks, 1 All star.

Although technically EG turned one of those draft picks into Jamison who was an all star.

The 2011 draft should have been enough to move on from EG. At this point, I'm not sure what EG has to do to get fired.

[dobrojim]

email I just sent to my acct rep

How is it possible that the architect of 13 years of mediocrity still has a job?

Against my better judgment I renewed half of my plan. I feeling very sorry now to
have done that. Is Mr Leonsis really this blind? I seriously doubt anything that happens
in the next year will have me renewing for another year.

In 13 years under Ernie, the team has a .421 winning percentage.
This ranks 24th out of 30 teams and that actually makes it sound better than
it is because that .421 number was closer to 27th than 23rd.

The most wins we’ve had is 46. In 13 years. This is a significant sample size.

Yes Randy had to go. But Ernie needs to be right behind him.

Remember the definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly, like continuing
to give authority to a empirically proven incompentent, and expecting a different result.

Please share this with your supervisors.