The NBENFANT Thread (NBA): 2023-2024 Edition!

[zzaj]

I believe that San Antonio potentially resting players to end the year will have a direct effect on the 7th and 8th spots in the Western Conference and will effectively decide if Utah or Houston miss the playoffs. Here's why...

I took a slightly deeper look into the games left to play for Utah, Memphis, Blazers, Houston and Dallas. I believe we actually will end up with a 3 way tie at 41-41 at the end of the year...with HOU/UTA/DAL all ending with that record. If this ends up being the case than their final order will probably be (with 3 way tiebreakers)
HOU (Beating DAL in the SWDiv record and 28-24 WCONF)
DAL (26-26 WCONF)
UTA (25-27 WCONF)

Utah
@PHX, vSAS, vLAC, @DEN, vDAL, @LAC

I predict they go 3-3 in these remaining games. Although there is a decent chance that they go 4-2 if SAS decides to rest players. If 3-3, that would give them an overall record of 41-41, 1-0 in their DIV and 3-3 in the WC.

Memphis
@ORL, vCHI, @DAL, vGSW, @LAC, @GSW

I predict Memphis goes 2-4 in these remaining games, putting their final record at 43-39, and probably 0-4 in the WC.

Portland
vMIA, @GSW, @SAC, vOKC, vMIN, vDEN

I predict the Blazers will go 3-3 in these remaining games, putting their final record at 43-39, and probably 3-2 in the WC.

Houston
vOKC, @DAL, vPHX, vLAL, @MIN, vSAC

I predict Houston will go 4-2 in these games, putting their final record at 41-41, 0-1 in their DIV and 4-2 in the WC.

Dallas
@MIN, vHOU, vMEM, @LAC, @UTA, vSAS
I predict Dallas will go 3-3 in these remaining games, with a decent chance to go 4-2 if SAS rests their starters. If 3-3, that would give them a final overall record of 41-41, 2-1 in their DIV and 3-3 in the WC.

------------------------
so, accordingly:

1) GSW
2) SAS
3) OKC
4) LAC
5) PDX 43-39 (beating MEM because of vWCONF record)
6) MEM 43-39
7) HOU 41-41 (beating DAL & UTA because of vSWdiv and vWCONF records)
8) DAL 41-41 (beating UTA because of vWCONF record)
9) UTA 41-41

Now, if SAS decides to rest their starters in the games indicated above?

1) GSW
2) SAS
3) OKC
4) LAC
5) PDX 43-39 (beating MEM because of vWCONF record)
6) MEM 43-39
7) DAL 42-41 (beating UTA because of vWCONF record)
8) UTA 42-41
9) HOU 41-41

I suppose the good news (if you are foolish enough to actually believe something that comes out of my mouth) is that I predict that the Blazers will make the 5th seed based on the vWCONF tie breaker for a matchup with the LAC in the first round.

The bad news? We have to withstand a series of a flopping Chris Paul hitting wide open 13 foot jumpshots against the Blazers non-hedging defense and at least a couple of games of Jamal Crawford playing like a world-beater against Portland and hitting 26' jump shots consistently.

[DusterBuster]

Yuck. The thought of a Blazers Clippers first round series kinda makes me ill. I hate everything about the Clippers. Having to watch them for a minimum of 4 straight games sounds downright painful.

[Norm2953]

It would be interesting to see how Blake Griffin comes back with the Clippers for he's going to be
totally rested after missing time with injuries and suspension. A first round matchup will see a
lot of DAJ at the foul line.

[GreenRiddler]

Everyone has a rivalry vs the Clips. It would be annoying and fun to have ours vs them finally play out in the POs even if we lose. I am just glad we may not have to face SA or GS.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Yuck. The thought of a Blazers Clippers first round series kinda makes me ill. I hate everything about the Clippers. Having to watch them for a minimum of 4 straight games sounds downright painful.

Totally agree.

Warriors or Spurs - At least we get to watch some beautiful basketball while we get beat
OKC - At least we get to watch Durant/Westbrook, two undeniable talents who are fun to watch, beating us.

Against the Clippers its just going to be a whole lot of ref's calling fouls in their favor (or even more whining if the calls don't go their way) and getting beat by the whistle. I actually didn't mind the team too much until Doc took over, I kind of rooted for them to finally be relevant, but the culture he brought with him turned me off in a major way.

[DusterBuster]

Yuck. The thought of a Blazers Clippers first round series kinda makes me ill. I hate everything about the Clippers. Having to watch them for a minimum of 4 straight games sounds downright painful.

Totally agree.

Warriors or Spurs - At least we get to watch some beautiful basketball while we get beat
OKC - At least we get to watch Durant/Westbrook, two undeniable talents who are fun to watch, beating us.

Against the Clippers its just going to be a whole lot of ref's calling fouls in their favor (or even more whining if the calls don't go their way) and getting beat by the whistle. I actually didn't mind the team too much until Doc took over, I kind of rooted for them to finally be relevant, but the culture he brought with him turned me off in a major way.

I can't stand Westbrook's complainy face, but yeah, heaps better than watch CP3 and Blake flop for 48min straight for 4 to 7 games. I didn't like them well before Doc, but I totally agree, Doc took them from being just annoying to downright insufferable. They already had that entitled attitude and it just got a million times worse once he came in.

That said, nothing would make me happier than seeing Portland take them out in the first round if possible. I don't see it as likely, but how amazing would that be. I would rank it up there with the Houston series. Maybe not in terms of drama (doubt anything will be the drama of that series), but in terms of the sheer joy I would take seeing Portland send smug Doc Rivers home early and keeping CP3 from yet another Conference Finals appearance..... oh man I'd be happy.

[Wizenheimer]

the biggest problem I have with a Port/LAC playoff series is the worry that Stotts will use the hack-a-jordan strategy a whole bunch and Rivers will retaliate by using the hack-a-davis or hack-a-plumlee. I really don't want to watch those type of games

I'd think the Blazers would get swept by either the Warriors or Spurs. The best they could do against OKC might be 1 win. Against the Clips it might get a little more interesting, but as zzaj said, Chris Paul is Kryptonite for Portland's passive PnR offense, and Crawford and Reddick find plenty of open space too

[GreenRiddler]

God help whoever draws the Jazz. Slow pace offense, bruising defense. Offense can be exposed though.

[Wizenheimer]

Phoenix had lost 7 games in a row and 12 of their last 15. So they go into Houston tonight and beat the Rockets by 9 after outscoring them by 10 in the 4th Q. The Rockets are a hot mess right now. It says something about the Western Conference this season that they still might make the playoffs...the best they can do now is 41-41

[DusterBuster]

Rockets stink. Mathematically they still have a chance, but they've shown nothing this season for me to think they'll be able to pull their s together.

I find the Rockets a weird story this year. They've had almost no change from last year outside of head coach and they've not really had any major injury problems. Even still, the Rockets are a shell of their former selves. Really shows how piss poor chemistry can make for a volitile team.

[Norm2953]

I found the thread on the general board concerning what is wrong with the Rockets hilarious
for mental midgets might be a great summary for them.

[Downtown]

And it was either Harden or Howard a couple weeks ago that said he feels the Rockets are good enough to challenge for the championship this season.

[Shem]

7 NBA Players Who Should Have Been All Time Greats:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lztoh-Cup9k

Right now if I use the YouTube video codes, I get this message:

"Your message contains too few characters."

That's why you don't see them.

[GreenRiddler]

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=1409554&start=20#start_here

So much for that thread, the Blazers are now the only team (other than the Warriors) to shoot 37% or higher from 3 point land on at least 25 or more 3 point attempts a game.

It is crazy how we didn't even try to build an offensive 3 point shooting roster, but this one is just as good (actually slightly better given more 3 pt attempts a game) at shooting the 3 ball as that ridiculous 2013-14 Blazer team.

[DusterBuster]

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=1409554&start=20#start_here

So much for that thread, the Blazers are now the only team (other than the Warriors) to shoot 37% or higher from 3 point land on at least 25 or more 3 point attempts a game.

It is crazy how we didn't even try to build an offensive 3 point shooting roster, but this one is just as good (actually slightly better given more 3 pt attempts a game) at shooting the 3 ball as that ridiculous 2013-14 Blazer team.

It's really a testament to Stotts imo. Nothing on paper said this team should be a better 3pt shooting team than last years Blazers. We have a bunch of guys who were generally considered poor outside shooters and they all are having career years from 3. You move the ball and get guys wide open shots in rhythm, good things happen.

[Wizenheimer]

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=1409554&start=20#start_here

So much for that thread, the Blazers are now the only team (other than the Warriors) to shoot 37% or higher from 3 point land on at least 25 or more 3 point attempts a game.

It is crazy how we didn't even try to build an offensive 3 point shooting roster, but this one is just as good (actually slightly better given more 3 pt attempts a game) at shooting the 3 ball as that ridiculous 2013-14 Blazer team.

It's really a testament to Stotts imo. Nothing on paper said this team should be a better 3pt shooting team than last years Blazers. We have a bunch of guys who were generally considered poor outside shooters and they all are having career years from 3. You move the ball and get guys wide open shots in rhythm, good things happen.

maybe, but I suspect it's not just that.

if it was, Harkless and Leonard would be shooting quite a bit better then they are. Harkless entered the season as a career 31% shooter and has shot 27.5% this season. Leonard entered as a 40% shooter and has shot 37.7% this year. Although, to be fair, in Leonard's case, his 'career' mark was really just a 1 season mark, last season; and there is plenty of reason to think that his shooting marks last season might be a little bit of an aberration.

The difference makers have been CJ and Aminu. CJ entered the season as a 38.8% career shooter and has upped that to 42%. The big 'surprise' has been Aminu. He entered the season as a 28% career shooter on a 5 year total of 381 attempts. This season, he attempted 344 three's (almost equal to his 5 year total) and has shot 36% on them. That''s a really significant improvement

if you apply CJ's and Aminu's career marks to the years team totals, the Blazers would be shooting 35.2% instead of 37.1%. Just applying Aminu's career mark would 'drop' the Blazers from 37.1% to 35.9%.

Henderson is having his best shooting season at 35.3%, but it isn't that much better then his previous 3 seasons when he averaged 33.6%. If he had shot that average this season, he would have made 4 more three's...about 1 extra three every 19 games

I was certainly wrong about how well the Blazers were going to shoot...I was figuring about 35%, and that mark would be below league average. For Portland to shoot better then last season's mark surprises me, or at least it surprises last October's me. Of course, last season was a a bit bollixed by the Matthews injury and a somewhat dysfunctional end-of-season offense.The healthy Blazer version of that team, the 2013-14 version shot 37.2%, slightly beating this year's team.

but the overall three point game has taken a bit of a dive. The Blazers are shooting 37.1%, but their opponents are shooting 37.2%, a negative differential. They are 28th in the league in opponent percentage. In the previous two seasons, they had significant positive differentials and ranked 11th and then 6th last season. Of course, they had Matthews and Batum as two of the primary perimeter defenders

My hunch is that it's the green light Stotts gives his players to shoot three's that has helped the team mark, maybe as much as the scheme. Young players knowing they won't get yanked for taking and missing a three might do more then getting open shots. In fact, if you listen to Mike and Mike, it sounds like Stotts only gets on a player when they are open and don't take the three...green light means green light

there's room for improvement on this year's team too. I've yapped about it before, but it centers on Lillard. He shot 39.4% on three's in 2013-14. He's shooting 37.5% this season. What's the difference? Well, in 2013-14, he was assisted on 59.6% of his three's; this season, he's at a career low in assisted three's at 46.5%. I don't think it was a coincidence that his best 3 point shooting season was the year he had his highest assisted mark. If the Blazers could get more open catch & shoot three's for Lillard, it would very likely improve his shooting percentage and since he averages 8.1 attempts a game, that would make a huge difference. It would also help if Lillard would abandon those 30' "heat-check" three's. He seems to take a couple of those a game and he's got to be shooting less then 10% on them.

[GreenRiddler]

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=1409554&start=20#start_here

So much for that thread, the Blazers are now the only team (other than the Warriors) to shoot 37% or higher from 3 point land on at least 25 or more 3 point attempts a game.

It is crazy how we didn't even try to build an offensive 3 point shooting roster, but this one is just as good (actually slightly better given more 3 pt attempts a game) at shooting the 3 ball as that ridiculous 2013-14 Blazer team.

It's really a testament to Stotts imo. Nothing on paper said this team should be a better 3pt shooting team than last years Blazers. We have a bunch of guys who were generally considered poor outside shooters and they all are having career years from 3. You move the ball and get guys wide open shots in rhythm, good things happen.

Yeah some guys were real surprises. I never thought Aminu--who never took 2 or more threes a game before this year, would take over 4 and shoot 36% which is a solid "Can't leave him open" percentage. It reminds me of when we traded for AA when he shot 34% with the nuggets and then shot up to 41% here. The system does a really good job of generating wide open threes for players. It is one of the reasons why you can't just sign good shooters or passers and expect it to work, unless you have the environment to nurture them and put them in positions to succeed. Stotts does that pretty well. I get the defensive criticism for him but I don't think he gets enough credit for building an offenssive power house out of a good backcourt and some discarded roleplayers/prospects.

Also for the bump in percentage we had guys you could've expected would make the jump in Crabbe and CJ to replace Wes and Wright's shooting. Additionally Meyers didn't drop off too much from his .420 season a year ago and Lillard had a good year from outside VS his poor season a year ago.

[GreenRiddler]

Don't know where to put this, but if we win Friday, we face GS on Sunday 12:30 PST. God a part of me is hoping the Clips use this as a excuse to give-up. I remember Mike Fratello use to say how his players gave up on him at times when they had to play in Portland at the end of a road trip.

This is like the end of a road trip for these emotionally and physically drained Clippers. They battled hard that 1st half but man they didn't score at all in the 3rd qtr. We just gotta get right on offense and score 100 pts. I wonder if they bring it in a hostile environment with the odds stacked against them. I am pretty confident the guys on this team will be focused on the Clippers and only the Clippers these next couple of days.

[GreenRiddler]

Been a fun 4 years on these boards, but man this was a tough way to go out. I'll see how long this lasts as RG is one of those things that has you back when you find 5 mins of spare time, but I think Imma be gone for good or a while, more likely for good. I deserve it just for that god dang jinx to end all jinxs. If there is one thing I know that is absolutely not gonna happen in life, it's this Blazer team coming back from 3-1 down vs this Warriors team (jinx redemption?).

See ya.

[Wizenheimer]

Been a fun 4 years on these boards, but man this was a tough way to go out. I'll see how long this lasts as RG is one of those things that has you back when you find 5 mins of spare time, but I think Imma be gone for good or a while, more likely for good. I deserve it just for that god dang jinx to end all jinxs. If there is one thing I know that is absolutely not gonna happen in life, it's this Blazer team coming back from 3-1 down vs this Warriors team (jinx redemption?).

See ya.

believe it or not GR, I'm sorry to see you go. I'm not sure what RG means but I wish you lots of good fortune in the path ahead