Playoffs Round 1: LA Clippers vs Portland Trail Blazers

[og15]

What are you guy's thoughts on this series? What general strategies will / should the Clippers employ? What will the rotations look like? How many games do you think it will take?

[Captain Ballmer]

I'm expecting a sweep. Only way i see Blazers has a chance to steal a game is Hack-a-DJ results 8-30 FT accuracy and Doc takes him away to the bench for god's sake and Blazers Bigs(Plumlee, Davis) make a huge run and outrebounds us badly while we failing to score in offense.

[Quake Griffin]

Least interested I've been in a Clippers playoff series in a long while.
Looks like Lillard hasnt been allthat great over the last month. X-Factor imo is going to be how we guard McCollum. He can get a hot hand and become sort of unstoppable. I'd say stick Luc on him but then I think AFA might do something like bully JJ on the offensive boards.



Can we finally win a series in the CP era in less than 7 games????
Might actually benefit us to have the series go longer....more reps for Griffin?

[Forte IV]

I say we beat them in 5. Their guards can get hot in a hurry. Davis is a superstar against us. But I expect us to prevail

[DLaren]

What general strategies will / should the Clippers employ?

Our basketball players are better than their basketball players -- we don't need any strategy to win this series.

What we do need to do is have the entire team (maybe the entire organization) go to some kind of group therapy before Sunday's game -- our problems are mental and emotional.

If I'm Doc, I'm getting everyone together tonight and we're re-watching our collapse against Houston from last season. Then, if I'm Ballmer, I'm spending top-dollar on a group-therapist this Saturday, somewhere away from the city, to get everybody's mind right.

[ejftw]

We take this in six. Lillard and McCollum won't be in god mode, and the supporting cast is lackadaisical.

Ed Davis will demolish us though

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/LAClippers/status/721107553661247488[/tweet][tweet]https://twitter.com/johnschuhmann/status/721117487530668033[/tweet][tweet]https://twitter.com/trailblazers/status/720996569386864641[/tweet]

[og15]

What general strategies will / should the Clippers employ?

Our basketball players are better than their basketball players -- we don't need any strategy to win this series.

What we do need to do is have the entire team (maybe the entire organization) go to some kind of group therapy before Sunday's game -- our problems are mental and emotional.

If I'm Doc, I'm getting everyone together tonight and we're re-watching our collapse against Houston from last season. Then, if I'm Ballmer, I'm spending top-dollar on a group-therapist this Saturday, somewhere away from the city, to get everybody's mind right.

Lol, this team has not had any problems in the first round though, so they can save that for the second round. Of course they do still need proper strategy, just not anything special compared to what they would have done before.

I'm assuming Doc will have the guys playing off Aminu and Harkless on the perimeter and pressuring Lillard and McCollum on the pick and roll.

[Wammy Giveaway]

Game 1
Game 2
Game 3
Game 4

Clippers Prevention Line: 18.7 shots for 41.0 PTS, 11.7 POS, 5.5 AST, 17.7 TOV, 11.5 helps
Blazers Prevention Line: 18.5 shots for 42.5 PTS, 7.5 POS, 3.7 AST, 12.7 TOV, 7.7 helps

Clippers will be highly disadvantaged in the rebounding department, for they will be facing off against the 5th best team in total rebounding, 4th best in offensive boards. Ed Davis, Noah Vonleh and Mason Plumlee know how to box out, while the entire Clipper unit seem absolutely phobic to working underneath the rim. The Clippers, however, play the rebounding game a little differently, as you will see below:

Game 1
LAC: 4 ORB / 42 REB
POR: 5 ORB / 55 REB

Game 2
LAC: 13 ORB / 55 REB
POR: 5 ORB / 54 REB

Game 3
LAC: 7 ORB / 42 REB
POR: 3 ORB / 49 REB

Game 4
LAC: 4 ORB / 47 REB
POR: 3 ORB / 41 REB

The left item represents the total number of possessions that were prevented by offensive rebounds. The offensive rebound must result in the team getting another scoring opportunity (provided the possession was not compromised within the first 3 seconds of securing the ball); or the player firmly secured the ball and was consequently fouled. Ball must hit the rim for the prevention to count. (This coming directly from my Preventions metric)

The first game saw Portland winning not just because of the total number of rebounds they gobbled up, but due to the 5 offensive rebounds where they resulted in an extra possession in favor of the Blazers, a drawn foul against the Clippers, or both. In Games 2 through 4, it was the Clipper's turn to turn those offensive rebounds into extra possessions and free throw opportunities, and the Clippers got the W in all of them.

This is a game where the Clippers need to win through their offense. As a bonus, Chris Paul can practice guarding Damian Lillard because by the time they draw the Warriors in the 2nd round, Paul will be ready to take on the king of point guards that is Stephen Curry.

[kylem4711]

i say clips in 6

[og15]

So here's what I'm assuming Doc's strategy will be defensively.

Pressure Portland's guards into the big on pick and rolls:
This is Doc's go to defense against primary ball handling perimeter guys. It is also more effective when guys are not so good or willing to shoot from mid-range (eg: Harden and Lillard). So far CP has done a good job with it vs Lillard. I'm assuming the Blazers will try to do something to counter its effectiveness, but you can't really run isolation plays all game and expect effective offense from Lillard.

Chris Paul was able to contain Curry enough vs GS in 13-14. Curry averaged 23 ppg / .599 TS% for the series, but it took him 42.4 mpg to get that 23 ppg, which comes out to 19.5 pts/36. He was averaging 23.7 pts/36 during the regular season on .610 TS%, so he wasn't as productive in comparison. On the other end being guarded primarily by Thompson, Paul averaged 17.4 ppg / .555 TS% in 35 mpg which comes up to 17.9 pts/36.

I don't know if Lillard will get to rest on defense in the series like Curry did, Portland hasn't done too much of that, so that should be helpful for the Clippers in terms of making him work just as much as CP on defense.

Many people underrate Redick defensively, but he's quite solid outside of his physical limitations. Here's some Redick vs Harden footage from this season where he's taking away the pick and totally forcing Harden into the big man:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cb_QmFbMeDY

Here's some footage with him defending vs isolation from last playoffs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv0rKOmBbGE

Lucky for Redick, McCollum is not a FT spammer like Harden. I also think Redick will benefit from decreased minutes in comparison to last post-season where he was playing 39 mpg. He'll play about 30 mpg this post-season which should allow him to be more productive on both ends.

The Clippers could also consider putting a bigger and longer defender like Luc or Johnson on McCollum to help with containing him, but we'll see.

Force Aminu and Harkless to beat you from outside:
This is what a lot of teams would do with Matt Barnes. Aminu has improved as a 3PT shooter, he's at 36.1% 3PT on 4.3 3PA, but he's not a knockdown shooter, and you can dare him to beat you from the perimeter. Similarly, Harkless' 3PT shot is a work in progress, and he's only shot 27.9% 3PT on the season, 29% 3PT in the final 11 games that he started. What this means is that the Clippers will play off them on the perimeter to contain Lillard and McCollum getting to the basket and to protect the rim against the roll man.

Protect the defensive glass:
So this is an issue for the Clippers and has been an issue for some time. On the season, the Clippers were 28th in DRB%, and we can all remember the Portland game some time back where Plumlee and Davis killed the Clippers on the offensive glass. One sliver of hope is this, the starting lineup of Chris Paul / JJ Redick / Luc Mbah A Moute / Blake Griffin / DeAndre Jordan only played 18 games / 273 minutes. That lineup grabbed 80.5% of defensive rebounds and 54.2% of total rebounds. The starting lineup for a good amount of the time Blake was out, Paul / Redick / Mbah / Pierce / Jordan grabbed 79.3% DREB and 51.3% TRB. If anyone was not aware, it is the primary bench small ball lineup used through most of the season that was attrocious on the glass, they grabbed 63% DREB and 38% TRB, yea, very, very, very bad.


Offensively the Clippers will generally just do the same thing. The bench just needs to not suck and there should be enough offensive production to win the series. The starting lineup of:

Chris Paul / JJ Redick / Luc Mbah A Moute / Blake Griffin / DeAndre Jordan

111.1 Ortg / 91.7 Drtg / +19.4 NetRtg

We're not exactly sure what level of production Blake is at, but if that lineup is at a similar production level, it's going to be really hard to Portland to keep up with them.

[mkwest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RowanKavner/status/721400049494691840[/tweet]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSJtPRlKK3U[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFGx_KQqtkw[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EufqsFbxzv4[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgLueTC0h6k[/youtube]

[ducler]

[thanumba2clippersfan]

It's been a crazy couple of days for me. I had to drive my wife to Pittsburgh so that she could fly out to Cali, her brother isn't doing so well. I haven't had much sleep and we have the latest game today. I'll do my best to stay up and watch the game. If I doze off hopefully I can catch the end.

[Neddy]

It's been a crazy couple of days for me. I had to drive my wife to Pittsburgh so that she could fly out to Cali, her brother isn't doing so well. I haven't had much sleep and we have the latest game today. I'll do my best to stay up and watch the game. If I doze off hopefully I can catch the end.

we love our clipper basketball, but in the end it is still just a game.

handle your business, take care of your family and good luck to you and your brother-in-law. I just came back from my wife's little sister's wedding in Camarillo, CA. I got me a new brother in law myself and even when they are through marriage, they are still your brothers.

my thoughts are with your family.

[mttwlsn16]

This series shouldn't last more than 5 games honestly.

[Quake Griffin]

This series shouldn't last more than 5 games honestly.

I wish I had the guts to make that shouldn't a won't.

But I don't.

[Wammy Giveaway]

Seven of the eight games were either blow outs or expected outcomes. The world is praying that the Clippers-Blazers series will be random and dramatic:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/721881716256694274[/tweet]

In short, the Clippers are still a puppet to the NBA when it comes to "being made an example of."

[nickhx2]

i would read that as the basketball world wanting to see a competitive game, over anything else

[mkwest]

It's been a crazy couple of days for me. I had to drive my wife to Pittsburgh so that she could fly out to Cali, her brother isn't doing so well. I haven't had much sleep and we have the latest game today. I'll do my best to stay up and watch the game. If I doze off hopefully I can catch the end.

I'm sad to hear that. My thoughts and prayers are with your family.