2016 draft thread: Part 2

[Worm Guts]

Continue draft discussion here.

[Domejandro]

I'll move my post on the Trade and Transactions forum to over here. Details are far from complete, but Draft Order, as well as draft picks owned by each team is fully updated to reflect the current, pre-lottery order.

Each Teams' Draft Picks

Spoiler:

#21, #44, and #54

#44 is acquired from the Washington Wizards (June 25th, 2015)


#3, #16, #23, #31, #35, #45, #53, and #58

#3 is acquired from the Brooklyn Nets (July 12th, 2013)
#16 is acquired from the Dallas Mavericks (December 18th, 2014)

#31 is acquired from the Philadelphia 76ers via the Miami HEAT (January 15th, 2014)

#35 is acquired from the Minnesota Timberwolves via the Phoenix Suns (January 9th, 2015)

#45 is acquired from the Dallas Mavericks (December 18th, 2014)

#53 is acquired from the Miami HEAT (January 15th, 2014)

#58 is acquired from the Cleveland Cavaliers (September 25th, 2014)


#55

#55 is acquired from the Los Angeles Clippers in return for their second round draft pick (July 11th, 2012)


#22


#14 and #48

#48 is acquired from the Portland Trailblazers via the Cleveland Cavaliers (January 7th, 2014); Chicago conveys the better of Portland's second round draft pick, and their own second round draft pick (July 14th, 2014)

Chicago will receive the Sacramento Kings' First Round Draft Pick if it does not fall within its protections
(1-10; currently #8)


N/A


#49

#49 is acquired from the Memphis Grizzlies (July 22nd, 2013); Dallas will convey the better of their pick and Memphis' pick to the Boston Celtics (December 28th, 2014)


#7, #19, #51, and #56

The Denver Nuggets has the option receive the New York Knicks' first round draft pick in return for Denver's own first round draft pick [Denver's pick is #9; New York's is #7] (February 22nd, 2011)

#15 is acquired from the Houston Rockets (July 20th, 2015)

#19 is acquired from the Portland Trailblazers (February 19th, 2015

#51 is acquired from the Charlotte Hornets via the Oklahoma City Thunder (February 18th, 2016)

#56 is acquired from the Oklahoma City Thunder (February 18th, 2016)


#18 and #49


#30


#37 and #43

#37 is acquired from the New York Knicks via Sacramento via Portland


#20 and #50


#25 and #33

#33 is acquired from the Brooklyn Nets via pick-swap; if Los Angeles' pick falls between 56-60, Brooklyn's obligation to Los Angeles is voided (July 11th, 2012)


#2 and #32

Los Angeles will lose their pick to the Philadelphia 76ers if it falls below its protections (1-3)


#17 and #57

#57 is acquired from the Toronto Raptors (July 9th, 2009)


N/A


#10, #36, and #39

#36 is acquired via the New Orleans Pelicans [if Sacramento falls below New Orleans in the standings, Milwaukee will receive the better of the two picks] (July 12th, 2013


#5


#6, #38, and #40

#38 is acquired from the Denver Nuggets (Denver 24th, 2015)

#40 is acquired from the Sacramento Kings (July 12th, 2013)


N/A


N/A


#11, #41, and #47

#47 is acquired from the Chicago Bulls (July 14th, 2014)


#1, #24, and #26

#24 is acquired from the Miami HEAT via the Cleveland Cavaliers (August 23rd, 2014)

#26 is acquired from the Oklahoma City Thunder via the Denver Nuggets via the Cleveland Cavaliers (February 19th, 2015)

Philadelphia will receive the Los Angeles Lakers' first round draft pick if it falls outside of its protection (1-3)

Philadelphia can swap their first round draft pick with the Sacramento Kings' first round draft pick (July 9th, 2015)


#4, #13, #28, and #34

#13 is acquired from the Washington Wizards [protected 1-9] (February 18th, 2016)

#28 is acquired from the Cleveland Cavaliers via the Boston Celtics (February 19th, 2015)


N/A


#8 and #59

#59 is acquired from the San Antonio Spurs (July 9th, 2015)

Sacramento will receive the lesser of Philadelphia's first round draft pick and their own.


#29


#9 and #27

#9 is acquired from the Denver Nuggets via the New York Knicks; the Toronto Raptors will receive the lesser of New York's and Denver's first round draft pick (July 10th, 2013)


#14, #45, #52, and #60

#52 is acquired from the Boston Celtics via Memphis (June 26th, 2014)

#60 is acquired from the Golden State Warriors (July 10th, 2013)


N/A

Washington will retain their pick if rise in the lottery (1-9 protected; currently #13)

-----------
1. Philadelphia 76ers

Spoiler:

-----a. Pick Odds

-----------First: 29.3%
-----------Second: 23.89%
-----------Third: 18.45%
-----------Fourth: 28.36%

-----b. Roster Going into Off-Season

-----------Ish Smith** / T.J. McConnell* / Kendall Marshall*
-----------Isaiah Canaan** / Nik Stauskas / Sonny Weems*
-----------Robert Covington* / Hollis Thompson***
-----------Jahlil Okafor / Jerami Grant* / Carl Landry
-----------Nerlens Noel / Joel Embiid / Richaun Holmes

-----c. Likely Draft Pick

-----------Assuming Philidelphia wins the first overall draft pick, the 76ers face an interesting conundrum regarding their selection between the forwards out of Louisiana State and Duke University, Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram. Ben Simmons gives Philadelphia a versatile Power-Forward who offers great athleticism, elite ball-handling, and passing while having promise as a defensive player. That said, despite his dominance on the collegiate level, Ben Simmons has shown nonexistent range outside the paint, and is often unwilling to shoot when not within five feet. In addition, many have concerns regarding his work ethic, as his defensive effort is often lackadaisical, and Simmons has had a myriad of academic issues. On top of these concerns, Philadelphia as a team struggles greatly from beyond the arc, as their two big-men, Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel, are currently mediocre-to-poor mid-range shooters. Though flashing long-range shooting ability, Joel Embiid has yet to play one game, missing the past two seasons with a stress fracture in his right navicular bone.

-----------In contrast, Brandon Ingram offers the outside shooting ability the Philadelphia 76ers desperately need, shows promise as a great defensive player, and fills a hole in their wing rotation. Though being an ideal fit from a talent perspective, Brandon Ingram is a much greater risk than Ben Simmons, as he is physically frail for his height (6'9" 190 lbs, one inch taller, but only seven pounds heavier than Corey Brewer when he entered the league), and has a frame that does not project to gain much weight. In addition, he is "raw" on both sides of the court, and is far from as polished as Ben Simmons. Though this is understandable given that he is fourteen months younger than Simmons, concerns regarding his ability to translate long-term are warranted.

My opinion is that they would select Brandon Ingram out of Duke University.

2. Los Angeles Lakers

Spoiler:

-----a. Pick Odds

-----------First: 19.9%
-----------Second: 18.8%
-----------Third: 17.1%
-----------Fourth: 31.9%
-----------Fifth: 12.3%

-----b. Roster Entering Off-Season

-----------D'Angelo Russell / Marcelo Huertas**
-----------Jordan Clarkson** / Louis Williams
-----------Nick Young / Anthony Brown / Ryan Kelly**
-----------Julius Randle / Brandon Bass^
-----------Larry Nance Jr. / Tarik Black**

-----c. Likely Draft Pick

-----------It will be whoever falls to them, let's not be silly with hypothetical scenarios. Something astronomical would have to happen for one of those two to not be selected second overall.

-----D. Pick Obligation

-----------This pick is protected 1-3 in the 2016 NBA Draft. If not falling within these protections, Los Angeles will convey their pick to Philadelphia (Traded to Phoenix for Steve Nash, which was then used in a three way deal involving Philadelphia [Michael Carter-Williams], Milwaukee [Brandon Knight], and Phoenix [Los Angeles Draft Pick])

-----------
3. Boston Celtics

Spoiler:

-----a. Pick Odds

-----------First: 15.6%
-----------Second: 15.7%
-----------Third: 15.6%
-----------Four: 22.6%
-----------Fifth: 26.5%
-----------Sixth: 4.0%

-----b. Roster Entering Off-Season

-----------Isaiah Thomas / Marcus Smart / Terry Rozier
-----------Avery Bradley / R.J. Hunter / James Young
-----------Jae Crowder / Jonas Jerebko*
-----------Amir Johnson* / Jordan Mickey
-----------Jared Sullinger** / Kelly Olynyk / Tyler Zeller**

-----c. Likely Draft Pick


-----------W

Given the uncertainty of their big-men positions going into the off-season, Dragan Bender is the obvious choice. See Phoenix for an explanation of the pro's and con's between Jaylen Brown and Dragan Bender.

4. Phoenix Suns

Spoiler:

-----a. Pick Odds

-----------First: 11.9%
-----------Second: 12.6%
-----------Third: 13.3%
-----------Four: 9.9%
-----------Fifth: 16.1%
-----------Sixth: 16.%
-----------Seventh: 1.3%

-----b. Roster Entering Off-Season

-----------Eric Bledsoe / Brandon Knight
-----------Devin Booker / Archie Goodwin / John Jenkins*
-----------P.J. Tucker* / T.J. Warren
-----------Alex Len
-----------Tyson Chandler

-----c. Likely Draft Pick

-----------Owning one of the more difficult picks, Phoenix has a variety of different ways in which they could go with the fourth overall pick, each having their own merits. That said, due to their roster construction, as well as the lack of variance in talent at this position, it is fair to assume that their focus will be geared towards bolstering their forward positions in the upcoming Draft. With this in mind, the two likely candidates to be drafted by the Phoenix Suns are Califonia's Jaylen Brown, and Bosnian big-man, Dragan Bender; a decision that will be decided by the Boston Celtics.

[Before Phoenix fell to fourth overall, here was my write-up about each prospect].

Dragan Bender has a diverse skill-set for the Power-Forward position and has outstanding height for the position, standing at two meters sixteen (seven feet one inch). Highly regarded for his ball-handling ability, passing, and developing range, Dragan ideally offers the Phoenix Suns an excellent front-court partner next to Alex Len, as well as a facilitator to relieve pressure off of Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, and Devon Booker. Bender also projects to be an intelligent defensive player. That said, Dragan Bender is prone to making foolish, unforced errors due to his youth, and is physically unready for the leap to the NBA; he a risky option.

In contrast, Jaylen Brown is a physically dominant Small-Forward who would ideally serve as a defensive anchor to mitigate the poor defense of Brandon Knight and Devin Booker. In addition, he is a powerful rebounder and is dynamic in the open court, as he is able to bully his opponents around the basket, and he is an intelligent decision maker (smart passer, limits mistakes, etc). As a side-note, he is, by all accounts, an excellent human-being (I personally can attest to this). That said, he is a flawed player who struggles shooting outside of the paint, and has a weak handle with his off-hand. He lacks creativity in the half-court, and struggles to find his own shot.

Due to the success of home-town Small-Forward, T.J. Warren, as well as Phoenix's need for a legitimate Power-Forward, it is fair to deduce that Phoenix will likely select Dragan Bender from Maccabi Tel Aviv, if Boston makes him available. If not, then Jaylen Brown is the likely choice, as no other big-men warrant being drafted so high, and Phoenix is loaded with talented, young guards.

It should be noted that Jaylen Brown is wavering on his decision to enter the 2016 NBA Draft, and may return with Ivan Rabb to California.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves
6. New Orleans Pelicans
7. Denver Nuggets (New York Knicks pick swap)
8. Sacramento Kings
9. Toronto Raptors (Denver Nuggets pick swap with New York)
10. Milwaukee Bucks
11. Orlando Magic
12. Phoenix Suns (Washington Wizards)
13. Houston Rockets
14. Chicago Bulls
15. Utah Jazz
16. Boston Celtics (Dallas Mavericks)
17. Denver Nuggets (Portland Trailblazers)
18. Detroit Pistons
19. Indiana Pacers
20. Memphis Grizzlies
21. Charlotte Hornets
22. Philadelphia 76ers (Miami HEAT)
23. Atlanta Hawks
24. Boston Celtics
25. Los Angeles Clippers
26. Toronto Raptors
27. Philadelphia 76ers (Oklahoma City Thunder)
28. Phoenix Suns (Cleveland Cavaliers)
29. San Antonio Spurs
30. Golden State Warriors

31. Boston Celtics (Philadelphia 76ers)
32. Los Angeles Lakers
33. Phoenix Suns
34. Los Angeles Clippers (Brooklyn Nets)
35. Boston Celtics (Minnesota Timberwolves)
36. Milwaukee Bucks (New Orleans Pelicans)
37. Houston Rockets (New York Knicks)
38. New Orleans Pelicans (Sacramento)
39. New Orleans Pelicans (Denver Nuggets)
40. Milwaukee Bucks
41. Orlando Magic
42. Atlanta Hawks (Washington Wizards)
43. Houston Rockets
44. Boston Celtics (Dallas Mavericks)
45. Utah Jazz
46. Orlando Magic (Chicago Bulls)
47. Chicago Bulls (Portland Trailblazers)
48. Indiana Pacers
49. Dallas Mavericks (Memphis Grizzlies)
50. Detroit Pistons
51. Boston Celtics (Miami HEAT)
52. Denver Nuggets (Charlotte Hornets)
53. Utah Jazz (Boston Celtics)
54. Atlanta Hawks
55. Brooklyn Nets (Los Angeles Clippers)
56. Memphis Grizzlies (Toronto Raptors)
57. Denver Nuggets (Oklahoma City Thunder)
58. Boston Celtics (Cleveland Cavaliers)
59. Sacramento Kings (San Antonio Spurs)
60. Utah Jazz (Golden State Warriors)[/size]

* Not guaranteed
** Qualifying Offer
*** Team Option
^ Player Option

Template for when I finish this in the upcoming two days.

Spoiler:

1.

-----a. Pick Odds

-----------First:
-----------Second:
-----------Third:
-----------

-----b. Projected Roster

-----------
-----------
-----------
-----------
-----------

-----c. Likely Draft Pick

-----------

[ace625214]

So I see that you're going through all that work, but how is it any different than these:

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/team
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/yearly


Edit: Oh, you're just adding in your own draft analysis along with the copy/paste of the picks.

[Domejandro]

So I see that you're going through all that work, but how is it any different than these:

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/team
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/yearly


Edit: Oh, you're just adding in your own draft analysis along with the copy/paste of the picks.

The draft analysis was mainly a lazy footnote, but I pretty much only made it for convenience. You could just go to Tankathon.com and scan through for each team's pick, but the list I put up puts each pick # under each team.

It is relatively pointless, but meh, I had nothing better to do.

[Klomp]

Another PF who would be an interesting comp for Simmons is Greek Freak. Now, I realize Simmons doesn't have the elite defense or the length of Giannis, but it's an example to show that you don't need great range to be a productive forward.

[Takingbaconback]

But if he doesn't have the elite defense or the length/wingspan/athleticism of a Giannis, that just takes away a huge percentage of why Giannis is successful without great range. I would argue that Simmons must develop 18 footer like Griffin did, like previously mentioned, to be successful cuz there isn't too much to his game after being able to dribble well, pass, and rebound.

[Devilzsidewalk]

He kinda reminds me of Julius Randle, except he likes passing. Maybe a touch of David Lee thrown in for good measure.

[Domejandro]

2006 Boris Diaw with more athleticism, but less range. He will likely be better, but that is an immediate base that comes to mind.

[Mattya]

Worse defense, more explosive young Boris Diaw is a good comparison.

[Takingbaconback]

His face looks like Boris Diaws too

[Colbinii]

Let's hope his work ethic isn't Boris Diaws.

[Piecake]

Boris Diaw

[Vindicater]

If we fall in the draft I would not mind looking at either Poeltl or Ellison to pair next to work in a 3 man rotation with Dieng/Towns.

[RationalGaze]

I'm only interested in seeing the Wolves draft a Power Forward. Dragan, Davis, Sabonis, Ivan if he comes out, and to a lesser extent Marquese. Marquese has the athleticism to play SF and I think he'll end up there long-term if the PF position proves too much.
Ben has an heir about him and is clearly overrated. It's not so much he doesn't have a jump shot as it's the fact he hasn't been working on it and shows less and less interest in doing so according to other scouts. Everyone speaks for Ben about how he's going to develop a shot in x amount of time, but his game has been speaking for itself and it's not happening unless he changes his attitude which he shows no interest in doing.
Ellenson doesn't belong in the Lottery and can't figure out why he's still in there other than being a name before the seasons started. He's a worse defender than Okafor and attempts to shoot 3s, but clearly doesn't have that down either. He would be a horrible fit as he's not going to fit in a whole lot when the ball isn't in his hands. Dieng is a better defender than Ellenson, but that's still not enough to be a starter on DIeng's behalf.

[Teen_Wolf]

If we get say 2nd pick do we still take Bender outright? Or do we take Ingram and try and trade down for Bender?

I like Brandon more than Dragan even though he's a worse fit with Wiggins and Zach.

[Nitroglycerin]

You take Ingram and run for your life

[GopherIt!]

If we stay at 5, I would be interested in trading down.

Go get one of Deyonta Davis, Sabonis & Brice Johnson & either Prince or Luawau.

[john2jer]

Not a popular opinion, but I love Denzel Valentine, especially if we trade down with one of the teams that has multiple 1sts.

[Domejandro]

If we stay at 5, I would be interested in trading down.

Go get one of Deyonta Davis, Sabonis & Brice Johnson & either Prince or Luawau.

Timothé Luwawu is top five on my personal board, I absolutely love his game.

[GopherIt!]

Not a popular opinion, but I love Denzel Valentine, especially if we trade down with one of the teams that has multiple 1sts.

This guy is crazy.