'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[SideshowBob]

BBR: 2015-16 Warriors Enter NBA Record Book

6th-best average margin of victory in NBA history: The Warriors outscored their opponents by 10.76 PPG, which was the best by any NBA team since the 1996-97 Bulls outscored their opposition by 10.80 PPG. However, the Warriors outscored their opponents by 10.0 PPG in the 1st three quarters of games alone, which is something none of the teams ahead of them on the list managed.

[lorak]

Hustle stats are available and after first day Green looks impressive on defensive end - contested shots:

Green 19 (no one else in that game had more than 9)
M. Turner 16, George 12, Bismack 12, Patterson 11, Mahinmi 10
Horford 17, Millsap 13, Bazemore 12, E. Turner 11
Ibaka 15, Kanter 12, Matthews 11, D. Powell 10

[SideshowBob]

2016 Los Angeles Clippers In/Out Splits (82 G, 53-29)

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Griffin In/Out - Paul/Jordan/Craword/Reddick Control (69 G)

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Control | (69 G, 47-22)

+5.09 SRS, +2.2 Offense, -2.8 Defense

109.1 ORTG, 103.8 DRTG, +5.1

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All IN | Griffin OUT | (42 G, 29-13)

+6.30 SRS, +4.4 Offense, -1.9 Defense

110.7 ORTG, 104.9 DRTG, +6.3 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Griffin IN | (27 G, 18-9)

+3.05 SRS, -1.1 Offense, -4.3 Defense

106.5 ORTG, 102.2 DRTG, +3.2 Adjusted Net

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Raw Griffin IN/OUT

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Griffin IN | (35 G, 22-13)

+2.00 SRS, -0.4 Offense, -2.9 Defense

107.0 ORTG, 103.5 DRTG, +2.4 Adjusted Net
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Griffin OUT | (47 G, 31-16)

+5.71 SRS, +4.1 Offense, -1.5 Defense

110.5 ORTG, 105.3 DRTG, +5.6 Adjusted Net

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[SideshowBob]

Should be able to do In/Out for OKC tonight. Any other team requests? Or splits for the already posted teams?

[LA Bird]

Jamal Crawford won the 6MOY award again

2015-16 KIA NBA SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR RESULTS
Player | Team | 1st place (5 pts) | 2nd place (3 pts) | 3rd place (1 pt) | Total Points
Jamal Crawford | L.A. Clippers | 51 | 23 | 17 | 341
Andre Iguodala | Golden State Warriors | 33 | 35 | 18 | 288
Enes Kanter | Oklahoma City Thunder | 19 | 20 | 27 | 182
Will Barton | Denver Nuggets | 15 | 21 | 20 | 158

edit: It's already posted on the General board. I would have thought this kind of thing would be on PC board.

[Dr Spaceman]

Jamal Crawford won the 6MOY award again

2015-16 KIA NBA SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR RESULTS
Player | Team | 1st place (5 pts) | 2nd place (3 pts) | 3rd place (1 pt) | Total Points
Jamal Crawford | L.A. Clippers | 51 | 23 | 17 | 341
Andre Iguodala | Golden State Warriors | 33 | 35 | 18 | 288
Enes Kanter | Oklahoma City Thunder | 19 | 20 | 27 | 182
Will Barton | Denver Nuggets | 15 | 21 | 20 | 158

edit: It's already posted on the General board. I would have thought this kind of thing would be on PC board.

My take:

This is an absolute travesty.

Jamal Crawford is not a good basketball player. The Clippers are dramatically worse (on the order of 6 points/100 possessions) when he's on the floor. He murders their defense and hijacks their offense with a 25% USG while shooting below league average TS%.

I mean this is just bizarre. We're supposed to be more enlightened with the dawn of analytics; I mean hell we gave Iggy FMVP last year but we can't give him 6MOY? I get that he didn't want the award, but there are plenty of deserving candidates, and lots of them were not bench players because they sucked but rather because they were sacrificing to achieve better balance in the starting lineup for their elite team. The Spurs have the best bench in the league by a mile and the Clippers have probably the worst, but God forbid Ginobili or Diaw get some recognition.

It just doesn't make sense to me. The media has truly made great strides in their player analysis and awards voting but for some baffling reason 6MOY still goes to the guy who vomits up awful shots at an obscene rate. Sorry for the rant and I may get killed for this but this is truly irritating.

[Mutnt]

Lol, who's voting for these awards and why are they still allowed to come back every year?

Jamal Crawford is a below league median basketball player in multiple metrics, which is FAR from the most important/impactful bench player in the league.

[SideshowBob]

@everyone:

What do you believe GS's title odds are with Curry playing in the postseason?

What do you believe their odds are with him out all postseason?

[bondom34]

@everyone:

What do you believe GS's title odds are with Curry playing in the postseason?

What do you believe their odds are with him out all postseason?

Ballpark?

90-95 percent

30 percent


I don't think he's that big a RS gap, but the Spurs are just so good. I think they make the WCF either way but the Spurs are probably a win with him, and probably a loss w/o him.

[Dr Spaceman]

@everyone:

What do you believe GS's title odds are with Curry playing in the postseason?

What do you believe their odds are with him out all postseason?

Hard to put percentages on it. Give them about a 75% to beat the Spurs and a 95+% chance to beat everyone else with Curry.

Without? I actually think the Spurs will wallop them. They aren't even strong enough to get past the Clippers, who have the 2nd best starting unit in the NBA assuming Griffin gets back to form.

[SideshowBob]

@everyone:

What do you believe GS's title odds are with Curry playing in the postseason?

What do you believe their odds are with him out all postseason?

Ballpark?

90-95 percent

30 percent


I don't think he's that big a RS gap, but the Spurs are just so good. I think they make the WCF either way but the Spurs are probably a win with him, and probably a loss w/o him.

My only question here would be, do you think they're that much better than SAS w/Steph? Let's assume they're 100% locks for rounds 1, 2, 4 , which would mean all sweeps; mathematically only possible if GS is around 25-30 points better than they're opponents, (but obviously in reality its far more doable - see 09 Cavs, 10 Orl, 12 Spurs in 1st two rounds).

At 90%, with HCA they'd have to be near 75-25 favorites over San Antonio
At 95%, with HCA they'd have to be near 85-15 favorites over San Antonio

I mean obviously they're the favorites, but if the Spurs are a +10 SRS/67 win team, Golden State would have to be like a +25 SRS team for those odds to hold.

[bondom34]

@everyone:

What do you believe GS's title odds are with Curry playing in the postseason?

What do you believe their odds are with him out all postseason?

Ballpark?

90-95 percent

30 percent


I don't think he's that big a RS gap, but the Spurs are just so good. I think they make the WCF either way but the Spurs are probably a win with him, and probably a loss w/o him.

My only question here would be, do you think they're that much better than SAS w/Steph? Let's assume they're 100% locks for rounds 1, 2, 4 , which would mean all sweeps; mathematically only possible if GS is around 25-30 points better than they're opponents, (but obviously in reality its far more doable - see 09 Cavs, 10 Orl, 12 Spurs in 1st two rounds).

At 90%, with HCA they'd have to be near 75-25 favorites over San Antonio
At 95%, with HCA they'd have to be near 85-15 favorites over San Antonio

I mean obviously they're the favorites, but if the Spurs are a +10 team/67 win team, Golden State would have to be like a +25 SRS team for those odds to hold.

Strength wise no, but I think the matchup isn't ideal for SAS, and they'd have home court which is huge for them. I think with Steph, I give a punchers chance of an upset. Without him I'd take the Spurs to win pretty comfortably.

[Mutnt]

With Curry they're clearly the favorites, don't feel like putting percentiles in there.

Without Curry? Yeah, no way they're winning against the Spurs without Curry. They're underdogs against CLE, OKC and LAC too.

[bondom34]

But on the topic of 6th man, I feel much better about that whopping Kanter contract right now. Hoping someone takes it off OKC's hands.

[SideshowBob]

So this is roughly what I'm thinking for the top-tier teams:

GSW +12-13 SRS
SAS +10-11 SRS
OKC +7 SRS
LAC +7 SRS
CLE +6.5 SRS
GSW w/o Steph +5-6 SRS

Steph taking GS from +5-6 -> +12-13 is GOAT-ish level lift

San Antonio is more consistent, but their top end isn't GS level

OKC/LAC are Finals caliber teams but cannot compete against two historic teams in the same year/conference. LAC was +7ish last year as well

GS w/o Steph is the kind of team that could top the EC in the regular season but isn't a serious contender, low 50 wins in the WC, maybe mid-to-high 50 wins in the East.

Cleveland in Lebron's 76 games alone were a +6.5 team. If he reverts to peak or near-peak form (say he coasted in the RS, or he finds his jumper) they might jump to a +9ish team. Get clearly outclassed in the Finals by either SAS/GSW, but not straight-up embarrassed

I will develop my thoughts more as we're able to hone-in on teams in the later rounds a bit more.

[Mutnt]

Pretty much agree with Sideshow.

Also, I'd love to see a OKC vs. LAC series. Unfortunatley we probably won't get it, but from a hypothetical standpoint, I'm kinda favoring the Clippers right now.

[Doctor MJ]

Jamal Crawford won the 6MOY award again

2015-16 KIA NBA SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR RESULTS
Player | Team | 1st place (5 pts) | 2nd place (3 pts) | 3rd place (1 pt) | Total Points
Jamal Crawford | L.A. Clippers | 51 | 23 | 17 | 341
Andre Iguodala | Golden State Warriors | 33 | 35 | 18 | 288
Enes Kanter | Oklahoma City Thunder | 19 | 20 | 27 | 182
Will Barton | Denver Nuggets | 15 | 21 | 20 | 158

edit: It's already posted on the General board. I would have thought this kind of thing would be on PC board.

Drives me nuts. They should kill off this award if they can't get voters who actually think beyond "who scores the most points from the bench".

Crawford really shouldn't have come close to winning any award ever that involves people from outside the 2000 draft class.

[Doctor MJ]

But on the topic of 6th man, I feel much better about that whopping Kanter contract right now. Hoping someone takes it off OKC's hands.

I hear Sacramento is quite peaceful this time a year.

[bondom34]

But on the topic of 6th man, I feel much better about that whopping Kanter contract right now. Hoping someone takes it off OKC's hands.

I hear Sacramento is quite peaceful this time a year.

He'd be interesting next to Cousins if they wanted him. I'm not sure who takes him but I feel relatively confident he's traded pretty soon, either for a wing or cap space to sign one. There's just a glut on the roster and I hated the contract at first but he's been pretty solid. I don't know if his value goes up much more.

[SideshowBob]

2016 Oklahoma City Thunder In/Out Splits (82 G, 53-29)

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Durant In/Out - Russ/Ibaka/Waiteres/Adams/Roberson Control (61 G) (Kanter missed no games)

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Control | (61 G, 44-17)

+8.28 SRS, +7.5 Offense, -1.2 Defense

114.1 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +8.7 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Durant OUT | (6 G, 3-3)

-6.12 SRS, -3.2 Offense, +0.1 Defense

104.4 ORTG, 104.9 DRTG, -3.3 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Durant IN | (55 G, 41-14)

+9.85 SRS, +8.7 Offense, -1.3 Defense

115.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +10.0 Adjusted Net

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Raw Griffin IN/OUT

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Durant IN | (72 G, 52-20)

+8.60 SRS, +8.4 Offense, -0.4 Defense

115.0 ORTG, 106.0 DRTG, +8.8 Adjusted Net

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Durant OUT | (10 G, 3-7)

-3.82 SRS, -1.7 Offense, +1.6 Defense

104.9 ORTG, 107.5 DRTG, -3.3 Adjusted Net

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Dunno if there's anything to make of the Dion In/Out comparison, pretty small controlled sample for Dion OUT. Dion IN set is the same as the one that was already listed.

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Russ, Durant, Ibaka, Adams, Roberson IN | Dion OUT | (4 G, 2-2)

+10.25 SRS, +5.5 Offense, -6.8 Defense

110.7 ORTG, 101.7 DRTG

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Russ, Durant, Ibaka, Adams, Roberson IN | Dion IN | (55 G, 41-14)

+9.85 SRS, +8.7 Offense, -1.3 Defense

115.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +10.0 Adjusted Net

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Morrow/Payne IN + All Else IN, Durant IN/OUT

Also really small and controlled sample - I wouldn't take too much from this other than OKC w/Durant is really good on offense.

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All IN + Morrow, Payne IN | Durant OUT | (4 G, 2-2)

-7.11 SRS, -3.3 Offense, +0.9 Defense

103.7 ORTG, 105.5 DRTG, -4.3 Adjusted Net

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All IN + Morrow, Payne IN | Durant IN | (27 G, 25-2 :O )

+14.29 SRS, +11.8 Offense, -3.1 Defense

119.4 ORTG, 102.4 DRTG, +14.8 Adjusted Net (watch out GSW)


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Everyone else IN, Morrow IN/OUT & Payne IN/OUT (they are included in the "everyone else"). All IN sample is the same as above, so what we're really looking at here is how OKC performs when you take either Payne or Morrow out.

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All IN | (31 G, 27-4)

+14.29 SRS, +11.8 Offense, -3.1 Defense

119.4 ORTG, 102.4 DRTG, +14.8 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Payne OUT | (18 G, 10-8)

+1.69 SRS, +2.8 Offense, +1.0 Defense

108.6 ORTG, 107.4 DRTG, +1.8 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Morrow OUT | (8 G, 7-1)

+14.35 SRS, +9.3 Offense, -5.5 Defense

114.9 ORTG, 101.1 DRTG, +14.8 Adjusted Net

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