Portland - 2016 Offseason

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I'd be concerned about Turner's lack of shooting ability especially if hes going to be on the court the same time as Plumlee or Davis.

Getting to the basket is a huge part of CJ & Dame's skill set and when two players who can't shoot are on the court with them it clogs the lane and kills our offense.

If we go with Turner we would need another big that compliments him unless we're keeping Leonard around.

Yeah, the hope is he makes a similar jump to Aminu. He has a higher career 3pt% than Aminu did prior to coming here. Of course, doing the comparison I find that Turner is 2 years older than Aminu, which really surprises me for some reason.

Anyways, Turner is obviously not a perfect fit... but if he was a perfect fit, we would be talking about throwing the max at him.

[Norm2953]

Don't know why there is so much discussion on a SF when its clear PLumlee and Davis are not
going to be the long term answer and winning in the playoffs starts with defense. Every playoff
caliber team including the GSW with Bogut and Ezeli, is capable of competing in the painted area.

We need one of those 260lb bigs capable of banging bodies for every teams offense struggles for
there are no weaklings left.

[zzaj]

Don't know why there is so much discussion on a SF when its clear PLumlee and Davis are not
going to be the long term answer and winning in the playoffs starts with defense. Every playoff
caliber team including the GSW with Bogut and Ezeli, is capable of competing in the painted area.

We need one of those 260lb bigs capable of banging bodies for every teams offense struggles for
there are no weaklings left.

The reason no one is talking about Cs is that there are none that fit the age, upside, skillset and price that would be a realistic possibility for the Blazers as an upgrade. Many of the Cs that could be available are statistically about the same or marginal upgrades over both Plumlee and Davis and will be fetching a lot more money than those two are currently making.

[Norm2953]

Power big is not necessarily a traditional 7-1 260 lb center but I'm of the opinion Portland should throw
a max or near max deal at Ezeli and see if the GSW is serious about KD. Of course Ezeli would need
to be checked out physically for any offer to be issued.

[zzaj]

Power big is not necessarily a traditional 7-1 260 lb center but I'm of the opinion Portland should throw
a max or near max deal at Ezeli and see if the GSW is serious about KD. Of course Ezeli would need
to be checked out physically for any offer to be issued.

Thing is, Ezeli is about the same as Plumlee from a production standpoint. He's the same age (26) doesn't have a huge advantage in Per36 numbers, has the same offensive challenges. Just ask GSW fans about Ezeli's hands of stone. He missed a whole season and a whole bunch more games due to injury.

He offers slightly better rim protection, but as Wiz has pointed out, despite popular belief, the Blazers opp% at the rim isn't actually one of their most glaring weaknesses.

I could very well be wrong about Ezeli, and I actually hope that I am for his sake. Perhaps his injury problems are behind him and if given a starter's role he can excel. That's a HUGE gamble considering what he'll get in the current NBA market...

[Norm2953]

Ezeli's contract offer will indeed depend on his medical history and physical but he is a 6-11 255lb
power big who can play behind his opponent and would offer Portland a level of physicality we don't
have. It would be understandable if Portland passed on offering Ezeli given their history with
injured bigs but unless we want to become the Phoenix Suns teams of the 80's who won a lot of
games but were a donut team (soft in the middle), we're not going to have much cap space to
maneuver after this summer.

[Wizenheimer]

Ezeli's contract offer will indeed depend on his medical history and physical but he is a 6-11 255lb
power big who can play behind his opponent and would offer Portland a level of physicality we don't
have. It would be understandable if Portland passed on offering Ezeli given their history with
injured bigs but unless we want to become the Phoenix Suns teams of the 80's who won a lot of
games but were a donut team (soft in the middle), we're not going to have much cap space to
maneuver after this summer.

from their pre-draft measurements at DraftExpress:

Height without Shoes: Ezeli 6' 9.75"....Plumlee 6' 11.25"....Ed Davis 6' 9"
Weight: Ezeli 264....Plumlee 238....Ed Davis 227
Standing Reach: Ezeli 9' 0"....Plumlee 9' 0"....Ed Davis 9' 0"
Maximum Vertical: Ezeli 33.5"....Plumlee 36"....Ed Davis 36"

PER: Ezeli 17.7....Plumlee 17.2....Ed Davis 18.7
TS%: Ezeli .559....Plumlee .564....Ed Davis .616
FT Rate: Ezeli .579....Plumlee .648....Ed Davis .605
Blocks/36: Ezeli 2.3....Plumlee 1.5....Ed Davis 1.5
Assist Rate: Ezeli 5.8....Plumlee 16.2....Ed Davis 7.7
WinShares/48: Ezeli .171....Plumlee .140....Ed Davis .192
Defensive Box Plus/Minus: Ezeli 1.4....Plumlee 3.0....Ed Davis 2.5
Box Plus/Minus: Ezeli -0.2....Plumlee 2.8....Ed Davis 3.3
Value Over Replacement: Ezeli 0.4....Plumlee 2.5....Ed Davis 2.3

2016/17 Salary: Ezeli 15 Million?....Plumlee 2.3 million....Ed Davis 7 million

I don't know Norm. Seems like you're suggesting it would be good to pay, a lot, for a few extra pounds and about an extra blocked shot every 2 games. I'm not sure that would offset Plumlee's assists...those are pretty important to the play-maker challenged Blazers.

I'd agree that sometimes, the Blazers need a bigger body in the middle. A suggestion would be to re-sign Chris Kaman for a vet minimum or a little above. Reportedly, he loves it in Portland and he certainly is respected by his teammates. He'd likely be willing to spend another year on the Blazer bench for a couple of million dollars. Hell, I second guess Stotts and Olshey all the time for free

[Blazer50]

IMO There's too much "settling" in this tread. Marvin Williams and Evan Turner have shown their colors - I certainly believe Meyers Leonard has more potential upside than either of those guys. Hopefully, Olshey is aiming much higher. I would have like Wisenheimer's Batum / Lopez thread better if it was for Nic and Brook / as much as I liked Robin. RoLo protected the rim at the expense of the 10 footer off the P&R.

I'd still like to see the Blazers make a run at a Brook Lopez / Jahill Okafor / Hassan Whitesides / even Greg Monroe who still has upside.
On the wing scene - a DeRozan - Batum (?) - Harrison Barnes or some other potential difference maker. (Someone will come out of the woodwork as teams decide to move in other directions - sign or draft guys who make other players expendable and cap space a premium). Let's not just spend 'em cuz we got 'em! on guys who may don't improve our roster.

And no - I don't want to move a bunch of our guys to make any of these deals, but I'd have to consider the big picture on any difference makers in our age range.

[Norm2953]

Took a look at the hoopshype list of free agent centers. Forget about Drummond, Howard
or Whiteside for it would be a pipe dream to get them.

Noah is on the downside of his career and seems to be a priority of the Bulls and Al
Jefferson also seems to be on the downside. That leaves guys like Biyumbo who isn't
much bigger than Ed Davis and guys like Ezeli and Zaza Pachulia or perhaps our own
Meyers. That shoulder is likely going to impact Meyers in free agency.

It would be interesting to know how Ezeli measures out today but he's got 30+ lbs
on Ed Davis and likely 20+ lbs on Plumlee and it looks to be muscle which would allow
him to hold position on bigger centers. My guess is the GSW would likely match for
keeping a 73 win team together would be a smart move despite the costs.

Other guys we could look at are Timofey Mozgov and Nene who is 33 year old.

[Downtown]

I don't think Olshey is going to find "THE" big man via free agency this summer. He's just not there for Portland. So the question is would he entertain trading anyone other than Lillard or McCollum for a big man upgrade? Of course he would. But what level could he get in packaging some sort of combination of Davis, Plumlee, Aminu, and Vonleh in a two for one deal with a future first rounder thrown in?

It's a very tall order and perhaps it's more prudent to wait one more year for that big man to be available. I think a mid level defensive, strong centre such as a Steven Adams or Gorgei Dieng is the type they might be able to shoot for in some sort of "normal" trade. But with both being in the same division it's not likely.

[Jsun947]

Horford would be the one free agent C that I would feel really good about. I just don't think it's plausible.

Another option is trading one of Davis or Plumlee for an upgrade at SF or PF and keeping Meyers.

The only players we can really trade with them in a package though are Dame & McCollum (not going anywhere), Connaughton, Montero, Alexander (not worth anything), Vonleh (I assume worth very little), and Aminu.

Realistically can Plumlee/Davis & Aminu get us an upgrade at SF? I don't think so.

I'm on board with getting as many guys as possible that can dribble, attack, and shoot. We're really deep on one dimensional guys that don't have a full package.

I know we can't go into next season with Crabbe, Aminu, Harkless, and Henderson. One of them has to go. And if we add another player then another has to go as well. Likewise we can't go into next season with Leonard, Davis, and Plumlee.

Here is a plan I think is a possible solution. I'm just guessing at players values.

Sign Leuer around 8-10 per
Sign Fournier around 16-18 per
Resign Leonard
Renounce Robert's, Henderson, Crabbe & Harkless
Sign some smaller deals (3rd pg etc)

Lillard/CJ
CJ/Fournier
Aminu/Fournier
Leuer/Aminu/Davis
Plumlee/Leonard

Thoughts? Fournier gives is an extra ball handler and shooter. Plus he's a great spark plug off the bench.

Leuer gives us a consistent 3pt shooter and rebounder at PF. Plus he can drive off the fake and pass.

We can go with 5 three point shooters & 3 ball handlers (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Leuer, Leonard) or go small (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Aminu, Leuer) or go big (Dame, CJ, Aminu, Davis, Leonard), or go offensive inside & out (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Leuer, Davis) or go more defensive (CJ, Fournier, Aminu, Davis, Plumlee).

Gives us a ton of different line-ups & options with players I think we can actually get.

[Malapropism]

Here is an underrated (undervalued) rim protector:

Cole Aldrich

Clippers don't have a ton of money to spend on him, not to mention they have a **** of money already locked into their center position.

Aldrich averages 15/13/2 per 36 with 2 steals and 3 blocks. Shoots 60% from the field, has a 20% rebound rate and a PER of 21.3. He's also pretty mobile for a big and is a legit rim protector. Completely fits Olshey's MO of grabbing no-name undervalued free agents.

You probably also wouldn't have to bid against too many people.

[Downtown]

One guy I've been impressed with this season is Joffrey Lauverne from Denver. He seems to be a well rounded player that got off to a good start this season coming in while Nuric and Faried were out and given the minutes he produced. Later on when both players came back from injuries Lauverne was relegated to a lesser role, especially with their great young rookie Nikola Jokic( who I still think about that the Blazers could have drafted him with the 24th pick instead of trading for Plumlee) becoming so good.

Like Leuer he's somewhat under the radar but he can play both centre and power forward and perhaps could be available from Denver in some sort of trade. He's got size and mobility, along with good fundamentals that many of the European players have. He has a decent shot although not out to the three point range.

And speaking of Faried, I noticed later in the season Denver started pairing up Nuric at centre with Jokic playing power forward since he is also fairly mobile and can shoot. If the Nuggets continue to build with youth then perhaps they might entertain moving Faried and his larger contract for Vonleh and his youth and smaller deal. If Portland is looking for that impact inside presence that rebounds, plays defence, and brings lots of energy then maybe he's an option worth looking at. But again, like the examples I posted above, Denver is a division rival so I don't know if they want to deal with each other.

Just more to think about.

[blazersbucs40]

Another guy who has done well in limited action is Jeff Whithey... I believe he's under contract but hes a solid rim protector and seems to produce whenever he gets minutes.

[Wizenheimer]

Here is a plan I think is a possible solution. I'm just guessing at players values.

Sign Leuer around 8-10 per
Sign Fournier around 16-18 per
Resign Leonard
Renounce Robert's, Henderson, Crabbe & Harkless
Sign some smaller deals (3rd pg etc)

I'm sorry, but any plan that renounces Henderson, Harkless, & Crabbe, but keeps Meyers is a plan I want no part of. Yuck with capital why

Lillard/CJ
CJ/Fournier
Aminu/Fournier
Leuer/Aminu/Davis
Plumlee/Leonard

Thoughts? Fournier gives is an extra ball handler and shooter. Plus he's a great spark plug off the bench.

It will be interesting to see what Fournier's next deal is going to be because it might be a good indicator of where CJ's next deal will land; most of their advanced metrics like win shares and VORP are just about even. 16-18 million is probably a good guess, but it easily could be higher. I don't think Portland has any chance of getting him for that; Fournier is RFA and Orlando is very likely to match any contract that doesn't approach a max deal, and probably even then.

besides that, I don't like the idea of paying a bench player 18 million a year and Founier would be a lousy SF, IMO. He's a worse rebounder then CJ and a weak defender

Leuer gives us a consistent 3pt shooter and rebounder at PF. Plus he can drive off the fake and pass.

again, I don't like a roster that has both Leuer and Meyers on it, especially at the expense of Henderson, Harkless, and Crabbe.

We can go with 5 three point shooters & 3 ball handlers (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Leuer, Leonard) or go small (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Aminu, Leuer) or go big (Dame, CJ, Aminu, Davis, Leonard), or go offensive inside & out (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Leuer, Davis) or go more defensive (CJ, Fournier, Aminu, Davis, Plumlee).

3 point shooting is overrated when it comes at the expense of defense & rebounding or mobility. Portland landed on a really strong lineup at the end of the season that had Plumlee and Harkless in it as well as Aminu. That's hardly more then 2.5 three point shooters

also, IMO, there is a big difference between simple ball-handling and play-making. Fournier has a higher assisted FG rate (61.5%) then Henderson (59.5%), and it's not much lower then Harkless (63.6%). However Harkless takes 50% of his shots within 3' of the rim (Fournier 30%) and has a higher FT Rate so I'd suggest Harkless uses his ball-handling to better effect

when it comes to play-making, here's how Fournier would rank this year on the Blazer team in Assist Rate:

Damian Lillard 33.6
C.J. McCollum 21.6
Tim Frazier 21.3
Brian Roberts 18.5
Mason Plumlee 16.2
Chris Kaman 15.8
Evan Fournier 12.8
Meyers Leonard 10.6

he's better then Meyers, but that isn't saying much

I think Portland currently is a team too reliant on perimeter offense and finesse players, and too weak at perimeter defense. It sure seems what you've done is make them even more perimeter oriented on offense and even weaker in perimeter defense

[Wizenheimer]

Here is an underrated (undervalued) rim protector:

Cole Aldrich

Clippers don't have a ton of money to spend on him, not to mention they have a **** of money already locked into their center position.

Aldrich averages 15/13/2 per 36 with 2 steals and 3 blocks. Shoots 60% from the field, has a 20% rebound rate and a PER of 21.3. He's also pretty mobile for a big and is a legit rim protector. Completely fits Olshey's MO of grabbing no-name undervalued free agents.

You probably also wouldn't have to bid against too many people.

yeah, he's all those things you listed. He's under contract for next year but it's a player option so likely to opt out. I wish Stotts wasn't so dead set on playing Davis at C or against having Davis and Plumlee on the floor at the same time. Aldrich would be a 3rd wheel in that awkward rotation. If they added Aldrich, I'd say Portland would need to trade one of Plumlee/Davis. I'd prefer to keep Davis but it might come down to which player could fetch more in trade

[Malapropism]

Here is an underrated (undervalued) rim protector:

Cole Aldrich

Clippers don't have a ton of money to spend on him, not to mention they have a **** of money already locked into their center position.

Aldrich averages 15/13/2 per 36 with 2 steals and 3 blocks. Shoots 60% from the field, has a 20% rebound rate and a PER of 21.3. He's also pretty mobile for a big and is a legit rim protector. Completely fits Olshey's MO of grabbing no-name undervalued free agents.

You probably also wouldn't have to bid against too many people.

yeah, he's all those things you listed. He's under contract for next year but it's a player option so likely to opt out. I wish Stotts wasn't so dead set on playing Davis at C or against having Davis and Plumlee on the floor at the same time. Aldrich would be a 3rd wheel in that awkward rotation. If they added Aldrich, I'd say Portland would need to trade one of Plumlee/Davis. I'd prefer to keep Davis but it might come down to which player could fetch more in trade

I agree, but I think both Plumlee and Davis have a fair bit of value around the league. Worst case scenario you move them for a 1st round draft pick and slot Aldrich into their minutes. I also agree that I would rather have Davis. As it stands, Plumlee and Davis duplicate each others skillsets a bit too much but are pretty solid backup bigs.

I'm hoping people around the league haven't caught onto Aldrich. Even Chris Paul said yesterday that people don't realize it, but Aldrich can really play. If we can get him for relatively cheap (7-8 million?), it would leave us enough room to target another max FA depending on who we decide to let go. Aldrich shores up a lot of our interior defending issues.

[Jsun947]

Here is a plan I think is a possible solution. I'm just guessing at players values.

Sign Leuer around 8-10 per
Sign Fournier around 16-18 per
Resign Leonard
Renounce Robert's, Henderson, Crabbe & Harkless
Sign some smaller deals (3rd pg etc)

I'm sorry, but any plan that renounces Henderson, Harkless, & Crabbe, but keeps Meyers is a plan I want no part of. Yuck with capital why

Lillard/CJ
CJ/Fournier
Aminu/Fournier
Leuer/Aminu/Davis
Plumlee/Leonard

Thoughts? Fournier gives is an extra ball handler and shooter. Plus he's a great spark plug off the bench.

It will be interesting to see what Fournier's next deal is going to be because it might be a good indicator of where CJ's next deal will land; most of their advanced metrics like win shares and VORP are just about even. 16-18 million is probably a good guess, but it easily could be higher. I don't think Portland has any chance of getting him for that; Fournier is RFA and Orlando is very likely to match any contract that doesn't approach a max deal, and probably even then.

besides that, I don't like the idea of paying a bench player 18 million a year and Founier would be a lousy SF, IMO. He's a worse rebounder then CJ and a weak defender

Leuer gives us a consistent 3pt shooter and rebounder at PF. Plus he can drive off the fake and pass.

again, I don't like a roster that has both Leuer and Meyers on it, especially at the expense of Henderson, Harkless, and Crabbe.

We can go with 5 three point shooters & 3 ball handlers (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Leuer, Leonard) or go small (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Aminu, Leuer) or go big (Dame, CJ, Aminu, Davis, Leonard), or go offensive inside & out (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Leuer, Davis) or go more defensive (CJ, Fournier, Aminu, Davis, Plumlee).

3 point shooting is overrated when it comes at the expense of defense & rebounding or mobility. Portland landed on a really strong lineup at the end of the season that had Plumlee and Harkless in it as well as Aminu. That's hardly more then 2.5 three point shooters

also, IMO, there is a big difference between simple ball-handling and play-making. Fournier has a higher assisted FG rate (61.5%) then Henderson (59.5%), and it's not much lower then Harkless (63.6%). However Harkless takes 50% of his shots within 3' of the rim (Fournier 30%) and has a higher FT Rate so I'd suggest Harkless uses his ball-handling to better effect

when it comes to play-making, here's how Fournier would rank this year on the Blazer team in Assist Rate:

Damian Lillard 33.6
C.J. McCollum 21.6
Tim Frazier 21.3
Brian Roberts 18.5
Mason Plumlee 16.2
Chris Kaman 15.8
Evan Fournier 12.8
Meyers Leonard 10.6

he's better then Meyers, but that isn't saying much

I think Portland currently is a team too reliant on perimeter offense and finesse players, and too weak at perimeter defense. It sure seems what you've done is make them even more perimeter oriented on offense and even weaker in perimeter defense

Fournier plays a lot in a line-up with Payton & Oladipo, both of whom are ball dominant guards that don't shoot well. Fournier is on the floor to shoot, he's not going to be racking up a ton of assist. In games where Payton sat he averaged 14.8 points and 3.5 assist. Most people would consider Parsons a good passer from the small forward position and he's averaged 2.5 & 2.8 assist the last two years. His best season in Dallas he averaged 4 assist.

Fournier does start at small forward for Orlando and at 6'7 he's not that under sized. I would rather have Batum back but that ship sailed. If also rather have Parsons but I'm worried he's going to have a short injury plagued career.

Crabbe is the better shooter of the bunch, Aminu the better defender, Henderson the best at getting his own shot, and Harkless is more of a jack of all trades but none of them are good enough offensively or good enough ball handlers to take pressure off Dame or CJ.

[zzaj]

Just took a look again at the players on DX that are projected in the 2nd round.

For the cost, I would love to see AJ Hammons as that stopgap "big". He has bust potential, but he really upped his game this past year. There also are plenty of SF and SG prospects that could potentially give the Blazers similar production as Crabbe and Vonleh. I'm thinking guys like: Brice Johnson (17/10.5/35.3 PER), Chris Lavert 6'7" PG/SG (16.5/5.5/5/28.8 PER), even GPIII 6'3" PG (16/8/5/2.5stls) as a 3rd PG would be a pretty great addition.

Again, production/cost differential in the NBA is at an alltime "weird". I think it'd be smart for the Blazers to try and mine unguaranteed, second round talent. Shoot, ANY kind of draft talent is going to be good to have. I still believe those contracts are going to be like gold.

[Jstock12]

Howard to the Blazers would be interesting. Would you sign Howard to a 16-18 mil/year contract?