'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

RSCD3_ · Post #261 » by **RSCD3_** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 11:42 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:A question coming to my mind now:

When would the Warriors dominating without Curry really start to change how you saw Green and others?

Them doing what they're doing to Houston doesn't change things that much for me because Houston isn't simply mediocre, but is also in a dark place. But if the Warriors could destroy a healthy Clipper team without Curry that would blow my hair back.

I can't see Chris Paul letting such a chance at the WCF slip away. I would favor the clippers, in a tough series but my gut says no curry = clippers in 6

therealbig3 · Post #262 » by **therealbig3** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:44 am

Doctor MJ wrote:A question coming to my mind now:

When would the Warriors dominating without Curry really start to change how you saw Green and others?

Them doing what they're doing to Houston doesn't change things that much for me because Houston isn't simply mediocre, but is also in a dark place. But if the Warriors could destroy a healthy Clipper team without Curry that would blow my hair back.

If they beat the Clippers on Green's back, without Curry, then I would officially be on the Draymond Green bandwagon.

Of course, that means a lot of people might be made quite uncomfortable, because Green deserves to be compared to people that are traditionally seen as much better. For example, when does a peak KG vs Green comparison become legit? Is it legit already?

Post #263 » by **Doctor MJ** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:28 am

therealbig3 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:A question coming to my mind now:

When would the Warriors dominating without Curry really start to change how you saw Green and others?

Them doing what they're doing to Houston doesn't change things that much for me because Houston isn't simply mediocre, but is also in a dark place. But if the Warriors could destroy a healthy Clipper team without Curry that would blow my hair back.

If they beat the Clippers on Green's back, without Curry, then I would officially be on the Draymond Green bandwagon.

Of course, that means a lot of people might be made quite uncomfortable, because Green deserves to be compared to people that are traditionally seen as much better. For example, when does a peak KG vs Green comparison become legit? Is it legit already?

Yup, and my answer is a firm "I dunno".

Jim Naismith · Post #264 » by **Jim Naismith** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:28 am

RSCD3_ wrote:I can't see Chris Paul letting such a chance at the WCF slip away.

2014 says hi. 2015 too.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFZrg8gX3zg[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cS-4u6LkW7A[/youtube]

therealbig3 · Post #265 » by **therealbig3** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:34 am

If we're being fair, Curry can't really be in the conversation for POY if he doesn't play enough in the playoffs. And it's not enough if when he does play, he plays subpar (might be understandable because of his injury, but it still means he didn't play well in the playoffs, which is definitely a mark against him).

Unfortunately, I feel like his injury pretty much takes him out of the running for GOAT season. You can't miss an entire round+ and still be compared to LeBron or Jordan or Shaq, when those guys never missed entire rounds of playoff series before.

Post #266 » by **Doctor MJ** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:51 am

therealbig3 wrote:If we're being fair, Curry can't really be in the conversation for POY if he doesn't play enough in the playoffs. And it's not enough if when he does play, he plays subpar (might be understandable because of his injury, but it still means he didn't play well in the playoffs, which is definitely a mark against him).

Unfortunately, I feel like his injury pretty much takes him out of the running for GOAT season. You can't miss an entire round+ and still be compared to LeBron or Jordan or Shaq, when those guys never missed entire rounds of playoff series before.

Re: GOAT. Well for me as long as it doesn't impact future rounds, it won't be something that keeps Curry from GOAT-land. It's not strange that the Warriors can handle the 8th seed without him, and while he is injured, part of the reason the Warriors held him out is that they didn't take their opponent that seriously.

I'm with you on the general point though I think, and that's before even considering that there's a good chance he won't be 100% when he starts the next series.

Re: POY. Somewhat similar but more slack here. If Curry ends deservedly winning the Finals MVP, it would be hard to imagine how someone else would get the POY vote over him on my ballot. I'm not saying it's logically impossible, it just seems highly unlikely that he won't have a better case when compared to each of the other major candidates.

Post #267 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 2:26 am

Simple question, which is merely just a feeling right now: is this the best clippers team of the Paul era?

[EDIT - their highest SRS was in 13-14, but i'm just talking as currently constructed in the playoffs]

HeartBreakKid · Post #268 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 2:49 am

Clyde Frazier wrote:Simple question, which is merely just a feeling right now: is this the best clippers team of the Paul era?

Best defense, not sure if you can say it's the best team because Blake Griffin isn't playing well.

At one point they had BG and a good back up in Darren Collison, I would say that was the best Clipper team.

Post #269 » by **bondom34** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:13 am

As far as OKC goes, Westbrook has lengthened the lead over Durant. He's been nearly CP level good this far. One bad-ish game but overall really dominant against poor competition, which isn't enough to change my ballot so far.

Post #270 » by **Doctor MJ** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:30 pm

Food for thought:

1. Say that in the end the truth is that Curry has more impact against elite teams when at 100% but that on average Green has more impact over the course of the year, and that when Curry comes back he's not 100% but the Warriors still have just enough to win a title playing in a way that it seems entirely plausible to you that Green was the most impactful player through the playoffs.

Is there any fundamental reason why Green wouldn't possibly deserve the #1 spot in our POY?

2. While I think pretty much all of us still believe LeBron is more capable than Green, when we talk about LeBron ranking ahead of Green in the final POY, aren't we largely assuming that hits final form in the playoffs? From a POY voting perspective that might seem moot, but most people have LeBron comfortably ahead of Green right now despite the fact that Green had essentially a dream season and LeBron had all sorts of issues. While I'm not saying LeBron wasn't still a top 5 guy in the regular season, if the Cav season ends with LeBron not trusting teammates, pouting on the flour, and sending out passive aggressive tweets like he did in the regular season aren't we going to hold that against him something fierce?

Post #271 » by **bondom34** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:35 pm

Personally, I don't hold anything against a player if they're performing on court. To this point, Lebron has been better than anyone I have over him to me on court this season, and his team has been successful because of it. The only way I'll hold anything against him is if it somehow leaked on to the court and resulted in losses, which I don't foresee happening. The analogy doesn't totally fit, but somewhat, that to me Green is a guy born on 3rd base who looks like he's ready to score a run. Lebron's under a much bigger spotlight and to this point has just been the better player.

Dr Spaceman · Post #272 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 2:24 pm

I haven't posted my POY ballot yet, mostly because I've been thinking and watching and thinking more than anything, but I'm starting to feel a little more confident now.

1. (T) Stephen Curry/Draymond Green - If it seems like a cop-out, that's because it is. I've been twisting my brain into knots trying to split these two, and coming up blank. So I'm just not going to do it until I think I've seen enough. However it's happening, though, this is the greatest single-season duo in NBA history, pretty comfortably IMO, and that matters a lot. 73 wins, obscene dominance, clear title favorites, and both have been so dominant in their own right I don't think anyone else has a good argument for #1. I'm tying them together purposefully, it just feels right.

Re: Draymond vs. the field; at this point the only way I could argue anyone over Draymond is if I believed the following statement: "Player X is worse at his role than Draymond is at his role, but player X's role is so much more important that he deserves the nod over Draymond". I just don't believe that, and while that's certainly conventional wisdom that doesn't mean it's correct and that there is any evidence for it (and 73 wins disagrees :wink:

). And once you take that qualifier out of the equation, I really fail to see the argument for anyone else. Truly, I went back and debated each of the other players in my top 5 vs. Draymond, to try to convince myself they should rank over him. I couldn't do it. If box score stats are really your thing, then I get it, but if you believe as I do that they cover only a sliver of the overall player goodness spectrum and if you believe as I do that players should be judged based on their performance of the role they're given, Draymond just looks unbeatable against everyone but his teammate.

I fell into this trap, just like most people I see, of searching for Draymond's flaws and digging for reasons he cant be the best player in the league. But think for a second about what he can do. He benefits Curry almost just a much and Curry benefits him, if not more so. Draymond gives you the flexibility to literally take a scorer and say "focus on nothing but finding good shots for yourself. If you don't have a shot, give it to Draymond, who will take care of everything else, and just run around off-ball looking for an opening and creating chaos". I mean what is the ceiling of that offense? Who else could you plug in for Curry and still get best-in-league (not necessarily GOAT) results? How freaking good could Kevin Durant be if you gave him this type of freedom?

Do I think Draymond is the best player in the league in terms of "absolute goodness?" Maybe, but probably not. But I can't see an argument for him being out of the top 6-8. He's basically LeBron if LeBron outsourced his scoring. That's a freaking dominant player, and when you start to add up everything he does at a best-in-league level it starts to get scary.

And I really think this kind of thing is overstated anyway. Nic Batum was the best player on a good playoff team this season. Dirk Nowitzki did as well, and he's not even as good as Draymond on offense. Paul Millsap led a top 4 playoff seed, and he doesn't have ran argument over Draymond in an "absolute goodness" sense. I really, really don't think teams need a "star" as much as everyone thinks they do. Paul George and James Harden led the 8th seeds in both conferences this year. Anthony Davis missed the playoffs.

If Draymond leads the Warriors to be seriously competitive with, or even better than, the Clippers, and Curry is able to come back and they win the title, Draymond could absoilutely be my POY.

3. Kawhi Leonard
4. Kevin Durant
5. LeBron James

I don't see a lot of separation in this group, and I kind of ranked them haphazardly, but it's all going to be in flux during the playoffs. I honestly expect LeBron to move into the #3 spot on the strength of his playoffs, but it's not a given. Durant is the most likely to fall out of this group,m and I still haven't decided how I feel about him vs. Westbrook.

HM: Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook. Paul has been so damn good this season and I feel awful for leaving him out, but there's not really room for him yet. He absolutely ahead room to move up though.

Mutnt · Post #273 » by **Mutnt** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 4:57 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:A question coming to my mind now:

When would the Warriors dominating without Curry really start to change how you saw Green and others?

Them doing what they're doing to Houston doesn't change things that much for me because Houston isn't simply mediocre, but is also in a dark place. But if the Warriors could destroy a healthy Clipper team without Curry that would blow my hair back.

The thing is, I think the Warriors just have the personnel that can, with multiple parties, make up for what Curry brings to the table easier than making up for the absence of Green.

Most of Curry's impact primarily comes from being able to be insanely good at scoring, both volume and efficiency wise. With Curry out though, the Warriors still have plenty of guys that are capable of picking up most of the voided scoring onus. The first guy is obviously Klay. There's no three point shooter better than Curry in the league, but if you're looking for the next guy in line to bring that rapid canon threat from outside, it's ironically his teammate, although based on the first 4 games he hasn't really been picking up the scoring slack. He does seem to be more actively looking to make plays though, which makes sense. Next one is Iggy. Iggy is one of the most complete offensive players in the league. With Curry out, he can easily take a chunk of his scoring, playmaking responsibilities and he's doing just that wonderfully against the Rockets. The real unsung hero right now is Mo Speights. He's like a C version of JR Smith. These type of players are never discouraged to shoot when they're open. Historically it hasn't really worked out for Speights, but if he can get hot (like he is right now) he's a guy that can give you 10-15 ppg in the absence of your best scorer. Then obviously Draymond Green. He's another guy that can and will be looking to be a more active scorer/playmaker in Curry's absence. Shaun Livingston is another one. He's what you would likely call the opposite of Curry's style/skillset but with his height & smarts, he can punish people in the post and in transition. Right now he's stepped up a lot, especially as a playmaker...

So like I said, The Warriors just have players that, one by one, can make up for Curry's absence a lot easier than if they lost Green. Who do the Warriors have to replace an elite defender with an all-around versatile offensive game from the C/PF position? No one. Barnes can't do that. Speights can't do that. Ezeli can't do that. Bogut for sure can't do that. In that sense, Green might be more valuable for the Warriors than Curry.

Now, the real catch comes against elite defenses. That's when you really miss your best and most versatile offensive player (which in the Warriors case is Curry without any doubt). I'm not really confident in the Clippers to get any job done for obvious reasons, but I fully expect the Spurs to demolish the Warriors if Curry ends up sitting, or playing limited, in that series. No way do the Spurs allow players with limited offensive skillsets or one-trick-ponies like Speights to go off on them. They also got Kawhi to put the clamps on Klay and Iggy, possibly Green to.

But before I get to ahead of myself, I expect the Warriors vs. Clippers (without Curry) to be quite evenly matched. I don't see any destruction to be ushered by either side, but I would favor the Warriors to take it in 6,7 games.

MisterHibachi · Post #274 » by **MisterHibachi** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:41 pm

I really don't see the Warriors beating the Clippers without Curry. I think it goes 5 at most if Curry misses the whole series.

Post #275 » by **Doctor MJ** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:55 pm

bondom34 wrote:Personally, I don't hold anything against a player if they're performing on court. To this point, Lebron has been better than anyone I have over him to me on court this season, and his team has been successful because of it. The only way I'll hold anything against him is if it somehow leaked on to the court and resulted in losses, which I don't foresee happening. The analogy doesn't totally fit, but somewhat, that to me Green is a guy born on 3rd base who looks like he's ready to score a run. Lebron's under a much bigger spotlight and to this point has just been the better player.

Ah, reasonable response. I didn't mean to imply that I'd be holding back on LeBron just because he rubbed me the wrong way. What I mean is that while LeBron had big impact all year, there's really nothing to indicate it's clearly more impact than someone like Green or Kawhi. However all of us I think tend to think that LeBron can kick it to another gear that puts him clearly beyond those other guys, and my point is really that us giving him the benefit of the doubt on that front as we speak now also puts the onus on him to actually pull that off.

If at the end of the playoffs it still feels like LeBron isn't able to get the most out of his teammates, then I don't think there should be anything hard & fast about putting him ahead of those other guys given that those guys are awe-inspiring particularly because of how they've evolved their game to give maximum value to a great team and my concern about LeBron right now is that he is NOT doing that.

Post #276 » by **bondom34** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:59 pm

Makes sense to me Doc, I've got him at 4 right now, and until/if he makes a playoff leap I'll react accordingly, but so far nothing has really changed much after 1 round of the playoffs. No performances have been good or bad enough to shift much.

Post #277 » by **Texas Chuck** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 7:26 pm

I get what Doc is saying and speaking solely in theory I agree. But just like I was saying last year---Lebron just keeps getting it done. Regardless of what teammates are left standing and how they are playing, the East has gone through Lebron for 5 years and counting now. I tend to think Doc is right in his belief that a team with Lebron James has a lower ceiling than some of his peers(albeit with maybe the highest floor of all-time?). But his team didn't deserve to beat the Warriors or the Spurs(2x--tho they did beat them once), and were close to a push against Dallas. I think we have at times unrealistic expectations of team results for Lebron when in reality for the most part his teams are only getting eliminated by teams clearly better than his(or very veteran laden teams better than their record/SRS suggests(11 Mavs, 10 Celtics. I mean the loss in 09 to the Magic is the closest thing to a poor team result Lebron has in the playoffs.

I'm not a fan of the guy and I recognize some of these same flaws you do, but its a results business and he seems to find a way to take his team at least as far as their talent should take them and frequently further.

MisterHibachi · Post #278 » by **MisterHibachi** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 7:26 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Personally, I don't hold anything against a player if they're performing on court. To this point, Lebron has been better than anyone I have over him to me on court this season, and his team has been successful because of it. The only way I'll hold anything against him is if it somehow leaked on to the court and resulted in losses, which I don't foresee happening. The analogy doesn't totally fit, but somewhat, that to me Green is a guy born on 3rd base who looks like he's ready to score a run. Lebron's under a much bigger spotlight and to this point has just been the better player.

Ah, reasonable response. I didn't mean to imply that I'd be holding back on LeBron just because he rubbed me the wrong way. What I mean is that while LeBron had big impact all year, there's really nothing to indicate it's clearly more impact than someone like Green or Kawhi. However all of us I think tend to think that LeBron can kick it to another gear that puts him clearly beyond those other guys, and my point is really that us giving him the benefit of the doubt on that front as we speak now also puts the onus on him to actually pull that off.

If at the end of the playoffs it still feels like LeBron isn't able to get the most out of his teammates, then I don't think there should be anything hard & fast about putting him ahead of those other guys given that those guys are awe-inspiring particularly because of how they've evolved their game to give maximum value to a great team and my concern about LeBron right now is that he is NOT doing that.

Have you taken a look at the numbers SSB has posted recently in the LeBron thread? Because those numbers indicate that's exactly what LeBron's doing.

Limited sample size but it's part of a larger picture that says LeBron's not the problem in Cleveland:

SideshowBob wrote:Since Jan. 1

Lebron + Love | No Irving (318 MP, 613 Poss)

128.5 ORTG ( ), 105.2 DRTG, +23.3 Net

Lebron + Love + Smith | No Irving (240 MP, 465 Poss)

132.2 ORTG, 101.7 DRTG, +30.5 Net

Lebron + Love + Smith + Thompson | No Irving (114 MP, 223 Poss)

135.4 ORTG, 97.3 DRTG, +38.1 Net

Lebron ON | Kyrie, Love ON (114 MP, 202 Poss)

122.8 ORTG, 110.9 DRTG, +11.9 Net

Cavs: 57.5% TS, 11.4% TO

Lebron OFF | Kyrie, Love ON (16 MP, 30 Poss)

103.3 ORTG, 140.0 DRTG, -36.7 Net

Cavs: 47.7% TS, 10.0% TO

And I really enjoyed his approach to the Detroit series. He's struggled in scoring against them all year, only averaged 20 points in 50 TS% against them in 3 games, so he contributed massively in other areas, he was their best defensive player and he opened up so many shooters with his screen setting and roll pressure. Very limited sample size, but in the playoffs so far he's providing a 36.4 per 100 improvement to the defense. There's a very clear distinction in the way LeBron plays when he's on court with Delly vs with Kyrie, and the difference isn't really caused by his own skill set limitations (which he certainly has at this point in his career), but rather the floor skills of the point guard he's playing with. So I'm not sure if I buy the line of thinking that LeBron is the one holding his team back. Rather, he's pushing the ceiling of the team much much higher than it should be.

MisterHibachi · Post #279 » by **MisterHibachi** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:50 pm

Interesting stuff from reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/clevelandcavs/comments/4g4jws/lebron_vs_kawhi_defensive_player_tracking/

Spoiler:

lorak · Post #280 » by **lorak** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 9:18 pm

^
Kawhi usually defends better plyers than LeBron, so that makes such comparisons kind of pointless.