Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Wizenheimer]

It's not technically "offseason", but I sure think Tobias Harris would look pretty good in a Blazers uniform right about now. I wanted him back when those rumors were swirling, and I'd like him now.

I know many here weren't interested in him, but he'd be a pretty clear upgrade over any SF/PF that the Blazers have. He's about what Mo Harkless' ceiling is.

I didn't understand why Orlando seemed willing to move him. Jennings and Ilyasova didn't seem like a great return unless Orlando was having buyer's remorse about the contract they gave Harris. Orlando fan were talking like the Magic wanted to clear room for Aaron Gordon at SF with a little time for Fournier there as well

in any event, I think Harris is staying in Detroit for a while. Reportedly, Stan Van Gundy really likes Harris and was working hard to get him to Detroit. He won't be trading him any time soon

by the way, did you know that Harris was drafted #19 by Charlotte in 2011? The same draft they picked Kemba Walker at #9. Charlotte got that extra pick by trading Gerald Wallace to Portland. Harris could have been a Blazer!!

[Norm2953]

Let's see on day 1 of free agency how many max contract offers NO hands out. If we're thinking
about the Cole Aldrich's of the world, we might be better off with a modified version of the
rebuild via the draft plan for its really stupid to overpay for mediocre talents.

[Joshumitsu]

Settling for a Cole Aldrich type = mediocre first round exits for the next 4-5 years.

If Blazers want to win, they need to make moves now and next year in order to gel/mesh the team with Lillard's prime years. These are the only two years to decide. Otherwise, the Warriors, Cavs, Spurs, and Durant's team aren't going to stop anytime soon. Then, you got the Wolves, Lakers, Suns, and Pelicans coming up. Each of those young teams has a chance of drafting a future star this summer that will change their fortunes.

So Blazers have to choose wisely what they want to do or else waste Lillard's prime years for nothing.

My view is that the Blazers should drag away Barnes from the Warriors, thus weakening the competition and gaining a good defender+decent shooter. Imo, all he needs is slightly more usage to become efficient again, which Portland can offer.

They also need Horford or some other center. Might just be me but I'd even settle on Dwight Howard if we could get him for cheap. His personality calls for the right leader to lead him. Someone not too serious (no Kobe) but not a lazy bum either (no Harden). A guy like Lillard who is relaxed but stone cold would shape him up. Plus, he'll grab rebounds.

Also, Blazers should draft Sabonis somehow. It may be heresy to say this but I really would trade Vonleh for him.

Why? We need an enforcer. I think Sabonis is both physically tough and a passionate player, which would put him in a role similar to Mathews or Green. Other players will rally behind that. Plus, he has a decent shot and the potential to get better every year. Most importantly, he is already a very good rebounder.

Again, I specifically emphasize rebounds because the Blazers with CJ+Lillard have high usage just to generate their offense (which is primarily jump shots). They need rebounds to compliment the potentially high volume of misses. In that sense, strong rebounders who can take beatings/bully other players in the paint are important to the makeup of this team.

[Norm2953]

I'd like to see Portland pick up a 2016 #1 pick from a team like the Celtics who have 8 picks
in the 2016 draft. If they like someone who can be had in the middle or late first round, they
can offer up one of their 2018 #1 picks (lottery protected) for the lesser of the Celtics picks.

[zzaj]

If I'm Olshey:

Try and trade CJ/Vonleh/Aminu for Jahlil Okafor and Kendall Marshall (wishful thinking, I know).
Try and sign Ryan Anderson
Try and sign Jordan Hill (good suggestion Wiz)
Try and sign Evan Turner
Resign Henderson
Buy two second rounders and draft AJ Hammons and GP3
Let Meyers and Crabbe walk.

Lillard/GP3/Marshall
Henderson/Turner
Turner/Harkless
Anderson/Davis
Okafor/Plumlee/Hill/Hammons

[Wizenheimer]

Settling for a Cole Aldrich type = mediocre first round exits for the next 4-5 years.

If Blazers want to win, they need to make moves now and next year in order to gel/mesh the team with Lillard's prime years. These are the only two years to decide. Otherwise, the Warriors, Cavs, Spurs, and Durant's team aren't going to stop anytime soon. Then, you got the Wolves, Lakers, Suns, and Pelicans coming up. Each of those young teams has a chance of drafting a future star this summer that will change their fortunes.

So Blazers have to choose wisely what they want to do or else waste Lillard's prime years for nothing.

I'm not sure the Blazers will have 2 years to make moves, at least not making moves with cap-space. Meyers-Crabbe-Harkess-Henderson are all free agents this summer and Portland's cap-space will take a big hit if, for instance, 3 of the 4 are resigned. And of course if the Blazers do sign a high level free agent, that will probably take 20 million of of 2017 cap-space. Finally, the tea leaves suggest Olshey absolutely loves CJ...if Olshey loses his mind and agrees to re-sign CJ to a massive extension, all 2017 space would be gone anyway. So, it may very well be this summer or purgatory

My view is that the Blazers should drag away Barnes from the Warriors, thus weakening the competition and gaining a good defender+decent shooter. Imo, all he needs is slightly more usage to become efficient again, which Portland can offer.

I pretty much dislike the idea of going after a RFA. Those first 3 days after the moratorium are crucial and having a big chunk of space waiting on a team certain to take the maximum time to match is high risk. Besides, I think Barnes is going to get a max or near max offer and it would likely take that to create any chance the Warriors don't offer

Also, Blazers should draft Sabonis somehow. It may be heresy to say this but I really would trade Vonleh for him.

Why? We need an enforcer. I think Sabonis is both physically tough and a passionate player, which would put him in a role similar to Mathews or Green. Other players will rally behind that. Plus, he has a decent shot and the potential to get better every year. Most importantly, he is already a very good rebounder.

I don't have a problem with that. But looking at various mock drafts, Sabonis is predicted to go from #7 to #23...yikes! that's a big spread. Portland might have a chance of landing a pick in the early 20's although I'd imagine they'd pay a high price for it. I can't see them having the asset(s) to land a lottery pick unless they made CJ available.

They also need Horford or some other center. Might just be me but I'd even settle on Dwight Howard if we could get him for cheap. His personality calls for the right leader to lead him. Someone not too serious (no Kobe) but not a lazy bum either (no Harden). A guy like Lillard who is relaxed but stone cold would shape him up. Plus, he'll grab rebounds.

again, I specifically emphasize rebounds because the Blazers with CJ+Lillard have high usage just to generate their offense (which is primarily jump shots). They need rebounds to compliment the potentially high volume of misses. In that sense, strong rebounders who can take beatings/bully other players in the paint are important to the makeup of this team.

so, it seems you're pointing at offensive rebounding ability as a prime requirement for a C upgrade. Here are the free agent big men this summer and where they rank in offensive rebounding rate compare to Portland's duo:

1 Boban Marjanovic, SA 16.9 (RFA)
2 Enes Kanter, OKC 16.7 (not free agent but OKC is rumored to be shopping him...can't defend a chair)
3 Thomas Robinson, BKN 16.4 (been there, done that)
6 Joakim Noah, CHI 14.7 (kind of intriguing...is he done? but his rebounding, defense, and passing are very good)
7 Ed Davis, POR 14.4 (we all like him but is he expendable in trade?)
10 Zaza Pachulia, DAL 13.7 (certainly fits the rugged physical mold)
11 Festus Ezeli, GS 13.5 (too extensive an injury history IMO)
13 Robin Lopez, NY 13.4 (another player rumored to be on the trading block and he's Portland weird)
14 Hassan Whiteside, MIA 13.1 (incredible numbers but signing him could get a GM fired)
20 David Lee, BOS/DAL 12.0 (another low defense big and not a C, although maybe that's good)
20 Cole Aldrich, LAC 11.9 (lateral move)
25 Bismack Biyombo, TOR 11.7 (lateral move)
27 Dwight Howard, HOU 11.4 (big risk here and unlikely to want to be in Portland)
31 Jordan Hill, IND 11.3 (I like his versatility & his mid-range game. Solid defender and rebounder)
35 Greg Monroe, MIL 10.9 (he's already rejected Portland but the Bucks are rumored to be shopping him)
41 Mason Plumlee, POR 10.4 (the guy so many want to upgrade from)

[Norm2953]

If I'm Olshey:

Try and trade CJ/Vonleh/Aminu for Jahlil Okafor and Kendall Marshall (wishful thinking, I know).
Try and sign Ryan Anderson
Try and sign Jordan Hill (good suggestion Wiz)
Try and sign Evan Turner
Resign Henderson
Buy two second rounders and draft AJ Hammons and GP3
Let Meyers and Crabbe walk.

Lillard/GP3/Marshall
Henderson/Turner
Turner/Harkless
Anderson/Davis
Okafor/Plumlee/Hill/Hammons

Philly and Portland have been linked together for some time and any deal will depend on how the Sixers
fare in the lottery. If they fail to get either 1-2, their new GM might very well push for a CJ deal for
they are getting tired of losing.

I'd like the team to get a physical presence, especially if the team opts for a long term Dame/CJ
back court. Portland's free agents are not irreplaceable so if the team can let Rolo, Wes and
move Nic last summer, they can allow Gerald, Meyers, Crabbe and Harkless walk as well meaning
this summer, we'll have another stab at tanking for the 2017 draft.

[Blazinaway]

I was thinking of Gorgui Dieng from Minny who has a nice mid range game, depending on who they draft and with Thibs coming in it will be interesting if he is available, seems like he might be a good fit and perhaps could be had reasonably

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Speaking of Philly, I would love to try and get Saric from them. I think he's going to be a player and several of their fans on the T&T board thought he may be available as the team cuts ties with the Hinkie era.

I'm sure the asking price would be McCollum, and I'm not sure if the Blazers would go for that (significant risk on top of a guaranteed step back) but it could be interesting if we can talk them down or add something reasonable to get a package deal with another of their bigs.

[Wizenheimer]

Speaking of Philly, I would love to try and get Saric from them. I think he's going to be a player and several of their fans on the T&T board thought he may be available as the team cuts ties with the Hinkie era.

I'm sure the asking price would be McCollum, and I'm not sure if the Blazers would go for that (significant risk on top of a guaranteed step back) but it could be interesting if we can talk them down or add something reasonable to get a package deal with another of their bigs.

I've been pretty outspoken on the belief that a long-term starting back-court of Lillard & CJ has a cap on how good it can be, especially when factoring in what CJ's next contract is likely to look like

but I sure would be reluctant to trade him for a euro-player....Blazers haven't had much success with those. Other then Sabonis (who was special) only Batum really, although Drazen ended up being really good, unfortunately not in Portland. I don't trust scouting reports on euro players at all. Saric sounds promising, but so did Rudy.

I'd be fine with a CJ for Noel or Okafor deal, not Saric. But I doubt the Blazers have anything else that the 76ers would be interested in. Maybe Aminu and a future pick? seems light

[Downtown]

I was reading on the trades board where some Magic fans don't seem to want Vucevic and would like to move him, and not for a lot. I have to wonder if there's a possibility of trading for him without giving up McCollum in a package? I know Plumlee has been playing well and I'm proud of him but Vucevic is still a sizeable upgrade in my opinion.

And after watching Boston last night I still think Evan Turner would be a great addition as a versatile player that can be inserted in a number of situations. But I like the effort that all the Celtic players are giving. Maybe it's the home court but they have really turned it up the last two games with a similar effort that the Blazers gave the other night.

[zzaj]

Speaking of Philly, I would love to try and get Saric from them. I think he's going to be a player and several of their fans on the T&T board thought he may be available as the team cuts ties with the Hinkie era.

I'm sure the asking price would be McCollum, and I'm not sure if the Blazers would go for that (significant risk on top of a guaranteed step back) but it could be interesting if we can talk them down or add something reasonable to get a package deal with another of their bigs.

I've been pretty outspoken on the belief that a long-term starting back-court of Lillard & CJ has a cap on how good it can be, especially when factoring in what CJ's next contract is likely to look like

but I sure would be reluctant to trade him for a euro-player....Blazers haven't had much success with those. Other then Sabonis (who was special) only Batum really, although Drazen ended up being really good, unfortunately not in Portland. I don't trust scouting reports on euro players at all. Saric sounds promising, but so did Rudy.

I'd be fine with a CJ for Noel or Okafor deal, not Saric. But I doubt the Blazers have anything else that the 76ers would be interested in. Maybe Aminu and a future pick? seems light

I posted my above trade (CJ/Vonleh/Aminu for Okafor/Marshall on the Philly trade board and every answer was "yes". One poster said that they would just do CJ/Vonleh for Okafor which I'd be more inclined to do, because I think Aminu has some value as a defender.

If the Blazers could land Okafor, sign someone like Evan Turner and resign Gerald Henderson I think the resulting team would be better than this year's team. It would also be dodging the bullet on CJ's pay raise.

But I think I share your belief that a Lillard/CJ backcourt is too limited defensively and probably won't be sniffing a championship any time soon. Unfortunately, I don't think Olshey shares that belief and probably over values CJ by quite a bit...

[skoharry]

portland gets blake griffin, nyk9 gets cj/mason/w.johnson, and LAC gets melo. if we forgoe inside for outside scoring, nyk goes into rebuild, and paul still wants to play with melo, plus melo agrees to the trade...then i think all 3 do it.
then we resign harkless and crabbe
sign dedmon or biyombo to be our defensive stopper startin c....plus they would be cheap
sign bazemore or stephenson to be our startin sg[yes stephenson. i think him & dame would play well together. plus he does play good D and we are becoming the give guys a 2nd chance team]
sign galloway or delladova to backup dame
sign someone like t.booker, jason smith, or john luer to backup griffin[vonleh still needs some work]

so if i had a choice the roster would look like so
dame/delladova/montero
bazemore/crabbe/connaughton
aminu/harkless
griffin/leuer/vonleh/cliff
dedmon/davis

[Norm2953]

The surge in Plumlee's games makes me wonder if after a summer program with a lot of
individual workouts with assistant coaches, if his offensive game can be brought along.
Likely he'll never be a scorer but he's now a decent FT shooter for a big, can handle the
ball and if he can make an open FT line jumper his worth to the team might make him
'desirable for the team to extend him first over CJ.

[Case2012]

The surge in Plumlee's games makes me wonder if after a summer program with a lot of
individual workouts with assistant coaches, if his offensive game can be brought along.
Likely he'll never be a scorer but he's now a decent FT shooter for a big, can handle the
ball and if he can make an open FT line jumper his worth to the team might make him
'desirable for the team to extend him first over CJ.

I've been saying for a while that Mason could be this teams Draymond Green, although with his horrible Offense he's more like Joakim Noah. If i was Stotts I would have him shoot nothing but mid range jumpers in the off season, like 500 a day. He would be a triple double machine if he could hit elbow jumpers and a layup once in a while.

I really hope we land Barnes, we've been lucky with Aminu hitting 3s while the defense leaves him alone, but Teams would have to respect Barnes outside more than Harkless and Aminu, opening things up more for CJ and Dame.

[Epicurus]

Plumlee with a dependable 10-15 ft jumper would be the second coming of Alvin Adams (somewhat bigger). I believe that Plumlee is from Indiana. All guys from Indiana can make a jump shot from birth.

[DusterBuster]

I still don't understand the CJ to Philly for one of their C's fascination at all.

[Oneluckbox]

After Plumlee's stellar play so far in the Clips series, I've definitely changed my mind a bit on the 'need' for another C. Though I would LOVE someone like Whiteside (pipe-dream but meh) or someone like Horford, Plumlee has played well enough to justify him being the starting C in my eyes. I know its only 1 series but man he's outplayed DAJ so much, when many of us thought he would get destroyed. If he could work on his offensive game over the summer, specifically working on his jumper from 12-15, he would be legit. Probably overacting a tad but the need for a starting C is less pressing. Still do need a reliable backup one though.

So I suppose that shifts the focus to the forwards. Idk about you lads but I REALLY like what Moe has done in the last couple of months. Hes still only 22 as well. I mean everyone is saying to go for Harrison Barnes. Maybe the Blazers should just go with Moe instead? Would be a lot cheaper, plus if he just worked on his outside game a decent amount I don't see him being THAT much worse than Barnes, maybe even on par with him at some point?

Maybe that means the PF spot is the most pressing issue? Aminu played and shot pretty good for the final portion of the season, but he had been decidedly average in the playoffs up until G4 against the Clips. Pretty inconsistent. I know he rebounds well and defends pretty good, but he can have those nights where hes an absolute brick artist or makes a tonne of stupid decisions. I always look at Ryan Anderson as an option but his last few years and injury history do concern me a little. Maybe even Marvin Williams?

So I suppose what im saying is let this group see what they can do in the next couple of years. Get a 3rd playmaker (Turner or maybe Ish Smith???), a backup center (Biyombo/Aldrich/Ezeli) and resign Harkless, Crabbe and potentially old man Henderson. I would be keen to see how this group progresses in the future.

Let's just hope KD doesn't go to GSW though cause then its over for EVERYONE

[Masterfully]

Dirk Nowitzki is the hero we deserve.

[Fitz303]

Dirk Nowitzki is the hero we deserve.

Was just coming in here to post about this. He has been much more noncommittal about his future in Dallas in the last month. Basically it's on the Mavs to decide if they want to keep trying to make one last push, or if they want to blow it up. If they blow it up, Dirk is gone. With the need for a PF upgrade, Stotts' history with Dirk, and plenty of money to spend, it might be a match made in heaven. We'd only get about 2 years of him, but he would be just about as perfect of a fit as we could ask for. This would also allow Vonleh some time to grow into the position, while learning from an all time great. An unlikely scenario, for sure, but an intriguing one nonetheless.