'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[Dr Spaceman]

So far Draymond has a net rating of +26.3 in the playoffs, slightly higher than his RS rating of +25.6. GSW has a 115.1 ORTG and 88.8 DRTG with him on court.
Other Warriors:

Klay: +13.8 net, 113.8 OFF, 90.1 DEF
Curry: +11.7 net, 111.8 OFF, 82.1 DEF
Bogut: +14.3 net, 115.6 OFF, 86.5 DEF
Livingston: +12.6 net, 118.9 OFF, 97.5 DEF

[Dr Spaceman]

The Warriors with Green on the floor had a higher point differential than the Spurs in all minutes vs. MEM. Opponent quality be damned, they performed like a GOAT team without Curry in round 1.

[Texas Chuck]

The Warriors with Green on the floor had a higher point differential than the Spurs in all minutes vs. MEM. Opponent quality be damned, they performed like a GOAT team without Curry in round 1.

I want to be careful not to take away too much from the Warriors, and hence Green, but its one thing to be playing a mediocre at best team, its another when said team is clearly not playing together nor seemingly too interested in advancing. Any other team, including the C team Grizzlies would have smelled opportunity when Curry got hurt and life wouldn't be so easy for the W's.


Now if they can do this against Portland(they would destroy the Clippers imo if they somehow advance) next series okay, but until then I'm not going to over-react.

[Dr Spaceman]

The Warriors with Green on the floor had a higher point differential than the Spurs in all minutes vs. MEM. Opponent quality be damned, they performed like a GOAT team without Curry in round 1.

I want to be careful not to take away too much from the Warriors, and hence Green, but its one thing to be playing a mediocre at best team, its another when said team is clearly not playing together nor seemingly too interested in advancing. Any other team, including the C team Grizzlies would have smelled opportunity when Curry got hurt and life wouldn't be so easy for the W's.


Now if they can do this against Portland(they would destroy the Clippers imo if they somehow advance) next series okay, but until then I'm not going to over-react.

Yep, and I agree 100%. It's just I'm already seeing comments like "Green's box score numbers don't look great without Curry in this series", and just wanted to set the record straight that they've maintained their RS level of play without Steph, which is astonishing regardless of how listless Houston is.

[SideshowBob]

GSW Playoffs (5 G)

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Curry OUT (154 MP, 316 Poss)

107.6 ORTG, 96.8 DRTG, +10.8 Net

Four Factors

Code: Select all

          eFG%       RB%         TOV%       FT/FGA

Off      51.5%     23.7%        13.3%         .248
Def      46.3%     71.8%        16.8%         .216

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Curry OUT | Draymond IN (144 MP, 300 Poss)

114.7 ORTG, 94.3 DRTG, +20.3 Net

Four Factors

Code: Select all

          eFG%       RB%         TOV%       FT/FGA

Off      56.2%     23.4%        12.0%         .252
Def      43.5%     70.5%        16.3%         .205

Non-Green Players

60.0% TS, 10.3% TO

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Curry OUT | Draymond OUT (58 MP, 108 Poss)

101.9 ORTG, 96.3 DRTG, +5.6 Net

Four Factors

Code: Select all

          eFG%       RB%         TOV%       FT/FGA

Off      49.0%     19.2%        13.9%         .143
Def      43.5%     64.3%        16.4%         .170

Non-Green Players

52.4% TS, 12.3% TO

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary for Offense - Without Curry, Green is driving a +7.6% in the TS of his teammates and reducing their turnovers. The easiest explanation for both, which is supported by game-watching, is that Green's presence on the floor is occurring simultaneously with easy baskets inside for everyone else. Inside baskets because free throw rate is up and the TS% shift is greater than the eFG% shift.

You can make of that what you would like.

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Data from NBAwowy. Will post Regular Season next for a larger data set.

[SideshowBob]

GSW Regular Season (82 G)

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Curry OUT | Draymond IN (345 MP, 711 Poss)

110.4 ORTG, 102.1 DRTG, +8.3 Net

Four Factors

Code: Select all

          eFG%       RB%         TOV%       FT/FGA

Off      53.1%     21.6%        13.5%         .216
Def      41.1%     78.2%        13.5%         .258

Non-Green Players

56.9% TS, 9.2% TO

--------------------------------------------------

Curry OUT | Draymond OUT (929 MP, 1807 Poss)

102.1 ORTG, 112.8 DRTG, -10.7 Net

Four Factors

Code: Select all

          eFG%       RB%         TOV%       FT/FGA

Off      49.4%     24.1%        14.7%         .164
Def      47.5%     72.7%        11.6%         .216

Non-Green Players

52.3% TS, 13.1% TO*

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

*Discrepancy in team vs. player TO% comes from the team number also including team turnovers (shot-clock violation, out-of-bounds on a FTA, etc.)

[SideshowBob]

Spoiler:

I've had a hard time judging Curry because he's basically sui generis. I'm a little more comfortable now, but it's still a tricky thing for me to gauge and I'm waiting for the postseason (and perhaps next season) to really refine my opinion.

I'll quantify where I am to help make it clearer: Last year I thought he was around a +5.5 offensive player, obviously super portable. This would place him squarely in my top-10 offensive peaks of all-time. I could see an argument for slightly lower or slightly higher. This year, his increase in scoring efficiency alone is worth about +2 points mathematically. I think he's also warping the floor slightly more than last year because team are so hyper-sensitive to him at this point and he's better than ever at deep shooting (drawing more attention) and penetrating and finishing with those little floaters. I think he's at his peak in passing too. It's a very strong argument for GOAT offensive season, and depending on how far one takes it, unless you consider him a horrible defender (hard to see) that leaves you with a GOAT overall season.

However, the football fan in me is acting up. In the NFL, there are often briefly successful new tactics that are then dampened as teams develop a counter-strategy. Curry has tailed off in efficiency in the second half of the season. Variance? Fatigue? Or defenses trying to adapt a new strategy against him? (Is the book still out on this until next year even?) This isn't like the balancing act a defense faces against peak Shaq or Jordan -- their buckets are worth 2 points only. Curry's efficiency on 3-points shots is so extreme that it seems better for defenses to warp the floor (classically a defensive no-no) to get him off of these shots that are worth like 1.5 points (or more) per attempt. (The equivalent of Jordan or Shaq shooting 75%!)

As of now, there's still some malleability in how I judge his last 2 seasons as I'm synthesizing all this stuff.

What are your thoughts on the defense of Kawhi & Green and the DPOY race the past two seasons? Is Kawhi making a case for GOAT defensive-wing peak over Pippen/Lebron for you?

Also! Are you still doing your Backpicks-Boxscore tracking? If so, how's Curry looking in OC?

[ElGee]

Spoiler:

I've had a hard time judging Curry because he's basically sui generis. I'm a little more comfortable now, but it's still a tricky thing for me to gauge and I'm waiting for the postseason (and perhaps next season) to really refine my opinion.

I'll quantify where I am to help make it clearer: Last year I thought he was around a +5.5 offensive player, obviously super portable. This would place him squarely in my top-10 offensive peaks of all-time. I could see an argument for slightly lower or slightly higher. This year, his increase in scoring efficiency alone is worth about +2 points mathematically. I think he's also warping the floor slightly more than last year because team are so hyper-sensitive to him at this point and he's better than ever at deep shooting (drawing more attention) and penetrating and finishing with those little floaters. I think he's at his peak in passing too. It's a very strong argument for GOAT offensive season, and depending on how far one takes it, unless you consider him a horrible defender (hard to see) that leaves you with a GOAT overall season.

However, the football fan in me is acting up. In the NFL, there are often briefly successful new tactics that are then dampened as teams develop a counter-strategy. Curry has tailed off in efficiency in the second half of the season. Variance? Fatigue? Or defenses trying to adapt a new strategy against him? (Is the book still out on this until next year even?) This isn't like the balancing act a defense faces against peak Shaq or Jordan -- their buckets are worth 2 points only. Curry's efficiency on 3-points shots is so extreme that it seems better for defenses to warp the floor (classically a defensive no-no) to get him off of these shots that are worth like 1.5 points (or more) per attempt. (The equivalent of Jordan or Shaq shooting 75%!)

As of now, there's still some malleability in how I judge his last 2 seasons as I'm synthesizing all this stuff.

What are your thoughts on the defense of Kawhi & Green and the DPOY race the past two seasons? Is Kawhi making a case for GOAT defensive-wing peak over Pippen/Lebron for you?

Also! Are you still doing your Backpicks-Boxscore tracking? If so, how's Curry looking in OC?

Nope. I've tried to do it for the Finals annually, but this year if I have the time I will do it for the Spurs-Warriors series instead.

Kawhi is a phenomenal defender, obviously. No issues with him winning DPOY. I don't have enough to get really into Green vs. Kawhi; they strike me as similar impact defenders. Not sure who I would give the nod to. I'm not sure Kawhi protects the rim as well as Pippen/LeBron -- I'd have to think about that more. I haven't watched the same volume of games this year and last as I used to, so I'll have more detailed thoughts after the next 2 series.

[SideshowBob]

What are your thoughts on the defense of Kawhi & Green and the DPOY race the past two seasons? Is Kawhi making a case for GOAT defensive-wing peak over Pippen/Lebron for you?

Also! Are you still doing your Backpicks-Boxscore tracking? If so, how's Curry looking in OC?

Nope. I've tried to do it for the Finals annually, but this year if I have the time I will do it for the Spurs-Warriors series instead.

Kawhi is a phenomenal defender, obviously. No issues with him winning DPOY. I don't have enough to get really into Green vs. Kawhi; they strike me as similar impact defenders. Not sure who I would give the nod to. I'm not sure Kawhi protects the rim as well as Pippen/LeBron -- I'd have to think about that more. I haven't watched the same volume of games this year and last as I used to, so I'll have more detailed thoughts after the next 2 series.

Cool! Looking forward to it

[SideshowBob]

Do you still have that spreadsheet of historic Team Offense/Defense Z-scores? And if so, did you ever add the recent seasons? If my memory serves me correctly, you first posted it in March 2013.

I'm curious as to GS/SAS this year rank.

[PearGreatness]

Do you still have that spreadsheet of historic Team Offense/Defense Z-scores? And if so, did you ever add the recent seasons? If my memory serves me correctly, you first posted it in March 2013.

I'm curious as to GS/SAS this year rank.

Is this what you're looking for?

[SideshowBob]

Do you still have that spreadsheet of historic Team Offense/Defense Z-scores? And if so, did you ever add the recent seasons? If my memory serves me correctly, you first posted it in March 2013.

I'm curious as to GS/SAS this year rank.

Is this what you're looking for?

Yes, thanks! I think he had updated it to also include Z score w/o including team in question in order to lighten the impact of outlier teams in the early seasons of the NBA.

[SideshowBob]

Durant's putting up 24/7/4 on 48% TS, but OKC is at a 118.6 ORTG through 6 games and were blazing with him on the floor through 5 games (121 ORTG).

[SideshowBob]

ESPN RPM Updated 5/1/16

Draymond Green and Lebron now in a near virtual tie for highest RPM, at +8.80 and +8.73 respectively. Curry has slipped to #3 at +8.45 nearly tied with Paul at +8.38

[ceiling raiser]

Do you still have that spreadsheet of historic Team Offense/Defense Z-scores? And if so, did you ever add the recent seasons? If my memory serves me correctly, you first posted it in March 2013.

I'm curious as to GS/SAS this year rank.

Is this what you're looking for?

Yes, thanks! I think he had updated it to also include Z score w/o including team in question in order to lighten the impact of outlier teams in the early seasons of the NBA.

I think this was it:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ER0rlpWenF5q3GZ3TygyuN-GlimHCWv-_4H3tWgEHHE

Haven't added 2016. I'll update it when I have a chance.

[therealbig3]

Green might be my #1 right now.

Despite some earlier posts in which I was basically thinking out loud, I don't think he's a potential GOAT candidate because of his +/- and his portability, because I think the synergism of the entire team goes underrated (admittedly, I was one of the people underrating them)...it's not just Green that's stepped up in Curry's absence, Klay and Iggy and Livingston, etc have as well. Green is certainly their best player right now with Curry out and the driving force behind their success without him, but you have to give credit to everyone else where it's due.

But at the same time, he's clearly proven that he's not a product of Curry offensively, and imo, he's the best defensive player in the league, DPOY Award be damned. He can pass, he can shoot, he can handle the ball, he can post up mismatches, and he's a factor on the offensive glass.

Meh, I just can't get the Kevin Garnett comparison out of my head, and Doctor MJ brought up another comparison: Boris Diaw, if Boris Diaw was more heavily featured offensively AND played DPOY-level defense. And both of those comparisons certainly make Green look like a best-in-the-league caliber player to me, especially with a declined LeBron and an injured Curry.

And I just don't think Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, or Chris Paul brought the same level of 2-way impact as Green has so far this year.

If you can't get over the edge in raw scoring, fine...but remember that Kevin Garnett was voted as #1 in the 2008 RPOY project, and Kobe outscored him by 10 ppg that year. Now, I'm sure that some people found that ridiculous and still do, but clearly, there were enough people that felt it was possible for a player to 1. not be a big time volume scorer and still be a big plus on offense, and 2. combine that offense with best-in-the-league defense and be able to trump players whose impacts are more concentrated on one side of the ball. I mean, did the fact that Kevin Garnett averaged 18 ppg really have ANYTHING to do with people voting him #1 that year?

And btw, Draymond Green in the playoffs (mostly without Curry) is averaging 15 ppg on really good efficiency anyway (55% TS, 117 ORating).

[Colbinii]

Where do you guys see Paul George this season?

[therealbig3]

Where do you guys see Paul George this season?

Not sure about top 10, would have to think about that more, but definitely not in the running for top 5. Curry, Green, Kawhi, Westbrook and Durant, at minimum, have been better.

[GSP]

Where do you guys see Paul George this season?

Top 10 for sure

Steph
Westbrook
Kawhi
Draymond
Lebron
Kd
Cp3
George
Lowry
Aldridge or Millsap
---
Davis
Jimmy
Harden
Dirk
Love
Lillard
Klay
Cousins
Drummond
Wall
Favors
Redick
Deandre

im actually not sure how to rank the Miami guys. Not that anyone on that team is close to top 5 or even in top 10 running. But how do u guys rank their best players between Wade, Whiteside, Goran, Bosh, Deng?

[SideshowBob]

2016 Golden State Warriors (88 G)

For the Curry OUT splits I've removed his two half games (Games 1 & 4 vs. Houston)

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Playoffs | (6 G)

+17.11 SRS, +5.8 Offense, -12.6 Defense

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Curry OUT | (RS + PS) | (7 G)

+5.83 SRS, +5.4 Offense, -1.0 Defense

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Curry OUT | Iggy, Barnes IN | (RS + PS) | (4 G)

+12.25 SRS, +7.7 Offense, -6.5 Defense

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