1. Just the basics here. Everyone from Skal on down is in our potential draft range.
2. Skal is the only particularly tall prospect at PF. Jameel Warney and Robert Carter are short for non-combo forwards, but both have enough length to play PF.
3. Cheick Diallo and Nigel Hayes have freakish length, while Domnatas Sabonis, Jarrod Uthoff and James Webb suffer from poor wingspans.
Defense
1. While steals are not that big of a deal for PFs, Simmons’ is so incredibly high that it’s worth noting. 2.1 steals would be good for a PG, much less a PF. Skal, Davis and Jones all have steal rates that point to them being more C than PF.
2. Diallo and Warney put their length to good use and block a ton of shots. Skal and Davis reinforce the notion that they’re more C than PF with excellent block rates. Meanwhile, Simmons, Webb and Hayes all look more like SFs than PFs, being combo-forwards. Jarrod Uthoff stands out with an incredible block rate despite his T-rex arms.
3. Brice Johnson, Joel Bolomboy, Zach August, and Sabonis all dominate on the defensive glass. Skal somehow rebounds worse than Nigel Hayes despite having 4 inches on him. His weight likely has something to do with this, but wow does he suck at rebounding.
4. Diallo naturally stands out as a fantastic defensive presence, followed by Brice Johnson, Paskal Siakam, Ben Simmons and Joel Bolomboy. Zach August only had an okay NetDRtg despite being on a horrible defensive team. Carter, Uthoff and Ellenson are offense-first big men, so their low-ish scores are expected, but don’t appear to be too terrible.
5. There are a lot of non-defenders here. Skal’s defensive impact is being seriously overstated by his blocked shots, and his poor rebounding (and lack of weight/toughness) certainly has something to do with that. Chriss, Bentil and Hayes are all combo-forwards who will likely struggle playing PF full time with their poor rebounding numbers. Damien Jones has a pretty disappointing defensive impact like Skal.
Overall Offense
1. Lots of scorers in this draft. Warney and Bentil lead the way as scorers, followed closely by Uthoff, Siakam and Johnson. Davis, Skal and Diallo bring up the rear as scorers.
2. Johnson and Warney combine high volume with excellent efficiency, while Davis compensates for his low volume by also scoring efficiently. Skal combines low volume with poor efficiency. Ellenson and Hayes, both supposed to be offense first guys, struggled with efficiency; Hayes being extremely bad.
3. Simmons unsurprisingly stands head and shoulders above the rest as a passer. Robert Carter and Nigel Hayes dish the ball a lot, and Siakam adds good passing to his high scoring volume. Chriss joins Skal and Diallo as having really poor assist rates, which is bad news because Chriss’ rebounding indicates that he should be on the perimeter. Skal and Diallo just continue to suck at everything offense.
4. Simmons and Carter naturally turn the ball over most since they pass it the most. Sabonis is a surprise though. Warney, Siakam, Bentil and Uthoff have low TOV% to pair with high scoring. Usually this indicates that these guys are finishers rather than creators.
5. So NetORtg. Diallo rates as more awful on offense than he is exceptional on defense, which is very impressive. Skal and Jones rate poorly on both ends, but Skal rates much worse.
6. Warney, Siakam and Johnson rate as green across the board. Siakam and Johnson stand out for rating well on both ends of the floor. Carter, Ellenson and Hayes have low offensive impact for offense-first players.
Penetration
1. Brice Johnson is a freakishly good finisher, best I’ve seen frankly. Hayes and Bentil are combo-forwards who you’d expect to be a bit lower, while Ellenson and August struggle for guys their size.
2. Hayes, Ellenson, Uthoff and Skal are all known as jumpshooting bigs, so it’s no surprise they take fewer shots at the rim.
3. Hayes’ poor numbers before this are partially explained here. Hayes was forced to create a lot more offense than he was comfortable with, with a %rim assisted more akin to a PG than a big. Bolomboy, Simmons, Ellenson, August, Carter and Siakam all created just over half of their own buckets at the rim, solid rates.
4. Johnson’s sky-high finishing is explained a bit here with such a huge portion of his offense at the rim being assisted. Diallo, being incompetent offensively, also needed to be set up by someone often.
5. Hayes, Bolomboy and Simmons all sport very nice free throw rates. Critical for Hayes that he gets to the line given his overall inefficiency. Deyonta Davis seems allergic to contact, it’s mindboggling that you could draw so few free throws.
Jump Shooting
1. The only sure shooter from distance available is Jarrod Uthoff. His offensive game revolved around jacking up a ton of threes and he hit them at a very good rate.
2. Next we look at guys who could become shooters. Going just by volume of 3 point attempts, we’d see Hayes, Webb, Carter, Bentil, Ellenson, Bolomboy and Chriss. Sabonis also started to take 3s late in his career.
3. After this, we look at FT% - Webb and Chriss had poor FT% this year, and Webb for his career, indicating that they probably need work as shooters. Brice Johnson however, has been quite solid from the line, and warrants a look. Siakam too is over 70% from the line for his career.
4. I’m desperate to tease out some details here, so I’m looking at 2 point jumper data from hoop-math. It’s important to note that “jumper” really means ‘any shot taken more than 3 feet from the basket that wasn’t a 3’, so this is somewhat unreliable. Plus, it isn’t a big sample size of shots.
5. Carter, Johnson, Sabonis, Skal and Diallo all hit a good % of their 2 point ‘jumpers’. Having watched them play, I can tell you that Carter, Johnson, Sabonis and Skal do indeed have jump shots and use them some. Hayes and Simmons had poor %s – no surprise for Simmons, who knows he can’t shoot and generally makes sure he gets to the basket, but bad news for Hayes.
6. Looking at % assisted, we again see that Hayes was burdend with creating a lot of offense when he just isn’t that capable of doing it. Carter created a lot of his own mid-range looks and thus may have promise.
7. Finally, we look at volume to see who created the most mid-range buckets period. And I see what I expected to see. Siakam, Carter, Hayes and Johnson all scored a ton from this distance. Siakam in particular scored a huge volume here.
8. Brice Johnson features a 10 foot jumper but there is little reason to expect him to extend his range much beyond that. Siakam, Carter, Sabonis and Bolomboy have solid midrange games and have potential to shoot 3s down the line. Hayes can be a decent shooter so long as he isn’t asked to make shots off the dribble. Chriss’ decent % from 3 is deceptive given his somewhat low volume and struggles from the line and midrange, but him, Bentil, Skal and Ellenson also have potential as shooters down the road as well.
Passing
These numbers don’t tell us much that we couldn’t already see in the overall offense section. Simmons is a huge standout. Hayes and Carter are plus passers. Sabonis, Warney, Ellenson and Siakam are goodish passers. Davis, Johnson, Jones and Webb will move the ball. Bolomboy, August, Bentil, Chriss and Uthoff struggle. Diallo and Skal suck.
Final Verdicts
Instead of tiers I'll sort by type.
Small school monsters
Jameel Warney – He’s a one man offense, a complete scoring machine up close. He has an arsenal of post moves and can score with either hand. He is good at dealing with double teams, passing out of them and avoiding turnovers. He draws fouls, finishes through contact and is a beast on the glass too. But he’s only 6’8”, he can’t shoot jumpers at all, he’s slow, and he isn’t a good leaper. Essentially, he’s a center in a PFs body. For all of his skill and intelligence on both sides of the ball he just doesn’t have the size or athleticism of an NBA big, so hello Europe.
Joel Bolomboy – Another guy who’s numbers don’t quite tell you what he really is. Bolomboy is an athlete, quick, explosive, but really skinny. He doesn’t have the intelligence to play in the post, and his jump shot has a hitch still. He’s raw and can get pushed around, and he has poor reaction time on defense. He just happens to be so physically talented and high energy that he can dominate at a lower level, but in the NBA his poor feel and rawness will get exposed. At his age he’s a D-Leaguer.
Domnatas Sabonis – Does Gonzaga count as a small school still? Anyways, Sabonis features an excellent scoring game inside and has shown a bit of a jump shot. He’s much more comfortable down low. He’s a solid passer as a big man but nothing special, and in any event he’s focused on scoring, which he does very well. He took apart Jakub Poeltl in the tournament. The problem is defense. He has really short arms and is more center than PF. While he rebounds the ball really well and had a good Net DRtg, he didn’t even manage a single block per40 pace adjusted, which is really bad for a PF/C. He’ll have to make his jumper a bigger part of his game to play PF full time in the NBA, because he doesn’t have the rim protection to play center. He’s a risk so I’d rather let Portland take him, but I wouldn’t be mad if we drafted him.
Pascal Siakam – I think that he is more legit than Warney or Bolomboy. Siakam made a boatload of midrange shots this year. Although he’s only 12 makes ahead of Robert Carter in unassisted makes, he’s laps the field when you add the assisted makes. The defense that he anchored was better than UNC’s, going by KenPom’s adjusted defense, so his defensive presences seems legit. While he is skinny, he does have the athleticism to play in the NBA and is just a sophomore. I’m super high on him for a second rounder. I think he’s our ideal backup PF if he develops.
Combo- Forwards
Ben Simmons – He’s going to be the top pick for a reason. When people say he has no holes in his game but his jump shot, they really mean no holes. No chance we get him though.
James Webb – I’m not sure what he is or what his role is. His steal rate is good enough for a SF, while his rebounding is good enough for a PF, that's a positive. Offensively he doesn’t have a single standout feature besides avoiding turnovers. Most of his unassisted offense comes from mid-range, but he isn't a trustworthy shooter. Without watching a ton of BSU games I don't know what the appeal is.
Ben Bentil – He rates poorly as a defender and rebounder. He scored well and was a big impact guy on offense, but about 2/3 of his offense was getting set up by Kris Dunn. Even getting set up all the time, he still was a poor finisher for a potential PF. I think that he’s just a decent finisher, but we have plenty of offensive forwards who can do more than him. Not much interest from me.
Jarrod Uthoff – He does two things really well, shoot 3s and block shots. He doesn’t have the handle or passing to play SF, but he’s really skinny for a PF. Basically think of him as a white Anthony Toliver. I’d be willing to take a chance on him.
Robert Carter – His offensive skills are quite good, but he’ll need to develop before he sees the floor; either extending his range or cutting down on turnovers. I don’t like his defense as much as his Net DRtg does after watching Perry Ellis take him to school, but his length gives him the potential to play passable defense. What does this give us that we don’t already have though?
Marquese Chriss – He’s super raw and currently without a certain position. His jump shot isn’t something I’d rely on yet, and his passing is clearly not up to snuff if you want to play him on the perimeter. However, at PF he’s a minus on the glass, and he’s a net zero on defense despite his steals and blocks. He has a lot of development to do still. I’d be very wary of drafting him.
Nigel Hayes – He had a terrible season, but let’s remember what he did the year before. It’s obvious that Hayes can create offense for himself well and was being relied on too heavily. But when he was getting set up he was a great finisher and solid shooter. Plus he can draw fouls very well and is a very good passer. His rebounding isn’t up to snuff and his defense fell off, but with his length I think he’ll rate better once he isn’t the go-to guy. He’s a born role player basically. I wouldn’t mind it if we took a chance on him but I suspect he’ll return to school.
PF/C types
Brice Johnson – He was a high impact player on both ends of the court, good at just about everything. Bouncy, active on the glass and on defense, moves the ball around, finishes lobs, and has a short range jumper. He isn’t a great fit with Drummond given his limited range, but don’t be surprised when he has a solid career in the NBA.
Deyonta Davis – His game is clearly that of a centers when you watch him play, and he is a good defender. Unfortunately he’s short for a center. He should be able to find a spot in the NBA with small ball giving shorter bigs everywhere a chance, no problem, but I don’t think that he’s a solution for us. He also should be long gone by the time we're on the clock.
Henry Ellenson – He disappointed on both ends of the floor. He didn’t knock down his jumpers like he was supposed to, but he still looks somewhat promising as a shooter. He also finished poorly at the rim, leading to terrible scoring efficiency for a big. His passing is pretty decent, so as he does have solid offensive potential. I just didn’t like his defense a lot. I was hoping he’d be faster. Still, he’s gone before we’re drafting.
Zach August – His post game isn’t good enough to get him touches, and his rebounding is redundant with Drummond. Frankly, he just isn’t a good defender period despite his athleticism. I don’t see him as an NBA player.
Damien Jones – Clearly a very overrated player. He is generally considered a C, but he his actual defensive impact for a center is terrible, on a bad defensive team. Offensively his coach force-fed him the ball and he clearly isn’t special as a scorer. No thanks.
Cheick Diallo – He is so lost on the court that he couldn’t get minutes at Kansas, what makes you think that he’ll earn more minutes on a NBA team? Seriously, he only played 200 minutes, around 8 a game. He had nice defensive impact but that was on sheer athleticism, he didn’t know where to be or what to do on defense. Offensively he is of course worse than useless. Can’t wait to see him on the Sixers.
Skal Labissiere – He really, really, REALLY sucked this year. He’s old for a freshmen for one, so his poor play looks even worse. He’s incredibly soft on both ends. He doesn’t pass the ball and just chucks up long 2s like he thinks he’s LMA. He’s so raw that despite his clear gifts he made very little actually defensive impact and he’s a huge minus on offense because he’s a dumb chucker. I know that he looks vaguely like the solution, but thankfully I think some suckers will draft him ahead of us.
With our first round pick, please draft either Brice Johnson or Sabonis.
With our second round pick, please draft either Pascal Siakam, Jarrod Uthoff or maybe Robert Carter.
