'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[SideshowBob]

Klay with 26 threes through 4 games now :O He's hitting close to the same amount as Steph was in last year's playoffs and is slightly ahead of Steph in per-100 rate.

[SideshowBob]

Warriors have turned in strong defensive games with Curry out.

In 5 Games (not looking at his two half played games):

+11.60 SRS, 115.0 ORTG, 101.7 DRTG (not including team TOs)

That's a +7.0 Offense and -6.8 Defense.

[Dr Spaceman]

Warriors have turned in strong defensive games with Curry out.

In 5 Games (not looking at his two half played games):

+11.60 SRS, 115.0 ORTG, 101.7 DRTG (not including team TOs)

That's a +7.0 Offense and -6.8 Defense.

If this is their level of play minus the league MVP, there really can be no debate about GOAT team anymore.

[RSCD3_]

Warriors have turned in strong defensive games with Curry out.

In 5 Games (not looking at his two half played games):

+11.60 SRS, 115.0 ORTG, 101.7 DRTG (not including team TOs)

That's a +7.0 Offense and -6.8 Defense.

I always thought it was weird they slipped on defense from last year, this kind of seems to confirm they were coasting on that end a little bit compared to last year.

If they are running this seemingly I wonder how far curry once he returns to health ( hopefully ) can boost it higher. Could we see 120+ ORTG in the finals?

[SideshowBob]

Warriors have turned in strong defensive games with Curry out.

In 5 Games (not looking at his two half played games):

+11.60 SRS, 115.0 ORTG, 101.7 DRTG (not including team TOs)

That's a +7.0 Offense and -6.8 Defense.

If this is their level of play minus the league MVP, there really can be no debate about GOAT team anymore.

Nah I disagree with that line of thought. Obviously I think they're a GOAT contender but a +6 team at home vs a +0.5 and +1.0 team is the equivalent of a 9.0 vs. 0.5 and 9.0 vs. 1.0 matchup on neutral court. It's not really that crazy to see them blow the pants off of these teams - we saw Cleveland in 09 play like GOATx2 in the first two rounds against DET/ATL (+17.4 SRS) despite the fact that they were pretty clearly not a GOAT level team. It happens, but over the course of the season I'm pretty certain they'd end up right around a 5-7 average (maybe a little higher).

Of course if you think Curry is the GOAT by a margin, then yeah, adding him to a team of this level might vault them to a new bar for GOAT team. But even my most cherry-picked In/Out sets don't have them sustaining a level of play that high and we have stretches/samples of other historic teams playing at that level or higher. I've got a 39 G set of GSW playing at +13.2 SRS w/Barnes, Bogut, Curry, Green, Iggy, Klay IN. But then look at this:

At the Pearly Gates, if God said "I grant you one wish" (after asking me what my favorite swear word was), I would say "to see the 08 Celtics v the 14 Spurs."

The Spurs played 61 games this year with Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter. They were a +11.8 SRS team in those games with a 113.6 (+7.1) ORtg and -5.9 DRtg. The team shot 57.9% TS% and 54.5% on eFG% (with a relatively low 23.1% OREB%, The eFG% ranks them 7th all-time, behind 4 Steve Nash Suns teams, Miami the last 2 seasons and the 85 Lakers.

I think that makes the 14 Spurs a legit 10+ SRS team...not watered down by expansion either. There aren't many of those in NBA history. I'm not willing to say they are GOAT-level team -- they probably aren't quite there -- but they are on the short list and are also matchup resilient. The 97 Bulls were a +15 SRS team for 39 games with Kukoc, Rodman and Longley in the lineup. Still, that needs to be curved slightly because of the expansion teams and smaller sample (the rest of the 96-97 Bulls performances are around 12-13). The 04 Pistons were +10 with Rasheed (including a -10.9 DRtg). The 05 Spurs +10 with Duncan and Ginobili. The 08 Celtics +10 with KG and Pierce. The 08 Lakers +10 with Gasol. 86 Celtics +9 with McHale and Bird. What the 14 Spurs did this year, on the heels being a +9 team last year, is staggering.

Spoiler:

I do think they are vulnerable to some athleticism, but they can do very well with most other situations. I'll do this based on win probability of 14 SAS on a neutral court:

13 Heat 55%
12 Heat 65%
11 Mavs 65%
10 Lakers 65%
09 Lakers 60%
08 Celtics 50%
07 Spurs 55%
06 Heat 75%
05 Spurs 55%
04 Pistons 55%
03 Spurs 70%
02 Lakers 55%
01 Lakers 50%

[SideshowBob]

I always thought it was weird they slipped on defense from last year, this kind of seems to confirm they were coasting on that end a little bit compared to last year.

If they are running this seemingly I wonder how far curry once he returns to health ( hopefully ) can boost it higher. Could we see 120+ ORTG in the finals?

Well that plus they play a lot of small ball, so sacrifice a bit of D for O.

Yes, and Cleveland is going to have to match ~120 to have a shot (TBF they have done that through 5 games against 104.7 DRTG) .

Once we get to the top 4 I'll post full playoff stats for all the conference finalists.

[Dr Positivity]

1. Kawhi
2. Lebron
3. Draymond
4. Durant
5. Westbrook

I am the type of voter that doesn't have 1978 Walton on the ballot - I think if X teams had 2016 Curry, too many of them either lose in 1st round or are in too big a hole in 2nd round after missing him first 2-3 games, therefore it's hard to put him in top 5 for championship probability added even if he comes back strong, especially considering the alternatives for his spot like Durant and Westbrook are still incredibly good players to have to win Semi finals and Finals, which is where Curry's value will kick in. Give me a choice between 2016 Curry and 2016 Lillard and I'll take Curry and live with the first two rounds, but the bar for top 5 is set pretty high in this case

I have a hard time believing in Draymond's offense over Kawhi so I don't think Green will be in play for me at #1, but everyone else is in play I guess

[PearGreatness]

In a random situation you'd have to assume missed time is the equivalent of a replacement level player, no? So going with your +8, Steph misses the 1st round but plays 2-4, so weight round 1 as a replacement PG and 2-4 as +8.

So say replacement level is -2.0. Counting Steph as top level portable, +8 player (that would be GOAT level for me):

Round 1: 0.030 Exp. Titles X 1/4
Round 2: 0.385 Exp. Titles X 1/4
Round 3: 0.385 Exp. Titles X 1/4
Round 4: 0.385 Exp. Titles X 1/4

Total: .296 Exp. Titles, which is about the equivalent of a +7-+7.25 level player. So if you hold Steph as a +8 player and grade him in the above manner, you would have to consider Green/James/Leonard/Durant/Westbrook at around +7-7.25 to consider them as fighting for the top spot.

This is the question I'm still trying to answer for myself when trying to rank Curry. Your idea of replacing him with a -2.0 player and using that to arrive at the final ".296" number is exactly what I'm looking for, but I don't think missing time in an earlier round should hurt your odds as much as missing time in a later round. My problem is... I have no idea how to handle that mathematically without making a ton of wags.

[Colbinii]

I am really thinking that LeBron has given a team the best championship odds so far this season.

[ElGee]

In a random situation you'd have to assume missed time is the equivalent of a replacement level player, no? So going with your +8, Steph misses the 1st round but plays 2-4, so weight round 1 as a replacement PG and 2-4 as +8.

So say replacement level is -2.0. Counting Steph as top level portable, +8 player (that would be GOAT level for me):

Round 1: 0.030 Exp. Titles X 1/4
Round 2: 0.385 Exp. Titles X 1/4
Round 3: 0.385 Exp. Titles X 1/4
Round 4: 0.385 Exp. Titles X 1/4

Total: .296 Exp. Titles, which is about the equivalent of a +7-+7.25 level player. So if you hold Steph as a +8 player and grade him in the above manner, you would have to consider Green/James/Leonard/Durant/Westbrook at around +7-7.25 to consider them as fighting for the top spot.

This is the question I'm still trying to answer for myself when trying to rank Curry. Your idea of replacing him with a -2.0 player and using that to arrive at the final ".296" number is exactly what I'm looking for, but I don't think missing time in an earlier round should hurt your odds as much as missing time in a later round. My problem is... I have no idea how to handle that mathematically without making a ton of wags.

Did some quick math using some of my title calculators. Some of these are quick estimates, but I think they do justice to the degree of penalty I'm looking for based on Steph's injury.

Let's pretend an elite player missed the first two rounds -- his team is going to have HCA in both rounds in a good number of instances. Let's pretend the player is a +6 -- we expect every -1 team or better that he joins to have HCA in the first two rounds (technically, it won't always happen). Here are the odds of -1 teams through +4 teams with HCA against their average first and second round opponents:

Team SRS (SRS with +6 player) 1st Round Odds | 2nd Round Odds = Odds of advancing
-1 (5)24% | 15% = 4%
0 (6) 47% | 24% = 11%
1 (7) 59% | 34% = 20%
2 (8) 73% | 47% = 34%
3 (9) 82% | 59% = 48%
4 (10)85% | 67% = 57%

These are drastically lower numbers than if the +6 player were in the lineup, but they still advance quite a bit. (For a +8 player, the expectation is 74-97% of the time to advance to the CF's, respectively.) Indeed, the overall impact across all scenarios drops by more than half, taking expected titles from ~0.30 to ~0.14. This is closer to the expected titles a +3 player produces.

Of course, Curry, isn't slated to miss the entire second round, but instead a few games in the series. If he missed the first round only, the odds drop from about 0.30 to 0.25. Assuming those first 2 or 3 games of the series missed reduces winning the series by an average of 10-20%, that brings the expected titles down to 0.22, or about a 4.5-5 SRS player. The problem is, there's a similar dent to the team even if Steph is like a +7 (brings it down to something like 0.25 titles, or a 5-5.5 SRS player).

In summary, it matters, but if you can come back early in the second round, you are still providing great value. Personally, I'd curve 8 to 5.5, 7 to 5 and 6 to 4.5. The knee injury pretty much makes it impossible for me to consider him for GOAT, or probably even an all-time season.

[SideshowBob]

Cavaliers with a 122.3 ORTG (123.3 w/o Team TOs) through 7 games vs. an average DRTG of 103.7 (yes +20 offense, where you at Nash?). Seems like they will at least make a run at the 87 Showtime record mark of 119.9. They've gone completely ballistic from beyond the arc, making 118 threes through 7 games (16.9/G).

[ElGee]

WOWY splits...]

So as of right now, here are the "healthy" lineups for the top contenders:
GSW (41g): +13.9 SRS | +11 ORtg | -2.9 DRtg
SAS (53g): +12.5 SRS | +4.2 ORtg | -9.4 DRtg
CLE (52g): +7.6 SRS | +9.5 ORtg | +1.6 DRtg

Spurs at an all-time level, very similar to peak 96/97 Bulls. But Warriors posting the best ever. Warriors offense also over 117 when healthy. Also, since 1997, [EDIT] only one team had ever outscored anyone by 4 points per game in the 1st quarter (4.3), until this year, when Warriors were better than +5 in the 1st quarter alone.

[SideshowBob]

RPM updated

Draymond and Lebron continue to establish a gap over Paul/Curry. Draymond now a tenth of a point ahead of Lebron and over +9, Lebron climbing incrementally on both Off/Def and is just under +9. Curry/Paul/Leonard all within a tenth of a point of each other but Curry has dropped below Paul now - as Dray gets more ON court time w/o Curry and the Warriors continue to dominate, the model is observing separation between the two.

[Doctor MJ]

RPM updated

Draymond and Lebron continue to establish a gap over Paul/Curry. Draymond now a tenth of a point ahead of Lebron and over +9, Lebron climbing incrementally on both Off/Def and is just under +9. Curry/Paul/Leonard all within a tenth of a point of each other but Curry has dropped below Paul now - as Dray gets more ON court time w/o Curry and the Warriors continue to dominate, the model is observing separation between the two.

I'm beginning to feel more and more like by season's end I'll conclude Green's +/- edge over Curry isn't because of noise.
That will be interesting should we get there.

[Clyde Frazier]

I probably would’ve gone with Olshey, but not a travesty or anything.

[Doctor MJ]

I probably would’ve gone with Olshey, but not a travesty or anything.

I agree with the winner, and I like Olshey making some noise - he should have already won it for his time on the Clippers.

I continue to be irritated with the way Ujiri gets so much credit. I think he's competent yes, but he won EOY basically for giving Karl run of the mill players, and then people have been praising him in Toronto for a core assembled by his predecessor. The acquisition of Carroll was a good move, but we're still just talking about a guy who is a role player on a team that's not seriously going to contend for a title.

[Texas Chuck]

Biyombo and CuJo were both also important pieces he added this year. Heck add Scola to the mix--I know he disappeared from the rotation in the playoffs but he started a ton of games for them and by all accounts is a major key to their chemistry.

I know you don't like him much, but I don't see anyone behind him who clearly had a better year. 4th seems fine. I'd question those 2 guys who gave him 1st place votes, but he added some key pieces and still has some nice assets to move forward with. I mean he also got a 1st and Norman Powell for Grevis Vasquez in one of the biggest robberies of the summer as well.

[Doctor MJ]

Biyombo and CuJo were both also important pieces he added this year. Heck add Scola to the mix--I know he disappeared from the rotation in the playoffs but he started a ton of games for them and by all accounts is a major key to their chemistry.

I know you don't like him much, but I don't see anyone behind him who clearly had a better year. 4th seems fine. I'd question those 2 guys who gave him 1st place votes, but he added some key pieces and still has some nice assets to move forward with. I mean he also got a 1st and Norman Powell for Grevis Vasquez in one of the biggest robberies of the summer as well.

To be clear, it's not that I dislike him or that I think he's bad, I just think people seem to be bizarrely prone to thinking of him whenever these accolades come up.

I do get what you mean that it's not like there are a ton of GMs that had huge years this year though, but I think that drives me a bit nuts about all this is that I know that basically every move he's made thus far will be in the "who cares?" category in the future unless he makes a majorly good move at some point.

[bondom34]

I'm not a huge Ujiri fan either, but the only guy behind him I'd debate is probably Cho. I'm kinda confused as to what Ainge did other than sign Crowder this season, and Griffin has no business there.

[HeartBreakKid]

Hard to beat the Spurs this season, they got the biggest free agent in the summer. I mean these guys have Kevin Martin, Andre Miller and the Euro league MVP as their 10th, 11th and 12th man, thats pretty damn impressive. Acquiring David West for pennies is just overkill.