Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Norm2953]

It will be interesting this summer to see if the teams investment in Alexander and Montero
pays off. Montero might have a chance at PT if he develops this summer and either
Crabbe or Henderson leave as free agents.

The upgrade Portland needs upfront is a quality NBA starter up front who simply is better
than Aminu and Harkless. Not going to be easy to get this player via free agency or trade
and I'm skeptical there is a player on the roster with the personality and drive to be the
man up front.

[Fitz303]

Anybody who hoped that Olshey would go back after Batum can likely let go of that dream

http://www.blazersedge.com/2016/5/2/11570592/nicolas-batum-exit-interview-charlotte-hornets

Former Portland Trail Blazers forward Nicolas Batum is not likely to return to the Rose City any time soon.

In a season-closing interview with the Charlotte Observer, Batum told writer Rick Bonnell, "It was a pretty cool year. First time I got to play like I want to in eight years in the NBA."

"When I came here they let me know they wanted me to be one of the (top) two options with Kemba Walker," Batum said. "I liked that. I like that they trusted me."

[Jsun947]

Ya, there is no chance of a Batum to Portland reunion. There's been very strong comments from Olshey specifically saying that they traded him because they knew they would have left anyway. I don't think that's an opinion that Olshey just came up with, it was probably told to him by Batum and/or his agent.

[BlackMamba]

The core as in Dame, CJ, Crabbe, Aminu, Harkless, Plumlee, should stay. The wholes are a PG backup that can make plays for the second unit and a real offensive threat at PF/SF (with a little more size than Harkless).

I really wonder what could Vonley grow up to be. And how bad is Alexander? It would be great to see some of that top 2 HS prospect potential.

[Jsun947]

The core of Dame, CJ, Crabbe, Aminu, Harkless, and Plumlee will be making around 57,000,000 next season, and then when the extensions hit in 2017/2018 that number will balloon probably another 35,000,000 including player raises. If thats your core and its costing upwards 90 million in salary you're screwed. There's only one franchise player in the bunch, one borderline all star caliber guy, and some role players.

YIKES!

[zzaj]

Crabbe is nothing special. He's a shooter that is average at defense with horrible FT rate and RB rate. He should be replaced with a cheaper option.

Aminu and Harkless are basically the same player. I don't think the Blazers can afford to retain both long-term--PS. For those of you on the Harrison Barnes bandwagon, take a look at Aminu-Barnes' numbers side by side. They are basically the same, with Barnes being a better shooter and Aminu being a better defender and rebounder.

I think Plumlee has shown enough skill and improvement (his FT% increase was pretty impressive) that he should be a Blazer for a while. However, as his stock rises so does his ability to fetch something in trade even with a paltry contract.

I still don't think CJ at SG can be the answer long term for this team...at least not if they have Championship aspirations. Besides being the only player on the Blazers that could possibly be used with any gravity in a trade to balance out the current scoring/playmaking heavy back court, without a vastly different defensive system in place, or different player personnel, the Lillard/CJ will always be a defensive liability.

Quick, when was the last time a team won a championship when it's two biggest weapons were 6'3"?

[Wizenheimer]

The core of Dame, CJ, Crabbe, Aminu, Harkless, and Plumlee will be making around 57,000,000 next season, and then when the extensions hit in 2017/2018 that number will balloon probably another 35,000,000 including player raises. If thats your core and its costing upwards 90 million in salary you're screwed. There's only one franchise player in the bunch, one borderline all star caliber guy, and some role players.
YIKES!

I've been sounding an alarm for a while now about how expensive the current roster is going to get, but maybe the only place the alarm bells have been ringing is my tightly wound head

I also think people tend to be a little loose in defining a core. Just because a player is in the rotation doesn't mean he's good enough to be considered core. I think the Blazers right now only have two players that should be thought of as core, and one of them is borderline IMO

in your scenario above, Lillard-CJ-Aminu-Plumlee have a shade under 35 million in salary guarantees next season, so that means you're thinking that Crabbe and Harkless will have combined starting salaries of 22 million next season. I have a hard time predicting how excessive contracts are going to be next summer, but 22 million seems kind of high for those two, although I think Harkless has opened some eyes. That would mean their average salary over their next deals would be in the 23-24 million range. If so, yikes indeed

it may not matter though because your scenario didn't include Davis & Vonelh. More important, it didn't include any salary for a good free agent or two, and I think we all want the Blazers to upgrade, somewhere, and that won't be cheap.

Crabbe is nothing special. He's a shooter that is average at defense with horrible FT rate and RB rate. He should be replaced with a cheaper option.

Aminu and Harkless are basically the same player. I don't think the Blazers can afford to retain both long-term--PS. For those of you on the Harrison Barnes bandwagon, take a look at Aminu-Barnes' numbers side by side. They are basically the same, with Barnes being a better shooter and Aminu being a better defender and rebounder.

I think Plumlee has shown enough skill and improvement (his FT% increase was pretty impressive) that he should be a Blazer for a while. However, as his stock rises so does his ability to fetch something in trade even with a paltry contract.

* Crabbe: it all depends on what kind of offers he gets. If it's in the 6-9 million/year range, then it might be worth re-signing although I think the 8-9 range is pretty steep for what he brings. Henderson is in the same tier, but I'd think he'll be cheaper because he'll be on his 3rd contract and he won't be getting the premium for potential that Crabbe might get. It may come down to the fact that Crabbe's cap-hold is over 6 million less then Henderson's

* I'm thinking Harkless is more like Barnes then Aminu is, at least in style. Barnes is going to get overpaid and is RFA so I want Portland to avoid him. Aminu & Harkless on the same team? All depends on cost. Having both of them at 15 million/year might be fine. On the other hand, when talking of roster upgrades, it doesn't always have to be one specific player for another. Portland could upgrade their roster by improving BBIQ and it seems one way to upgrade is to keep Aminu from handling the ball so much. It might require a trade to do that, but maybe, if Portland upgraded with another ball-handler or two, that might restrict Aminu's imagination

* Plumlee? well, if it's the Plumlee from the Clipper series, fine.If it's last night's Plumlee...hmmm. The turnovers were bad and it didn't help that he had 4 or 5 of his shot attempts crammed up his nose, but maybe he'll bounce back next game. There just aren't a lot of clear C upgrades in free agency this summer. At least none that seem realistic

I still don't think CJ at SG can be the answer long term for this team...at least not if they have Championship aspirations. Besides being the only player on the Blazers that could possibly be used with any gravity in a trade to balance out the current scoring/playmaking heavy back court, without a vastly different defensive system in place, or different player personnel, the Lillard/CJ will always be a defensive liability.

preach brother.

I think part of that will be what CJ's next contract ends up being. Lillard is going to average 25 million/year on his deal. CJ gets his contract based upon a salary cap that will be 20% higher then the one Lillard's deal is based upon. A max deal in CJ's RFA summer could be starting at close to 26 million. That would mean a max, 5-year deal could average 30 million/year. CJ likely won't get that, but with an MIP in his resume he won't be signing for much less then a max. Batum got nearly 90% of max when he signed IIRC. Most good players that seem like they mat have some all-star potential tend to get at least 80% of max and usually more.

if CJ ends up making close to the same as Lillard, Portland will have a 50 million/year starting backcourt. I don't care how much you like CJ, that has to be a concern

Quick, when was the last time a team won a championship when it's two biggest weapons were 6'3"?

I thin West Linn just won their 4th straight 6A High School championship with a couple of 6'3 stars

[Jsun947]

Zach Lowe has said all the execs he's spoke with fully expect Crabbe to get north of 10 mil per.

I think Harkless will get around 7-9 as well.

If the cap is 92 mil, and Lillard qualifies for the Rose rule (30%) then his salary would start at 27.6 mil right?

It's really too bad Lillard extended already and we couldn't just have his cap hold on the books, like Detroit did with Drummond.

[LuessiT]

How opposed would you guys be to trading Vonleh straight for Monroe before FA?

[Jsun947]

I don't think Monroe solves any of the teams current problems. Offensively he's an upgrade from Ed Davis but that's about it. Our defense is so important from that position with Lillard & CJ on the floor that I'm not sure we can afford him playing major minutes as a starter.

[Masterfully]

Zach Lowe has said all the execs he's spoke with fully expect Crabbe to get north of 10 mil per.

I think Harkless will get around 7-9 as well.

If the cap is 92 mil, and Lillard qualifies for the Rose rule (30%) then his salary would start at 27.6 mil right?

It's really too bad Lillard extended already and we couldn't just have his cap hold on the books, like Detroit did with Drummond.

Portland will be very lucky if running out of cap space becomes an issue.

[GreenRiddler]

We are pretty set to be honest we got a core we'll be locking up soon with Dame and CJ. It's their first year together and we already won a playoff series, even with the rather tempered supporting cast.

The rest of the guys on the team are role players for the most part so you don't wanna overpay a bunch of them this summer. We could use a solid trade for a starter or a FA pickup like Howard or Hibbert. I wouldn't mind trading Davis or Plumlee as both are centers and if we get a starter we won't need both of them.

More than anything though we gotta be a consistent playoff team. When you have a backcourt like this you are more than likely to be one. I see us going for some trades to get into the draft as some teams have 3-4 picks. Then going for some FAs and sign and trades after that take care of Crabbe(4year deal) and Harkless (2-3year deal) while we let Meyers and Hendo walk (maybe sign and trade Meyers for Ryan Anderson).

Realistic outcome;

Dame/CJ
CJ/Crabbe/Pat
Aminu/Harkless/Draft
Anderson/Vonleh/Harkless
Hibbert/Plumlee

It is pretty amazing they recovered so well from losing LMA. People talked about losing Wes and Rolo, but I kinda looks at them being replaced with Crabbe and Plumlee, and sort of wing by committee having Aminu and Harkless/Hendo the last Blazers team had 2 wings and then a bunch of nobodies, this group is a lot deeper on that front but not as strong or concentrated in talent. Then again I never really believed in the Batum/Wes combo without having LMA. He was the real gut check loss of the summer and they have answered that bell quite nicely. I think we are gonna roll out a good team in November if health allows it.

[Norm2953]

One must be realistic in evaluating the Blazers for its likely the Clippers would have beat us
if CP3 had not broken his hand. As it stands, I would find it hard to believe Portland would
be favored over any of the other 7 teams left in the playoffs.

I do think NO will take a hard look at the roster for he had no problem allowing Wes, Rolo,
AAA walk with no real effort to retain them and traded Nic because he felt he would walk
this off season. He will look at the RFA's on the roster and allow the market set their
price. He'll likely will attempt to keep with Crabbe or Henderson but will have no problem
allow them to walk if he gets a max free agent to sign. I'd find it hard to believe the guy
Orlando (Harkless) gave away for nothing would get a large FA offer. Meyers is an unknown
but being on the shelf suggests he'll get no FA offers and likely will get a 1 year deal to prove
himself.

[Blazer50]

Portland will be very lucky if running out of cap space becomes an issue.

Agreed, given our success in free agency. I do see more upside to Harkless and Crabbe and would try to retain them. But Stott's system is built around offense. If he can get a post scoring option it is going to free up Lillard and CJ. Whitesides might be a solution - or could become a over paid bust. Not enough of a track record to predict. Clearly, Kevin Love is not working in Cleveland and might be moved. While he would be a good fit - signed for a long term and could be 'the man' - Portland is not where he wants to play. The Bucks are unhappy with Monroe and have deemed him a bust at 16 and 9, with a strong game to 12 to 15 feet. He has all the tangibles to be a good defender and works on his game, but team defense is a system players have to grow into - recognize and react to situations and trust that everyone is on the same page. The Blazers have finally realized some of those traits and will be able to add more nuances to their defense as the guys play together.

The Blazer should make a 3rd try to acquire Monroe - (Blazers are ready for the Playoffs) - and let him grow with this team. They would need a guarantee he would be willing to resign but he looks like their best option. They will have to move some player in the deal (doubt that cap space alone will get it done) but the Blazers have a number of guys who should be appealing in a deal - even a sign and trade with Gerald Henderson who would be a good fit. (Henderson would have to want to go to the Bucks, but would probably start).

I agree with the SF need, but KD might say No to NO and who would you target? DeRozan, Fournier and Barnes are restricted - IE not moving and do Bazemore or Evan Turner move the needle over Harkless/Crabbe and Aminu? The Blazers need to upgrade now as most of the their cap space will run out after they start resigning the guys they're looking to keep.

[GreenRiddler]

[but team defense is a system players have to grow into - recognize and react to situations and trust that everyone is on the same page. The Blazers have finally realized some of those traits and will be able to add more nuances to their defense as the guys play together.

Yeah something people forget is that 2013/14 squad with Lopez looked downright awful on defense at times (Especially vs the rockets), even though they had 4 guys who had just played a whole year together in LMA Dame Wes and Nic. Only to bounce back the next year after they got to learn the schemes and each other to be a top 5 defense for more than half the year. This is an entirely new squad from top to bottom, they'll get better as the years come, with some tweaks like we did when we got Lopez. NeO said he thinks they will in a article talking about the blazers defense back in Feb/March.

[GreenRiddler]

Quick, when was the last time a team won a championship when it's two biggest weapons were 6'3"?

Remember when people use to say you had to have a dominating Pf or Center to win a championship? From Wilt to Kareem to Olajuwon to Walton to Shaq, David Robinson, Duncan, Gasol, Garnett and Nowitzki. Now you can't even play traditional bigs in the finals Times change fella.

We did just fine with our gaurds as weapons having a top 8 offense. First it was you can' be in the playoffs with them, now its you can't win it out with them. I'll see them fail before I deal in absolutes with them.

[Wizenheimer]

I have to say if we're down to discussing replacing Plumlee with Greg Monroe or Roy Hibbert, we're aiming mighty low. It's interesting to compare some of their numbers...

rebounds/36:

Ed Davis 12.8
Greg Monroe 10.8
Mason Plumlee 10.8
Roy Hibbert 7.6

total rebound %:

Ed Davis 19.3
Greg Monroe 17.2
Mason Plumlee 16.3
Roy Hibbert 11.4


assists/36:

Mason Plumlee 3.9
Greg Monroe 2.8
Ed Davis 1.9
Roy Hibbert 1.8

PER:

Greg Monroe (PER measures production & Monroe attempts twice a many FG's and carries a high usage rate)
Ed Davis
Mason Plumlee
Roy Hibbert

usage rate: { 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV)) }:

Greg Monroe 23.5
Mason Plumlee 17.1
Roy Hibbert 12.9
Ed Davis 12.7

FT Rate:

Mason Plumlee .648
Ed Davis .605
Roy Hibbert .353
Greg Monroe .327

win shares/48:

Ed Davis .192
Greg Monroe .155
Mason Plumlee .140
Roy Hibbert .056

offensive box plus/minus:

Greg Monroe 1.3
Ed Davis 0.8
Mason Plumlee -0.2
Roy Hibbert -3.1

defensive box plus/minus:

Mason Plumlee 3.0
Ed Davis 2.5
Roy Hibbert 1.9
Greg Monroe 0.2

total box plus/minus:

Ed Davis 3.3
Mason Plumlee 2.8
Greg Monroe 1.5
Roy Hibbert -1.3

value over replacement:

Mason Plumlee 2.5
Ed Davis 2.3
Greg Monroe 2.1
Roy Hibbert 0.3

and then, there are the Real Plus/Minus stats. ESPN tracks and ranks 77 NBA C's....

OffensiveRPM:

9 Greg Monroe 0.56
12 Mason Plumlee 0.39
20 Ed Davis -0.33
75 Roy Hibbert -3.81

DefensiveRPM:

14 Ed Davis 2.84
33 Mason Plumlee 1.91
45 Roy Hibbert 1.22
61 Greg Monroe 0.16

TotalRPM:

17 Ed Davis 2.51
19 Mason Plumlee 2.30
33 Greg Monroe 0.72
73 Roy Hibbert -2.59

Estimated RPM Wins Contributed:

13 Mason Plumlee 7.27
18 Ed Davis 5.95
22 Greg Monroe 5.55
56 Roy Hibbert 0.65

now, I know that sometimes, even a detailed statistical comparison can mislead a bit, but I think some things seem pretty apparent. For instance, Hibbert sure would not appear to be any kind of an upgrade. And he's dinosaur slow

as to Monroe, yes he's arguably the strongest offensively. But he does have that 23.5% usage rate which would be pretty awkward with Lillard and CJ already combining for 58.4% usage. And keep in mind, Plumlee's 17% usage rate is skewed a bit high because oh his high FT rate

but the thing is, Monroe is not a good defender and he's practically no rim protector at all. That shows up in several of those defensive gauges. That's a problem because while Portland is 2nd in the NBA in opponent FG% at the rim, they are 28th in opponent 3ptFG% and dead last in opponent FG% in the 16' < 3pt zone. Portland is dead last in the NBA in opponent FG% from 16' and beyond.

In other words with their perimeter defense being the worst in the league, adding a starting C that ranks toward the bottom in almost every defensive gauge seems to insure their defense getting even worse then it already is. I'd seriously doubt that Monroe's offensive production would offset the decline in defense, especially considering his high usage rate

[Norm2953]

i Do think one of the first things NO will try to do is extend Plumlee while the price is reasonable. No
need to extend CJ, for that would allow Portland to listen to trade offers.

The goal this off season is to build a roster that can compete in the playoffs. Got to get a lot tougher
and defensively sound. Adding a solid, defensively oriented guard if we go long term with Dame and
CJ is going to be a must

[blazersbucs40]

If the goal is to get tough defensively, I don't think the priority will be extend an offer to Plumlee. Portland will never be a good/great defensive team with Plumlee starting.

[Downtown]

From what I've seen of Plumlee this season I would keep him and search for a power forward that can be a good help defender while still being a decent threat offensively who can pull a defender out a little bit with a decent jumpshot. Nothing fancy but just reliable in different facets. I guess I'm looking for the type who stays within his role and is stronger and longer inside and is a decent shot blocker.

I do think Vonleh has the potential but I don't know if he gets the nod next season to expend his role under Stotts. They need a more polished player to step in. I think Davis is good at his role but that's where I would keep him as a combo player off the bench.

The exact style of player I have in mind is Myles Turner although I know that's hard to get. But that type. At one time I thought Clint Capella could become that player but he didn't progress much. Tariq Black also has the same potential. And as I said earlier I would take a low cost chance on Christian Wood.

I suppose there's plenty of big, athletic power forwards with potential that haven't proven they can become more than they are but there's always that one that does once in a while. Maybe I'm just digging for fool's gold.

And I'll say it again. Evan Turner. Pair him with Lillard and have McCollum as the super sixth man when Turner and Lillard are resting. I would rather pay Turner $10mil than Crabbe.