I've Got it All Figured Out

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Nowhere in here have I disparaged Wall. I think the Wizards ain't winning jack any time soon. FREE WALL TO GO WIN NOW, while the team is clearly rebuilding and Wall's trade value is at its apex.

Mostly 80s, I just don't see winning until Grunfeld is gone. Why not try to let this new coach do it right from the ground up?

80s, your post IMO is CLASSIC projection. I could have responded, "At least you're consistent about your dislike for COUSINS."

Why not wait and see if Brooks can help Wall (and possibly Beal) improve as a player? Brooks says he sees the current Zards as a playoff team. I don't think he's at all interested in blowing the team up and starting from the ground up.

Plus, it is kind of academic isn't it? I mean, Ernie is not going to trade Wall, and I'll be shocked if Beal isn't back w/ a max salary next year.

Still, from a purely rational perspective I think CCJ is correct. Especially because we have so little to work with -- 6 players under contract (assuming we re-sign Beal), pretty narrow cap room, and meagre future assets.

It's hard to see us getting a lot better any time soon. First off, how are we going to sign a top-tier FA when he doesn't know what the personnel will be of the team he'd be joining?

So, we have to start by adding maybe 5 guys to fill out the roster at a higher level than what we've had. That won't be easy, because we have no one to trade and we've already given away both our picks this year and one of our picks next year. We'll have to sign FAs for those slots, and with the cap going up radically guys at every level will be making more than they would have last year.

Given that, and re-signing Beal for max or near max, we just won't have a lot $$ to work with when we try to find that top tier guy. We've kind of painted ourselves into a corner. That's where the impetus comes from to just reboot. But... that can't happen, because if Ernie does that he's explicitly admitting the mess he's made over the last 5 years; you know he isn't going to do that.

[DCZards]

DCZ, Wall has peaked and IMO the ONLY things that Wall can improve on with emphasis are his FT frequency and his halfcourt decisionmaking (TOs/forced jumpers). One needs to go up the rest down. Brooks could try and foster in Wall a better sense of when to attack and when to trust teammates more/defer.

ccj, I think JWall will be well on his way to being a much better player if Brooks can help him improve in those areas where you think he's capable of getting better--more FTs, fewer turnovers and forced jumpers, knowing when to attack the basket.

[willbcocks]

I just want to go on the record and say I'm on board with a reboot, and Sacto would probably be a decent trading partner for Wall. Wall's a very good player on a good contract, so he should net us a very high return, but he's not a superstar you would regret trading for the next 10 years.

With that said, there is no way this actually happens. We are staying the course, whatever it is.

[payitforward]

DCZ, Wall has peaked and IMO the ONLY things that Wall can improve on with emphasis are his FT frequency and his halfcourt decisionmaking (TOs/forced jumpers). One needs to go up the rest down. Brooks could try and foster in Wall a better sense of when to attack and when to trust teammates more/defer.

ccj, I think JWall will be well on his way to being a much better player if Brooks can help him improve in those areas where you think he's capable of getting better--more FTs, fewer turnovers and forced jumpers, knowing when to attack the basket.

But Zards, surely any player will be better if he improves in the areas where he is weak. I.e. this same statement could be made about Bradley Beal or Temple (substituting different lists of skills of course). Or about the worst player in the league, whoever that is.

John Wall will turn 26 in a few months. There must be a few examples of guys who became much better players at 26, but I can't think of any right off. In particular I can't think of any point guards that's true of.

Hmmm... it might be true of Jason Kidd, come to think of it. That would be a pretty good model if it fits Wall!

[TheSecretWeapon]

Having looked at Kidd's first few years compared to Wall's, I don't think it's a comparison that holds up. Kidd's best season in my database was at age...25. He had a season of similar quality at 29. Through six seasons, Kidd had a peak PPA (my overall stat where 100 = average and higher is better) of 208 compared to Wall's best of 151 (the 2014-15 season). Kidd's "worst" season was his rookie year -- a 122. Wall's first two seasons were worse (93 and 110, respectively).

One way in which the comparison MIGHT offer encouragement is that the best year's of Kidd's career happened after age 25 -- from 25 to 33. His first four seasons were the least productive four-year period of his career. Overall, though, Kidd was a lot better than Wall, even comparing starts to careers.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Having looked at Kidd's first few years compared to Wall's, I don't think it's a comparison that holds up. Kidd's best season in my database was at age...25. He had a season of similar quality at 29. Through six seasons, Kidd had a peak PPA (my overall stat where 100 = average and higher is better) of 208 compared to Wall's best of 151 (the 2014-15 season). Kidd's "worst" season was his rookie year -- a 122. Wall's first two seasons were worse (93 and 110, respectively).

One way in which the comparison MIGHT offer encouragement is that the best year's of Kidd's career happened after age 25 -- from 25 to 33. His first four seasons were the least productive four-year period of his career. Overall, though, Kidd was a lot better than Wall, even comparing starts to careers.

Kev, I think Derek Harper with the Mavs might be an example of a player who got better after age 25. Just from memory, I recall him improving as his career progressed.

What does your database say about his numbers?

Also, weren't Derek (not Ron) Harper's PPA numbers about as good as Wall's?

EDITED: Looking at basketball reference his stats didn't get better. My recollection is off.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Having looked at Kidd's first few years compared to Wall's, I don't think it's a comparison that holds up. Kidd's best season in my database was at age...25. He had a season of similar quality at 29. Through six seasons, Kidd had a peak PPA (my overall stat where 100 = average and higher is better) of 208 compared to Wall's best of 151 (the 2014-15 season). Kidd's "worst" season was his rookie year -- a 122. Wall's first two seasons were worse (93 and 110, respectively).

One way in which the comparison MIGHT offer encouragement is that the best year's of Kidd's career happened after age 25 -- from 25 to 33. His first four seasons were the least productive four-year period of his career. Overall, though, Kidd was a lot better than Wall, even comparing starts to careers.

Kev, I think Derek Harper with the Mavs might be an example of a player who got better after age 25. Just from memory, I recall him improving as his career progressed.

What does your database say about his numbers?

Also, weren't Derek (not Ron) Harper's PPA numbers about as good as Wall's?

EDITED: Looking at basketball reference his stats didn't get better. My recollection is off.

Yeah. Derek Harper started slower than Wall -- 56 as a rookie, a 101 in year two. He was up to 146 in year three, and then a 173 in his 4th season. That's Harper's career peak, and better than any season Wall has posted through six seasons. Harper's age in that peak season: 25. He had four more seasons at about Wall's level (147, 145, 160, 142) before dropping off to around average through most of the rest of his lengthy career. Harper's PPA after six seasons: 133. Wall's after six: 130.

Ron Harper doesn't really work (for me) as a comp for Wall. He started his career as a SG; he didn't become a PG until much later. His best season was a 170 PPA at age...25. Then he wrecked his knee and was never quite the same again. He became a useful player in his 30s as a low-usage PG to Jordan's SG. From 1995-96 to 1997-98, Ron Harper was similarly productive to Wall, albeit in a totally different way (PPAs: 139, 138, 131). Those were ages 32-34. Basically, Harper was a low-usage guy who made few negative plays. Wall makes lots of good plays, but lots of bad plays too.

When I run my doppelganger machine on Harper's best season, the "most similar" seasons were posted by Clyde Drexler, Scottie Pippen, James Worthy and Alvin Robertson.

Same thing for Derek Harper's best season, and I get seasons posted by Mike Conley, Jeff Teague. Steve Nash, Kenny Anderson, Mark Jackson and Ty Lawson.

[Ruzious]

Steve Nash broke out as a superstar in the season he turned 26, but he showed the signs in his age 25 season - when he only played about 27 minutes per game.

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Having looked at Kidd's first few years compared to Wall's, I don't think it's a comparison that holds up. Kidd's best season in my database was at age...25. He had a season of similar quality at 29. Through six seasons, Kidd had a peak PPA (my overall stat where 100 = average and higher is better) of 208 compared to Wall's best of 151 (the 2014-15 season). Kidd's "worst" season was his rookie year -- a 122. Wall's first two seasons were worse (93 and 110, respectively).

One way in which the comparison MIGHT offer encouragement is that the best year's of Kidd's career happened after age 25 -- from 25 to 33. His first four seasons were the least productive four-year period of his career. Overall, though, Kidd was a lot better than Wall, even comparing starts to careers.

Oh no, I didn't mean to suggest that Wall was or ever would be as good as Kidd. I meant only what you point out in your 2d para above: that the arc of Kidd's career offered an example of a PG who peaked late. I.e. an exception to the usual case of a player reaching his top plateau at @25, spending a few years at that level, and then declining.

[payitforward]

Steve Nash broke out as a superstar in the season he turned 26, but he showed the signs in his age 25 season - when he only played about 27 minutes per game.

Great call! And Nash got better and better for years -- he peaked well into his 30s.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Having looked at Kidd's first few years compared to Wall's, I don't think it's a comparison that holds up. Kidd's best season in my database was at age...25. He had a season of similar quality at 29. Through six seasons, Kidd had a peak PPA (my overall stat where 100 = average and higher is better) of 208 compared to Wall's best of 151 (the 2014-15 season). Kidd's "worst" season was his rookie year -- a 122. Wall's first two seasons were worse (93 and 110, respectively).

One way in which the comparison MIGHT offer encouragement is that the best year's of Kidd's career happened after age 25 -- from 25 to 33. His first four seasons were the least productive four-year period of his career. Overall, though, Kidd was a lot better than Wall, even comparing starts to careers.

Kev, I think Derek Harper with the Mavs might be an example of a player who got better after age 25. Just from memory, I recall him improving as his career progressed.

What does your database say about his numbers?

Also, weren't Derek (not Ron) Harper's PPA numbers about as good as Wall's?

EDITED: Looking at basketball reference his stats didn't get better. My recollection is off.

Yeah. Derek Harper started slower than Wall -- 56 as a rookie, a 101 in year two. He was up to 146 in year three, and then a 173 in his 4th season. That's Harper's career peak, and better than any season Wall has posted through six seasons. Harper's age in that peak season: 25. He had four more seasons at about Wall's level (147, 145, 160, 142) before dropping off to around average through most of the rest of his lengthy career. Harper's PPA after six seasons: 133. Wall's after six: 130.

Ron Harper doesn't really work (for me) as a comp for Wall. He started his career as a SG; he didn't become a PG until much later. His best season was a 170 PPA at age...25. Then he wrecked his knee and was never quite the same again. He became a useful player in his 30s as a low-usage PG to Jordan's SG. From 1995-96 to 1997-98, Ron Harper was similarly productive to Wall, albeit in a totally different way (PPAs: 139, 138, 131). Those were ages 32-34. Basically, Harper was a low-usage guy who made few negative plays. Wall makes lots of good plays, but lots of bad plays too.

When I run my doppelganger machine on Harper's best season, the "most similar" seasons were posted by Clyde Drexler, Scottie Pippen, James Worthy and Alvin Robertson.

Same thing for Derek Harper's best season, and I get seasons posted by Mike Conley, Jeff Teague. Steve Nash, Kenny Anderson, Mark Jackson and Ty Lawson.

Thanks for your time and great work, Kevin!

Derek Harper was quite a competitor. Unfortunately for him, the Mavericks back then couldn't get past the Showtime Lakers. Harper did his part. I always liked his game. Your database findings confirm that Derek Harper was quite good at his peak.