Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Wizenheimer]

If the goal is to get tough defensively, I don't think the priority will be extend an offer to Plumlee. Portland will never be a good/great defensive team with Plumlee starting.

it's hard seeing the Blazers becoming a good defensive team with the Lillard/CJ back court and the two of them playing 75% of available guard minutes. Forget about great. If you gauge by opponent FG%, the Blazers are last in the NBA in opponent FG% from 16' & beyond. Their perimeter defense sucks and that's not Plumlee's fault

as to Plumlee, the trick is replacing him with a C that would be a clear upgrade defensively while not giving it all back on the offensive end. That might not be so easy to do.

and on the Blazer team, when it comes to so-called defensive numbers, Plumlee ranks very well:

* 4th in steal %
* 2nd in block %
* 1st in defensive rating (tied with Davis)
* 1st in defensive win shares
* 1st in defensive box plus/minus
* 2nd in defensive real plus/minus

I'm not saying that Portland couldn't find a better defensive C...I've seen Plumlee play all season and know he has some significant issues. But it's pretty clear that Plumlee & Davis are the least of Portland's defensive issues. We've seen that in the playoffs as Harkless and sometimes Aminu have been moved onto opposing guards defensively while Portland tries to 'hide' Lillard and CJ on lesser offensive players.

It's also probably too easy to over-emphasize Plumlee's play-making ability. The Blazers are really quite weak in play-making but if the front office can significantly upgrade that area with a couple of new players, Plumlee's importance as the 3rd play-maker would drop quite a bit, and maybe, that would mean going with a stronger defender at C would become a priority. In other words, maybe it's better to expand thinking a bit an go beyond just a Plumlee for player X swap as the starting C; who else comes in could be as big a factor as the starting C swap

[Wizenheimer]

From what I've seen of Plumlee this season I would keep him and search for a power forward that can be a good help defender while still being a decent threat offensively who can pull a defender out a little bit with a decent jumpshot. Nothing fancy but just reliable in different facets. I guess I'm looking for the type who stays within his role and is stronger and longer inside and is a decent shot blocker.

I do think Vonleh has the potential but I don't know if he gets the nod next season to expend his role under Stotts. They need a more polished player to step in. I think Davis is good at his role but that's where I would keep him as a combo player off the bench.

The exact style of player I have in mind is Myles Turner although I know that's hard to get. But that type. At one time I thought Clint Capella could become that player but he didn't progress much. Tariq Black also has the same potential. And as I said earlier I would take a low cost chance on Christian Wood.

I suppose there's plenty of big, athletic power forwards with potential that haven't proven they can become more than they are but there's always that one that does once in a while. Maybe I'm just digging for fool's gold.

I'm kind of a broken record on this, but you've named players that likely wouldn't do what you envision because they wouldn't get the chance to play with Plumlee.

How often has Stotts played Plumlee & Davis together this year? is it less the 10 minutes?

average distance of FG's:

Clint Capela 1.7'
Ed Davis 2.0'
Tarik Black 2.7'
Mason Plumlee 3.5'

Myles Turner 10.8'

Stotts really values spacing and perimeter shooting (overvalues?). He wouldn't be any more likely to play Black or Capella with Plumlee then he does with Davis. Turner is a different matter, but that's understandable, he's a fairly talented player that was taken 11th in the draft. Portland won't be getting their hands on him or a player like him without a lottery pick or trading CJ

I do agree that PF might be a more logical upgrade then C

I mean, would an ideal off-season be letting Meyers and Henderson go while adding Al Horford and Evan Turner? Re-sign Harkless; Crabbe I'm on the fence about but his cap-hold is pretty low.

and yeah, I know Horford is probably a pipe dream.

[Malapropism]

How much money do we have to spend if we keep one Hark/Leonard + Crabbe's caphold?

[blazersbucs40]

I've been in favor of looking at what you can get for CJ. I just think if Portland decides to keep CJ/Lillard you have to upgrade the center spot because of the defensive liability they provide.

If the goal is to get tough defensively, I don't think the priority will be extend an offer to Plumlee. Portland will never be a good/great defensive team with Plumlee starting.

it's hard seeing the Blazers becoming a good defensive team with the Lillard/CJ back court and the two of them playing 75% of available guard minutes. Forget about great. If you gauge by opponent FG%, the Blazers are last in the NBA in opponent FG% from 16' & beyond. Their perimeter defense sucks and that's not Plumlee's fault

as to Plumlee, the trick is replacing him with a C that would be a clear upgrade defensively while not giving it all back on the offensive end. That might not be so easy to do.

and on the Blazer team, when it comes to so-called defensive numbers, Plumlee ranks very well:

* 4th in steal %
* 2nd in block %
* 1st in defensive rating (tied with Davis)
* 1st in defensive win shares
* 1st in defensive box plus/minus
* 2nd in defensive real plus/minus

I'm not saying that Portland couldn't find a better defensive C...I've seen Plumlee play all season and know he has some significant issues. But it's pretty clear that Plumlee & Davis are the least of Portland's defensive issues. We've seen that in the playoffs as Harkless and sometimes Aminu have been moved onto opposing guards defensively while Portland tries to 'hide' Lillard and CJ on lesser offensive players.

It's also probably too easy to over-emphasize Plumlee's play-making ability. The Blazers are really quite weak in play-making but if the front office can significantly upgrade that area with a couple of new players, Plumlee's importance as the 3rd play-maker would drop quite a bit, and maybe, that would mean going with a stronger defender at C would become a priority. In other words, maybe it's better to expand thinking a bit an go beyond just a Plumlee for player X swap as the starting C; who else comes in could be as big a factor as the starting C swap

[Blazer50]

I have seen the statistics but don't see better "viable" alternatives to Greg Monroe - who is probably attainable. Is Al Horford going to be the guy to change the trend - will Whitesides - at 23 find Portland a better destination than staying in Miami? Maybe. But the Blazers have expressed a lot of interest in Monroe and would stand a good chance of putting a package together that could get him. They could certainly keep Monroe - Mason Plumlee and Meyers Leonard together with Vonleh and Alexander to see how everyone develops. That rotation provides as broad a range of skills as any rotation of PF/C's in the league. As to the No defense rap that has been hung on Monroe - if your interested - google this link and it will take you to a series of articles that refute that sentiment - and includes the opinions of Stan Van Gundy and others who have been paid to follow Greg's career. http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2013/7/20/4532946/greg-monroe-athletic-detroit-pistons

The articles do point out his BBIQ - Passing and Steals which are not considered when he does not get 3 blocks as a rim protector.

It may be a bad move, but it has the potential to be a much better play than hoping a Horford or Whitesides favors Portland or that Aldrich / Mozgov / Ezeli's ceilings and health suddenly improve.

Again, Portland is built to win on the Offensive end of the floor and a Go To post presence will only provide Dame & CJ better outside looks and offer the wings a better option when they slash to the hoop. The Blazers might not have to make up 15 point in the paint in every contest. If Horford and DeRozan are on their way - please disregard. Otherwise, Greg Monroe just might be the right guy in Portland. And now he knows he would not share time with LMA and that the Blazers are a playoff team and potential contender with few right moves.

[Blazer50]

How much money do we have to spend if we keep one Hark/Leonard + Crabbe's caphold?

Guaranteed Salary (under contract) $ 47,102,74
Inclusive* (Includeds QO & Non Guaranteed) $ 59,668,805

*(C Alexander / Montero @$874,636 Unguaranteed / Crabbe $2,725,003 / Maurice Harkless & Meyers Leonard @ $4,045,849)

Cap Holds - Additional cost over QOs
Maurice Harkless - $7,235,148 - 4,045,849 - + $ 3,189,254
Meyers Leonard - $7,689,700 - 4,045,849 - + $ 3,643,851
Allen Crabbe - $2,725,003 difference from QO - + $0
Gerald Henderson - $0 Inclusive - $9M Cap Hold - + $9,000,000

Inclusive adjusted from Offers to Cap Holds
1* with Harkless / Crabbe / Leonard $ 66,501,910 (12 players)
2* add Gerald Henderson (bird rgts?) $ 75,501,910 (13 players)

$92M salary Cap less $66.5M is what we have left to spend. ($1.6M more if you waive Alexander and Montero)

[Malapropism]

How much money do we have to spend if we keep one Hark/Leonard + Crabbe's caphold?

Guaranteed Salary (under contract) $ 47,102,74
Inclusive* (Includeds QO & Non Guaranteed) $ 59,668,805

*(C Alexander / Montero @$874,636 Unguaranteed / Crabbe $2,725,003 / Maurice Harkless & Meyers Leonard @ $4,045,849)

Cap Holds - Additional cost over QOs
Maurice Harkless - $7,235,148 - 4,045,849 - + $ 3,189,254
Meyers Leonard - $7,689,700 - 4,045,849 - + $ 3,643,851
Allen Crabbe - $2,725,003 difference from QO - + $0
Gerald Henderson - $0 Inclusive - $9M Cap Hold - + $9,000,000

Inclusive adjusted from Offers to Cap Holds
1* with Harkless / Crabbe / Leonard $ 66,501,910 (12 players)
2* add Gerald Henderson (bird rgts?) $ 75,501,910 (13 players)

$92M salary Cap less $66.5M is what we have left to spend. ($1.6M more if you waive Alexander and Montero)

Interesting. So that is pretty much exactly enough for an Al Horford max. No money left over to spend on anyone else.

[Wizenheimer]

How much money do we have to spend if we keep one Hark/Leonard + Crabbe's caphold?

Portland cap-holds:

Maurice Harkless $7,235,148
Meyers Leonard $7,689,700
Gerald Henderson $9,000,000
Chris Kaman $6,520,800
Brian Roberts $3,711,422
Allen Crabbe $2,725,003

so, your scenario takes about 10 million off of cap-space (renouncing Henderson, Kaman, Roberts and one of Harkless/Leonard)

guaranteed salary and roster charges:

Anderson Varejao (stretched) $1,984,005 (I believe this is inaccurate and it's actuall 1.2 million more)
Al-Farouq Aminu $7,680,965
Ed Davis $6,666,667
Damian Lillard $21,597,000
Noah Vonleh $2,751,360
C.J. McCollum $3,219,579
Mason Plumlee $2,328,530
Pat Connaughton $874,636

about 45 million. If I'm right that Varajao's stretch is 3 years instead of 5, then about 46 million. Add two of the cap-holds you're talking about, and Portland is at about 56 million. But that's for 9 players, so at the minimum, there would be 1.7 million in roster charges, so call it 58 million. With a 92 million cap, that leaves about 34 million in space

[Malapropism]

How much money do we have to spend if we keep one Hark/Leonard + Crabbe's caphold?

Portland cap-holds:

Maurice Harkless $7,235,148
Meyers Leonard $7,689,700
Gerald Henderson $9,000,000
Chris Kaman $6,520,800
Brian Roberts $3,711,422
Allen Crabbe $2,725,003

so, your scenario takes about 10 million off of cap-space (renouncing Henderson, Kaman, Roberts and one of Harkless/Leonard)

guaranteed salary and roster charges:

Anderson Varejao (stretched) $1,984,005 (I believe this is inaccurate and it's actuall 1.2 million more)
Al-Farouq Aminu $7,680,965
Ed Davis $6,666,667
Damian Lillard $21,597,000
Noah Vonleh $2,751,360
C.J. McCollum $3,219,579
Mason Plumlee $2,328,530
Pat Connaughton $874,636

about 45 million. If I'm right that Varajao's stretch is 3 years instead of 5, then about 46 million. Add two of the cap-holds you're talking about, and Portland is at about 56 million. But that's for 9 players, so at the minimum, there would be 1.7 million in roster charges, so call it 58 million. With a 92 million cap, that leaves about 34 million in space

I got around 65 million, which is closer to Blazer50's numbers. Where are you getting the extra 7 million?

Either way, that Lillard contract in hindsight was probably a bad move. Everyone and their mothers knows that Lillard would get his max. If we only had his caphold and not his actual contract amount we could probably finagle our way into two max players this offseason.

[Wizenheimer]

How much money do we have to spend if we keep one Hark/Leonard + Crabbe's caphold?

Portland cap-holds:

Maurice Harkless $7,235,148
Meyers Leonard $7,689,700
Gerald Henderson $9,000,000
Chris Kaman $6,520,800
Brian Roberts $3,711,422
Allen Crabbe $2,725,003

so, your scenario takes about 10 million off of cap-space (renouncing Henderson, Kaman, Roberts and one of Harkless/Leonard)

guaranteed salary and roster charges:

Anderson Varejao (stretched) $1,984,005 (I believe this is inaccurate and it's actuall 1.2 million more)
Al-Farouq Aminu $7,680,965
Ed Davis $6,666,667
Damian Lillard $21,597,000
Noah Vonleh $2,751,360
C.J. McCollum $3,219,579
Mason Plumlee $2,328,530
Pat Connaughton $874,636

about 45 million. If I'm right that Varajao's stretch is 3 years instead of 5, then about 46 million. Add two of the cap-holds you're talking about, and Portland is at about 56 million. But that's for 9 players, so at the minimum, there would be 1.7 million in roster charges, so call it 58 million. With a 92 million cap, that leaves about 34 million in space

I got around 65 million, which is closer to Blazer50's numbers. Where are you getting the extra 7 million?

you said "keep one of Hark/Leonard"...no? I assumed Portland was renouncing the one they didn't keep. there would be the 7 million

Either way, that Lillard contract in hindsight was probably a bad move. Everyone and their mothers knows that Lillard would get his max. If we only had his caphold and not his actual contract amount we could probably finagle our way into two max players this offseason.

yeah, that's a good point. Maybe the cap-charge is his cap-hold until he formally signs his new contract after the moratorium? Might be grasping at a straw there, but there are some clever ways to max space

[Malapropism]

you said "keep one of Hark/Leonard"...no? I assumed Portland was renouncing the one they didn't keep. there would be the 7 million

You're right. I don't know why I added both of them. We can conceivably keep all of them and still have enough for Horford's max, if Leonard takes the QO which I expect him to do.

yeah, that's a good point. Maybe the cap-charge is his cap-hold until he formally signs his new contract after the moratorium? Might be grasping at a straw there, but there are some clever ways to max space

Don't think so. The Spurs delayed Kawhi's max contract extension for this very reason, and it helped them get Aldridge. I'm assuming they got Kawhi's buy in the year prior. No doubt Olshey could have explained the situation to Dame and got Dame's buy in as well.

I'm becoming more and more interested in this Horford thing though. A quick browse around team salary numbers reveals that not many teams will actually have enough cap room to offer Horford his max (starts at 25M). The ones that may have enough room would have to renounce a number of good free agents or are teams that are not competitive enough for Horford to even consider in the first place. Portland offers a pretty unique situation pairing him up with an all-star, a near all-star, and a variety of young role players that are likely to improve, with a stable front office and good coaching staff. Obviously Atlanta is the biggest competitor, but what other teams are we legitimately bidding against?

[Blazer50]

If we sign our guys to their qualifying offers - eliminate Kaman, Roberts and Henderson - I think we are at $66,501,910 with 12 players under contract.

Al Horford would be a 25% max cap guy (at 92M? = $23,000,000) which would allow us to sign him at 88,700,000 under the cap (even if it is a $89M - 25% 22,250,000 + 66,501,910 is $88751,910 so we could keep them and sign him. Once he's signed we can pay our RFA over their cap holds in retaining them and exceed the salary cap which becomes the timing issue with their letting us get Horford signed.

[Matt800]

Well the clear options probably are:
1- Try for Durant
2- Try for DeRozan
3- Whiteside?
4- stay about the same and add a few more guys 27 and younger who could fit the team direction like Portland did last offseason.

I could see Harkless and Crabbe still improving a lot so they'd be nice to keep. Henderson has been great but maybe he's too expensive.

Horford is basically a less good LMA and is on the older side. Doesn't he get injured fairly often too?

[Wizenheimer]

The Spurs delayed Kawhi's max contract extension for this very reason, and it helped them get Aldridge. I'm assuming they got Kawhi's buy in the year prior. No doubt Olshey could have explained the situation to Dame and got Dame's buy in as well.

yeah, you're likely right. We know Dame agreed to a max, 5-year deal. There may even be a signed contact with the terms outlined and only the actual salary undetermined until the cap is calculated

Dame's cap-hold will be about 10.6 million while his salary will be 10-11 million more, meaning the Blazers probably lost that amount of cap-space, and that's significant. It's hard to believe that Olshey, and Dame for that matter, let that kind of leverage vanish because if impatience

I'm becoming more and more interested in this Horford thing though. A quick browse around team salary numbers reveals that not many teams will actually have enough cap room to offer Horford his max (starts at 25M). The ones that may have enough room would have to renounce a number of good free agents or are teams that are not competitive enough for Horford to even consider in the first place. Portland offers a pretty unique situation pairing him up with an all-star, a near all-star, and a variety of young role players that are likely to improve, with a stable front office and good coaching staff. Obviously Atlanta is the biggest competitor, but what other teams are we legitimately bidding against?

what teams could have at least 25 million in cap-space after accounting for likely cap-holds?

* Boston (damn but they are in good shape with salary and those Nets' picks)
* Brooklyn (would any high cailber free agent sign there?)
* Charlotte (tight, but even with Batum's cap-hold they could swing it, I think)
* Chicago (if they renounce Noah)
* Dallas (even with Dirk & Parsons opting out)
* Denver
* Detroit (Drummond's cap-hold leaves them 2 or 3 million under a max offer, but a minor trade could get them there)
* Houston (if Howard opts out & leaves)
* Indiana
* LA Lakers
* Memphis (even with Conley's cap-hold)
* Miami (if Wade re-signs quickly for a discount; and they are a real threat)
* Milwaukee (but they have to think about near future extensions for the Greek and Jabari)
* Minnesota
* New Orleans (if they renounce Anderson, Gordon, & Cole)
* OKC (if Durant leaves)
* Orlando (could have 45-50 million in space and are another threat)
* Philly (yeah, I know that's a laugh but they'll be out there bidding like crazy with 60 million in space)
* Phoenix (have they already gone down the road Portland is heading?)
* Portland
* Sacramento (if they renounce Rondo)
* San Antonio (if Duncan and Manu retire and they decline option on Diaw)
* Utah
* Washington (if they renounce Nene & Dudley)

I don't know...that's 24 teams that could end up with at least 25 million in space. A few won't obviously, unless big time players all migrate. Frankly, knowing this is very likely Portland's last, best opportunity to us space for several years, seeing all the competition is pretty depressing

I may have been the fist one to really start pushing Horford's name around here, although I'd imagine others have mentioned him. But I know it's a real long shot. Horford is from the Dominican Republic and reportedly would like to play where there is some Dominican people and culture. I believe his family lives in either the Republic or Florida. He played college ball at Florida and has spent his entire career in Atlanta. That's why I mentioned Miami and Orlando as legitimate threats. Oregon is about as far away, geographically and culturally, from the Republic as you can get in the NBA

[Wizenheimer]

If we sign our guys to their qualifying offers - eliminate Kaman, Roberts and Henderson - I think we are at $66,501,910 with 12 players under contract.

Al Horford would be a 25% max cap guy (at 92M? = $23,000,000) which would allow us to sign him at 88,700,000 under the cap (even if it is a $89M - 25% 22,250,000 + 66,501,910 is $88751,910 so we could keep them and sign him. Once he's signed we can pay our RFA over their cap holds in retaining them and exceed the salary cap which becomes the timing issue with their letting us get Horford signed.

a player accepting and signing his QO is very rare, and until that happens, the QO's don't go on a team's cap, the cap-holds do and they are almost always much higher

you're right with the math though, if Portland carries the cap-holds of Harkless, Leonard, and Crabbe, they'd have around 26-28 million in space

you're incorrect on Horford's max though. He just finished his 9th season season so he's entitled to the 30% max. Keep in mind that the 30% multiplier isn't actually 30%:

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. In 2005 the sides negotiated a different formula for setting the salary cap but not maximum salaries, so the two became decoupled, and this continued in the 2011 agreement. For this reason the maximum salaries are not actually 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap, and instead are a slightly lower amount. For example, even though the salary cap for 2011-12 is $58.044 million and 25% of this amount is $14.511 million, the 0-6 year maximum salary is actually $12,922,194.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16

This is why the estimate of Lillard's max salary next season is about 23% of the projected 92 million cap. For Horford, it will probably be a bit above 28% which is approaching 26 million in first year salary and be about 27.5 million a year...ouch!

[Blazinaway]

If we sign our guys to their qualifying offers - eliminate Kaman, Roberts and Henderson - I think we are at $66,501,910 with 12 players under contract.

Al Horford would be a 25% max cap guy (at 92M? = $23,000,000) which would allow us to sign him at 88,700,000 under the cap (even if it is a $89M - 25% 22,250,000 + 66,501,910 is $88751,910 so we could keep them and sign him. Once he's signed we can pay our RFA over their cap holds in retaining them and exceed the salary cap which becomes the timing issue with their letting us get Horford signed.

a player accepting and signing his QO is very rare, and until that happens, the QO's don't go on a team's cap, the cap-holds do and they are almost always much higher

you're right with the math though, if Portland carries the cap-holds of Harkless, Leonard, and Crabbe, they'd have around 26-28 million in space

you're incorrect on Horford's max though. He just finished his 9th season season so he's entitled to the 30% max. Keep in mind that the 30% multiplier isn't actually 30%:

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. In 2005 the sides negotiated a different formula for setting the salary cap but not maximum salaries, so the two became decoupled, and this continued in the 2011 agreement. For this reason the maximum salaries are not actually 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap, and instead are a slightly lower amount. For example, even though the salary cap for 2011-12 is $58.044 million and 25% of this amount is $14.511 million, the 0-6 year maximum salary is actually $12,922,194.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16

This is why the estimate of Lillard's max salary next season is about 23% of the projected 92 million cap. For Horford, it will probably be a bit above 28% which is approaching 26 million in first year salary and be about 27.5 million a year...ouch!

I just think a Horford max is too much for what we get, if you add in CJ the following yr we'd have 3 guys makin approx 75 mil and probably not one top 10 player,

[Wizenheimer]

I just think a Horford max is too much for what we get, if you add in CJ the following yr we'd have 3 guys makin approx 75 mil and probably not one top 10 player,

that's certainly a valid perspective

you can justify Lillard making 25million/year just because of his position on the team and what he's done and likely to do

but salaries will normalize to the new cap in a hurry. Most teams, and that includes Portland won't get a 2 or 3 year window of cap-space as they transition from old-reality salaries to new-reality salaries. They'll only get one off-season

while you can justify Lillard making 25 million/year, it's a lot harder to justify Horford, and even harder, IMO, to justify CJ making that much

because once contracts normalize to the new TV reality, the mathematical logic becomes the same as the old logic, that being that any small market team really can't afford to carry more then two max or near max players. That's what OKC has been blocked by. And looking at Durant/Westbrook with the idea of comparing them to Lillard/CJ really puts things in perspective. If OKC is stuck below championship level with two top-10 players making near max salaries, what will be Portland's situation if they are paying Lillard/CJ the relative same in terms of max salary, because for damn sure Lillard/CJ aren't in the same tier as the OKC pair

but that's the dilemma. I don't think Portland is going to climb much higher if CJ is their 2nd best player. Too many good teams have better 2nd options, and frankly, quite a few have better 1st options then Lillard. But if Portland's starting guards are making 50 million a year, it's going to be extremely difficult to find a better 2nd option simply because of cap math. It's a treadmill IMO, but maybe a treadmill will still keep people in the stands if it's an entertaining treadmill with likable actors

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Horford is basically a less good LMA and is on the older side. Doesn't he get injured fairly often too?

He's been a better defender and has better advanced metrics - Aldridge is the higher volume scorer (though Horford is better from 3) but passing & defense he has the edge.

Injury-wise, he's torn each of his pectoral muscles but besides that has played 70+ games pretty consistently - nothing that looks like it will cause recurring problems. At 29 he's a little older but big men with good skills tend to age well. It would be a "win-now" move when most of our roster isn't quite there yet.



The more I look into him, the more I like Marvin Williams. He rates surprisingly well in terms of rim protection stats, and shoots 40% from 3 as a 6'9 combo forward. He is also 29 though and has never really stuck anywhere. Ryan Anderson is 2 years younger and a more dynamic offensive player (although much worse defensively).

[Malapropism]

The Spurs delayed Kawhi's max contract extension for this very reason, and it helped them get Aldridge. I'm assuming they got Kawhi's buy in the year prior. No doubt Olshey could have explained the situation to Dame and got Dame's buy in as well.

yeah, you're likely right. We know Dame agreed to a max, 5-year deal. There may even be a signed contact with the terms outlined and only the actual salary undetermined until the cap is calculated

Dame's cap-hold will be about 10.6 million while his salary will be 10-11 million more, meaning the Blazers probably lost that amount of cap-space, and that's significant. It's hard to believe that Olshey, and Dame for that matter, let that kind of leverage vanish because if impatience

I'm becoming more and more interested in this Horford thing though. A quick browse around team salary numbers reveals that not many teams will actually have enough cap room to offer Horford his max (starts at 25M). The ones that may have enough room would have to renounce a number of good free agents or are teams that are not competitive enough for Horford to even consider in the first place. Portland offers a pretty unique situation pairing him up with an all-star, a near all-star, and a variety of young role players that are likely to improve, with a stable front office and good coaching staff. Obviously Atlanta is the biggest competitor, but what other teams are we legitimately bidding against?

what teams could have at least 25 million in cap-space after accounting for likely cap-holds?

* Boston (damn but they are in good shape with salary and those Nets' picks)
* Brooklyn (would any high cailber free agent sign there?)
* Charlotte (tight, but even with Batum's cap-hold they could swing it, I think)
* Chicago (if they renounce Noah)
* Dallas (even with Dirk & Parsons opting out)
* Denver
* Detroit (Drummond's cap-hold leaves them 2 or 3 million under a max offer, but a minor trade could get them there)
* Houston (if Howard opts out & leaves)
* Indiana
* LA Lakers
* Memphis (even with Conley's cap-hold)
* Miami (if Wade re-signs quickly for a discount; and they are a real threat)
* Milwaukee (but they have to think about near future extensions for the Greek and Jabari)
* Minnesota
* New Orleans (if they renounce Anderson, Gordon, & Cole)
* OKC (if Durant leaves)
* Orlando (could have 45-50 million in space and are another threat)
* Philly (yeah, I know that's a laugh but they'll be out there bidding like crazy with 60 million in space)
* Phoenix (have they already gone down the road Portland is heading?)
* Portland
* Sacramento (if they renounce Rondo)
* San Antonio (if Duncan and Manu retire and they decline option on Diaw)
* Utah
* Washington (if they renounce Nene & Dudley)

I don't know...that's 24 teams that could end up with at least 25 million in space. A few won't obviously, unless big time players all migrate. Frankly, knowing this is very likely Portland's last, best opportunity to us space for several years, seeing all the competition is pretty depressing

I may have been the fist one to really start pushing Horford's name around here, although I'd imagine others have mentioned him. But I know it's a real long shot. Horford is from the Dominican Republic and reportedly would like to play where there is some Dominican people and culture. I believe his family lives in either the Republic or Florida. He played college ball at Florida and has spent his entire career in Atlanta. That's why I mentioned Miami and Orlando as legitimate threats. Oregon is about as far away, geographically and culturally, from the Republic as you can get in the NBA

I am looking at: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nbas-bestworst-case-2016-17-cap-projections/

And yes I know its not the most up to date numbers but its a good summary for most teams.

* Boston - Definitely a competitor, but will they spend their time chasing other players like Butler/Cousins?
* Brooklyn - Yeah, Horford isn't coming here.
* Charlotte - Would require renouncing Lee, Lin, Jefferson and Williams. Do-able, but a very big long shot and they probably need to make Batum a priority first anyways. The remaining roster would be pretty barren.
* Chicago (if they renounce Noah) - 22.5M max room even if they renounce Noah and Gasol, can't offer a max.
* Dallas - If Horford signs here it would require Dirk to take another paycut. Everyone on the team is old and declining, can't see how this is a winning situation for Horford.
* Denver - Bad team, and Denver has their own bigs they want to develop. (Jokic, Nurkic)
* Detroit - 78 Million with Drummonds cap hold. Not getting it done. Plus Stan likes Harris at the 4.
* Indiana - Threat if they ditch Mahinmi, but Bird wants to go small, and a Horford/Turner lineup is not exactly that. But a threat nonetheless.
* LA Lakers - Yeah no.
* Memphis - What is there to gain here? Memphis has bigger holes to fill than their frontcourt.
* Miami - Wade has said he's not taking a paycut after this year. Plus they want to resign Whiteside. Conceivably they can find a way to sign all three, but that roster would be completely depleted. If Bosh is able to come off the books for some reason then we have a problem.
* Milwaukee - They would have to dump all their free agents and probably Monroe too, or else there's no minutes. Imbalanced roster, they have more pressing needs.
* Minnesota - I concede that this is a big threat.
* New Orleans - Horford/Davis/Holiday/No One is better than Horford/CJ/Lillard/Role Players? Not sure about that.
* OKC - Horford should be gone by the time Durant makes his decision. If Durant is gone, why is Horford coming here?
* Orlando - This is also a threat, but I don't like the Magic's "core" or their front office. They already have a lot of starting calibre front court players.
* Philly - Yeah no.
* Phoenix - Yeah no.
* Portland -
* Sacramento - Yeah no
* San Antonio - Long shot. Duncan and Ginobili will probably be back, as will Diaw. Either way they would have to move Danny Green.
* Utah - Favors/Gobert, doubtful.
* Washington - They're going to be twiddling their thumbs for Durant. They're not going to show Horford the respect he deserves. Not a playoff team anyways.

I understand the home thing though, and it is definitely a long shot. But if Olshey doesn't push hard to see if there is some mutual interest then he's not doing a good job. I have to imagine there at least is a tiny bit of mutual interest, no?

[Malapropism]

I just think a Horford max is too much for what we get, if you add in CJ the following yr we'd have 3 guys makin approx 75 mil and probably not one top 10 player,

that's certainly a valid perspective

you can justify Lillard making 25million/year just because of his position on the team and what he's done and likely to do

but salaries will normalize to the new cap in a hurry. Most teams, and that includes Portland won't get a 2 or 3 year window of cap-space as they transition from old-reality salaries to new-reality salaries. They'll only get one off-season

while you can justify Lillard making 25 million/year, it's a lot harder to justify Horford, and even harder, IMO, to justify CJ making that much

because once contracts normalize to the new TV reality, the mathematical logic becomes the same as the old logic, that being that any small market team really can't afford to carry more then two max or near max players. That's what OKC has been blocked by. And looking at Durant/Westbrook with the idea of comparing them to Lillard/CJ really puts things in perspective. If OKC is stuck below championship level with two top-10 players making near max salaries, what will be Portland's situation if they are paying Lillard/CJ the relative same in terms of max salary, because for damn sure Lillard/CJ aren't in the same tier as the OKC pair

but that's the dilemma. I don't think Portland is going to climb much higher if CJ is their 2nd best player. Too many good teams have better 2nd options, and frankly, quite a few have better 1st options then Lillard. But if Portland's starting guards are making 50 million a year, it's going to be extremely difficult to find a better 2nd option simply because of cap math. It's a treadmill IMO, but maybe a treadmill will still keep people in the stands if it's an entertaining treadmill with likable actors

I tend to agree with this opinion, but if I'm being absolutely honest, I would say that the improvement has to come from within. Certainly you have guys like Durant and Davis that are on the superstar trajectory from day 1, but there are many top 10 players that developed out of unlikely growth. You can make an argument that Curry would make the leap, but the leap from 21 PER all-star to 30 PER all time great is still unprecedented. Likewise Draymond Green turning from a rookie second rounder shooting 29% to DPOY superstar and triple double threat was something no one could have predicted (and this is without even talking about Klay Thompson). Then you have Kawhi Leonard, a good player for sure, but top 5? Don't think people could have guessed that one either.

Looking at our guys obviously Dame and CJ are the most likely candidates for making that jump. Dame in my opinion, is likely maxed or close to maxed out as a player. You can probably expect incremental improvements for a few more years before plateauing and declining. I think CJ though, has tremendous upside for improvement. I think he can reach Dame's current status or like an early career Curry. Looking at the other guys on the roster, Harkless has shown the ability to be a two-way threat. He's got the skillset and the size. Plus he has youth on his side. Crabbe is another guy that I would look to improve. Aminu has the tools but.....lol let's just not go there. Another factor is that players can look better based on roster compilation. I think we can all agree that the current roster has a lot of holes and is not suited to taking the most advantage of our two best players. That is something that can be improved as the years go on but it requires solid and sometimes unspectacular decision making.

And yes I realize the chance of any of these guys reaching borderline all-star status let alone bonafide star is extremely low, but everything I have read and seen about Olshey suggests that his forte is talent evaluation and player development. I have no choice but to put my faith in his ability to make correct basketball decisions because quite frankly the alternative is a Philly style "process", and no matter how much the math makes sense I can't (won't) bring myself to root for a team that aims to lose.