Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Wizenheimer]

How's DD as a spot up shooter?

Horrendous.

Derozan is awful. He really is, for all intents and purposes, a midrange jumpshooter. He doesn't do anything else well enough to compensate for his shot selection, and he can get neutralized by any defender with a brain.

call the exaggeration police, crimes being committed

first, it probably depends on how you define spot-up. DD isn't "horrendous" but he's certainly nothing more then mediocre at it, at best. He's a better shooter in the 10-16' zone then Lillard, Aminu, Harkless, & Henderson, but when you get outside of 16' his shooting falls off significantly...below average in the 16' < 3pt zone and from three

and he's not awful.

PER: Derozan 21.7....CJ 17.7
TS%: Derozan .550....CJ .544
FTRate: Derozan .474....CJ .158
WinShares: Derozan 9.9....CJ 6.0
WinShares/48: Derozan .169....CJ .104
offensive box plus/minus: Derozan 2.7....CJ 2.5
defensive box plus/minus: Derozan -1.2....CJ -2.0
box plus/minus: Derozan 1.4....CJ 0.4
value over replacement: Derozan 2.4....CJ 1.7

CJ doesn't even have a play-making advantage over DD. He does average 4.4 assists/36 to DD's 4.0. But because Derozan has a 2.2 vs 2.5 turnover advantage, he actually has a better assist/turnover ratio

the key is that Derozan gets to the FT line. He was 3rd in the NBA this year behind Harden and Cousins in FT's and when he gets there he shoots 85%. So, even though CJ shoots much better then Derozan from 10' and beyond, Derozan is more efficient, averaging 1.33 points/shot to CJ's 1.16 (Lillard at 1.27)

That isn't awful, nor can Derozan be simply dismissed as being a "mid-range jumpshooter"

as I said, he's had a horrible shooting performance in the playoffs so far and that could be enough to eliminate him from consideration

Also, he's completely not a Stotts type player

that may very well be true, but it's not because of overall efficiency or play-making or being a ball-stopper. It would be because of his perimeter shooting. DD is quite a bit better then Harkless from 16' and out, but Harkless only shot about 3 times a game from that distance (about 4 times at the end of the season & playoffs) while Derozan shot more then 6 shots a game out there, and you have to believe he'd get more shots from that distance in a Stotts offense. That would definitely increase the brick-laying

also, he's going to be expensive

[Dangeruss]

This playoff performance could drop his price tag as well

[Blazinaway]

if they would do it i would trade plumlee, aminu, $, & a pick to MIL for monroe. then i would fill in gaps with players who are young, cheap, and have shown promise. of course we do go after a good F/C target. so if i had my way our roster would look like this
Dame/Frazier/Montero
CJ/Crabbe/Connaughton
H.Barnes/Harkless
Monroe/Meyers/Vonleh/Alexander
Dedmon/Davis

what, that is a huge overpay by the Blazers! They will likely trade him for capspace and a late 1st rdr at best IMO

[mactrapper10]

I am not a math wizard, but I was wondering if anyone could break down under what circumstances Portland would be able to take on two max or near max salaries. For the sake of pipe dreams, I had heard at some point that Durant has always wanted to play with Horford. Are there any scenarios where enough cap space could be shed?

[Wizenheimer]

I am not a math wizard, but I was wondering if anyone could break down under what circumstances Portland would be able to take on two max or near max salaries. For the sake of pipe dreams, I had heard at some point that Durant has always wanted to play with Horford. Are there any scenarios where enough cap space could be shed?

near as I can figure, this is the minimum of guaranteed money and cap-charges Portland would have:

Anderson Varejao (stretched) $1,984,005 (I believe this is inaccurate and it's actually 1.2 million more)
Al-Farouq Aminu $7,680,965
Ed Davis $6,666,667
Damian Lillard $21,597,000
Noah Vonleh $2,751,360
C.J. McCollum $3,219,579
Mason Plumlee $2,328,530
Pat Connaughton $874,636

that's about 47.1 million. But that's not all. If Varajao's stretch is a 3 year stretch instead of a 5 year stretch (by my reading of the CBA it is), then Portland is at about 48.3 million. Since that is only for 7 players, Portland would have to absorb 5 roster charges of 543K...

that would bump the Blazers up to 51 million. The cap is projected to be 92 million, so, after renouncing Harkless, Crabbe, Henderson, Meyers, Kaman & Roberts, and then waiving Montero and Alexander the Blazers would have about 41 million in cap-space. Two max deals for 9 year vets would require about 50 million in space

so, even if the Blazers dumped Aminu for a TPE, they would have enough space. The Blazers would have to trade both Aminu and Vonleh for TPE's. By then, I'd think Portland would have lost quite a bit of it's appeal, if it has that much to begin with

Two max deals just don't seem to be in the cards. Besides, Portland, being a small market team, would have a real hard time affording 3 max deals. And then, what to do about CJ the following summer?

Blazers can probably swing one max deal + a smaller deal, or a couple of larger deals that are quite a ways from max and shorter, or 2 or 3 bargain deals, depending on how many of their free agents they re-sign

* like a Durant + Ramon Sessions (yeah I know...pipe dream)

* or a Horford + Evan Turner (I've cooled on Turner a bit, but Blazers do need another ball-handler and he plays good defense)

* Like a Ryan Anderson + Zaza Pachulia (Anderson would pretty consistently be like Aminu on his good nights & Zaza is big and rugged with tons of hustle)

* or a Chandler Parsons + Ian Mahinmi (Parsons, if healthy would be a great fit at SF and a small ball PF; Mahinmi may a better version of Biyombo)

* or a Jon Leuer + Zaza Pachulia + DJ Augustine (going for quantity and a strong bench)

* or a Dwight Howard + Courtney Lee/Kevin Martin (would Howard behave and stay healthy?)

* or a David Lee/(Nene Hilario) + Jared Dudley + Ramon Sessions (Nene is better and plays defense..a poor man's Horford; Dudley stretches defenses; Sessions a ball-handling alternative)

* or a Joachim Noah + Evan Turner (is Noah done or does he need a change?)

you can mix and match or delete all ideas and add others. Main thing is to not just re-sign Crabbe and Meyers without exhausting alternatives

[Soulyss]

if they would do it i would trade plumlee, aminu, $, & a pick to MIL for monroe. then i would fill in gaps with players who are young, cheap, and have shown promise. of course we do go after a good F/C target. so if i had my way our roster would look like this
Dame/Frazier/Montero
CJ/Crabbe/Connaughton
H.Barnes/Harkless
Monroe/Meyers/Vonleh/Alexander
Dedmon/Davis

what, that is a huge overpay by the Blazers! They will likely trade him for capspace and a late 1st rdr at best IMO

Yeah wow that's bad... I have a feeling Monroe will be available for a bag of nickles if anyone wants to absorb that contract.

[skoharry]

i know other teams will probabley give them better offers but i would do a trade of plumlee, aminu, and mccollum for cousins. then we resign crabbe, hendo, and harkless. then i would fill in the roster like so
dame/frazier/montero
stephenson or turner/henderson/connaughton[i know stephenson hasn't had another season like he had in IND. but i think he & dame would play well together. plus he plays better D then turner & is just as good a passer. so he would be my preference]
harkless/crabbe
davis[we need someone like him starting next to cousins]/leuer/vonleh/alexander
cousins/miles plumlee[trade 1 plumlee & sign the other]

i think this team would be doable. no max player guys

[Ripcity4life]

Cousins -- HELL TO THE NO

I would rather try and talk Sheed out of retirement then bring in Cousins the man with a ton of talent and a 10 cent head.

[AllMyNeilOlshey]

Dudley, Motiejunas, Turner, Bazemore, Green, jones, Teletovic...for whatever reason I'm interested in those players. Also any numbers guy want to tell me how a Conley, Lillard back court would look?

[Jsun947]

Let's just say we don't get the free agents that we probably have little to no expectation of getting, whether it's lack of interest, restricted, or something else.

I think these are all names we're unlikely to sign.

Lebron
Durant
Drummond
Beal
Horford
Batum
Parsons
Barnes
Ezeli
Conley
Whiteside
Derozan

Now let's say the big names left are Ryan Anderson and Dwight Howard and both are open to meeting with Portland. Neither can be signed for less than 20 mil per and want 4 year deals.

Do you say no thanks and try to resign your own guys?

The 2017/2018 season will have McCollum's probably max extension on the table along with Lillards new deal. In that scenario those two players will tie up about 56 mil of the projected 109 mil cap effectively leaving about 53 mil. We also have Aminu (7.3) and Davis (6.4) under contract that season. Vonleh has a team option (3.5). That leaves 35.8 mil. If Plumlee isn't extended he'll have a 8.4 mil cap hold. That leaves 27.4 mil.

So basically if we resign any combination of Harkless, Henderson, Crabbe, and Leonard for a total of 27.4 mil or more we'll be totally capped out next offseason. If we resign none of them and don't sign anyone else we can't field a respectable team this coming year. If we resign one of them then we definitely won't have room for a max contract next season.

This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. I think our best chance to improve the team is to use as much cap space as we can this season then resign some of our own guys. At the very least it gives us contracts & assets we can trade going forward.

In that scenario I'd be ok with signing Dwight and taking a chance on him. Then again if it doesn't work out Its a total disaster.

If we got both this would more or less be our main rotation. (we'd have to trade Davis)

Lillard/CJ
CJ/Crabbe
Aminu/Crabbe
Anderson/Aminu
Howard/Plumlee

Or we could go a slightly different route and try something like this by replacing Anderson with less expensive players in Turner & Leuer.

Lillard/CJ
CJ/Crabbe
Aminu/Turner
Leuer/Davis
Howard/Plumlee

[Wizenheimer]

Let's just say we don't get the free agents that we probably have little to no expectation of getting, whether it's lack of interest, restricted, or something else.

I think these are all names we're unlikely to sign.

Lebron
Durant
Drummond
Beal
Horford
Batum
Parsons
Barnes
Ezeli
Conley
Whiteside
Derozan

Now let's say the big names left are Ryan Anderson and Dwight Howard and both are open to meeting with Portland. Neither can be signed for less than 20 mil per and want 4 year deals.

Do you say no thanks and try to resign your own guys?

The 2017/2018 season will have McCollum's probably max extension on the table along with Lillards new deal. In that scenario those two players will tie up about 56 mil of the projected 109 mil cap effectively leaving about 53 mil. We also have Aminu (7.3) and Davis (6.4) under contract that season. Vonleh has a team option (3.5). That leaves 35.8 mil. If Plumlee isn't extended he'll have a 8.4 mil cap hold. That leaves 27.4 mil.

So basically if we resign any combination of Harkless, Henderson, Crabbe, and Leonard for a total of 27.4 mil or more we'll be totally capped out next offseason. If we resign none of them and don't sign anyone else we can't field a respectable team this coming year. If we resign one of them then we definitely won't have room for a max contract next season.

This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. I think our best chance to improve the team is to use as much cap space as we can this season then resign some of our own guys. At the very least it gives us contracts & assets we can trade going forward.

In that scenario I'd be ok with signing Dwight and taking a chance on him. Then again if it doesn't work out Its a total disaster.

If we got both this would more or less be our main rotation. (we'd have to trade Davis)

Lillard/CJ
CJ/Crabbe
Aminu/Crabbe
Anderson/Aminu
Howard/Plumlee

Or we could go a slightly different route and try something like this by replacing Anderson with less expensive players in Turner & Leuer.

Lillard/CJ
CJ/Crabbe
Aminu/Turner
Leuer/Davis
Howard/Plumlee

I'm sorry, but any plan that keeps Crabbe at the expense of Harkless in not a plan I want, especially one that pencils him in as both the backup SG and SG. He's just not good enough

Portland won't have the cap-space, IMO, to get both Howard and Anderson. My guess is it would take 50 million in space, and Portland can't get there without gutting the roster

[Jsun947]

I actually like Crabbe more than Harkless, in paticular on this team so we're in a disagreement there. Crabbe's cap hold being 5 mil less gives us more flexibility too if you have to pick one of them.

I agree about Howard and Anderson. I think Leuer would be a nice fit next to dwight, especially for a quarter of the cost.

[Wizenheimer]

I actually like Crabbe more than Harkless, in paticular on this team so we're in a disagreement there

yeah...sizable disagreement on Crabbe. He can shoot the ball well, at times, but that's about it IMO...he just doesn't do anything else with anything resembling consistency. However, the biggest problem IMO is who is playing ahead of him. Lillard and CJ are just too small and poor a defensive tandem. And Crabbe is just as bad defensively IMO. He gets beat a lot on defense and it's probably been since Greg Oden that any Blazer commits as many stupid fouls as Crabbe does

anyway, with Lillard and CJ being such poor defenders, the Blazers desperately need wings who can cover for them Harkless can do that, Crabbe can't. It's why we've seen Harkless defend Chris Paul (till his injury) and Klay Thompson. Thompson scored 37 points on 50% shooting in game 1 with CJ and Crabbe guarding him. He scored 27 points on 35% shooting with Harkless guarding him in game 2, and 10 of those points came after Harkless fell on his hip. Thompson then scored 35 points on 50% shooting in game 3 when Harkless was limited to 6 minutes. CJ, Crabbe, and Henderson just weren't up to the task of defending him

and last night, with Harkless mainly defending Thompson, Klay score 23 points on 39% shooting

I'll take the defense, rebounding, and paint attacking of Harkless over Crabbe's one dimensional game

Crabbe's cap hold being 5 mil less gives us more flexibility too if you have to pick one of them.

that's true, and it may come down to that, but it's hard for me to imagine scenarios where that would actually be a factor

I agree about Howard and Anderson. I think Leuer would be a nice fit next to dwight, especially for a quarter of the cost

I think I'm more OK with Leuer with Howard, but maybe that's because I think Howard would be extremely expensive and high risk. If those two things were not true, then fine

[Epicurus]

A young team that performed decently during the season and very good in the playoffs. Many of the players are young enough to improve this off-season (using the past season to identify weaknesses). Beyond that, a year under their collective belts of playing together translates easily to better defense and less turnovers the following season. I understand the bias here to change; but I think given this season, the bias to continuity is more warranted.

[zzaj]

...it's probably been since Greg Oden that any Blazer commits as many stupid fouls as Crabbe does

[cough cough]meyers[cough cough]

[JasonStern]

anyone want to talk realistic options? specifically, who will Olshey find dumpster diving? reclamation projects, bad fits, etc.

Kenneth Faried is only 26. he fits the bill of an offensive minded big with porous defense. I wonder what Denver would want? their fans don't seem very high on him, but I imagine the GM sees no real reason to move him just for the sake of moving him, and Portland doesn't have much in the way of assets other than cap space. his contract isn't great, but what exactly is Denver going to do with more cap space? we have the Lakers and Timberwolves 2019 2nd round picks to trade. Olshey loves trading 2nd round picks...

[Jsun947]

I actually like Crabbe more than Harkless, in paticular on this team so we're in a disagreement there

yeah...sizable disagreement on Crabbe. He can shoot the ball well, at times, but that's about it IMO...he just doesn't do anything else with anything resembling consistency. However, the biggest problem IMO is who is playing ahead of him. Lillard and CJ are just too small and poor a defensive tandem. And Crabbe is just as bad defensively IMO. He gets beat a lot on defense and it's probably been since Greg Oden that any Blazer commits as many stupid fouls as Crabbe does

anyway, with Lillard and CJ being such poor defenders, the Blazers desperately need wings who can cover for them Harkless can do that, Crabbe can't. It's why we've seen Harkless defend Chris Paul (till his injury) and Klay Thompson. Thompson scored 37 points on 50% shooting in game 1 with CJ and Crabbe guarding him. He scored 27 points on 35% shooting with Harkless guarding him in game 2, and 10 of those points came after Harkless fell on his hip. Thompson then scored 35 points on 50% shooting in game 3 when Harkless was limited to 6 minutes. CJ, Crabbe, and Henderson just weren't up to the task of defending him

and last night, with Harkless mainly defending Thompson, Klay score 23 points on 39% shooting

I'll take the defense, rebounding, and paint attacking of Harkless over Crabbe's one dimensional game

Crabbe's cap hold being 5 mil less gives us more flexibility too if you have to pick one of them.

that's true, and it may come down to that, but it's hard for me to imagine scenarios where that would actually be a factor

I agree about Howard and Anderson. I think Leuer would be a nice fit next to dwight, especially for a quarter of the cost

I think I'm more OK with Leuer with Howard, but maybe that's because I think Howard would be extremely expensive and high risk. If those two things were not true, then fine

Harkless can't play SG, so if you let Crabbe go then who would you look to fill that spot? Henderson?

[Downtown]

Harkless can't play SG, so if you let Crabbe go then who would you look to fill that spot? Henderson?

Solomon Hill or Evan Turner. Hill is 25 years old and fits the age group with this team.

I'm beginning to think that Jokim Noah could be a definite dark horse candidate. He's always been a team first player who has the leadership qualities and defensive smarts. Of course Olshey would have to do his research on his health and decide if it's worth it but you don't hear Noah's name come up on many free agent discussions so he might be someone who could come in at a fair contract. It's the health stigma that need to be put under the microscope first.

I just can't pin any one name down for power forward so I could see them moving Aminu over full-time next season and re-signing Harkless and have them starting like they are in the playoffs.

[Norm2953]

Wiz:

Could you write something about the different types of max contracts a player can get
for most of us think CJ is going to eventually get a max deal while others like Nic Batum,
Barnes, Howard, Whiteside are UFA will likely get max deals. What about guys like Ezeli
who don't even start for their teams?

I do think Portland would have to be nuts to pay Dame and CJ up to 50 Million a year
no matter how much NO loves CJ.

[Jsun947]

The max contract is based on years in the league. 0-6 years is 25% of the cap, 7-9 years is 30% of the cap, 10+ is 35% of the cap.

The exception to the rule is for players in years 0-6 they can get the 30% max contract by qualifying for the Rose rule. That's if they are all NBA twice, voted as an all star starter twice, or are MVP once.

If the cap is 92 mil then Lillard will start at 23 mil. If he makes the all NBA team though, which is likely he'll start at 27.6 mil instead.

The year McCollum is a free agent the cap is projected at 108 mil and he'll be able to get 25% of that, which would be starting at 27 mil.