Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Wizenheimer]

The max contract is based on years in the league. 0-6 years is 25% of the cap, 7-9 years is 30% of the cap, 10+ is 35% of the cap.

The exception to the rule is for players in years 0-6 they can get the 30% max contract by qualifying for the Rose rule. That's if they are all NBA twice, voted as an all star starter twice, or are MVP once.

If the cap is 92 mil then Lillard will start at 23 mil. If he makes the all NBA team though, which is likely he'll start at 27.6 mil instead.

The year McCollum is a free agent the cap is projected at 108 mil and he'll be able to get 25% of that, which would be starting at 27 mil.

don't mean to quibble with you Jsun, but your numbers are a bit inaccurate...

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. In 2005 the sides negotiated a different formula for setting the salary cap but not maximum salaries, so the two became decoupled, and this continued in the 2011 agreement. For this reason the maximum salaries are not actually 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap, and instead are a slightly lower amount. For example, even though the salary cap for 2011-12 is $58.044 million and 25% of this amount is $14.511 million, the 0-6 year maximum salary is actually $12,922,194

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http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16

right now, Lillard's max contract is projected to be about 23.4% of the cap rather then 25%. IIRC, if you use past deals to extrapolate max 1st year salaries, the multipliers are around 23.4%, 28.6%, and 33.9%

If CJ gets a max deal under a 108 million cap, it would be a 5 year contract with a 1st year salary of about 25 million, maybe a shade higher. That would be about 126 million in base salary and close to 19 million in step raises; around 145 million and about 29 million a season

I seriously doubt the Blazers would pay him that. He should make significantly less then Lillard, who will get about 25 million a season. But historically, players who are starters playing well and showing more potential get about 85-90% of max (like Batum).
And Olshey seems so dead set on CJ being a long term starter it's hard to say what he'd consider. I really hope the Blazers don't end up choking on CJ's extension.

[Ripcity4life]

i agree with Wiz -- i would take hark over Crabbe

IF i was the GM i would offer Hark the following deal: ( note assuming cap gets bumped up by 10 to 15m )

3yr for 21m range

[Blazinaway]

i agree with Wiz -- i would take hark over Crabbe

IF i was the GM i would offer Hark the following deal: ( note assuming cap gets bumped up by 10 to 15m )

3yr for 21m range

I agree with Hark over Crabbe as well however that is assuming we find a few other capable 3 pt shooters in the offseason, and especially some capable offense from the C or Pf/C combo position, it kills me to see Davis and Plumless constantly left alone near the FT line.

[Blazinaway]

BTW if New Orleans decided to blow it up should we consider Marc Gasol if he was "relatively inexpensive" because of his broken foot? It might be a gamble as he's 31 and has 4 yrs left at 22 mil per, but if our med guys cleared him might you take the chance?

[Wizenheimer]

BTW if New Orleans decided to blow it up should we consider Marc Gasol if he was "relatively inexpensive" because of his broken foot? It might be a gamble as he's 31 and has 4 yrs left at 22 mil per, but if our med guys cleared him might you take the chance?

memphis

Gasol would be a nearly ideal C even though the foot is a major concern for a guy his age and size. I have a hard time seeing Memphis trading the a player that has showed such loyalty to the franchise, but I guess it's possible. I think the Blazers would be outbid though if that auction opened up

[zzaj]

BTW if New Orleans decided to blow it up should we consider Marc Gasol if he was "relatively inexpensive" because of his broken foot? It might be a gamble as he's 31 and has 4 yrs left at 22 mil per, but if our med guys cleared him might you take the chance?

It would depend on how that injury looks, of course...but 4 years at 22 per is going to pretty quickly turn into a bargain deal compared to what gets signed this summer and next, IMO.

[Jsun947]

Thanks Wiz. I didn't know that. I just updated the main page to account for those percentages for Lillard's contract and the remaining cap space.

[Wizenheimer]

Thanks Wiz. I didn't know that. I just updated the main page to account for those percentages for Lillard's contract and the remaining cap space.

no problem

it's kind of confusing because everybody talks about the max deals being 25%, 30%, and 35%...which they haven't been in the last 2 CBA's IIRC

it used to be that Sham and Storyteller had the best and most accurate salary lists. But they are defunct.

Now, it may be basketball insiders that are the most accurate. Here's Portland's projection with cap-holds at the bottom of the page:

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/portland-trail-blazers-team-salary/

and of course bbref keeps track:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/

[DusterBuster]

BTW if New Orleans decided to blow it up should we consider Marc Gasol if he was "relatively inexpensive" because of his broken foot? It might be a gamble as he's 31 and has 4 yrs left at 22 mil per, but if our med guys cleared him might you take the chance?

memphis

Gasol would be a nearly ideal C even though the foot is a major concern for a guy his age and size. I have a hard time seeing Memphis trading the a player that has showed such loyalty to the franchise, but I guess it's possible. I think the Blazers would be outbid though if that auction opened up

It's really hard to see what Memphis' plans are. Quite honestly, they are a team that should consider starting over. That team is really over the hill age wise and a reboot would serve them well. I think even if they could keep Conley and manage to keep everyone fairly healthy for the year, the West is going to get stronger. Portland's not going anywhere, Timberwolves are going to be a 40 win team by probably next year imo and you never know when the Pelicans may decide to have another random good season. The West is passing them by.

Though as you mentioned, outbidding Portland on the trade market won't be exactly difficult for most teams. Blazers assets just aren't that appealing quiet honestly. The pieces the Blazers have are better as a whole and in a system than I think they would work on their own.

Does Portland have a 1st round pick to trade again?

[Wizenheimer]

It's really hard to see what Memphis' plans are. Quite honestly, they are a team that should consider starting over. That team is really over the hill age wise and a reboot would serve them well. I think even if they could keep Conley and manage to keep everyone fairly healthy for the year, the West is going to get stronger. Portland's not going anywhere, Timberwolves are going to be a 40 win team by probably next year imo and you never know when the Pelicans may decide to have another random good season. The West is passing them by.

all true, the West my be in a bit of flux, but by and large, the flux seems upward or steady....while Memphis appears headed the wrong direction

Though as you mentioned, outbidding Portland on the trade market won't be exactly difficult for most teams. Blazers assets just aren't that appealing quiet honestly. The pieces the Blazers have are better as a whole and in a system than I think they would work on their own.

yeah, the best trade asset is CJ and we pretty much know Olshey won't shop him. And, with CJ headed for the final year of his rookie deal, his value might be declining. Plumlee is in the same boat with his deal. I hope Olshey doesn't agree to extensions with either player this summer. That would leave trade options open. Besides that, there's still the real possibility that the players will opt-out of the CBA in July 2017. In that case, there could be changes that would make those extensions real burdens.

I don't think Vonleh has much value outside Portland. That leaves Aminu and Davis. Both have upped their value in these playoffs, especially Aminu. Now, depending on what happens this off-season, it might be that Aminu becomes expendable and could bring back a decent return

but all-in-all, Portland's value in trade assets has to be toward the bottom of the league.

Does Portland have a 1st round pick to trade again?

right now, Portland has 2 firsts in 2018 that can be traded. They can't trade their 2017 first till after the coming draft. They have that 2018 Cleveland 1st, but if Lebron stays in Cleveland (very likely), that pick will probably be in the 27-30 range. Not a lot of value. Likewise, if the Blazers have a strong off-season, the value of their 1sts drops with the odds pointing toward picks in the 21-25 range. Blazers also have a scarcity of near-future 2nds. They don't own their own till 2019. Then they have a couple of 2nds and also Miami's 2021 second

Olshey essentially spent nine 2nd round picks on Lopez, TRob, and Crabbe and it's possible none will be Blazers after this season.

personally, I'd wonder if Olshey could convert that 2018 Cleveland 1st to a late first in this coming draft. It would only take 500-600K off of cap-space, and if Portland drafted well, the player could be helping Portland a whole lot earlier in Lillard's extension then a 2018 first. Blazers traded some cash in the Brian Roberts deal, but I'd imagine it wasn't anywhere close to the 3.5 million they can trade this season. Probably 100K just to make the trade legal. So that 2018 Cle 1st + 3.4 million might garner some interest. The clock on cash limits resets in July when it increases to 3.6 million. Trade-wise, the Blazers will be headed for a 'use-it-or-lose-it' deadline on 2015-16 cash. Of course, Paul Allen might have a different perspective on not-spending his 3.4 million

[Fitz303]

Olshey has made references in the past year or so about having assets to make a big move. I'm betting that this offseason he tries to sign a big name or 2, and if that fails, find some bargain signings, while tying up Crabbe, Harkless, and maybe Leonard long term. So he now has a bunch of young and talented players 26 years old or younger (McCollum, Aminu, Davis, Harkless, Crabbe, Vonleh, Leonard), who are all on long term deals, along with 1st rd picks, to be able to go out and make a splash for a disgruntled star who wants out. Much like he did when he got Paul in LA. I could definitely see him lining this offseason up for next years trade deadline or the 2017 offseason (Cousins, Griffin, etc...)

[Jsun947]

I think there will obviously be the free agent priorities, most of which we won't even get a meeting for, Durant, Lebron, Horford, etc. Then there will be a decision we have to make on a guy like Dwight Howard.

If we want him then can we get home to agree to a contract that starts at our remaining cap space without renouncing our free agents? (20-21 mil per)

Once he's on board you have to figure out what else to do. We can't have three of Howard, Plumlee, Davis, and Leonard on the team. The cap space is too valuable this off season and you can't play two of them together on the court more than a few seconds. On one hand Plumlee is the cheapest since hes on a rookie deal. On the other hand Plumlee and Davis with Howard are somewhat redundant. Leonard is a disaster in some areas but prevents vastly different skill sets from Howard. Being able to have him on the floor in certain situations is incredibly valuable. If we could resign Leonard for his cap hold or less I'd look at keeping him and trading Plumlee and Davis for future picks and cap space.

I'd look at using the newly found cap space for Leuer. I just love his fit on the team, especially next to Howard. Hopefully we can get him relatively cheap, like what we did with Aminu & Davis.

Afterwards I would look at Turner, and see if you can get him to agree to a contract with whatever cap space we have left + the space from renouncing Harkless.

Trading Plumlee for Howard, Davis for Leuer, and Harkless for Turner would be a huge win. Our team would be much, much better than last year.

Worst case scenario you have Howard and resign all our own guys we want. The trick is getting Howard at a reasonable price.

This same scenario would apply more or less to Whiteside as well.

[Wizenheimer]

Olshey has made references in the past year or so about having assets to make a big move. I'm betting that this offseason he tries to sign a big name or 2, and if that fails, find some bargain signings, while tying up Crabbe, Harkless, and maybe Leonard long term. So he now has a bunch of young and talented players 26 years old or younger (McCollum, Aminu, Davis, Harkless, Crabbe, Vonleh, Leonard), who are all on long term deals, along with 1st rd picks, to be able to go out and make a splash for a disgruntled star who wants out. Much like he did when he got Paul in LA. I could definitely see him lining this offseason up for next years trade deadline or the 2017 offseason (Cousins, Griffin, etc...)

you're assuming that Crabbe, Harkless, and Leonard will have positive trade value locked into long term deals. That's a risky assumption

to start with, it depends on how much they re-sign for. After what Meyers did and said about the last off-season, you have to assume he'll be looking for the biggest payday he can find. Probably all the free agents will. This is likely to be a stupid off-season for bloated contracts. Meyers and/or Crabbe on bloated deals won't have positive value. Harkless may be the only one of the three to end up with positive value on a deal because of the gap between where he is and what his potential ceiling is. Unfortunately, I think he's increased his coming contract during these playoffs. He's played and defended well

you need to sign players to bargain contracts, and usually, rookie extensions are not bargain contracts. 3rd contracts are and that's one reason why Aminu and Davis have good value

you're also confusing what assets Olshey used in the Paul trade with the assets he'd have next season. In that Paul trade, he had a big expiring contract (Chris Kaman) and two players on rookie contracts, not extensions (Eric Gordon & Aminu), and of course a lottery pick that ended up being the 10th pick. And at that time, Gordon had far more value then any of the Blazer RFA's will have next season. He was still on his rookie deal and the previous season had averaged 22 pts & 4.4 ast with a PER of 18.5, a TS% of .566 and a winshare/48 mark of .120. All those marks are better then what CJ did this season. Gordon and that lottery pick were far and above the kind of assets Olshey would have with Crabbe, Meyers, and a late 1st

honestly, I'd think this coming off-seasons may be the least likely off-season ever to expect to sign RFA's to positive value long-term deals. GM's will probably exercise less self-control then sharks in bloody water

[Wizenheimer]

Once he's on board you have to figure out what else to do. We can't have three of Howard, Plumlee, Davis, and Leonard on the team. The cap space is too valuable this off season and you can't play two of them together on the court more than a few seconds. On one hand Plumlee is the cheapest since hes on a rookie deal. On the other hand Plumlee and Davis with Howard are somewhat redundant. Leonard is a disaster in some areas but prevents vastly different skill sets from Howard. Being able to have him on the floor in certain situations is incredibly valuable. If we could resign Leonard for his cap hold or less I'd look at keeping him and trading Plumlee and Davis for future picks and cap space.
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what's the point?

you won't be signing Howard to play 22 minutes a game. 30 minutes at least. And the way the NBA has evolved, there would be very little opportunity to play Howard and Meyers together. Neither can go out and defend the stretch-4's and SF's and ultra-mobile PF's that most teams use these days. If either one could, it would be Dwight, not Meyers. And at least on offense, Dwight could punish an opponent inside for trying to guard him with a smaller player. Meyers can't punish anybody inside unless it's making another player feel guilty about dislocating his shoulder

for chrissakes, if the Blazers want a stretch-4, go get one who doesn't force the Blazer C's to defend out of position. It was getting ridiculous by mid-season watching Plumlee and Davis chase around after stretch-4's just so meyers could get playing time. Stotts had finally given up on the idea meyers could defend anybody on the perimeter

I swear, for me, one thing that would make the off-season successful would be Portland bidding adios to meyers

[Wizenheimer]

we've been talking about the Blazers needing another ball-handler

if Memphis waives Lance Stevenson, would he be an option Portland should consider?

[Jsun947]

Agreed Wiz, there is going to be a ton of money spent this offseason. I wouldn't be shocked if the spending gets so out of control that there are hardly any teams left with cap space next season compared to this one. Minny is an example of that. They'll have their top draft pick this year + Wiggins + Towns + Lavine making a combined total of around $24 mil of around $108 mil salary cap. If they wanted to and were able to get Pek and Rubio off their books they could have as much as 70 million in cap space.

2017 unrestricted free agents could include Curry, Griffin, Westbrook, and Lowry.

Can you imagine if Durant signed a 1 year deal with OKC and then him and Westbrook jumped ship to Minny?

Westbrook, Wiggins, Durant, Towns on the same team? Scary...

[Jsun947]

Lance is such a terrible chemistry guy and I just don't trust him to make good basketball decisions. He would have to come very very cheap with non-guaranteed and team options all over the place.

[Jsun947]

Once he's on board you have to figure out what else to do. We can't have three of Howard, Plumlee, Davis, and Leonard on the team. The cap space is too valuable this off season and you can't play two of them together on the court more than a few seconds. On one hand Plumlee is the cheapest since hes on a rookie deal. On the other hand Plumlee and Davis with Howard are somewhat redundant. Leonard is a disaster in some areas but prevents vastly different skill sets from Howard. Being able to have him on the floor in certain situations is incredibly valuable. If we could resign Leonard for his cap hold or less I'd look at keeping him and trading Plumlee and Davis for future picks and cap space.
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what's the point?

you won't be signing Howard to play 22 minutes a game. 30 minutes at least. And the way the NBA has evolved, there would be very little opportunity to play Howard and Meyers together. Neither can go out and defend the stretch-4's and SF's and ultra-mobile PF's that most teams use these days. If either one could, it would be Dwight, not Meyers. And at least on offense, Dwight could punish an opponent inside for trying to guard him with a smaller player. Meyers can't punish anybody inside unless it's making another player feel guilty about dislocating his shoulder

for chrissakes, if the Blazers want a stretch-4, go get one who doesn't force the Blazer C's to defend out of position. It was getting ridiculous by mid-season watching Plumlee and Davis chase around after stretch-4's just so meyers could get playing time. Stotts had finally given up on the idea meyers could defend anybody on the perimeter

I swear, for me, one thing that would make the off-season successful would be Portland bidding adios to meyers

Think about offensive possessions after a time out late in games where you can throw out a line-up like Lillard/CJ/Crabbe/Leuer/Leonard. There wouldn't be a single player you can leave at the 3 point line and that opens up a huge amount of driving space for Lillard & CJ.

I would hardly ever advocate for playing Howard & Leonard together, even for a few seconds.

Games where we're playing against guys like Drummond or Deandre having a combo of Howard and Leonard would be a huge advantage. You can play them straight up with Howard and if he gets in foul trouble you could pull them out of the paint with Leonard.

It just gives you a different look rather than more of the same.

[zzaj]

we've been talking about the Blazers needing another ball-handler

if Memphis waives Lance Stevenson, would he be an option Portland should consider?

All options should be considered if the price is right. Seems like Lance only plays well in a big minutes role and I don't know if he gets that here.

Honestly, this offseason has my head spinning. My one hope is that the Blazers ditch Meyers and pay to get into the late 1st/early 2nd to replace exiting players.

I fully expect to be underwhelmed by this offseason...especially given the gravity and financial purgatory of CJ and Plumlee's contracts looming next season.

[Norm2953]

Dwight Howard is likely going to be the one big we can hope to have a chance for, for its not
likely many teams are lining up to pay $25-30 Million for the guy who played for the Rockets this
season. Hopefully we can sign him for a shorter term deal with an opt out similar to what
Lebron signed for.