Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Wizenheimer]

Think about offensive possessions after a time out late in games where you can throw out a line-up like Lillard/CJ/Crabbe/Leuer/Leonard. There wouldn't be a single player you can leave at the 3 point line and that opens up a huge amount of driving space for Lillard & CJ.

I would hardly ever advocate for playing Howard & Leonard together, even for a few seconds.

Games where we're playing against guys like Drummond or Deandre having a combo of Howard and Leonard would be a huge advantage. You can play them straight up with Howard and if he gets in foul trouble you could pull them out of the paint with Leonard.

It just gives you a different look rather than more of the same.

I understand that but what you're talking about is a very small amount of actual playing time...maybe occurring in only 30 or 40 games for a couple of minutes on average. How much are you willing to pay meyers for that time?

it would be ok, I suppose, if meyers was on a 2 or 3 year, team-friendly deal for 3 or 4 million a year, at most. But he'll very likely make more then that. I think Portland can do much better for 7 or 8 million a year then Meyers

the problem is meyers is not a good defender, and he's not a good rebounder. I think we can conclude that him being allergic to the paint is a result of a half-dozen shoulder dislocations the last 3 years. That's only going to get worse. If meyers is the only big on the floor, the Blazers will get crushed on the boards, so him as the lone backup C doesn't make sense.

I've just seen the Blazers go thru too many roster contortions and 5 man unit contortions trying to accommodate all of the many weaknesses meyers has just because of his one strength....3 point shooting. I think Portland can find that strength in many players that actually can bring more to the floor then Meyers. Hell, they may have already found it with Aminu

[Case2012]

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/241862/Is-Luol-Deng-A-More-Valuable-Free-Agent-Than-DeMar-DeRozan

Interesting read. Deng is old and has a bad injury history but he would fit very well here and landing him and Howard would be an amazing offseason considering what Portland has never been able to do in free agency.

Lillard/ CJ
CJ/ Hendo OR Crabbe?
Aminu/ Harkless
Deng/ Davis
Howard/ Plumlee

The injuries are a major concern but on paper that looks like a team that could make noise.

[zzaj]

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/241862/Is-Luol-Deng-A-More-Valuable-Free-Agent-Than-DeMar-DeRozan

Interesting read. Deng is old and has a bad injury history but he would fit very well here and landing him and Howard would be an amazing offseason considering what Portland has never been able to do in free agency.

Lillard/ CJ
CJ/ Hendo OR Crabbe?
Aminu/ Harkless
Deng/ Davis
Howard/ Plumlee

The injuries are a major concern but on paper that looks like a team that could make noise.

Everyone should be considered.

I can see going after a Ryan Anderson, but if you are going to lose 10-50 games a season with a player being injured? I'd rather that player not be 31 and going into his 12th NBA year.

The problem with the 30 and over vets (and this CERTAINLY includes Dwight) is that they are likely to only produce a couple years worth of their big contracts. The Blazers could be strung out with an albatross contract right as Lillard will be hitting his prime years.

IMO, these types of players would make more sense if Lillard was 28, but not at 25.

Obviously, when determining who he's targeting there are too many constraints that are out of Olshey's control to easily satisfy the team's needs, so perhaps injury history is something that the team will have to live with. I just hope that it's a younger player that still has potential to get better or maintain their production when healthy.

-----------------

On a personal note, one of the great things about this season for me as a fan was how injury-free the team was. Not waiting around to see a full strength roster was a real plus...especially after years of teams decimated by injuries.

And make no mistake, a BIG reason why the Blazers were in any position to even make the playoffs was because they were largely injury free. Lillard's heel was the only big one and that came during a relatively soft time in the schedule. They could have very easily not made the post season with even one other big minute player missing a few games...

[zzaj]

Lillard/Sessions/GPIII
CJ/Courtney Lee
Aminu/Harkless
Anderson/Davis/Vonleh
Whiteside/Plumlee/Hammons

I know it's totally unrealistic, could never happen and would be way to expensive...but an interesting team.

[Wizenheimer]

On a personal note, one of the great things about this season for me as a fan was how injury-free the team was. Not waiting around to see a full strength roster was a real plus...especially after years of teams decimated by injuries.

And make no mistake, a BIG reason why the Blazers were in any position to even make the playoffs was because they were largely injury free. Lillard's heel was the only big one and that came during a relatively soft time in the schedule. They could have very easily not made the post season with even one other big minute player missing a few games...

I think that's a real important point:

Al-Farouq Aminu 82
Mason Plumlee 82
Allen Crabbe 81
Ed Davis 81
C.J. McCollum 80
Maurice Harkless 78
Noah Vonleh 78
Damian Lillard 75
Gerald Henderson 72

Henderson missed the most games, at the beginning of the season. I'm thinking that the 4 games each by Harkless and Vonleh were DNP-CD's

it's reminiscent of the 2013-14 season. The Blazers won 54 games and advanced to the 2nd round in a season when 4 of the 5 starters played every game

then, in the off-season, all that was done was to replace Mo Williams was add Steve Blake and Chris Kaman. I remember that a lot of people thought Portland could build on the previous season and not just repeat the success of the year before but eclipse it

some of us pointed at that incredible good health as maybe the biggest factor for what the Blazers did and counting on the same injury luck 2 years in a row was pretty unrealistic. That turned out to be the case

now, this year's team had better depth then last year's team, but just re-signing their own free agents would be courting the same type of disappointment as last season. The best news I've seen lately was that last interview with Olshey when it sounded like he was going to be aggressive in selling the Blazers to high-level free agents. The history is a bit of a downer but the free agent look has to turn sometime, doesn't it?

[zzaj]

The best news I've seen lately was that last interview with Olshey when it sounded like he was going to be aggressive in selling the Blazers to high-level free agents. The history is a bit of a downer but the free agent look has to turn sometime, doesn't it?

Maybe I'm just too much of a pessimist, and you're right it's certainly not BAD news but, really, what what else COULD Olshey have said? "We had a good year and blew away everyone's expectations so we're going to be very conservative this offseason."

Of course, he's going to say he'll aggressively try and make the team better. The real question of course is if he actually can. This particular crop of FAs, the league awash in cap space, PDX being a small market, Olshey's FA history, Olshey seemingly invested in going into Lillard's prime with two near MAX players that are both 6'3" with defensive limitations...

All this and more makes me think that the team could be worse next season. And IMO, one step backward might be the best thing for the franchise moving forward.

[Jsun947]

Think about offensive possessions after a time out late in games where you can throw out a line-up like Lillard/CJ/Crabbe/Leuer/Leonard. There wouldn't be a single player you can leave at the 3 point line and that opens up a huge amount of driving space for Lillard & CJ.

I would hardly ever advocate for playing Howard & Leonard together, even for a few seconds.

Games where we're playing against guys like Drummond or Deandre having a combo of Howard and Leonard would be a huge advantage. You can play them straight up with Howard and if he gets in foul trouble you could pull them out of the paint with Leonard.

It just gives you a different look rather than more of the same.

I understand that but what you're talking about is a very small amount of actual playing time...maybe occurring in only 30 or 40 games for a couple of minutes on average. How much are you willing to pay meyers for that time?

it would be ok, I suppose, if meyers was on a 2 or 3 year, team-friendly deal for 3 or 4 million a year, at most. But he'll very likely make more then that. I think Portland can do much better for 7 or 8 million a year then Meyers

the problem is meyers is not a good defender, and he's not a good rebounder. I think we can conclude that him being allergic to the paint is a result of a half-dozen shoulder dislocations the last 3 years. That's only going to get worse. If meyers is the only big on the floor, the Blazers will get crushed on the boards, so him as the lone backup C doesn't make sense.

I've just seen the Blazers go thru too many roster contortions and 5 man unit contortions trying to accommodate all of the many weaknesses meyers has just because of his one strength....3 point shooting. I think Portland can find that strength in many players that actually can bring more to the floor then Meyers. Hell, they may have already found it with Aminu

I think most of Meyers problem has been the fact that we forced him to play out of position. We've literally put him in the worst possible scenario to succeed. His rebounding doesn't strike me as bad when we actually have him playing center. His help defense is pretty bad but I think a lot of that stems from the fact that he's young, inexperienced, and confused. He'll get better with time. He has the physical tools. I think his man to man defense in the post is ok.

I wonder how many minutes he's played at the 5 with an actual PF. Its not many... Usually we forced him into the game with guys like Davis, Plumlee, and Lopez and tried to make him a stretch 4 on offense and defend wings and PF on defense.

[GreenRiddler]

I like Turner's ball handling and unselfishness. However I want him for the quotes, man does he have some good quotes. Lets sign him like day 1 midnight, Aminu style.

http://hoopshype.com/2016/03/15/the-best-evan-turner-quotes-ever/#slideIdslide-15

[Village Idiot]

I'm fully on-board with Howard. His inside presence would be a god-send to this team. I was watching some video of him and among other things, just two years ago he abused Robin Lopez showing a great variety of post moves. He's also a great roll man. He's certainly hungry and has a lot to prove.

I also like the Evan Turner idea for the rest of our probable cap-space. He's not a great shooter of defender but would be a great 3rd guard and creator.

I still think Terrence Jones is a great pick-up for us. His game was a horrible match for Houston/Harden but his cutting and 3pt shooting are quite good for a PF. He's another guy that needs to be engaged to do well. He's a willing passer and has size to defend the post and quickness to defend wings which will be useful given our propensity to trap.

If we get Howard I'd look to move Davis, even though I like the guy a lot.

If we can resign Leonard for cheap I'd do so. His skill-set is unique even if his basketball iq is piss poor.

Would love to resign two of Harkless/Crabbe/Henderson as well.

[Epicurus]

Kanter 4.5 shots per game within 5 ft, makes 77.8% of them. Plumlee, same number of shots per game within 5 ft, makes 46% of them. Kanter .8 shots per game between 5-9ft, makes 50%. Plumlee, 1.5 shots/gm from 5-9ft, makes 29.4%.

Not really an argument for Kanter to replace Plumleel but for a standard of efficiency when one has a shot around the basket. Plumlee must get better or sat down (albeit his assist/turnover ratio is much better than most bigs. Yet I hate seeing so many close range baskets missed).

[DaVoiceMaster]

I wonder if Ibaka is available due to Kanter? Ibaka was on the bench during crunch time I would make a run at him.

[Downtown]

I could live with Olshey signing Jokim Noah and Evan Turner and bringing back Tim Frazier, whom I think they traded just to reduce the roster in the Varejao trade. Play Aminu more at power forward alongside Noah, re-sign Harkless and use him more at small forward, and go from there. No $30mil offering to Howard or any other free agent although like thew rest of you I do feel that Horford is a perfect match but if I'm giving out a monster contract offer I want it to be to someone in the age bracket of the main core. I think you could get both Noah and Turner for the cost of Howard and likely less.

It's not sexy but I see good character guys that bring the same competitiveness level that this team developed this season. And from what see in Noah he is a solid compliment to Plumlee. He sets great screens, is an above average passer like Plumlee, and can hit a better range jumpshot and play grittier defence than Plumlee. I could see them being a solid combination at centre where both could play aggressively with split minutes.

Both would dovetail into Stotts coaching style in my opinion.

[Norm2953]

I do think NO will go trolling for a big this off season. The team is getting some good vibes
from their series with the GSW but it remains debatable whether the team is really that
close to really challenging the powers in the western conference. With higher expectations,
taking the next step will either come from signing a max FA or taking a step back and
hoping to draft the next star player.

[Wizenheimer]

I also like the Evan Turner idea for the rest of our probable cap-space. He's not a great shooter of defender but would be a great 3rd guard and creator.

he's certainly not a good shooter. That's proven. Of course, coming into this season, Al-Farouq Aminu was about at the same level of not-good shooting, career-wise, as Turner. Maybe Stotts and his offense can improve Turner's shooting enough to make playing him acceptable and then the Blazers would have his play-making

I don't know that he's not a good defender. He very well might be. He ranks well on the Celtics and they are an excellent defensive team. He was 3rd in defensive win shares and 4th in defensive box plus/minus

in any event, there's little doubt he's a much better defender then Lillard, CJ, or Crabbe

I still think Terrence Jones is a great pick-up for us. His game was a horrible match for Houston/Harden but his cutting and 3pt shooting are quite good for a PF. He's another guy that needs to be engaged to do well. He's a willing passer and has size to defend the post and quickness to defend wings which will be useful given our propensity to trap.

I'm really liking the Aminu/Harkless tandem at forwards. That's not to say that Portland shouldn't change it if a clear upgrade was available. Jones isn't a clear upgrade over Aminu. He does some things better then Aminu, but Aminu does some things better then Jones, including shooting three's, and we know those are available in a Stotts offense

If the Blazers actually do land a big name player, there wouldn't be enough cap-space for the big name, somebody like Turner, and Jones. Besides that, Jones is RFA and it would be real risky to tie up a sizable part of the cap-space for 3 days, and you know Morey will take the full 3 days to match or not match

If we get Howard I'd look to move Davis, even though I like the guy a lot.

I might be more inclined to move Plumlee just because his extension will kick in after next season. My guess is it will be cheaper to keep Davis

If we can resign Leonard for cheap I'd do so. His skill-set is unique even if his basketball iq is piss poor.

skill-set? He's 7' and he can shoot three's at a decent clip. That really seems to be the extent of his skills. He's a weak rebounder and defender. He's not a rim protector. He doesn't set good screens. He can't guard stretch-4's or mobile PF's and he can't punish them inside on offense. And he's got a bum shoulder. Portland should weight that shoulder issue like they would while considering any player with a significant injury history

Portland has Aminu, Harkless, & Vonleh. If they need somebody like Meyers to stretch the floor, there are stretch-4's available in free agency that wouldn't force the Blazer C's to go out of the perimeter, guard the opposing 4's, and be in poor rebounding position when the opponent shoots. Ryan Anderson, Marvin Williams, Jon Leuer, Mirza Teletovic, Ersan Illyasova...they're all UFA I believe. So are Al Horford, Nene, & David Lee. Because of his defensive limitations, Meyers is more of a stretch-5 then a stretch-4, and then, you might be paying him good money as a backup to Howard, if that happens

I'd really prefer Meyers on another team next season. If Portland re-signs him, I'd hope it was on a short-term, team-friendly contract for 5-6 million a year. And only after all other options for the cap-space his 7.7 million cap-hold are exhausted. If some team is foolish enough to offer Meyers 9-12 million a year, I'd hope Olshey lets him go

[Would love to resign two of Harkless/Crabbe/Henderson as well.

Harkless yes....Crabbe maybe, on the right deal of course

I've mentioned this before, but with Dame/CJ penciled in as the starting back-court-of-the-present-&-future, the 3rd guard in the rotation needs to be strong defensively, and a good play-maker. Crabbe is neither, and he's really not suited to the SF position. He's more of a specialist...a perimeter shooter. Now, good teams need specialists but probably not as 1st players off the bench. And I suspect Crabbe will get paid more then a specialist should. If the Blazers do add that defensive/play-making 3rd guard, Crabbe's minutes would be squeezed. How much is he worth in that case? Honest question...I really don't know

[Jsun947]

Asked about Leuer on the Phoenix forum...

Some comments from posters.

"He is a smart player who is very good at the little things...a team player. Can make the right pass, fight for rebounds, hit 3s, etc."

"I personally think it was silly not to play Leuer more."

"I would've preferred to play Leuer more because of his rebounding, better defensive abilities and youth. He also managed to score at a respectable .48FG% clip. "

"I would love to see him return to the team. I think his age and abilities would be a good fit for this team going forward while not costing too much."

"I like them both for different reasons, but both have range...Telly a bit better from distance but Leuer better at almost everything else. Rebounding, blocks, steals, assists, etc."

"IMO he is a very good passer. He is very good at the little things and seems like a high IQ player."

"Leuer has great fundamentals and at times played like Kevin Love light."

"Leuer is a better athlete and a more functional all-around player. (Than Telly)"

"But then one needs to consider defense, where Teletovic totally falls apart, whereas Leuer holds his own."

"Leuer can put the ball on the floor and make a nice move to the hole in space as a sort of pseudo-slasher. He also cuts and moves pretty well without the ball (largely a lost art in today's NBA), he runs the floor hard, he is fundamentally sound, he takes nothing for granted (meaning that he has a nose for the ball, especially around the hoop), and he is a little more athletic than one might imagine (or that one may stereotype him as given that he is a a 6'9" or 6'10" white guy). His footwork is pretty good, too. He reminds me a little of Pete Chilcutt, who started for Houston during most of the Rockets' 1995 playoff run (which culminated in a championship), except that Leuer may be more athletic. Of course, Leuer is untested in terms of high-stress situations, but his fundamental soundness and willingness to play hard and run the floor hard at all times bode well for him. Like Chilcutt in Houston, Leuer would probably look even better with better players around him. Like Chilcutt, he may need to land in the right spot at the right time to make any kind of noticeable impact, but like Chilcutt, he could fill a nice niche."

[Dangeruss]

ANy chance above zero that Lillard takes a small contract restructure so that we can bring in two maxes and retain most of our corps pieces?

[Wizenheimer]

ANy chance above zero that Lillard takes a small contract restructure so that we can bring in two maxes and retain most of our corps pieces?

I think the agreement in place is a binding contract with just the specific starting point...maximum...to be determined after the BRI is calculated. Terms, conditions, percentages, deferrals, & incentives are likely all specified

now, maybe, if both sides agree to restructure, that might be possible but I'd imagine the NBA office already has a copy of the contract and that may be binding.

as far as making room for 2 max deals, my quick math tells me Lillard would have to knock 6-7 million off of his 1st year salary. He'd be abandoning close to 40 million dollars. I wouldn't expect him to do that...he doesn't seem stupid

besides, I seriously doubt any small market team can afford 3 max contracts, and there would still be CJ to account for

[DaVoiceMaster]

I think the days of restructuring a contract are gone.

[Fitz303]

In listening to the exit interviews, I'd be surprised if Henderson was back next year. He certainly said all of the right things, but you can tell that if a real playoff team offers him a chance to start, he's gonna take it. Though, I'm not sure if that team exists

[Ripcity4life]

I like Henderson but the Blazers i think have to decide on either Crabbe OR Henderson and maybe to a degree Hark. If i am the GM it's a tough decision cause each player have there own strengths and weaknesses and most do not overlap each other making it tougher.

The order of importance of re-signing in my opinion is -- Hark , Crabbe and then Henderson but i will admit Hark and crabbe are neck and neck with i believe Hark's D giving him a slight edge.