'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[NyCeEvO]

Wow, Leonard and James were neck to neck.

Now to dig into this:

http://official.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2016/04/2015-16-Most-Valuable-Player.pdf

Mike Fratello and John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com had Draymond in 2nd place.

It would be interesting to see what arguments they made over for Green over Kawhi and LBJ.

[RSCD3_]

Nothing too shocking to me.

1 Guy put Lowry at 4 and didnt have Kawhi in his top 5. Another person put Harden at 4 over Westbrook.

Marc spears probably takes the cake by having Lilliard #3 behind WB and Curry

[SideshowBob]

2016 Oklahoma City Thunder In/Out Splits (82 G, 53-29)

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Durant In/Out - Russ/Ibaka/Waiteres/Adams/Roberson Control (61 G) (Kanter missed no games)

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Control | (61 G, 44-17)

+8.28 SRS, +7.5 Offense, -1.2 Defense

114.1 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +8.7 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Durant OUT | (6 G, 3-3)

-6.12 SRS, -3.2 Offense, +0.1 Defense

104.4 ORTG, 104.9 DRTG, -3.3 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Durant IN | (55 G, 41-14)

+9.85 SRS, +8.7 Offense, -1.3 Defense

115.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +10.0 Adjusted Net

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Raw Griffin IN/OUT

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Durant IN | (72 G, 52-20)

+8.60 SRS, +8.4 Offense, -0.4 Defense

115.0 ORTG, 106.0 DRTG, +8.8 Adjusted Net

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Durant OUT | (10 G, 3-7)

-3.82 SRS, -1.7 Offense, +1.6 Defense

104.9 ORTG, 107.5 DRTG, -3.3 Adjusted Net

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Dunno if there's anything to make of the Dion In/Out comparison, pretty small controlled sample for Dion OUT. Dion IN set is the same as the one that was already listed.

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Russ, Durant, Ibaka, Adams, Roberson IN | Dion OUT | (4 G, 2-2)

+10.25 SRS, +5.5 Offense, -6.8 Defense

110.7 ORTG, 101.7 DRTG

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Russ, Durant, Ibaka, Adams, Roberson IN | Dion IN | (55 G, 41-14)

+9.85 SRS, +8.7 Offense, -1.3 Defense

115.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +10.0 Adjusted Net

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Morrow/Payne IN + All Else IN, Durant IN/OUT

Also really small and controlled sample - I wouldn't take too much from this other than OKC w/Durant is really good on offense.

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All IN + Morrow, Payne IN | Durant OUT | (4 G, 2-2)

-7.11 SRS, -3.3 Offense, +0.9 Defense

103.7 ORTG, 105.5 DRTG, -4.3 Adjusted Net

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All IN + Morrow, Payne IN | Durant IN | (27 G, 25-2 :O )

+14.29 SRS, +11.8 Offense, -3.1 Defense

119.4 ORTG, 102.4 DRTG, +14.8 Adjusted Net (watch out GSW)


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Everyone else IN, Morrow IN/OUT & Payne IN/OUT (they are included in the "everyone else"). All IN sample is the same as above, so what we're really looking at here is how OKC performs when you take either Payne or Morrow out.

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All IN | (31 G, 27-4)

+14.29 SRS, +11.8 Offense, -3.1 Defense

119.4 ORTG, 102.4 DRTG, +14.8 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Payne OUT | (18 G, 10-8)

+1.69 SRS, +2.8 Offense, +1.0 Defense

108.6 ORTG, 107.4 DRTG, +1.8 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Morrow OUT | (8 G, 7-1)

+14.35 SRS, +9.3 Offense, -5.5 Defense

114.9 ORTG, 101.1 DRTG, +14.8 Adjusted Net

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[Doctor MJ]

Thoughts on Kawhi, Westbrook, and Durant as POY candidates following their series?

[bondom34]

Thoughts on Kawhi, Westbrook, and Durant as POY candidates following their series?

I was onboard with Kawhi jumping to 2 (I had Westbrook there) and Durant maybe falling out if OKC lost. Now? I have no idea where I am overall, but I think I'm back to where I started w/ Westbrook 2, Kawhi 3, Durant 5 with room to move around. Lebron at 4 with room to move up as well. I don't think I put Paul in the top 5 at this point given the first round, and Green's the only guy on the outside I think has a shot to move in.

HM to Paul George as well.

[Quotatious]

Thoughts on Kawhi, Westbrook, and Durant as POY candidates following their series?

I was onboard with Kawhi jumping to 2 (I had Westbrook there) and Durant maybe falling out if OKC lost. Now? I have no idea where I am overall, but I think I'm back to where I started w/ Westbrook 2, Kawhi 3, Durant 5 with room to move around. Lebron at 4 with room to move up as well. I don't think I put Paul in the top 5 at this point given the first round, and Green's the only guy on the outside I think has a shot to move in.

HM to Paul George as well.

I have the exact same top 5 - Curry #1, Westbrook #2, Leonard #3, James #4, Durant #5. Everything except Curry at 1 is wide open discussion, between those four guys, and maybe Green (although I don't expect Draymond to be in my top 5 in the end). I like the way you think.

[lorak]

My top 3 for now is Curry, LJ and Green. CP would definitely be in top 5. So one spot left for Kawhi or Westbrook, unless Durant will do something impressive in WCF or F.

[HeartBreakKid]

Thoughts on Kawhi, Westbrook, and Durant as POY candidates following their series?

'I had Leonard outside of my top 5 for a couple of months, so that hasn't changed. Durant and Westbrook are influx, but both are in top 5.

[bondom34]

Thoughts on Kawhi, Westbrook, and Durant as POY candidates following their series?

'I had Leonard outside of my top 5 for a couple of months, so that hasn't changed. Durant and Westbrook are influx, but both are in top 5.

Who are the other 2, CP and Lebron or is someone else in?

[mikejames23]

I have had Westbrook at #2 all year, but now I am willing to move this a bit. I love the way he takes over, takes charge, etc... but really, at the end of the day, inefficient play is inefficient play -and really, I am not a super efficiency nut, but this is pretty glaring. I actually felt Kawhi was not worse than Westbrook this series, though I might be on an island there. Mostly because Westbrook has that aura of pure dominance that Kawhi can't seem to capture. Basically his intangibles with dominance and emotional leadership somehow ascend Kawhi's play ( ? ). There's no doubt he's got that killer instinct or Batman mentality, I am just wondering how many players could've done better with as many possessions as Westbrook consumed in this series.

I will not knock Kawhi for this series. As I have stated earlier, this came down to everyone outside of the 4. Waiters, Kanter, Adams, etc. was simply better than the Spurs not named Kawhi/LMA (though I do wish LMA rebounded better, at times). The 2016 LeBron comparison for Kawhi is deserved, but obviously not prime LeBron. Westbrook deserves some closer analyzing and scrutinizing. I might have to replay this entire series.

Durant's amazing when healthy and still amazing. His closing game killer scoring was pretty out of the world. He did struggle for a couple games, but overall this has been a good series for him. Someone listed his closing game numbers earlier and they seemed fairly out of the world. Dirk's spiritual successor in that sense.

[HeartBreakKid]

Thoughts on Kawhi, Westbrook, and Durant as POY candidates following their series?

'I had Leonard outside of my top 5 for a couple of months, so that hasn't changed. Durant and Westbrook are influx, but both are in top 5.

Who are the other 2, CP and Lebron or is someone else in?

James and CP3, yes. I think James likely ends up 2 this season.

[therealbig3]

I definitely slept on the Thunder, but when people brought up how SA was evenly matched with GS, I always pointed to how mortal SA's top lineups were in comparison to GS's...and I guess if people paid more attention to the Thunder, it would have been common knowledge that their top lineups have been better than SA's this year as well.

That matters in the playoffs, and it's something that simply looking at a team's overall performance won't tell you. The Spurs were very clearly a level below the Thunder and the Warriors when you look at their best units. Your 9th and 10th players being NBA-caliber players really isn't that big of a deal come playoff time.

[mischievous]

I'd like to know what Paul's case over Westbrook or Kd is, especially when we consider he got hurt in the postseason and cost his team the series. That gets swept under the rug, but that's nothing new, he always gets a hall pass.

[HeartBreakKid]

I'd like to know what Paul's case over Westbrook or Kd is, especially when we consider he got hurt in the postseason and cost his team the series. That gets swept under the rug, but that's nothing new, he always gets a hall pass.

I mean if we're talking swept under the rug, then isn't Curry getting injured getting swept under the rug merely because his team won in the first round(which literally has nothing to do with Curry's impact)? If Curry's injury had happened at the start of the 2nd round as opposed to the end of the 1st round, then how is that any different from CP3s injury? All that is saying is that CP3's team is trash without him while a team like the Warriors are decent enough to get a few wins. Also, Blake Griffin did not play for the Clippers, so I'm not sure how that is omitted from the equation.

I hope you know that at this point, Stephen Curry and Chris Paul have both played the same amount of PS games despite the fact that it is round 3, and that's including two games where Curry played 18 minutes each (since he got injured in those). In other words, CP3 has played more than Stephen Curry has at this point (125 minutes to 111 minutes). Where is the argument for Durant/Westbrook over Curry? Curry just has a better story because his team is winning.


I mean in a 4 game sample size (which is the length of a series), even with him getting injured in game 4 in a game where he was scoring on Portland at will (scored all of the Clippers first quarter points that game), his numbers still beat both Durant and Westbrook's playoff numbers are still significantly better (you could make an argument that he even blows them away) and that goes true even if you used the best splits possible for either Durant or Westbrook. I mean there are games where Durant played like total garbage, on a lesser team that could have totally cost a series, so how do you evaluate that?

Also, CP3 had an insanely underrated RS, and carried his team to a really good record despite not having a roster all that talented. So yes, CP3 only has a 4 game sample size (two POY candidates last year had the same amount of post season games or less) and a great RS, but I don't think it is an automatic given that he is worse than the OKC duo. A 20/10 basketball savant getting ranked in the top 5 is hardly a pass. I've seen people use the health argument against CP3 last year despite him playing over 90 games, so let's be realistic here, he gets a lot of flack for getting injured, even if he just happens to get injured at the wrong time.

[mischievous]

I'd like to know what Paul's case over Westbrook or Kd is, especially when we consider he got hurt in the postseason and cost his team the series. That gets swept under the rug, but that's nothing new, he always gets a hall pass.

I mean if we're talking swept under the rug, then isn't Curry getting injured getting swept under the rug merely because his team won in the first round(which literally has nothing to do with Curry's impact)? If Curry's injury had happened at the start of the 2nd round as opposed to the end of the 1st round, then how is that any different from CP3s injury? All that is saying is that CP3's team is trash without him while a team like the Warriors are decent enough to get a few wins. Also, Blake Griffin did not play for the Clippers, so I'm not sure how that is omitted from the equation.

I hope you know that at this point, Stephen Curry and Chris Paul have both played the same amount of PS games despite the fact that it is round 3, and that's including two games where Curry played 18 minutes each (since he got injured in those). In other words, CP3 has played more than Stephen Curry has at this point (125 minutes to 111 minutes). Where is the argument for Durant/Westbrook over Curry? Curry just has a better story because his team is winning.


I mean in a 4 game sample size (which is the length of a series), even with him getting injured in game 4 in a game where he was scoring on Portland at will (scored all of the Clippers first quarter points that game), his numbers still beat both Durant and Westbrook's playoff numbers are still significantly better (you could make an argument that he even blows them away) and that goes true even if you used the best splits possible for either Durant or Westbrook. I mean there are games where Durant played like total garbage, on a lesser team that could have totally cost a series, so how do you evaluate that?

Also, CP3 had an insanely underrated RS, and carried his team to a really good record despite not having a roster all that talented. So yes, CP3 only has a 4 game sample size (two POY candidates last year had the same amount of post season games or less) and a great RS, but I don't think it is an automatic given that he is worse than the OKC duo. A 20/10 basketball savant getting ranked in the top 5 is hardly a pass. I've seen people use the health argument against CP3 last year despite him playing over 90 games, so let's be realistic here, he gets a lot of flack for getting injured, even if he just happens to get injured at the wrong time.

I mean yeah, i am factoring in Curry's injury to some degree, if they would've lost it would've hurt him big time. Even still, the fact that he had a top 10 or so regular season all time is a pretty big deal.

Through the regular season the consensus top 5 were in some order mine being, Curry, Westbrook, Lebron, KD, Leonard. Now i'm seeing Paul pop in top 5s, which was hardly the case in the regular season. I had him 6th in the regular season, and my rank for him doesn't change despite getting hurt. Just in hindsight i can't see how you put him over some of those guys when he was already behind in the regular season and doesn't gain ground from the playoffs.

[kayess]

I think that more than anyone else, Westbrook will determine how this series will play out - he has the most variability of the 6 or so highest impact guys from both teams. If he saves some of his motor to ensure that he's playing great D, slows down the pace on O for his drives + Durant's shooting to dictate in the half court, OKC has more than a puncher's chance of winning.

If he shoots 10-31 and plays WOAT D, Thunder get crushed by 30+. If he does the above, then I think the Thunder can win all their games at home - can they steal one at Oracle, though?

Here's hoping for a great series.

[bondom34]

I think its Westbrook and (bizarrely) Waiters.

[Prince_Vegeta]

Very interesting year. Thoughts on the individual contenders:

-Stephen Curry: the unanimous MVP is the most divisive player of all this year. How the Warriors perform in the next two rounds is crucial in determining where he finishes. A part of me feels like since he's basically come back 100% with 40 and 29/11, the injury really doesn't matter. If he plays like that next round and they lose, it won't matter, he'll still be no. 1 on my list. If he plays poorly and they lose, I will have an issue because his Playoffs will then have little to no value between missed games and bad games. I can't see him playing poorly and the Warriors winning, and obviously if he kills it and they win he'll be soaring above anyone else.

-Russell Westbrook: Favorite for no. 2 on my list. Insane regular season, still killing it in the Playoffs. Poor series efficiency wise against the Spurs but production was still insane, and helped jumpstart KD's Playoffs. A win over the Warriors with him playing well and Curry playing badly starts to give him a case for no. 1 but there is not much chance of that happening because KD is going to be just as key in the next two rounds. Unless KD takes over like crazy and he plays badly or LeBron heats up for the last two rounds I see him nestled comfortably at 2.

-LeBron James: He's the one I think has a shot at the no. 1 if Curry drops out. Two ways it could happen: Curry plays badly, Warriors lose, and LeBron outplays both WB and Durant in the Finals, or Curry plays badly, Warriors still win (a little unlikely), and LeBron plays out of his mind in the Finals. So his chances are not that good again, not too much better than Westbrook's anyway, simply because Curry doesn't look to play badly. He could move up to 2 if OKC loses, Westbrook has a bad series, and he kills it individually in the last 2 rounds.

-Kevin Durant: No chance at 1 IMO. Very hard to see him at 2 either because Westbrook has been better the whole year IMO. He'd have to go nuclear the last 2 series and Westbrook would have to really suck for him to have a chance, and if Westbrook sucks then they probably don't make the Finals anyway. If he kills the last 2 rounds and outplays LeBron in the finals I could see him moving up to 3 (with Westbrook having an outside shot at 1 at the same time).

-Chris Paul: He was my 5 at the start of the RS and until he got hurt. Not so sure where that puts him now because my no. 6 Kawhi obviously had a better Playoffs but I'm not sure if it bridges the RS gap for me. If it does Kawhi will move into 5. I will have to think about this obviously.

-Kawhi Leonard: see above. I am not as impressed with him as other posters. CP is so so so far ahead on offense along with being a super elite defender in his own right. Kawhi is a superstar on defense but his offensive skillset is still low-level All Star, if that. And for a perimeter player that is not good.

That's my top 6, with the scenarios of how it could change. As of now I expect it to stay in the order I posted it. Thunder beating the Warriors could change a lot.

I don't think anyone else should be in consideration. Green is great but he's simply not top 5 worthy, I do believe people aren't giving Klay enough credit for how well the Warriors played without Steph (no.1 in Playoffs ppg)!

[lorak]

I'd like to know what Paul's case over Westbrook or Kd is, especially when we consider he got hurt in the postseason and cost his team the series. That gets swept under the rug, but that's nothing new, he always gets a hall pass.

For me being injured doesn't matter if player doesn't miss more than ~half RS games (Bill Walton rule). It's just random thing, which player can't affect. What matters is level of play and CP definitely has strong case for top 5.

[Doctor MJ]

So just some scattered thoughts right now:

-Regarding Curry & Paul's injuries, and Curry having the good fortune that his team could win without him. Yeah, there's no one right way to treat injuries in a POY discussion. My guiding principle tends to be that if some missed time ends up being irrelevant to what was key about the season, then I don't think it makes sense to fixate on it too far. That doesn't mean I'm going to ignore Curry's injury, I honestly don't intend to decide until the end of the playoffs. With Paul though, it did quite clearly limit what he could accomplish this season and while I'm not going to throw his name out of consideration, clearly the playoffs have helped Westbrook & Durant more than Paul, and before the playoffs those 3 guys were in a debate in my head in a way they weren't with Curry.

I'll also add that Curry is fortunate that his team could win without him...but this is also to some degree the perk of being so utterly dominant all through the regular season. The Warriors could have rested Curry like crazy, they didn't in part because they valued what was being accomplished.

Of course if you believe that Paul or someone else actually is the superior player and just is unlucky with context that would change your view quite a bit, but I'm more impressed with Curry and I also think his style of play is better suited to good portability even on elite teams than Paul's control-freak style of play.

-My first instinct after seeing OKC wax the Spurs is to move Westbrook and Durant ahead of Kawhi. My next thought is that's exactly what RINGZ thinking is and I need to think more thoroughly about it. It's tough because I absolutely believe that someone who is less of an individual scoring threat can be more valuable than such scorers, but it's hard to feel that confident in a specific case when you just saw the problem with relying on his scoring side by side with those other guys.

-As much as I defend Pop from those saying he's been exposed, losing that series that way probably kills his COY candidacy.

-I'm going to be so interested in seeing how Golden State tries to combat OKC's tall trees. This has the potential to be a really insightful contrast of styles.